机构认为与股牛已脱钩，继续看多债市。 转债指数接近历史最高点，转债可能到了谨慎乐观的时候，后续关注股市变化及可转债发行审批等。我 们估算目前理财持有三千多亿固收+基金，其中，持仓一级债基很多。倘若后续股市调整，理财可能大 幅赎回固收+基金，或有负反馈。固收+不好做，规模大幅起来的时候，转债估值往往很高了。 我们持续看下半年10Y国债1.6%-1.8%，未来几个月有机会再度接近1.6%！最近一直建议珍惜收益率2% 以上的30Y国债和5Y资本债。此前，我们也持续明确建议业绩落后的抓住调整机会大幅加久期实现一把 翻身，右侧投资难度不低。很多久期短的一直等着加仓拉久期。 本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，近一周场内成交贴水最少，净值相对 稳健且回撤可控。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 从已披露中报的上市公司来看，同比低基数之下，全A的1H25盈利增速未较一季度改善，营收增速持续 低迷。自24年9月24日以来，本轮股票牛市时间已接近1年，全A指数已经翻倍。本轮股票牛市是资金驱 动，上证十年新高后，进入无人区，昨日成交已达3.2万亿，天量或难以持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that trends are accelerated by news stimuli rather than changed, indicating that current market movements are aligned with broader trends [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 340 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 5,259 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,919 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.31% and DR007 at approximately 1.42% [3]. - The interbank funding rates show a slight decline, with R001 at 1.36% (down 1 basis point) and R007 at 1.49% (up 97 basis points) [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market sentiment is stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.64% after opening flat [5]. - Despite rumors of regulatory investigations into short-term bond funds buying long-term government bonds, market enthusiasm remains high, with the 30-year government bond becoming the most active [6]. - The 30-year government bond recorded over 1,300 transactions, while the 10-year government bonds saw over 1,000 transactions, indicating a shift in investor preference towards ultra-long bonds [6].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in net buying of 7-10 year long-term bonds and bonds over 10 years, with weekly net buying intensity reaching the second highest and highest levels of the year respectively [1] - The overall funding market has warmed up, with both net inflow and outflow amounts rising, and an increase in the leverage ratio in the interbank bond market [2] - The secondary market shows improved activity, particularly in ultra-long bonds, with a rise in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and an increase in average duration for medium to long-term pure bond funds [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the primary market, there was a noticeable "marginal" sentiment, with an increase in the issuance of government bonds and a rise in the bid-to-cover ratio for government bonds, while the ratio for policy financial bonds decreased [2] - Major institutional behaviors indicate that funds are aggressively allocating to long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, while rural commercial banks are selling off across all maturities, particularly in the 7-10 year and over 10-year segments [3] - The scale of wealth management products in June did not show the typical seasonal decline, with a slight overall decrease in the week of June 15, while fund sizes increased significantly compared to previous months [4]

报告导读： 上周前半周大行融出规模快速攀升，降准生效后回落，一级市场发行热度表 现分化，二级市场热度整体向好，农商行大规模承接长债，基金加仓短端信用债。 资金市场：大行融出规模快速攀升，降准生效后回落。 过去一周资金市场整体降温。主要融入方净融入金 额转负，主要融出方净融出金额上升。银行间总融入融出回购余额上升，银行间债市杠杆率基本持平。分 机构看，商业银行 / 政策性银行、证券公司、非法人产品杠杆率下降，保险公司杠杆率上升。隔夜回购占 比上升。 一级市场：一级发行热度表现分化。 过去一周有 1 只 10Y 国债、 2 只 10Y 国开债和 1 只 10Y 其他政 金债（农发债）发行，国债、国开债一级市场全场倍数下降，其他政金债一级市场全场倍数上升。国债、 国开债一二级价差收窄，其他政金债一二级价差走阔。一致性预期方面，国开债和其他政金债边际倍数上 升，国债边际倍数下降。 二级市场：过去一周二级市场热度整体向好，超长债换手率上升，交易盘对短债买入力度加强。 30 年国 债换手率上升，中长期纯债型基金久期平均数下降。债券借贷总借入量上升，活跃券占比上升。主要买方 利率债净买入上升，主要卖方利率债净卖出力度加大。 ...