焊花在二十米高空稳定闪烁， 30 公斤的汽车轮毂在流水线上精准流转。 持续的机械低鸣中，电弧一次次落 下，灼穿金属、完成作业。 支撑这一切 连续运转的， 正 是开普勒 K2 「大黄蜂」。 与此同时，在大洋彼岸的北美， 波士顿动力 Atlas 在不断挑战运动的极限并向工业场景发起挑战， 特斯拉 Optimus 描绘着走进千家万户的通用愿景， Figure 03 与 1X NEO 则深耕服务与交互的细腻体验。它们的 演示视频令人惊叹，技术路线充满想象力，但距离规模部署还有不少的距离。 左右滑动 一边是 在实验室中 深耕的 技术突破 ，另一边 则是在工厂中落地的 "生产力"。 当北美人形机器人军团仍在 为更灵活、更炫酷的动作反复打磨时， 以开普勒为代表的中国力量，已带着 覆盖 3C 电子、汽车零部件、仓 储物流三大领域的上千台订单 ， 深入 世界最庞大、最复杂的工业制造腹地。 这不是一场技术的较量，而是一场路线的对决：一边是技术驱动的理想主义，另一边是场景驱动的实用主义。 而开普勒以 "重载续航双碾压、执行器技术代差、商业化落地领先" 三大核心优势 ，走上了一条已被验证、 可复制、正迈向规模化的落地之路。 ▍ 序幕 ...

henry 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 美国机器人界掌管demo的神，Figure，冷不丁又出一拳！ 这一次，他们带来了最新的具身大脑 Helix 02 以及最新的家务demo。 在推特上，Figure老板Brett直接放话： 机器人跳舞没什么难的，真正的难点在智能控制。 我们最强的模型来了，能完成复杂和长时序的任务。 话虽狂，但这次的demo，真的很有说服力。 在视频中，搭载Helix 02的Figure 03，在普通的家庭厨房里，自主完成了洗碗机取盘并放入橱柜的整套流程。 在接近4分钟 的完整任务里，机器人从头到尾 没有重置、没有人工干预、也没有遥操作 ，行走、抓取、搬运、放置等61个操作全部连成一条 连续动作链。 Figure直言，这是迄今为止，人形机器人 自主完成的时间跨度最长、复杂度最高 的任务。 而且必须强调的是，这一次Helix 02 不再是上下半身分别控制 ，而是把视觉、触觉等感知统一接入， 由一个系统直接输出全身动作的端到端 其中新引入的system0还基于1000小时人类数据训练，替代了之前手写的10万多行代码。 对此，前CMU机器人研究员Chong Zhang也表示： ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The human-shaped robot's ability to run smoothly represents a significant technological leap from mere functionality to human-like capabilities, indicating a potential shift towards practical applications in complex environments [9][20] - The competition in the humanoid robot industry has evolved into a multi-dimensional strategic game, with different focuses across the supply chain, emphasizing the need for companies to integrate technology, establish standards, and meet real industry demands [22][30] - The future of humanoid robots hinges on overcoming five critical conditions: technological maturity, cost control, clear market positioning, infrastructure development, and societal acceptance [30][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: The Impact of Robot Running Demonstrations - The recent running demonstrations by Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI have generated significant global interest, suggesting a potential breakthrough in the commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6] - These demonstrations challenge the notion that advanced robotics can only exist in controlled environments, indicating a shift towards practical, scalable applications [31] Section 2: Technical Breakdown of Running Capabilities - Achieving running capabilities involves overcoming substantial technical challenges, including dynamic balance, rapid response times, and energy efficiency [10][19] - The transition from walking to running signifies a fundamental change in robotic capabilities, moving from static to dynamic balance, which is essential for operating in unpredictable environments [12][20] Section 3: Business Logic Behind the Demonstrations - The timing of these demonstrations reflects a strategic move by industry leaders to signal their technological advancements and readiness for market integration [32] - Both Tesla and Figure AI are pursuing different paths: Tesla aims for a universal platform while Figure AI focuses on specific industrial applications, highlighting the diverse strategies within the industry [26][30] Section 4: Industry Chain Dynamics - The competition among suppliers, manufacturers, and application developers is intensifying, with each segment vying for control over standards and market share [22][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust ecosystem that supports the development and deployment of humanoid robots in real-world applications [30] Section 5: Future Outlook - The next few years are critical for validating the feasibility of humanoid robots, with key indicators including commercial orders, supply chain formation, and cost reduction trends [31] - The industry is at a pivotal moment, transitioning from experimental demonstrations to practical implementations that can deliver economic value [31]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from functional exploration to commercial implementation by 2026, with significant technological differentiation and market expansion observed globally [2] - The focus has shifted from pure hardware development to integrated soft and hard solutions, driven by advancements in key components like high-capacity memory and electronic skin [2] Industry Dynamics - Developers are now prioritizing the practical application of humanoid robots, moving towards mass production and real-world use cases [3] - Companies like Figure AI and 1X are targeting the home market with robots that feature soft fabric coverings, while Chinese firms such as Yushu, Xiaopeng, Midea, and others are focusing on diverse forms to enhance operational efficiency in specific industrial or outdoor scenarios [3][8] Key Component Analysis - The cost structure of the humanoid robot supply chain is becoming clearer, with the motion layer accounting for approximately 55% of the BOM cost, followed by the cognitive layer at 23%, the sensing layer at 15%, and the power layer at 7% [4] - Memory specifications are increasing due to AI model demands, starting from 32GB and moving towards a mainstream of 64-128GB; core actuation components like planetary roller screws are becoming essential for high thrust requirements [4] Quarterly Trend Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 shows a trend towards practical and structural transformation in the humanoid robot industry, with manufacturers focusing on task execution capabilities post soft-hard integration [5] - Products with simpler designs that lower manufacturing barriers and provide commercial value are emerging, creating a faster path to mass production [5]

