人民财讯1月8日电，中共合肥市委发布关于制定合肥市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议， 其中指出，加快新兴产业和未来产业培育壮大。坚持重点突破与全面布局相结合，围绕"芯屏汽合"等重 点方向，聚力推动基础较好、引领带动能力强的主导产业壮大规模、增强优势。智能网联新能源汽车产 业，巩固新能源乘用车领先优势，差异化布局新能源商(专)用车，实现整零高水平配套，推动汽车后市 场高质量发展。新一代信息技术产业，聚焦集成电路、新型显示等重点领域，加快3D DRAM、柔性 OLED、微显示、光量子等新技术布局应用，强化重大项目建设和先进制程工艺、核心装备材料攻关。 新能源产业，扩大储能产业比较优势和市场占有率，加快动力电池技术创新和产业规模壮大，加强先进 光伏及电力电子设备布局应用。新材料产业，突出主导产业需求，大力发展超导材料、半导体材料、功 能性膜材料、正负极材料、镁基新材料等。智能家电(居)产业，推动家电高端化、智能化、绿色化、场 景化发展，拓展服务型家电、特色小家电、可穿戴设备等新赛道。高端装备制造产业，巩固提升工程机 械、智能成套设备等优势领域国际竞争力，加快培育工业机器人、半导体装备、无人船(艇)等新增长 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 年电子行业十大预测 20260104 Q&A 2026 年电子行业的十大预测中,云端算力板块有哪些重要趋势和变化? 2026年,云端算力板块尤其是国产算力将迎来显著发展。首先,从产能角度来 看,预计到 2026年底,包括国内头部晶圆厂在内的 N2 制程将释放充沛的产能, 为国内 GPU 厂商提供足够的供给。这意味着产能瓶颈不再是国产算力发展的核心 问题。 从需求端来看,无论是字节跳动等龙头公司的投放消耗,还是国产算力 原厂商的客单价情况,都显示出强劲增长。例如,在2025年 5月,字节跳动单 日数据消耗约为 15-16 万亿,到 9 月底已达到 30 万亿,并在 12 月初超过 50 万 k 调研纪号 争 狗 - 国产 GPU 产能释放,不再是算力瓶颈,字节跳动等龙头企业数据消耗量激 . 增,预示国产算力需求端强劲增长,2026年中或突破百万亿级别,为国 产算力公司业绩兑现奠定基础。 寒武纪和海光等龙头 GPT 公司在产能供给和地方政府招标中占据优势,同 ● 时,推理芯片需求增加,ASIC 芯片有望与 GPU 并驾齐驱,新元股份和翱 捷等公司 ...

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 铠侠表示，该公司已开发出可高度堆叠的氧化物半导体沟道晶体管，能够支持高密度 3D DRAM。 这项技术的发展有望通过降低每 GB 的制造成本，并通过高导通电流和超低关断电流晶体管提高能源 效率，从而带来更便宜、更快的内存。 然而，这项技术需要精确的多层对准、集成到标准制造工艺中以及长期可靠性测试，所有这些都可能 需要数十年时间。 该技术在最近于旧金山举行的 IEEE 国际电子器件会议上进行了展示，演示了堆叠成八层垂直结构的 晶体管的运行情况。 垂直层由水平排列的晶体管组成，这些晶体管是通过用氧化物半导体材料 InGaZnO 取代传统的氮化 硅区域而形成的。 这种设计方案无需依赖传统的平面DRAM结构即可增加内存容量。 氧化物半导体沟道晶体管将成熟的氧化硅和氮化硅薄膜与新型 InGaZnO 材料相结合。 Kioxia 推出的 3D 存储单元结构扩大了垂直间距，使得单位体积内可以堆叠更多的存储单元。 在该工艺中形成的水平晶体管具有超过 30 微安的高导通电流。 它还表现出低于 1 阿安培的超低关断电流，从而最大限度地减少了刷新周期中的能耗。 通过降低刷新功耗，该设计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Doubao Mobile Assistant by ByteDance marks a significant event in the consumer electronics industry, indicating the onset of the "Agent Era" in mobile AI applications [4][5]. Group 1: Doubao Mobile Assistant Features - Doubao Mobile Assistant achieves a "human-like" operation capability, allowing for complex cross-application tasks with a success rate exceeding 80%, significantly surpassing market expectations [7]. - Key highlights include: - **System-level Interaction**: Supports voice, side AI key, and Bluetooth headset wake-up, enabling real-time Q&A, voiceprint unlocking, and video calls without opening apps [8]. - **Cross-Application Execution**: Users can command the assistant to perform tasks like comparing prices across platforms and modifying images, with user intervention only required for critical payment steps [8]. - **Scheduled Tasks**: Automates operations like capturing trending topics on Weibo and daily coupon collection, running silently in the background to minimize user disruption [8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The emergence of Doubao Mobile Assistant is part of a broader trend where edge AI technology is nearing a "singularity," with a dense release period for edge AI hardware expected from December 2025 to mid-2026 [10]. - Major companies like Ideal, Samsung, Baidu, and Google are set to launch various edge AI products, enhancing the competitive landscape [10][11]. - The breakthrough in edge model technology supports ecosystem expansion, with advancements in model compression and low-bit quantization becoming standard [12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - **SOC Chips**: As the core of edge AI's computing power, SOC chips are expected to see sustained demand with the growth of AI smartphones and AIoT hardware [15]. - Companies like Hengxuan Technology and Lexin Technology are well-positioned to benefit from this expansion, with potential valuation increases anticipated [16]. - **Edge Storage**: The demand for