固定收益定期 联储换帅、市场波动与债市逻辑 本周债市总体震荡，各期限利率变化有限。本周债市总体震荡，10 年和 30 年 国债利率分别下降 1.9bps 上行 0.2bps 至 1.81%和 2.29%。3 年和 5 年二级 资本债分别上升 3.0bps 和下降 1.6bps。1 年 AAA 存单利率保持在 1.60%。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 本周末全球市场剧烈震荡，可能部分受特朗普提名新的美联储主席影响。本周 五，美国总统特朗普宣布了新的美联储主席提名人选凯文·沃什。由于此前凯 文·沃什相对于当前美联储主席鲍威尔，在货币政策表态方面更显鹰派，例如 更为主张降息与缩表并行，以及支持联储独立性等，市场因此产生对联储政策 路径不确定的担忧。进而贵金属市场和股票市场都出现了较为显著的下跌。 我们认为新任联储主席政策存在不确定性，以往表述可以参考，但也存在变化 可能。美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什是货币政策宽松、维护联储独立性以及 美元地位等多方面因素综合考量的结果。而新任联储主席的政策也可能是多 重目标和多种因素综合考虑的结果，并非完全基于上任前的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market weakened in the last week before the holiday, with government bond rates rising while credit bonds strengthened. The expectation is for a recovery in the bond market post-holiday due to regulatory changes and easing bank pressure [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the last week before the holiday, the 10-year and 30-year government bond rates increased by 1.0bps and 4.4bps to 1.85% and 2.27%, respectively, while short-term rates also rose [1][7]. - Credit bonds showed strength, with 3-year and 5-year AAA secondary capital bond rates slightly declining, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate decreasing by 1.0bps to 1.63% [1][7]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The new public fund fee regulations, which are more lenient than the draft proposal, are expected to alleviate redemption pressure and support the bond market recovery. The final version allows for certain exemptions on redemption fees for long-term holders [1][7]. Group 3: Bank Pressure and Supply - The easing of bank indicator pressures, particularly from large banks, is anticipated to enhance overall allocation strength in the bond market. The Basel framework adjustment will reduce the parallel shift limit from 250bps to 225bps, effective January 1, 2026 [2][9]. - The government bond issuance plan for the first quarter is set at 2.1 trillion, lower than the 2.5 trillion planned for the same period in 2025, but with an accelerated issuance schedule [9][10]. Group 4: Credit and Funding Dynamics - The concentration of credit issuance in January is expected to impact the bond market. The proportion of first-quarter credit issuance has increased from 36.2% in 2020 to an estimated 59.8% in 2025, with January alone potentially accounting for 35% of annual credit [10][14]. - Despite the anticipated surge in credit issuance, current credit demand remains low, indicating that the impact on the bond market may be more rhythmical rather than trend-based [14][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to recover post-holiday, with smoother recovery anticipated after late January, despite ongoing supply pressures and increased funding demands [15]. - The expectation is that the 10-year government bond may reach new lows in the first half of the year [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall bond market is expected to strengthen gradually in the future due to increased capital supply and decreased financing demand, but there will be structural challenges, especially for ultra - long bonds. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds may be nearing the end, but their stabilization depends on the changes in the selling power of trading institutions. The slope of the yield curve next year may be more determined by regulations. The structural pressure on ultra - long bonds is expected to ease in mid - to late December. It is recommended to conduct right - side trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making allocations. The bond market is expected to have a trending market from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may hit a new low in the first quarter of next year [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market saw a unilateral adjustment in ultra - long bonds. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose significantly by 7.2 bps to 2.26%, and the 50 - year Treasury bond yield soared by 9.7 bps. However, Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and less remained stable, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising only slightly by 0.7 bps, and the yields of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds even declining slightly. Government financial bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, which are held more concentratedly by public funds, also adjusted along with ultra - long bonds. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose by 1 bps to 1.66% this week [1][8] 3.2 Reasons for the Overall Bond Market Strength 3.2.1 Capital Supply - The real estate slowdown will increase the capital supply in the bond market. The sum of the scales of household deposits, wealth management products, insurance, money market funds, and bond funds, which represents the capital source of the broad fixed - income market, showed a decline in growth in the first half of this year but has rebounded in recent months, mainly due to the impact of real estate. As household savings are relatively stable, but the structure of incremental household savings may change significantly, there is a high negative correlation between housing and low - risk financial assets. The recovery of real estate sales from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year diverted the capital inflow into broad fixed - income assets, but with the recent weakening of the real estate market, the capital inflow into broad fixed - income assets such as household deposits and insurance premiums is expected to increase again in the next few months [2][12] 3.2.2 Financing Demand - The decline in the social financing growth rate means that the growth rate of asset supply will slow down in the next few months. This year, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing rebounded from 8.0% at the end of last year to a maximum of 9.0% in the middle of this year, mainly driven by government bonds, with government bonds increasing by nearly 3 trillion yuan year - on - year. Assuming a