汽零业务稳健，布局机器人和低空新赛道 富维股份(600742) 富维股份首次覆盖 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | 本报告导读： 汽零主业保持稳健增长；同时布局人形机器人和低空经济领域业务 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 20,766 | 19,636 | 20,872 | 22,062 | 23,165 | | (+/-)% | 4.0% | -5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 521 | 509 | 630 | 699 | 775 | | (+/-)% | -4.4% | -2.3% | 23.8% | 10.9% | 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 3.954 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 14.91% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.35%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 27.10% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.07% [1][5]. - The Q3 performance was below expectations, primarily due to short-term pressure on gross margins from the consolidation of seating business and intensified industry competition. Looking ahead, the company is expanding its product categories and enhancing its seating business, which is expected to improve average selling prices (ASP) and accelerate overseas project rollouts [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 3.954 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 14.91% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.35%. For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 11.413 billion RMB, up 18.83% year-over-year, while net profit was 623 million RMB, down 9.19% year-over-year [1][2]. - The Q3 gross margin was under pressure at 15.64%, down 5.71% year-over-year and 1.20 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to the consolidation of Anhui Ruqi and increased competition [3]. Business Segmentation - Revenue from various segments in H1 2025 included: instrument panels (4.359 billion RMB), door panels (0.554 billion RMB), and seats (0.43 billion RMB), with notable growth in door panels (67%) and bumpers (119%) [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a globalization strategy, with recent investments in Slovakia and the establishment of subsidiaries in Germany and the USA to expand its market presence [4]. - The company is also diversifying its product offerings, particularly in the seating sector, and has announced a 100 million RMB investment to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on robotics, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 16.149 billion RMB, 19.413 billion RMB, and 23.470 billion RMB, reflecting decreases of 5.41%, 7.31%, and 2.93% respectively. Net profit estimates for the same period are 957 million RMB, 1.259 billion RMB, and 1.608 billion RMB, with reductions of 16.75%, 18.50%, and 13.30% respectively [5][10]. - The target price has been raised to 87.87 RMB based on a 35.6 times PE ratio for 2026, up from a previous target of 59.77 RMB [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook for the US, with expectations of a government shutdown resolution and a potential interest rate cut in December, impacting market liquidity and stock performance [4][15][19] - The A-share market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with a focus on three main investment themes: dividend recovery, economic recovery, and technology themes benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][21] - The report identifies ten key stocks for November, including companies in the new energy, automotive, power equipment, fixed income, and pharmaceutical sectors, with no specific ranking [3][12][19] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan in guiding future development directions, particularly in technology self-reliance, domestic consumption, and new energy [17][18] - The performance of the A-share market has shown volatility, with a significant portion of public fund holdings in the TMT sector, leading to potential profit-taking pressures [21][19] - The report provides detailed financial forecasts for selected companies, indicating expected revenue and profit growth across various sectors, including new energy and automotive [22][39][45]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ) reported mixed results in its Q3 earnings, with a significant profit increase in Q3 due to the divestiture of loss-making European operations, but a nearly 90% drop in net profit for the first three quarters, raising concerns about meeting annual performance targets [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 19.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was about 88.73 million yuan, a decrease of 87.68% [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, was 1.07 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.89% [2][4]. Q3 Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.35 billion yuan, a decline of 3.01% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.27% [4]. - The increase in Q3 net profit was primarily due to the sale of European operations, which reduced losses, and a rapid adjustment in the company's own brand production [4]. Business Strategy and Investments - The company is focusing on traditional production capacity in its recent 2.92 billion yuan fundraising, with limited investment in emerging sectors like robotics, raising questions about the necessity of capacity expansion and strategic direction [1][9]. - The fundraising will support projects including intelligent manufacturing in Wuhu, a production base for automotive interior parts in Chongqing, and a research and development center [9]. Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rates for various subsidiaries are low, with the Ningbo Interior System at 57.61% and Ningbo Lawrence at 51.52%, indicating underutilization of resources [8][9]. - The company’s main product lines, particularly interior components, have consistently accounted for over 50% of total revenue, yet the current capacity utilization does not support aggressive expansion plans [9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has entered the robotics sector later than competitors, and the current investment strategy does not heavily favor this area, leaving its future market position uncertain [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 semi-annual results, showing a revenue of 7.459 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 422 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.80% [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.19% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.02% [3][4]. - The Q2 2025 gross margin was 16.84%, a decrease of 2.66 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to price reductions from downstream customers [4]. Customer Performance - Major customers' performance in Q2 2025 included Tesla with global deliveries of 384,100 units (up 14.32% quarter-on-quarter), Geely with wholesale of 703,900 units (essentially flat), Chery with wholesale of 613,800 units (up 2.28%), and Li Auto with wholesale of 111,100 units (up 19.59%) [4]. Cost and Expense Management - The company reported a period expense ratio of 9.98% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The breakdown of expenses included sales at 0.62%, management at 5.10%, R&D at 4.33%, and financial expenses at -0.07% [4]. Product Development and Global Strategy - The company has a competitive advantage in cost control and service response for dashboard and door panel products, with deep ties to quality customers like Geely, Chery, and international electric vehicle companies. The market share of these products continues to rise [5][6]. - The company is expanding into new product categories, including exterior parts and seats, which is expected to enhance the per-vehicle value [6]. - The company is advancing its globalization strategy with operations in Mexico, Slovakia, Germany, and the United States, aiming to become a leading global automotive trim supplier [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 1.088 billion yuan, 1.350 billion yuan, and 1.663 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.23 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.41 yuan. The P/E ratios are projected to be 22.37x, 18.03x, and 14.63x [7]. - The company is maintaining a "buy" rating due to its position as a leading domestic interior parts supplier and its accelerated global development [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 59.77 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 74.59 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.01%, and a net profit of RMB 4.22 billion, up 2.80% year-over-year. Q2 revenue reached RMB 39.40 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 26.41% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.97% [1][2]. - The company is expanding its product categories and accelerating its seating layout, which is expected to enhance the average selling price (ASP) of its products. Additionally, overseas projects are anticipated to ramp up [1][4]. Revenue Summary - In Q2, the company’s core clients, including Tesla and BYD, saw production increases of 7.01%, 5.63%, and 1.85% respectively, contributing to the company's revenue growth [2]. - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows significant growth in various segments, with dashboard and bumper revenues increasing by 67% and 119% year-over-year respectively. The newly acquired seating business also contributed to revenue growth [2]. Profitability Summary - The gross margin in Q2 was 16.84%, reflecting a decline due to intense industry competition and the integration of the newly acquired Anhui Ruqi, which reported a net loss of RMB 10.84 million in H1 [3]. - The company maintained a high level of R&D expenses at RMB 170 million in Q2, indicating ongoing investment in new technologies and processes [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of globalization and product diversification, with overseas revenue increasing by 10.55 percentage points to 19.78% in H1. The Mexican factory reported a revenue of RMB 9.62 billion, up 195.5% year-over-year [4]. - The acquisition of Anhui Ruqi has allowed the company to enter the seating market, further expanding its growth potential [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 171 billion, RMB 209 billion, and RMB 242 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 11.50 billion, RMB 15.45 billion, and RMB 18.54 billion [5]. - The target price of RMB 59.77 is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25.3 for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of RMB 57.26 [5].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 7.459 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.01% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 422 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.80% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.940 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.97% [1] Group 2 - The performance in Q2 2025 was below expectations, with pressure on gross margin levels [1] - Tesla delivered 384,100 vehicles globally in Q2 2025, indicating a significant market activity [1] - The company is expanding its new product offerings and accelerating its globalization strategy, maintaining competitive advantages in cost control and service response [1] Group 3 - The company has established deep partnerships with high-quality clients such as Geely, Chery, and international electric vehicle companies, leading to a continuous increase in market share [1] - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates of 1.088 billion yuan, 1.350 billion yuan, and 1.663 billion yuan respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 39.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.41%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.19% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.02% [7] - The company's gross margin in Q2 2025 was 16.84%, a decrease of 2.66 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to price reductions from downstream customers [7] - The company is expanding its product offerings and accelerating its globalization strategy, with significant competitive advantages in cost control and service responsiveness [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 74.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.01%, and a net profit of 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.80% [7] - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 17.02 billion yuan, 20.26 billion yuan, and 23.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10.88 billion yuan, 13.50 billion yuan, and 16.63 billion yuan [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 2.23 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.41 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.37, 18.03, and 14.63, respectively [7]