high-bandwidth, low-cost storage driven by local inference in edge AI creates strong opportunities, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation leading the sector [17]. - Their 3D DRAM products are expected to achieve breakthroughs in various applications by 2026, enhancing their market value [18]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Opportunities in the consumer electronics sector are concentrated in ODM manufacturing and core components for AR glasses, with companies like Tianyue Advanced and GoerTek expected to gain from increased orders in AIoT hardware production [19].

Summary of Conference Call on Customized Storage and 3D DRAM Technology Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the **3D DRAM** industry, particularly advancements in **Processing in Memory (PIM)** technology and its integration with DRAM [1][3][20]. Key Points and Arguments PIM Technology - **Samsung** is actively promoting PIM technology, integrating it directly with DRAM at the DDR level, which is expected to become a development hotspot [1]. - **SK Hynix** is also pushing related protocols, with potential adaptations from **Qualcomm** and **MTK** [1][3]. - PIM optimizes bandwidth requirements for large model inference by placing the most bandwidth-demanding components within memory [1][6]. 3D DRAM Market Dynamics - **Changxin Semiconductor** dominates the domestic 3D DRAM market with strong competitiveness and high user stickiness, potentially becoming a de facto standard [1][7]. - Current mature technology supports up to **8 layers** of stacking, with bandwidth sweet spots around **1-2TB** [9]. - The cost structure indicates that DRAM manufacturers capture the highest value in the customized storage segment, with costs exceeding **50%** of chip expenses [14][15]. Technical Comparisons - **PIM vs. Traditional SOC**: PIM offers high internal bandwidth but does not significantly enhance the main SoC's bandwidth, as it offloads bandwidth-intensive tasks to DRAM [6]. - **3D DRAM vs. Standard DDR4**: 3D DRAM uses Die-to-Die or Wafer-to-Wafer packaging, imposing limitations on SoC size and power consumption, contrasting with traditional DIMM designs [8]. Industry Players and Competitiveness - Domestic players include **Changxin** and **Changchun**, with Taiwanese firms like **Nanya** and **Micron** having higher demand for 3D DRAM but lower technical capabilities [5]. - **Wuhan Xinxin** employs advanced packaging technology (XSTACK) but lacks its own fab, limiting large-scale production [26][27]. Future Trends and Challenges - The integration of **HBM** (High Bandwidth Memory) and 3D DRAM is anticipated, with HBM being favored for high bandwidth and cooling efficiency in GPU applications [20][21]. - The potential for customized storage to replace HBM is limited due to inherent advantages of HBM in capacity and thermal management [21]. - The market for customized storage is expected to grow, but prices may not significantly drop until production scales and technology matures [31]. Application and Market Demand - Different end-user devices (e.g., smartphones, PCs, automotive) have varying requirements for storage and computing products, with smartphones demanding low power and compact designs [22][23]. - The timeline for seeing related products in the consumer market is projected for early to mid-next year, with AI PCs expected to lead the way [24]. Conclusion - The 3D DRAM and customized storage market is evolving with significant technological advancements, competitive dynamics, and varying application needs. The interplay between PIM, HBM, and traditional DRAM solutions will shape future developments in the industry [34].