fiscal deficit of 4%, a special Treasury bond of 2 trillion yuan, and new special bonds of 4.5 trillion yuan next year, government bonds will increase by about 500 billion yuan compared with this year, a significantly smaller increase than this year. If the non - government bond social financing increment remains the same as this year, the social financing growth rate may slow down again in the first half of next year [3][13] 3.3 Reasons for the Adjustment of Ultra - Long Bonds - Banks, especially large - scale banks, have taken on a large amount of long - term bonds, resulting in excessive pressure on some indicators such as △EVE. Recently, the slowdown in insurance premium income and the shift of asset allocation towards equities have led to insufficient allocation power from traditional ultra - long bond buyers such as insurance companies. After the positions of trading institutions became too concentrated, concentrated selling led to a rapid adjustment in ultra - long bonds [3][19] 3.4 Future Outlook for Ultra - Long Bonds - After rapid selling by trading institutions such as funds and securities firms, their positions have decreased significantly, reducing the room for further selling. As the yield of ultra - long bonds adjusts, their relative cost - effectiveness has changed. The spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year Treasury bonds is at the lowest level since the third quarter of 2017, and the spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year local government bonds is at the lowest level since relevant data became available, increasing the attractiveness of ultra - long bonds to allocation - oriented institutions. Therefore, the adjustment of ultra - long bonds may be nearing the end, but their stabilization still needs to be observed in terms of the selling power of trading institutions [4][19] 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market Structure Next Year - The slope of the yield curve next year may be more determined by regulations. If regulations continue to impose the same constraints on interest - rate risk indicators as this year, large - scale banks may continue to sell ultra - long bonds in the market, leading to a steeper yield curve. If regulations are adjusted or the central bank broadens the maturity range of bond purchases, the steepness of the yield curve will improve. The adjustment of regulatory indicators and the timing of such adjustments are highly uncertain. It is expected that the pressure on the long end will ease from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, and the slope of the yield curve is expected to recover [4][21] 3.6 Short - Term Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall supply - demand pattern will continue to drive the bond market to strengthen, and the structural pressure is expected to ease in mid - to late December. In the short term, the pressure on ultra - long bonds caused by selling by large - scale banks and trading institutions such as funds and securities firms still exists. It is expected that as the pressure on large - scale banks' indicators eases and the cost - effectiveness of ultra - long bonds increases after adjustment, allocation - oriented institutions will gradually increase their allocations, and the pressure is expected to ease starting in mid - to late December. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct right - side trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making allocations [5][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the bond market will still strengthen seasonally in December this year, and although the "front - running" rhythm will be later, it will still occur. As short - term constraints such as profit - taking and indicator pressures ease, allocative institutions will gradually increase their bond allocations, and it is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will drop to around 1.7% (new bonds) by the end of the year [5][22]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Bond Market Adjustment This Week - This week, the bond market adjusted again. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 2.5bps and 2.7bps to 1.84% and 2.19% respectively. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds rose by 5.5bps and 3.2bps respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 0.5bps to 1.64% [1][8]. - The adjustment is due to institutional behavior changes. Banks face year - end indicator pressures and profit - taking needs, resulting in insufficient allocation power. Meanwhile, the reform of public fund fees has led to increased short - term selling pressure from passive redemptions of public funds, and some trading institutions such as securities firms have boosted the market trend [1][8]. Seasonal Strengthening of the Bond Market in December in Previous Years - In the past five years, the bond market in December has generally strengthened. From 2020 to 2024, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined in December, with an average decline of 14.0bps. In 2024, the decline was the largest at 34.5bps. Excluding 2024, the average decline from 2020 - 2023 was 8.9bps. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield also declined significantly in December, with an average decline of 18.2bps from 2020 - 2024 [8]. - The front - running effect occurred not only in bull markets (e.g., the end of 2021 and 2024) but also in bear markets (e.g., the end of 2020 and 2022). In bull markets, the yield decline started earlier. In 2024, the yield started to decline significantly in the last week of November, while in 2021 and 2023, it started around early December. In bear markets (2020 and 2022), the decline started in mid - December [8]. Reasons for the Weak and Volatile Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - Banks have been continuously reducing their long - bond holdings since October due to indicator pressures (including interest - rate sensitivity and liquidity indicators) and profit - taking needs, with large banks facing the most significant pressure. These factors, combined with the impact of public fund fee reform, have led to the phased redemption of public funds by banks and wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on public funds and constraining the bond market [2][12]. Easing of Current Pressures - Bank indicator pressures and profit - taking needs are more concentrated in the middle of the quarter, especially in the year - end quarter. Near the end of the quarter or year, these pressures tend to ease, and banks will have new allocation space at the beginning of a new year or quarter. The significant decline in the net financing volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past two weeks indicates that the indicator pressures of joint - stock banks may have started to ease, and allocation demand will gradually recover [3][12]. - The impact of public fund fee reform has been digested to a large extent. The scale of public bond funds has significantly shrunk, decreasing by 51.27 billion shares from the end of June to October, nearly a 10% reduction. If the new regulations provide a sufficient transition period, the short - term impact may be limited [3][15]. Reasons for Allocative Institutions to Increase Bond Allocation - From a quantitative perspective, allocative institutions face the pressure of rising liability growth but insufficient asset supply. Banks are experiencing rising deposit growth and falling loan growth. Near the end of the year, if financial institutions expect low financing demand in the first quarter of next year, they may increase bond allocation in advance. The weak fundamental data in November (both manufacturing and service PMI are below the boom - bust line) indicates that corporate financing demand may be suppressed, and there is a possibility of a year - on - year decrease in credit and social financing in the first quarter of next year. At the same time, due to reduced residential housing purchases, residents' savings will accumulate more in low - risk assets, increasing the possibility of an asset shortage [4][18]. - From a price perspective, bond yields are more cost - effective. The spread between the same - term mortgage loan and the 30 - year Treasury bond in the third quarter of this year was 81bps, the lowest since mid - 2017, indicating that bonds are more cost - effective than loans and other assets [4][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment and recovery, with slight increases in interest rates across various maturities following a rapid decline in rates the previous week [1][10]. - The report highlights that the fundamental data does not present a clear signal for the bond market to adjust, with demand still under pressure despite a slight recovery in CPI and PPI growth rates [2][11]. - It is noted that the adjustments in the bond market since the third quarter are primarily driven by institutional behavior rather than fundamental or liquidity factors, with a significant reduction in bond fund positions due to increased risk appetite in the equity market [3][15]. Group 2 - The recovery in the bond market since October is largely attributed to non-bank institutions replenishing their positions, while the participation of banks and other institutional investors remains limited due to profit-taking pressures and regulatory constraints [4][19]. - The report suggests that the impact of bank regulatory pressures will be more evident in the early to mid-fourth quarter, as banks prepare for asset allocation for the upcoming year [5][20]. - Overall, the report concludes that the bond market will continue to recover amidst fluctuations, with expectations for smoother declines in interest rates towards the end of the fourth quarter, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield [6][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to continue its short - term volatile trend, but the adjustment space is limited. The long - term bond interest rate is expected to decline smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to recover to around 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year. A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy [6][23]. Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its weak and volatile trend. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.80% and 2.12% respectively, with changes of - 0.5bps and + 1.9bps from last week. The yields of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 1.0bps to 1.69%. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds rose significantly by 11.6bps and 17.9bps to 2.11% and 2.31% respectively [1][9]. Seasonal Characteristics of the Bond Market - There is no obvious seasonality in long - term bonds around the National Day. After the holiday, funds tend to be seasonally loose. In the past four years, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by an average of 0.9bp in the first week after the National Day and 0.2bp in October compared with the end of September. The funds in October were not significantly tightened. Considering the current insufficient financing demand and the central bank's care for liquidity, the overall funds are expected to remain loose, and R007 is expected to run around 1.4% - 1.5% [2][10]. Fundamental Analysis - In recent months, the financing demand has been weak, credit has increased less year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing has slowed down. Even if 1 trillion of refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter, the supply of government bonds will still be about 0.7 trillion less than last year. The funds are expected to remain loose, and the asset shortage is expected to intensify. The recent weakening of fundamental data also means that economic stabilization requires low - interest rate support [2][13]. Analysis of Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.5% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 0.7% in the previous month. Part of the improvement is due to the low base last year (a year - on - year decline of 22.2% in August last year), and the