February 3, 2026 12:34 PM GMT OVERVIEW Equity analyst Lee.Simpson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 3378 Nigel van Putten Equity analyst Nigel.Putten@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2803 MORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED + Charlie Chan Equity analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Global Technology Webcast M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Memory, Semi Cap and AI Supply Chain Outlook Europe MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+ Shawn Kim Equity analyst Shawn.kim@morganstanley.com +44 ...

January 28, 2026 03:37 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Greater China Technology Hardware: Will Input Cost Hike Change the 2026 Profit Outlook? | M | | Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley | Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | Foundation | | January 28, 2026 03:37 PM GMT | | | | | | | Investor Presentation Asia Pacific | | | | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | | | | | | | Sharon Shih | | | | | | | Equity Analyst ...

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is expected to experience stronger demand, particularly driven by the AI computing infrastructure and a "super cycle" in semiconductor equipment manufacturing, benefiting companies involved in AI chips and DRAM/NAND storage expansion [1][3]. Semiconductor Equipment Sector - KeyBanc Capital Markets highlights that semiconductor equipment manufacturers will be the largest beneficiaries of the AI chip and storage capacity expansion trends [1]. - Citigroup predicts a "Phase 2 bull market" for the semiconductor equipment sector, suggesting a shift from valuation recovery to sustained profit growth, with leading companies like ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials being key players [3]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see significant growth due to the ongoing demand for AI computing and storage solutions, with a focus on advanced manufacturing processes [4][5]. AI Infrastructure Investment - The construction of large-scale AI data centers by tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta is accelerating the expansion of advanced AI chip production and storage capacity [4]. - The global AI infrastructure investment wave is projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, indicating that the current phase is just the beginning [5]. - The semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted value of $772.2 billion in 2025 and $975.5 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand for AI GPUs and storage systems [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The demand for DRAM/NAND storage chips is surging, with prices increasing due to the heightened importance of these products in AI training and inference systems [10]. - TSMC reported a record gross margin exceeding 60% and raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to nearly 30%, indicating strong demand for AI-related chip manufacturing [10][11]. - The semiconductor investment chain driven by AI demand is expected to lead to increased capital expenditures (capex) from major manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Intel [12][13]. Company-Specific Insights - KeyBanc maintains an "overweight" rating on AEI Industries, citing its strong position in the data center sector and potential for revenue growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment [14]. - Applied Materials is recognized for its diverse product offerings across various semiconductor manufacturing processes, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the coming years [15][16]. - MKS Instruments is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for advanced packaging and semiconductor manufacturing technologies, with a focus on maintaining a strong market share in NAND and advanced packaging sectors [18].

Group 1 - Nvidia has officially surpassed Apple to become TSMC's largest customer, contributing approximately 13% to TSMC's total revenue [1][3] - The shift in customer dynamics is driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, while the growth in consumer electronics has slowed down, leading to a significant change in the semiconductor industry's core drivers [3] - TSMC's revenue structure reflects this industry shift, with a substantial increase in revenue from high-performance computing, while smartphone business revenue continues to decline [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's demand for AI GPUs has led to a situation where more than half of TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is consumed by Nvidia [3] - Apple, despite still holding over half of TSMC's initial capacity for 2nm chips, has lost its previous priority in capacity allocation and is now diversifying its supply chain to mitigate risks [3] - Huang Renxun's early ambition to become TSMC's largest customer has now been realized, marking a significant milestone in the relationship between Nvidia and TSMC [3]

