格隆汇9月26日丨北京君正(300223.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司有在研3D DRAM。 ...

Summary of Next-Generation DRAM 2025 Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM)** industry, particularly the **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)** and **3D DRAM** technologies [3][28][52]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: The HBM market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to rise from **$17 billion in 2024 to $98 billion by 2030**, reflecting a **33% CAGR** [52]. - **Bit Shipments**: HBM bit shipments are forecasted to grow at a **31% CAGR** through 2030, with a **193% YoY increase** in 2024 [52]. - **Revenue Share**: HBM's revenue share within the DRAM market is expected to increase from **18% in 2024 to 50% by 2030** [52]. - **Conventional DRAM Growth**: Conventional DRAM, including DDR, LPDDR, and GDDR, is expected to grow at a modest **3% CAGR** from **$80 billion in 2024** [52]. - **Technological Transition**: The industry is preparing for a shift to **3D DRAM architectures** as planar DRAM scaling reaches its limits by **2033-2034** [53][54]. Key Market Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: Current supply constraints in HBM underscore its strategic importance in AI data centers, with major manufacturers fully allocating their production capacity through 2025 [52]. - **Investment in Capacity**: Leading suppliers, including **Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron**, are increasing wafer allocations for HBM production to meet escalating demand [52]. - **China's Advancements**: Chinese companies are making significant investments to localize memory production amid U.S. sanctions, with **CXMT** ramping up production and developing HBM capabilities [53]. Technology Trends - **CBA Integration**: The **CMOS Bonded Array (CBA)** architecture is expected to deliver up to a **30% increase in bit density** and is seen as a crucial step towards full 3D DRAM [54]. - **Emerging Technologies**: The report highlights the importance of **processing-in-memory (PiM)** and **3D DRAM** as promising long-term solutions for achieving high-density DRAM architectures [28][54]. - **Advanced Packaging**: Hybrid bonding is projected to enter the market with HBM5, particularly for high-stack configurations, enabling more than **20 dies per stack** [54][79]. Financial Metrics - **Revenue Forecasts**: The overall DRAM market is expected to grow from **$97 billion in 2024 to $194.5 billion by 2030**, with a combined CAGR of **12%** [52]. - **ASP Dynamics**: The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is projected to remain stable due to sustained demand, despite competitive pressures [52]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Cyclicality**: The report outlines the cyclicality of the DRAM market throughout history, emphasizing the need for manufacturers to adapt to price fluctuations and market dynamics [17]. - **Player Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is intensifying, with **SK hynix** leading the HBM market, followed by **Samsung** and **Micron**, who are working to catch up [53]. - **Technological Challenges**: The transition to advanced DRAM technologies faces challenges related to cost, yield, and alignment requirements, necessitating innovative solutions [54]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future prospects of the DRAM industry, highlighting key trends, market dynamics, and technological advancements that are shaping the landscape.

Group 1 - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has become the main driver for growth in the DRAM market, addressing bandwidth bottlenecks, high power consumption, and capacity limitations, with the global HBM market expected to grow from $17 billion in 2024 to $98 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of 33% [1] - The 3DDRAM technology, which utilizes a vertical architecture to break through traditional process limits, is anticipated to be a long-term solution, with key manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung planning to launch HBM4 products by 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][2] - The shift towards 3DDRAM is expected to benefit high aspect ratio etching and thin film deposition processes, as the industry value is moving from lithography equipment to etching and deposition segments [2] Group 2 - The W2W (Wafer-to-Wafer) bonding process is crucial for 3DDRAM, with the bonder market projected to grow from 100 billion yen in 2025 to 300 billion yen by 2030, driven by the need to stack control circuits vertically [3] - Chinese manufacturers may achieve a competitive advantage in the 3DDRAM era due to limited reliance on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography, focusing instead on etching, thin film, and bonding technologies [4] - Customized storage solutions are becoming increasingly important for edge AI applications, with companies like Winbond and Nanya targeting specific markets such as AI servers and AI-enabled devices, indicating a positive outlook for domestic manufacturers [5][6]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - Beijing Junzheng Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. is focusing on upgrading storage products, particularly DDR4 and LPDDR4, to penetrate markets like automotive, especially in electric vehicles [2][3]. - The company has shifted from a 25nm process to 18nm and 16nm, enabling the introduction of 8G LPDDR4 and higher capacity products [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Product Strategy - Currently, DDR3 accounts for nearly 50% of the company's revenue, but with new product introductions, DDR4 and LPDDR4 are expected to significantly increase their sales share in the coming years [3]. - The gross margin for storage products has historically fluctuated around 30%, with new products expected to