Core Insights - Hefei Xinhui Microelectronics Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company") has strategically entered the storage chip packaging and testing sector by investing in Hefei Xinfeng Technology Co., Ltd. and collaborating with East China Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. This move is crucial for expanding its display driver packaging and testing business boundaries and enhancing its competitive edge in the domestic and international storage chip markets [1][4] Group 1: Strategic Positioning - The company leverages the robust semiconductor industry cluster in Hefei, which has allowed it to achieve significant scale in display driver packaging and testing, thus accumulating valuable operational experience [1][2] - By adopting a combination investment model, the company directly acquired a 27.5445% stake in the target entities with an investment of 90.4841 million yuan, while also holding indirect stakes through private equity funds, minimizing risks associated with single business expansion [1][3] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The local semiconductor ecosystem, including wafer manufacturing and substrate supply, significantly reduces supply chain costs and response times for the storage packaging and testing business [2] - The company plans to enhance its storage packaging capacity by the end of 2027, utilizing its efficient production management and customer service processes from the display driver sector to expedite the transition to large-scale operations [2][4] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The global storage chip market is experiencing structural opportunities driven by AI infrastructure demands, with a notable increase in prices for storage chips over the past six months [3] - The company’s entry into the storage packaging and testing market reflects its strategic foresight and market insight, aiming to establish a dual-core business model of "display + storage" to fuel long-term growth [3][4] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Collaboration with East China Technology, which possesses 3D CUBE solutions, positions the company to make breakthroughs in advanced packaging for 3D DRAM, addressing domestic market gaps and aligning with AI-era storage needs [3] - The company’s non-controlling equity layout helps mitigate short-term profit pressures while leveraging past financial advantages and local investment platforms to promote capacity expansion [3][4]

Summary of Conference Call on Storage Industry and Key Companies Industry Overview - The storage industry is experiencing a significant upward trend in capital expenditure driven by product iterations, particularly the transition from over 200-layer to over 300-layer NAND products, with a capital expenditure slope of approximately 20%-30% per 10,000 wafers [1][2] - DRAM technology innovations, such as the increase in DDR5 market share, the implementation of 3D DRAM projects, and the industrialization of domestic HBM, are expected to further drive capital expenditure growth in the coming year [1][2] Impact on Equipment Companies - The cyclical changes in the storage industry significantly affect the revenue of upstream equipment companies. Since 2019, overseas equipment companies have seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%-30% in storage chain revenue [1][3] - Domestic companies like Zhongwei and Tuojing Technology benefit from the high localization rate of long-term storage equipment, with revenue exposure from the storage sector reaching 60%-70% [4][5] Key Companies Recommended - **Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company** are recommended due to their expected growth in orders from long-term storage expansion, with Zhongwei anticipating a 30%-40% increase in orders next year [1][5] - Tuojing Technology is expected to see rapid improvement in profitability driven by accelerated order delivery, a gross margin recovery to over 40%, and a reduction in expense ratios to 20%-25% [1][5][6] Factors Driving Profitability for Tuojing Technology - Key factors for Tuojing Technology's future profitability include: - Accelerated order delivery leading to significant revenue growth - Recovery of gross margins to over 40% - Expense reductions, including stable employee compensation