结合当下拥挤度和过往春季躁动胜率（2月）来看，目前拥挤度不高甚至极低、 春季躁动中胜率不错的AI应用（软件、传媒）、机器 人、创新药、储能可能是12月择机布局的重要方向。 02 美国或发布机器人行政命令 01春季躁动前，关注哪些方向？ 国海证券认为，每年2月是常规春季躁动区间，整体胜率最高。结合当下市场环境看，今年春季躁动行情或提前"抢跑"： 整体日历效应前移以及12月下旬美国11月就业、价格数据开始密集发布后，降息预期可能更加清晰， 有可能会出现12月下旬到明年1 月出春季躁动前移、成长风格提前回归的情况。 哪些方向值得关注： 一方面可以按照日历效应继续持有白电和银行，另一方面如果成长风格再度回踩，可以为可能提前的春季躁动做好准备。 美国政府正考虑在明年发布一项关于机器人技术的行政命令。美国商务部发言人回应称："我们致力于推动机器人和先进制造业，因为 它们是让关键生产回流美国的核心。"据一位熟悉计划的人士透露，美国交通部也正准备成立一个机器人工作组，可能在年底前宣布。 除此以外，美国国会议员对机器人技术的兴趣也在上升，共和党人曾提出设立国家机器人委员会。 东方证券汽零团队认为，此次消息反映了美国对人形机器人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The Trump administration is placing significant emphasis on the robotics industry, which is expected to experience synchronized development both domestically and internationally. This reflects a growing policy support level for humanoid robots, indicating their potential as a core component of U.S. manufacturing and technological competitiveness [2][12] - The report suggests that companies within the automotive supply chain that can integrate with Tesla and Figure's robotics ecosystem are likely to benefit. It recommends continued attention to humanoid robotics, T-chain, liquid cooling supply chains, Huawei's supply chain, and companies leading in intelligent driving technology [3][14] - November saw a mixed performance in passenger vehicle sales, with some new energy vehicle brands like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng maintaining strong year-on-year growth. Overall, the report anticipates limited overdraw in domestic passenger vehicle sales by year-end [14][16] Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while retail sales were 879,000 units, showing a 2% increase year-on-year [16] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 26.766 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [16] Market Trends - The automotive sector overall saw a 1.3% increase, with sub-sectors like motorcycles and commercial vehicles performing particularly well [24][28] - Notable companies such as BYD and SAIC Motor reported varied performance in November, with BYD's sales down by 5.3% year-on-year, while SAIC's sales decreased by 3.7% [36][40] Key Company Announcements - BYD reported sales of 480,200 units in November, while Geely's sales increased by 24.1% year-on-year [36][37] - Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motors also reported positive sales growth, with Changan's sales up by 2.5% and Great Wall's by 4.6% [39][41] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that over 11 months, more than 11.2 million vehicles were replaced through trade-in programs, contributing significantly to related sales [54] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages leading Chinese companies in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles to expand internationally [56]

Technology & Design Philosophies - Figure AI and Sunday Robotics adopt a "Sensory Redundancy" approach, using additional hardware like hand-mounted cameras to enhance perception and compensate for AI limitations [1] - Figure 03's hand incorporates a palm-mounted camera system to provide a "macro view," expanding the field of view by 60% and reducing latency by 75% (two times frame rate with one-quarter latency) [1] - Sunday Robotics prioritizes practicality, opting for a three-finger gripper for its Memo robot, deeming it sufficient for 99% of household tasks [1] - Tesla, under Elon Musk's "First Principles" philosophy, avoids adding a camera to Optimus's hand, relying on head-mounted vision, proprioception, and tactile sensors [1][2] Sensory Capabilities & Data Processing - Figure 03's fingertip sensors have a sensitivity of 3 grams, enabling the detection of minute vibrations preceding slippage [1] - Figure 03's hand transmits data at 10 Gbps using mmWave technology to its Helix AI model, creating a closed-loop system [1] - Sunday Robotics utilizes "Behavioral Cloning" by collecting "in-the-wild data" from 2,000+ individuals performing household tasks while wearing skill capture gloves [1] - Tesla Optimus leverages its "Occupancy Network" technology inherited from Tesla FSD, enabling it to construct 3D models and maintain object permanence even when objects are occluded [2] Market Positioning & Future Implications - Tesla aims for an Optimus price point of $20,000 - $30,000, emphasizing "generality" and "scalability" to achieve cost-effectiveness [2] - Sunday Memo targets the home appliance market with a focus on affordability and practicality for tasks like dishwashing and cleaning [2] - Figure AI aims to dominate high-end manufacturing, providing precision and reliability in tasks such as assembling electronics and handling hazardous materials [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the humanoid robotics industry [7]. Core Insights - The humanoid robotics concept index experienced a decline of 5.68% from November 16 to November 21, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points. However, year-to-date, the humanoid robotics index has increased by 57.