enhance revenue and sales volume rather than significantly increase margins [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Growth Opportunities - The automotive market is showing signs of recovery, with a gradual increase in revenue from this sector, particularly in China, while Europe is experiencing a decline [4][5]. - The niche DRAM market is estimated to be around $10 billion, with half of that being high-reliability applications, including automotive and industrial sectors [5]. Group 4: Product Development and Competitive Advantage - The company is collaborating with Tier 1 manufacturers and main control chip suppliers to ensure high reliability and long-term supply capabilities for automotive applications [6]. - New product developments include LPDDR5 for automotive applications, with plans to expand into AI-related products and high-performance computing solutions [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Expansion - The company is entering new markets such as printers and robotic vacuum cleaners, leveraging low power consumption and cost-effectiveness to gain traction [6]. - There is a strategic focus on enhancing computing power in camera applications, with plans to increase processing capabilities from 1T to 4T, and exploring opportunities in edge computing and AI [7].

Summary of Beijing Junzheng's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beijing Junzheng - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on computing chips, storage chips, and analog interconnect chips Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Beijing Junzheng achieved total revenue of approximately 2.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.75% [4] - Net profit for the same period was 203 million yuan, showing a growth of less than 3% [4] - Revenue from computing chips was 604 million yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year, driven by embedded SoC and smart video products [2] - Storage chip revenue was 1.38 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase, primarily targeting automotive, industrial, and communication sectors [2] - Analog interconnect revenue reached 240 million yuan, growing by 5% [2] Product Line Developments - The company is focusing on three main product lines: computing chips, storage chips, and analog interconnect chips [5] - New developments include the introduction of AI MCUs in computing chips and the ongoing research into 3D DRAM products in storage chips [5] - The company plans to enhance its SoC chip product line and expand into overseas markets, with a focus on high-performance NPU development [10] Market Trends and Strategies - The storage chip market is showing signs of recovery after a downturn, with a significant demand for DRAM products, especially in the automotive sector [11][12] - The company is upgrading its DRAM product line to 18nm and 16nm nodes, with DDR4 and subsequent technologies expected to dominate shipments in the next couple of years [3][19] - The automotive storage market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for smart applications and autonomous driving technologies [22] Competitive Positioning - The company maintains a competitive edge through long-term partnerships with automotive manufacturers and the ability to provide high reliability and comprehensive technical support [24] - Despite challenges in entering new markets, the company leverages its experience in the security field to innovate and compete effectively [27] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future, with expectations of continued growth in the automotive market and the successful launch of new products, including high-capacity LPDDR4 for smart cockpits and autonomous driving systems [23][22] - The development of 3D DRAM is seen as a significant opportunity, with ongoing collaborations with clients in AI and high-performance computing sectors [30] - Overall, 2025 is viewed as a pivotal year for the company, with strategic initiatives expected to drive future revenue growth [33] Additional Important Insights - The company is actively pursuing a Hong Kong stock listing to support its globalization strategy amidst a complex global political and economic environment [6] - The analog interconnect business is also showing resilience, with a gross margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [17] - The company has a robust inventory buffer of approximately 2 billion USD to mitigate supply chain challenges [26]

Core Viewpoint - The research conducted by IMEC and Ghent University represents a significant advancement towards 3D DRAM technology, achieved by alternating the growth of 120 layers of silicon and silicon-germanium on 300mm wafers, overcoming challenges related to lattice mismatch and defect management [2][4][6] Group 1: Technical Achievements - The team successfully adjusted the germanium content in silicon-germanium layers and introduced carbon to alleviate stress, ensuring uniform temperature during deposition to prevent defects [2][4] - The advanced epitaxial deposition technique allows for precise control over the thickness, composition, and uniformity of each layer, which is crucial for maintaining structural integrity in the stacked configuration [4][6] Group 2: Implications for Memory Technology - Traditional DRAM's planar layout limits density, while vertical stacking (3D) enables more storage units in the same footprint, enhancing storage capacity without increasing chip size [4][6] - The successful construction of 120-layer structures indicates that vertical scaling is feasible, bringing the industry closer to next-generation high-density storage devices [4][6] Group 3: Broader Impact on Semiconductor Industry - The precise multi-layer growth technology could advance the development of 3D transistors, stacked logic devices, and even quantum computing architectures, where atomic-level control of layer characteristics is essential [6] - This research aligns with ongoing developments in Gate-All-Around Field Effect Transistors (GAAFET) and Complementary Field Effect Transistors (CFET), which benefit from the precise material control enabled by epitaxial growth techniques [6]