Summary of Changshu Automotive Interior's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Changshu Automotive Interior - **Industry**: Automotive parts manufacturing Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Decreased by 29.71% to 174 million yuan in H1 2025, impacted by increased R&D expenses, reduced investment income from joint ventures, and unprofitable new factories [2][4] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Decreased by 43% to 87.92 million yuan [2][4] - **Revenue**: Increased by 17.18% to 2.78 billion yuan [4] - **Earnings Per Share**: Decreased by 14.93% to 0.57 yuan [4] - **Return on Equity**: Decreased by 0.82 percentage points to 4.15% [4] New Energy Business - **Proportion of Revenue**: New energy business exceeded 50% for the first time, reaching 51.15%, up from 32.50% in 2024 [2][5] - **Major Clients**: Include Chery (approximately 35% of revenue), Leap Motor, Tesla, NIO, BYD, BAIC Blue Valley, and Xiaomi [2][5][6] Overseas Market Expansion - **Hungary Base**: Construction expected to complete by June 2026 [2][7] - **Spain Factory**: Received new orders and actively pursuing other overseas project quotes [2][7] New Factory Developments - **New Bases**: Established in Zhaoqing, Dalian, Hefei, Anqing, and Jinhua, with Dalian and Anqing already profitable [2][8] - **Future Plans**: Construction of Jiangbei factory planned [2][8] Digital Technology Advancements - **Technological Improvements**: Implementation of SAP MES system to enhance modular design, integrated engineering design, and mold automation, improving project development efficiency and reducing costs [2][9] Collaboration with Leap Motor - **Revenue from Cooperation**: Yuyuan base generated 300 million yuan; Jinhua base expected to start production by year-end with projected sales of 800-1,000 million yuan [2][10] - **Modular Supply Model**: Enhancing vehicle value through exclusive supply of modular products [2][10][13] Factory Operations - **Profitability Status**: Dalian and Anqing bases profitable; Zhaoqing and Hefei facing losses but expected to improve with new projects [2][11][12] - **Sales Performance**: Yuyuan, Dalian, and Anqing bases achieved breakeven and profitability, with significant sales figures [2][11] Future Profitability Expectations - **Focus on New Factories**: Zhaoqing, Hefei, and Jinhua are key targets for profitability in H2 2025 [2][12] Joint Venture Performance - **Joint Venture Earnings**: Weak performance in Q1 2025 but recovery in Q2; new clients like Xiaopeng and GAC contributing to improved operational capacity [2][18] New Business Directions - **Exploration of New Materials**: Focus on smart cockpit modules and industrial automation, with plans to develop new materials and technologies [2][23][24] Industry Outlook - **Impact of New Energy Vehicles**: Positive outlook on the integration of new energy and automotive innovations, with a commitment to developing new products to meet evolving customer demands [2][28]

Summary of New Spring Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - New Spring Co., Ltd. has undergone four development stages since its establishment: - 2011-2015: Stable revenue between 500 million to 1 billion CNY - 2016-2017: Revenue growth from 1 billion to approximately 3 billion CNY, benefiting from strong performance of Geely and SAIC's self-owned models - 2018-2020: Revenue stagnation in the range of 3 billion to 3.5 billion CNY - 2021-2024: Revenue growth driven by increased penetration of new energy vehicles and rising market share of self-owned brands, expected to exceed 13 billion CNY [1][2][5] Market Share and Profitability - Market share of passenger car dashboards increased from approximately 2%-3% (2012-2016) to about 5.7% (2017-2018) due to the ramp-up of Geely and SAIC [4] - Overall gross margin decreased from nearly 30% in 2013 to about 20% in 2024, influenced by product structure changes, fluctuations in commercial vehicle profitability, and rising raw material prices [4] - Passenger car business gross margin remained relatively stable despite overall margin decline [4] Capital Expenditure and Expenses - Full-process gross margin saw a significant decline from 2018 to 2019 due to accelerated capital expenditure, stagnant revenue growth, and rising raw material prices [5] - Sales expenses are expected to decrease in 2024 due to warranty impacts, while management expenses will rise due to overseas expansion and early mass production of Tesla projects [6] Customer Structure and Future Expectations - Customer structure has changed significantly over time: - Early stage: Chery and Geely were major customers (22% each) - Mid-stage: Geely became the largest customer (29%), followed by SAIC (25%) - Recent stage: Key customers include Chery, Tesla, Geely, and Li Auto [9] - Future growth is anticipated through global expansion and partnerships with overseas OEMs such as Volkswagen, Volvo, and Audi [7] Product Development and Competitive Advantage - New Spring is expanding its product line to include exterior parts and passenger car seats, aiming to become a leading player in the automotive interior sector [13] - The company has a competitive advantage in cost control and response efficiency compared to competitors, with a strong market position due to increasing industry concentration and limited new entrants [14] Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.337 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.102 billion CNY respectively [2][13]