and decreased stock incentive costs, allowing profit margins to potentially rise to 20%-25% [6] - New layouts in the hybrid bonding sector are expected to create additional market demand, particularly with the rollout of 3D DRAM projects and HBM 5 industrialization [6] Importance of Hybrid Bonding Technology - Hybrid bonding technology is crucial for Tuojing Technology's development, meeting current demands and extending into future markets [7] - By 2026, successful validation from downstream customers and expanded demand in sectors such as SOIC, GPO, and smart glasses will enhance the company's growth potential [7] Additional Equipment Companies to Watch - Besides the core recommendations, smaller equipment companies like Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic and Jing Zhi Da are also worth monitoring. These companies may experience favorable order elasticity and exposure as HBM 0-1 enters industrialization in 2026 [8]

Summary of the Conference Call on Huicheng Co., Ltd. and New Wind Technology Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: New Wind Technology, a company established in 2019, focuses on DRAM packaging and testing, with a complete capability from wafer testing to packaging testing [2][5][6] - **Industry**: The memory chip market, particularly DRAM, is the largest chip market globally, with China's demand exceeding 600 billion RMB [2][8] Key Points and Arguments Shareholding Structure and Control - Huicheng and its partners hold approximately 57% of New Wind Technology, with Huicheng directly holding 18.44% and indirectly holding 27.5% through funds [2][3] - Recent transactions involved Huicheng purchasing 18.44% of shares for 90.48 million RMB and acquiring an additional 44.57% from existing major shareholders, totaling 63.01% of shares transferred [3] Future Plans and Financing - New Wind plans to initiate 400 to 500 million RMB in equity financing and 100 to 200 million RMB in bank debt financing by Q4 2025 to support capacity expansion [3][14] - The company aims to increase its production capacity from 20,000 wafers per month in 2025 to 40,000 in 2026 and ultimately to 100,000 to 120,000 by 2027 [6][10] Market Position and Customer Base - New Wind's primary customer is Changxin Storage, which is expected to increase its production capacity from 250,000 wafers per month to 400,000 by 2026 [8] - The company aims to become one of the top suppliers to Changxin, leveraging its close relationship and geographical advantages [8][11] Technological Advantages - New Wind has significant advantages in 3D DRAM packaging, excelling in key metrics such as flatness, hole size, and warpage [2][11] - The company is also expanding into customized UFS products and 3D CUBE products, targeting a market size expected to reach hundreds of billions [12] Revenue Growth Potential - If New Wind captures 20% of the domestic DDR and LPDDR packaging market, it could generate an additional 1.65 billion RMB in revenue [13] - The company is expected to achieve significant growth through capacity expansion and the introduction of high-value-added products [13] Strategic Partnerships - Huicheng has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huadong Technology to jointly develop storage chip packaging services, enhancing competitiveness in the DRAM packaging market [3][26] Competitive Landscape - New Wind is one of only five companies in China capable of 3D DRAM packaging, positioning it favorably against competitors [8][19] - The company is focused on optimizing its processes and maintaining a competitive edge in the evolving 3D DRAM market [19] Future Outlook - The storage industry, particularly the DRAM sector, is expected to experience prolonged demand due to the rise of AI technologies, which will increase the need for high-end storage solutions [21] - New Wind's expansion plans and strategic partnerships are anticipated to contribute positively to its long-term growth and market position [22][31] Other Important Insights - New Wind's current production capacity is fully utilized, and while it is expanding, it has not yet reached economies of scale, which may delay profitability [23] - The company does not currently plan to consolidate with Huicheng but will continue to operate independently while benefiting from strategic synergies [15][22]