Market Overview - The CSI Chip Industry Index (H30007.CSI) opened higher today, rising by 1.43% as of 14:45, with a peak increase of nearly 4% during the previous day. The chip industry has seen five consecutive days of gains, driven primarily by domestic substitution. AI chips have shown the largest increase, while leading companies in ASIC chips have also performed well. Additionally, companies in key domestic substitution areas such as photolithography machines and photoresists have experienced significant gains [2]. Chip Industry Performance - The chip sector is showing signs of strength, benefiting from three main factors: 1. The semiconductor market remains highly prosperous, with global semiconductor sales reaching a historical high of $59.91 billion in June, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5%. China's semiconductor sales also hit a record high of $17.24 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month. In July, integrated circuit exports reached $17.888 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 29.16% and a volume of 31.84 billion units, up 16.63% year-on-year [3]. 2. The government work report for 2025 emphasizes "promoting high-level technological self-reliance," accelerating high-end domestic substitution in areas such as advanced processes, advanced storage, and advanced packaging. AI chips and automotive-grade chips are progressing rapidly, evolving from simple substitution to innovative replacement. The current overall domestic chip substitution rate is approximately 20%, indicating significant room for growth towards the 70% target. The recent easing of trade tensions is not expected to impact the long-term strategic layout of self-reliance in the chip sector [4][5]. Mergers and Acquisitions - There are numerous potential benefits from ongoing mergers and acquisitions, supported by policies such as "Kebatian" and "Merger Six," which facilitate the integration of upstream and downstream industries. This enhances the collaborative effect within the industry and creates opportunities for external growth in the chip sector. For instance, North Huachuang's acquisition of Xinyuanwei integrates coating and developing equipment technology, improving the semiconductor equipment platform layout [10]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor sector, as a core area of hard technology, is expected to experience an upward trend driven by self-reliance policies and industry catalysts. The upcoming release of Q4 Mate 80, which may include iterative improvements in SoC chips, is anticipated to benefit the advanced process supply chain. Additionally, progress in 3D DRAM product development is expected to be disclosed, positively impacting the advanced storage supply chain [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the latest advancements in semiconductor technology presented at the VLSI conference, highlighting innovations in chip manufacturing, including digital twins, advanced logic transistors, and future interconnects, as well as comparisons between Intel's 18A process and TSMC's technologies [1]. Group 1: FlipFET Design - Despite various restrictions, China continues to advance in semiconductor R&D, with Peking University's FlipFET design gaining significant attention for its novel patterning scheme that achieves PPA similar to CFET without the challenges of monolithic or sequential integration [2]. - The FlipFET technology involves a process where NMOS is formed on the front side and PMOS on the back side of the wafer, showcasing good performance for both types of transistors [8][10]. - The main drawback of FlipFET is its cost, as it requires multiple back-end processes and is more susceptible to wafer warping and alignment errors, potentially affecting yield [12]. Group 2: DRAM Developments - DRAM is at a pivotal point in its five-year roadmap with two key advancements: 4F2 and 3D technologies, with 4F2 expected to increase density by 30% compared to 6F2 without reducing minimum feature size [16][23]. - The 4F2 architecture necessitates vertical channel transistors to fit within the unit size, presenting manufacturing challenges due to high aspect ratios [24][31]. - 3D DRAM is being developed concurrently, with Chinese manufacturers showing strong motivation to innovate in this area due to its independence from advanced lithography technologies [36]. Group 3: Digital Twin Technology - Digital twin technology is becoming essential in semiconductor design and manufacturing, allowing for design exploration and optimization in a virtual environment before physical production [79]. - This technology spans atomic-level simulations to wafer-level optimizations, enhancing productivity and yield in semiconductor fabrication [80][87]. - The implementation of "unmanned" fabs is a future goal, aiming for automated maintenance and operation without human intervention, which poses challenges in standardizing processes across different equipment vendors [92]. Group 4: Intel's 18A Process - Intel's 18A process, set to enter mass production in late 2025, combines Gate-All-Around transistors with a PowerVia back power network, significantly reducing interconnect spacing and improving yield [74][78]. - The 18A process claims a 30% reduction in SRAM size compared to Intel's 3rd generation baseline, with performance improvements of approximately 15% at the same power consumption [76]. - The process also features a reduction in the number of front metal layers and an increase in back metal layers to support the new architecture, indicating a shift towards more efficient manufacturing [77].