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 41.26 percentage points [2][12]. - Notable stock performances include Weichuang Electric with a weekly increase of 18.56%, while Fangyuan Co. saw the largest decline at 21.32% [17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The humanoid robotics index fell by 5.68% during the specified week, while year-to-date performance shows a significant increase of 57.83% [12][2]. - Weichuang Electric and Fangyuan Co. had the highest weekly gains and losses, respectively [17]. Weekly Highlights Policy Developments - Hubei's provincial leadership emphasized the need to enhance scene applications, particularly in integrating "Beidou + humanoid robots" and "Beidou + artificial intelligence" [20]. - Chongqing's Economic and Information Technology Commission released a plan to accelerate the application of embodied intelligent robots in enterprise digital transformation projects [21]. Product and Technology Iteration - Figure AI announced that its second-generation humanoid robot, Figure 02, has participated in the production of 30,000 vehicles at BMW's Spartanburg plant, loading over 90,000 components [22]. - UBTECH's annual production capacity for industrial humanoid robots is projected to reach 5,000 units by 2026 [22]. - Diguo Robotics partnered with Fourier to enhance humanoid robots' capabilities in emotional perception and semantic understanding [23]. Investment and Financing - The embodied intelligence company Star Epoch completed nearly 1 billion yuan in Series A+ financing, led by Geely Capital [25]. Key Company Announcements - GAC Group plans to initiate large-scale production of humanoid robots by 2027, aiming for a production value exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2030 [26]. - Gree Electric has developed core components for humanoid robots, including joint modules [27]. - Shengshi Technology is advancing the localization of the NAO robot supply chain and is set to launch the NAO7 model soon [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The report suggests that companies involved in the supply chain for Tesla, Figure, and domestic robot manufacturers are expected to benefit, with competitive domestic brands and those leading in intelligent driving technology likely to expand their market share [3][14] - Continued focus on humanoid robot chains, T chains, liquid cooling supply chains, Huawei supply chains, and intelligent driving supply chain companies is recommended [3][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Domestic and international robot companies are iterating and advancing mass production, with a significant focus on the humanoid robot industry chain [2][11] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to enter a phase of scale production from 0 to 1 by 2026, with several companies accelerating their IPO processes [8][11] Sales Tracking - From November 1 to 16, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [17] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 24.795 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% [17] Market Performance - The automotive sector overall experienced a decline, with the automotive industry index down by 5.1%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [31] - The report highlights significant declines across various sub-sectors, including passenger vehicles and automotive parts [31][32] Key Company Announcements - Companies like Geely and XPeng reported significant revenue growth, with XPeng's third-quarter revenue increasing by 101.8% year-on-year [46][45] - Geely's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 239.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [45]

Group 1 - Zhiyuan Robotics announced that its humanoid robot, Zhiyuan Expedition A2, successfully completed a 106.286 km walking challenge from Suzhou Jinji Lake to Shanghai Bund, setting a Guinness World Record for the longest journey walked by a humanoid robot [2] - The robot achieved this feat without shutting down, thanks to its rapid hot-swappable battery system [2] Group 2 - Figure AI has officially ceased production of its Figure 02 humanoid robot, which had previously assisted in the production of over 30,000 BMW X3 vehicles and handled more than 90,000 metal parts [3][5] - The Figure 02 robot operated with a cycle time of 84 seconds and maintained an accuracy of over 99% during its deployment [5] Group 3 - A report by OpenPR predicts that the humanoid robot market will reach $13.8 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.2% from 2024 to 2032, driven by advancements in AI, machine learning, and machine vision technologies [6][8] Group 4 - Google DeepMind has hired Aaron Saunders, a former executive from Boston Dynamics, to enhance its robotics capabilities, particularly in integrating AI models into robots [9][11] - This move is part of DeepMind's strategy to advance its Gemini Robotics initiative, enabling AI robots to operate without internet connectivity [11] Group 5 - LG Group is increasing its investment in robotics technology aimed at the U.S. market, including a partnership with Figure AI and potential supply relationships for humanoid robots [12][14] - LG is collaborating with Nvidia to accelerate the development of next-generation technologies, focusing on physical AI and digital twin systems [14]