Group 1: Earnings Reports and AI Investment Focus - Intel will be the first major U.S. company to report earnings after the market closes on the 22nd, with a focus on AI investments and PC chip sales [2] - Major tech companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to continue increasing their investments in AI data centers, with Amazon planning to invest $125 billion by 2025 [3][4] - Apple's earnings are anticipated to show strong growth driven by robust iPhone sales, with CEO Tim Cook predicting the first quarter will be the company's best ever [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance of Tech Giants - The "Seven Giants" of the tech sector have shown performance divergence, with only Alphabet and Nvidia outperforming the S&P 500 in the past year [7] - Concerns about the AI hardware cycle and valuation pressures are affecting Nvidia's stock, with potential gross margin compression due to rising memory prices [6] - Market analysts suggest that the differentiation among AI beneficiaries is becoming more pronounced, with companies that can effectively leverage AI investments likely to perform better [8][9] Group 3: Future Outlook and Sector Impacts - The market is expected to shift focus from major AI enablers to sectors that benefit from AI, such as healthcare, industrial, and financial industries [9][10] - Companies in the semiconductor sector are viewed favorably due to their involvement in AI infrastructure, with a preference for Asian semiconductor stocks due to attractive valuations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "arms race" in the AI sector has led to a divergence among the "Seven Giants" of the tech industry, with a growing focus on how these companies can monetize their substantial investments in AI technology [1][2]. Group 1: AI Investment and Financial Performance - Major tech companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are planning to significantly increase their investments in AI data center infrastructure, with Amazon projecting $125 billion by 2025 and Google raising its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $91 billion and $93 billion [4]. - Meta's CFO updated the company's 2025 capital expenditure expectations to a minimum of $70 billion, indicating that spending growth in 2026 will be driven by AI infrastructure costs and talent acquisition [4]. - Microsoft anticipates its capital expenditures will exceed $88.2 billion in 2026, with a record $34.9 billion spent in the first quarter of 2026, primarily on data centers and AI tool development [5]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Stock Performance - The market expects strong revenue growth for these companies, with projections of 21% growth for Amazon AWS, 25% for Microsoft's commercial cloud, 35% for Google's cloud business, and 30% for Meta's overall revenue [5]. - The divergence in stock performance among the "Seven Giants" has become evident, with only Alphabet and Nvidia outperforming the S&P 500 index in the past year, while Apple and Tesla have underperformed due to insufficient AI investments and slowing electric vehicle sales, respectively [8][9]. Group 3: Future Trends and Investment Focus - Analysts suggest that the market is beginning to differentiate between companies that can successfully leverage AI investments and those that may struggle, indicating a shift towards identifying "AI beneficiaries" in various sectors such as healthcare, industrial, and finance [10][11]. - The ongoing AI investment trend is expected to enhance productivity and efficiency across industries, with some companies experiencing significant reductions in technology update cycles due to AI advancements [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become TSMC's largest customer, surpassing Apple, which previously held this position for many years [1][3][5]. Group 1: Nvidia's Rise - Nvidia's revenue has surged due to the booming demand for AI GPUs, with enterprise clients willing to spend billions on these processors [2][5]. - Nvidia's sales are projected to grow by 62% by January 2026, while Apple's product revenue is expected to grow only by 3.6% by December 2025 [5][7]. - The demand for high-performance chips driven by AI is significantly outpacing the growth of smartphone sales, which have plateaued [7][8]. Group 2: Apple's Challenges - Apple is facing increased chip prices from TSMC and may no longer have priority production rights, which could hinder its competitiveness [2][3]. - Apple's revenue growth rate has slowed to single digits, contrasting sharply with Nvidia's rapid growth [7][8]. - The competition for TSMC's capacity has intensified, with Nvidia and AMD taking up more space on the production lines, making it harder for Apple to secure its needs [3][11]. Group 3: TSMC's Performance - TSMC reported a 36% revenue growth, reaching $122 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% in the last quarter [5][8]. - The sales of high-performance computing chips, including AI chips, grew by 48%, while smartphone revenue only increased by 11% [7][8]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are expected to rise significantly, indicating a strong investment in future technologies [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift in customer dynamics at TSMC reflects broader industry trends, with AI driving demand for advanced chips while smartphone growth stagnates [7][15]. - Nvidia's business model allows for high margins, but it faces risks related to inventory surplus, while TSMC must balance capacity expansion with market demand [18][19]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a transformation, with Nvidia's influence growing at the expense of traditional players like Apple [19][20].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards AI-driven demand, with a preference for AI semiconductors over non-AI counterparts. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with both logic and memory sectors being attractive for investment [6][10][87]. Key Companies Mentioned - **TSMC**: Identified as a top pick in the AI semiconductor space, with expected revenue CAGR of 60% from AI semis between 2024 and 2029 [6][33]. - **SMIC**: Mentioned as a significant player in the semiconductor industry [6]. - **MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, Winbond, Phison, Nanya Tech**: Other notable companies highlighted for their roles in the semiconductor landscape [6]. Core Insights - **Demand Drivers**: - Tech inflation is anticipated to impact demand due to rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory, creating margin pressures for chip designers [6]. - AI cannibalization is a concern, as AI technologies may replace certain human jobs, affecting overall demand [6]. - The proliferation of generative AI is expected to drive demand across various verticals, including robotics and AI glasses [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in non-AI semiconductors [6]. - The memory sector's stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive industry view on Greater China technology semiconductors [16]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - **TSMC**: - Current share price is 1,760 TWD with a target price of 2,088 TWD, indicating a 19% upside potential [8]. - Expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.6, 18.9, and 15.7 respectively, with EPS growth rates of 46%, 40%, and 21% [8]. - **SMIC**: - Current share price is 77.0 HKD with a target price of 80.0 HKD, indicating a 4% upside potential [8]. - Expected P/E ratios are not meaningful (NM) due to negative growth projections [8]. Potential Risks - **Supply Chain Issues**: The semiconductor supply chain is facing challenges, including inventory management and the prioritization of AI semiconductors, which could lead to shortages in non-AI products [6][14]. - **Economic Factors**: Rising costs and inflation in the tech sector may impact overall demand and profitability for semiconductor companies [6]. Additional Insights - **Capex Trends**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a projected 65% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025 [52]. - **AI Semiconductor Market Size**: The global semiconductor market size is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, driven largely by cloud AI [85]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor industry, particularly in relation to AI technologies.