Core Insights - The launch of Changxin Technology's first 12-inch DRAM wafer production line in July 2018 marked a new era for China's semiconductor storage industry [1] - Changxin Technology is initiating its A-share IPO process, signaling a new development phase for China's storage semiconductor industry [3][4] - The rapid growth of Changxin and other Chinese storage companies is reshaping the global DRAM market, challenging the dominance of established players like Samsung and SK Hynix [4][5] Industry Development - The Chinese storage semiconductor industry has shown remarkable growth over the past decade, with Changxin's DRAM production capacity expected to increase from 1.62 million wafers last year to 2.73 million this year, a 68% increase [4] - Traditional industry giants are feeling pressure from Chinese companies' aggressive pricing strategies, which are impacting their financial performance [4][5] - The competitive landscape is shifting from a "three-player" dominance to a "multi-competitor" scenario, providing consumers with more choices and competitive pricing [14][18] Company Strategy - Changxin's CEO, Zhu Yiming, emphasizes a commitment to not taking salary or bonuses until the project is profitable, reflecting a strong focus on long-term success [1][3] - The collaboration between Changxin and its partners, including Zhaoyi Innovation, showcases a successful model of integrating technology, capital, and government support [6][8] - The recent valuation of Changxin at 140 billion yuan indicates strong market confidence in its future growth and the overall potential of China's storage semiconductor industry [9] Future Outlook - Despite international sanctions and export controls, Chinese storage companies are aggressively expanding their market presence and technological capabilities [10][14] - The demand for high-performance storage products is expected to grow with the rise of AI, cloud computing, and 5G applications, presenting significant opportunities for Chinese firms [14] - The transition of Changxin and other companies to open market competition is seen as a necessary step for developing world-class competitive capabilities [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gigadevice Semiconductor and raises the target price to RMB149.50 from RMB140.20, implying approximately 24% upside from the current share price of RMB121.01 [5][12][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights favorable supply-demand dynamics for DDR4, which are expected to continue, benefiting Gigadevice's specialty DRAM business [3][12]. - The 3D DRAM business is progressing well and is anticipated to start generating revenue in the second half of 2025, particularly in mid-end smartphones [4][12]. - The report introduces 2027 estimates, projecting a revenue of RMB14,611 million and a net profit of RMB2,659 million [31]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating and raise target price to RMB149.50 from RMB140.20 [5][12][36]. Financial Performance - The report lowers 2025-26 EPS estimates by 2% and 1% respectively, while still being above consensus by 6% for 2025 [31][32]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-26 are raised by 22% and 28% respectively, driven by expected ASP increases due to supply constraints [33][34]. Market Dynamics - Anticipated 35% increase in specialty DRAM ASP in 2025 due to supply-demand disparity as major suppliers phase out DDR4 products [3][12]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for other DDR4 suppliers is projected to be RMB12 billion, RMB45 billion, and RMB46 billion for 2025-27 [3][12]. Growth Drivers - The 3D DRAM business is expected to be a significant growth engine, with initial revenue generation anticipated in 2H25 [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the stable relationship with CXMT, which will support Gigadevice's capacity expansion in DDR4 [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a net profit CAGR of 34% from 2024-27, adopting a target PE multiple of 52.3x, which is 16% below the historical average [5][36].