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不用觉得3900很虚,因为一直都是这样的
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 16:13
很多人问我对红十月怎么看。券商喊得很凶,说全球风险偏好回暖,美联储要降息,AI产业又有催 化;说过去十年十月开门红的概率有七成。 这种统计学叙事,孙少睡我一般当天气预报看。出门带不带伞,看得还是天色。 沪指创了近十年新高,但我觉得两市成交额放了那么大量,结果就顶出这么个涨幅,还是有点虚。上是 上去了,但脸也白了,腿也抖了。但是虚嘛,也不用太担心,毕竟多少年都是这么虚过来的。 市场的钱现在就集中在几个地方,AI算力、半导体、创新药。逻辑都很硬。 AI的故事还在停不下来地那么讲,半导体自主可控是必须要做的事,创新药是老龄化社会的刚需。 但硬逻辑不代表马上就能涨,也不代表什么都能涨。现在就是典型的结构性行情。水在几个洼地里打 转,其他地方都是干的。 不在那几个洼地里就只能看着别人洗澡,自己哗哗地干搓泥儿。 9月份的PMI比上个月升了点,是49.8%,但还在荣枯线下面挣扎。生产指数回到了51.2%。 这数字怎么翻译呢?就是复苏还是复苏了一点的,但要说及格,那还得再发展发展。想买东西的人还是 不够多。 这种宏观情绪会传导到大洋彼岸。美联储那帮人也在纠结。纽约联储出来放风,说因为担心劳动力市场 放缓,支持今年再降息。 听 ...
ETF周报:本周科技ETF领涨,其中AIETF涨幅中位数近7%-20250720
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-20 14:28
证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 ETF 周报 本周科技 ETF 领涨,其中 AI ETF 涨幅中位数近 7% 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周(2025 年 07 月 14 日至 2025 年 07 月 18 日,下同)股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 1.37%。宽基 ETF 中,创业板类 ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 3.17%,收益最高。按板块划分,科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.39%, 收益最高。按主题进行分类,AI ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 6.87%,收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 157.56 亿元,总体规模增加 279.82 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中,上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多,为 3.25 亿元;按板块来看, 大金融 ETF 净申购最多,为 41.04 亿元;按热点主题来看,芯片 ETF 净申购最多,为 43.20 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中,创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低;按板块来看, 消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和;按照细分主题来看,酒、光伏 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低。与前周相比,科 ...
ETF周报:本周科技ETF领涨,其中AIETF涨幅中位数超4%-20250608
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-08 13:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 1.25%. Among broad-based ETFs, the STAR Market ETF had the highest return; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the highest return; among hot theme ETFs, the AI ETF had the highest return [1][13][16] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 3.526 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the SSE 50 ETF had the most net subscriptions; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the most net subscriptions; among theme ETFs, the military ETF had the most net subscriptions [2][27][34] - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and China Southern Asset Management ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs. This week, 7 ETFs are scheduled to be issued [5][55][58] Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week (from June 03, 2025, to June 06, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 1.25%. The median returns of STAR Market, ChiNext, CSI 1000, CSI 500, A500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs were 2.39%, 2.34%, 2.20%, 1.73%, 1.00%, 0.95%, and 0.51% respectively. The median returns of cross-border, commodity, bond, and money market ETFs were 2.18%, 1.44%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [13] - By sector, the median returns of technology, large finance, cyclical, and consumer sector ETFs were 3.02%, 1.80%, 0.85%, and 0.55% respectively. By hot theme, the median returns of AI, chip, and securities ETFs were 4.03%, 3.02%, and 2.44% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of liquor, military, and dividend ETFs were -0.55%, -0.19%, and 0.21% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16] ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 2.9678 trillion yuan, 553.1 billion yuan, and 304.3 billion yuan respectively. The scales of money market and commodity ETFs were relatively small, at 174.9 billion yuan and 157.3 billion yuan respectively [18] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 3.526 billion yuan, with a total scale increase of 35.979 billion yuan; money market ETFs had a net subscription of 1.309 billion yuan, with a total scale increase of 1.324 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the SSE 50 ETF had the most net subscriptions, at 405 million yuan, and its scale increased by 1.294 billion yuan; the ChiNext ETF had the most net redemptions, at 2.306 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 1.095 billion yuan [27][28] - By sector, last week, the technology ETF had the most net subscriptions, at 5.632 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 13.047 billion yuan; the consumer ETF had the most net redemptions, at 1.033 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 567 million yuan. By hot theme, last week, the military ETF had the most net subscriptions, at 1.44 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 1.509 billion yuan; the pharmaceutical ETF had the most net redemptions, at 1.347 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 910 million yuan [32] ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 67.63%, 56.98%, 89.93%, 81.83%, 33.53%, and 77.02% quantile levels respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 30.72%, 26.75%, 53.67%, 26.09%, 20.31%, and 48.51% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of STAR Market ETFs are at the 99.26% and 34.10% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the A500 ETF increased significantly [35][36] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of cyclical, large finance, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 35.51%, 37.16%, 2.06%, and 57.31% quantile levels respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 19.24%, 37.57%, 18.00%, and 33.61% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the technology ETF increased significantly [38] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of military, dividend, and bank ETFs were relatively high, at 99.42%, 99.17%, and 94.05% respectively; the price-to-book ratio quantiles of dividend, bank, and AI ETFs were relatively high, at 97.85%, 76.34%, and 51.94% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of AI and securities ETFs increased significantly [39][42] ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs has maintained an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 41.162 billion yuan in the previous week to 40.709 billion yuan, and the short selling volume increased from 2.056 billion shares in the previous week to 2.119 billion shares [44] - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes last Monday to Thursday, the STAR Market ETF and pharmaceutical ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and CSI 500 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [46][47][49] ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub-fields such as scale index ETFs, industry index ETFs, and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs; E Fund ranked second and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross-border ETFs; China Southern Asset Management ranked third and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [52] - Last week, 7 ETFs were newly established, and this week, 7 ETFs are scheduled to be issued, including Guolianan CSI A500 Enhanced Strategy ETF, Yongying SSE STAR Market Comprehensive Price Enhanced Strategy ETF, etc [55]