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is experiencing strong demand in the hyperscaler market, leading to an upgrade from KeyBanc analyst John Vinh to Overweight with a price target of $270.00 [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - KeyBanc previously downgraded AMD due to concerns about a potential demand gap between MI355 and the upcoming MI455 platform, but recent supply chain checks have alleviated these worries [2] - Supply chain data indicates that AMD is nearly sold out of server CPUs for 2026 due to the surge in hyperscaler demand, with a potential price increase of 10-15% expected in Q1 2026 [3] Group 2: Revenue Projections - KeyBanc estimates that AMD's server CPU and AI GPU business will see significant growth, with AI revenues projected to reach $14-$15 billion this year [4] - Server CPU sales for AMD are expected to grow by at least 50% this year, with indications of 200,000 MI355 GPUs in the first half and a ramp-up of MI455 in the second half, targeting 290,000-300,000 units for the Helios solution [5]

Core Insights - The global semiconductor industry is expected to experience a stronger demand in the coming year, driven by the AI computing infrastructure wave and a "super cycle" in memory chips, benefiting semiconductor equipment manufacturers significantly [1][2] - Major investment firms like Citigroup and KeyBanc Capital Markets predict a "Phase 2 bull market" for semiconductor equipment, with a focus on leading companies such as ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials [1][2] Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is identified as a major beneficiary of the surging demand for AI chips and DRAM/NAND storage chips, with expectations of a robust growth trajectory leading into 2026 [1][2] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 22.5% in 2025, reaching a total value of $772.2 billion, and further expanding to $975.5 billion in 2026, indicating a year-on-year increase of 26% [5] AI Infrastructure Investment - The AI infrastructure investment wave is still in its early stages, with estimates suggesting a total investment of $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, driven by the demand for AI computing hardware [3][4] - Companies like TSMC are experiencing significant growth, with a projected revenue increase of nearly 30% in 2026, largely due to the demand for AI-related chips and advanced packaging technologies [9][10] Key Players and Strategies - KeyBanc has raised target prices for semiconductor equipment companies, including AEI Industries, Applied Materials, and MKS Instruments, reflecting a bullish outlook on their growth potential [12][14][16] - Applied Materials is expected to benefit from its diverse product offerings and strong position in advanced packaging and DRAM markets, with a target price increase from $285 to $380 [14] - MKS Instruments is anticipated to see accelerated revenue growth due to its strong cash flow and leading position in power products for NAND etching tools [16][17]