other part may be due to the increase in investment income from the good performance of the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly operating income of industrial enterprises in August increased by 1.4 percentage points to 3.4% compared with July. The increase in profit may be more from investment income, and its sustainability needs further observation [3][14]. Stabilizing Forces in the Bond Market - As bond yields continued to rise in the third quarter, allocation - type institutions began to continuously buy bonds, which played a role in stabilizing the market. On the one hand, the current interest rate level is attractive compared with the liability cost of allocation - type institutions. On the other hand, large banks and other institutions are responsible for stabilizing the market, as the new revised evaluation indicators for primary dealers in open - market operations include bond - market making and assess their performance in stabilizing the market during bond - market fluctuations [4][17]. Uncertainties in the Bond Market - The reform of public - fund fees may affect the allocation power of non - bank institutions, especially when the consultation period for the draft opinion expires on October 5. Seasonal changes in some data, such as the possible seasonal rebound of the manufacturing PMI in September (an average increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with August in the past four years), may also affect market sentiment [5][18]. Investment Strategy - A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy (short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates). High - selling and low - buying band operations can be carried out for long - term interest - rate positions. The 10 - year Treasury bond with a yield above 1.8% still has allocation value [6][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The over - rise of bond interest rates at the beginning of the year has been digested, but the bond market repair may not come quickly and is likely to gradually repair in fluctuations. The report suggests a dumbbell - shaped operation, i.e., short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations on long - term interest rate positions. The 10 - year treasury bonds with yields above 1.8% still have allocation value, and the long - term bond interest rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with the interest rates expected to hit new lows this year [6][20]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Bond Market Interest Rate Trends This Week - This week, bond interest rates rose again. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds 250011.IB and 2500002.IB increased by 2.5bps and 5.5bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.79% and 2.08%. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond once exceeded the key point of 1.8%. The interest rates of certificates of deposit and credit also increased. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate rose 1.1bps to 1.68%, and the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bond interest rates soared 10.0bps and 9.7bps to 2.02% and 2.14% [1][9]. Reasons for the Bond Market's Volatility This Year - In the first three quarters of this year, the overall bond market fluctuated and adjusted, making it difficult to obtain stable investment returns. Although affected by factors such as fundamental changes, large - bank bond selling, rising commodity prices due to anti - involution policies since the third quarter, the continuous strengthening of the stock market, and the recent public - fund fee - rate new regulations, the major background was that the over - rise of interest rates at the beginning of the year over - exhausted the subsequent space to some extent [1][9]. Evidence of Interest Rate Over - rise at the Beginning of the Year - From the perspective of capital return rate, interest rates are still in a downward trend. Since 2010, the enterprise return rate has been in a downward trend, with EBIT/total assets dropping from 10.4% in 2010 to 4.4% this year, with an average annual decline of about 40bps. The corresponding interest rates, especially the loan interest rates, have also been in a downward trend, with an average annual decline of 30bps since 2011. The loan interest rates are highly consistent with the bond interest rates. From October last year to January this year, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate dropped by 56bps in total, resulting in a decline in the relative cost - effectiveness of the bond market and forming the continuous fluctuation pattern of the bond market this year [2][10]. Evidence that the Interest Rate Over - rise Has Been Digested - **Trend perspective**: If the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate drops by about 30bps annually, the bond market was basically over - rising in the first half of this year. By September this year, if the year - on - year interest rate decline is 30bps, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate should be around 1.8%, which is consistent with the current level, indicating that the over - rise part has basically been digested [3][11]. - **IRS implied interest - rate cut expectation perspective**: Currently, the IRS no longer contains interest - rate cut expectations, and the expectation of monetary easing has basically been digested. Since the beginning of 2025, the IRS - FR007 spread once widened to about 50bp, but since August 5th, the FR007 - IRS (MA20) spread has been continuously positive, indicating that the market does not imply expectations of looser funds or interest - rate cuts in the next year [3][13]. - **Term spread perspective**: At the beginning of the year, the over - rise of long - term bonds and the tightening of funds led to a significant inversion of the yield curve. As of August 29th, the spread between the 1 - year certificate of deposit and R007 (20D MA) expanded to 16.2bps, significantly higher than the 2024 average of 6.2bps. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit reached 17.3bps, which is very close to the 2024 average of 17.5bps. With the normalization of the curve, the short - end loose liquidity is expected to protect long - term bonds from short to long [4][16]. - **Fundamental and explainable perspective**: By fitting and explaining the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate with GDP growth rate, the average of CPI and PPI, the capital price R007, and the time - trend term, it is found that although the interest rate dropped below one standard deviation of the fitting value in the first half of this year, indicating a certain degree of over - rise in the bond market, it returned to the one - standard - deviation fluctuation range after the interest - rate adjustment in the third quarter, indicating that the interest rate has entered the range explainable by fundamentals [5][17]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market in the Short Term - The stock market trend is uncertain. Although the stock - bond correlation has weakened, a rapid rise in the stock market may still impact the bond market when non - banks still hold a certain position. Public - fund fee - rate new regulations and quarter - end capital impacts may also affect the bond market in the short term. Additionally, the bond market is often seasonally weak in September and October [5][19][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may gradually recover in an oscillatory and progressive manner as the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and commodity pressure eases, but other markets, seasonal factors, and regulatory policies may cause oscillations during the recovery process. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation, and long - term bond rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with rates expected to hit new lows this year [4][6][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Performance This Week - This week, both long - term and short - term bonds remained oscillating. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, 250011.IB and 2500002.IB, changed by - 1.25bps and 0.95bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.77% and 2.03%. After the month - end, the capital price remained loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit stayed at around 1.67%. Credit interest rates declined slightly, with the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 1.7bps and 1.9bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.92% and 2.05% [1][9] Weakening Impact of the Stock and Commodity Markets on the Bond Market - The impact of the stock and commodity markets on the bond market has gradually weakened. The 10 - day moving correlation coefficient between the daily interest rate change of the 30 - year active bond and the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from around 0.8 in late July to around 0.15 currently. On one hand, it is due to the change in bond institutional positions; on the other hand, the relative cost - effectiveness of bonds compared with stocks has gradually increased. Since the end of July, the commodity price index has continued to decline, and the Nanhua Industrial Product Price Index on September 4th has cumulatively dropped by 6.3% compared with the high on July 25th [2][10] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The loose capital and banks' under - allocation are the main protections for the bond market. The fundamentals are still under pressure, the demand is not strong, and the financing demand is insufficient, so the loose capital situation remains unchanged. The future asset supply will further decline, and the net financing of government bonds in the next 4 months may significantly decrease compared with the same period last year. For banks, the deposit growth rate is rising while the credit growth rate is slowing down, so banks need to increase bond allocation to make up for the gap, and they may have a high willingness to increase allocation [3][10] Reasons for the Oscillatory and Progressive Recovery of the Bond Market - Other markets still impact the bond market. Although the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened, non - banks still hold a relatively high position in long - term bonds, and a significant rise in the stock market may lead to institutional selling and short - term bond market fluctuations. Seasonal factors may restrict the downward speed of interest rates. September is often a period of interest rate adjustment, and October is an oscillatory period. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may reduce institutional willingness to invest in bond funds, and the redemption behavior may bring short - term adjustment pressure to the market [4][14][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's repair period will continue. In the first stage, interest rates will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether they can break through new lows depends on the performance of other markets and fundamental pressures. It is expected that the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term. If other markets have moderate growth and demand continues to slow, interest rates may hit new lows [7][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Repair Situation - This week, the bond market started a repair rally as expected, with yields across all tenors generally declining. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds dropped by 2.7bps and 2.3bps to 1.71% and 1.95% respectively. The repair of credit bonds was more significant, with the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds falling by 7.8bps and 6.4bps to 1.85% and 1.95% respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit also dropped by 3.6bps to 1.64% [1][9]. - The direct trigger for the bond market repair was the cooling of supply contraction expectations and the correction in commodities and the stock market. The Politburo meeting's mild stance on over - capacity governance led to a 3.8% decline in the Nanhua Industrial Products Index this week, and the stock market also adjusted, reducing risk appetite [1][9]. Fundamental Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Fundamentally, there is an increasing downward pressure. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a larger seasonal decline than in previous years. The new orders index dropped 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The service and construction PMIs also weakened, falling 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points to 50.0% and 50.6% respectively [2][10]. - Without sufficient demand, price increases are mostly structural, and terminal prices are unlikely to rise significantly. Rising upstream prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream sectors, and the cost is often passed on to the mid - and downstream industries, compressing their profits. Supply contraction also reduces investment and financing demand, not directly pushing up interest rates [2][15]. Bond Market's Own Conditions - The overall asset shortage situation persists. In terms of capital demand, there is a slowdown pressure. The bill rate has weakened significantly, with the 6 - month state - owned bill re - discount rate reaching a new low of 0.4% this week, indicating weak credit demand. Government bond supply will also decrease, with the remaining net financing of government bonds in the next five months expected to be 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease [3][16]. - In terms of capital supply, it remains abundant. The scales of bank deposits, insurance assets, wealth management products, and bond funds are all steadily increasing. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity, and the current loose money situation is expected to continue [3][16]. Impact of Treasury Tax Rate Adjustment - The adjustment of the treasury tax rate is mostly a one - time impact, increasing the tax burden on financial institutions such as banks. It benefits old bonds and is negative for financial bonds and new bonds. The new - old bond yield spread may widen by 5.6 - 10.8bps, and the estimated total tax increase is 31.55 billion yuan, mainly borne by banks. Public funds may gain a 3.08% tax advantage in interest income in the short term, but future tax adjustments for public funds need further observation [4][18]. Market Volatility and Fragility - Although the overall situation is favorable for the bond market, market volatility and fragility are increasing. As coupon rates decline, the proportion of trading positions is rising, and market institutions are extending durations to increase capital gains. In the second quarter, the average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds and medium - and long - term credit - bond funds increased significantly by 0.81 years and 0.94 years respectively, the largest single - quarter increase on record [5][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjusted significantly this week, but the short - term impact factors are temporary, and the bond market is expected to enter a repair phase. The short - term interest rate adjustment ceiling is clear, and the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. The bond interest rate is expected to hit a new low in the second half of the year [1][5][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Adjustment This Week - The bond market adjusted significantly this week, with long - term bonds adjusting more notably. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 6.7bps and 8.4bps to 1.73% and 1.97% respectively. The yields of Tier 2 capital bonds of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - also increased significantly, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose by 5.8bps to 1.675% [1][9] - The sharp decline in the bond market this week is due to multiple factors: the expectation of anti - involution policies pushed up commodity prices and the stock market; the central bank withdrew funds in the first four days of this week, and seasonal factors tightened the funds; the bond market adjustment may have led to the net value retracement of some asset management products, resulting in a negative feedback effect of redemptions [1][9] Short - term Nature of Impact Factors - Commodity prices tumbled on the night of Friday after a continuous rise last week. With strengthened regulatory control, the subsequent commodity price rally is expected to cool down, reducing the pressure on the bond market. The current price increase is more based on expectations, and its sustainability is to be observed [2][12] - The central bank's operation on Friday strengthened the protection of liquidity, and funds will not tighten in a trending manner. The central bank's net injection of 8018 billion yuan on Friday and the statement of the deputy governor indicate that the central bank will maintain liquidity stability, which helps to form an adjustment ceiling for the bond market, limiting the continuous adjustment space of the bond market [3][13] Unchanged Bond Market Trend - The bond market is still in an asset shortage pattern, and broad - spectrum interest rates are declining. The supply of assets will decrease in the next five months, while the allocation power is steadily increasing. The reduction of insurance reservation interest rates will further increase the allocation demand for long - term bonds [4][14] - The demand side is not strong, and the export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. The real estate market is weak, and investment and consumption growth rates have slowed down. The impact of anti - involution policies on supply also needs attention. Fundamental changes are the key to determining the interest rate trend [5][19] Bond Market Outlook - After the short - term shock, the bond market will enter a repair phase. The interest rate is expected to return to the previous level in the first stage, and whether it can break through the previous low later depends on the fundamentals and the pressure of asset shortage. The bond interest rate is expected to hit a new low in the second half of the year [5][19]