Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant volatility observed in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [3][4][7]. Precious Metals - Silver futures experienced a drastic drop, with SHFE silver contracts falling by 15%, while gold also saw a decline of over 5% at one point during the trading session [15][31]. - The recent sell-off in precious metals is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and increased trading costs due to margin hikes (gold to 9%, silver to 18%) [7][23]. - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment remains bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tightening stance to control inflation, which diminishes support for precious metal prices [31][30]. Coal and Coke - The main contract for coking coal fell by 3.68% to 1138.5 yuan/ton, while coke prices decreased by 2.64% to 1698.5 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand and ongoing inventory accumulation at steel mills [16][17]. - The market is expected to continue facing weak demand post-holiday, with a focus on inventory digestion rather than new purchases [32][17]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, with WTI and Brent crude both dropping over 3% recently [33][34]. - The SC crude oil contract showed relative resilience, closing down only 0.37% at 465.4 yuan/barrel, despite initial larger declines [33][34]. - Market analysts note that while geopolitical risks remain, concerns about direct military conflict in the Middle East have eased, leading to a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting oil prices [34][18].

Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across different sectors. Silver has experienced a sharp decline, while lithium and lithium battery stocks have rebounded violently [2][19] - The Shanghai silver contract (SHFE ag2604) fell by 16.71%, continuing its downward trend after a previous limit down, while gold showed signs of stabilization with a slight increase of 0.63% [11][30] Precious Metals - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran interactions, have led to a weakened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, exacerbating market uncertainty [5][11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver, with silver's limit set at 23% due to ongoing delivery difficulties [24] Energy Sector - The SC crude oil contract saw a significant drop of 4.93%, closing at 449.4 yuan per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [14][33] - The market is currently in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of diplomatic talks, which could influence oil prices significantly. The OPEC+ decision to maintain current production levels is also a factor in the market dynamics [15][34] Agricultural Products - The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to decrease to around 650,000 tons by the end of February, driven by seasonal shutdowns and post-holiday restocking [7] - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant capital inflow into soybean meal futures as investors anticipate a rebound [10] Silicon Industry - The multi-crystalline silicon futures have rebounded sharply, with the main contract rising by 6.61%, supported by expectations surrounding an upcoming industry conference [12][31] - The production forecast for February has been adjusted downwards to 79,700 tons from an initial 90,000 tons, indicating a slight supply-demand gap in the market [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic crash, with gold prices nearing $4,400 per ounce and silver prices dropping below $72 per ounce, erasing significant gains made throughout the year [1][3][15]. Market Performance - On the previous Friday, gold and silver prices plummeted, with silver falling 26% in less than 20 hours, marking the largest single-day drop in history, while gold dropped 9%, the worst performance since the 1980s [3][17]. - The domestic futures market also saw a "limit down" trend, with significant declines across various sectors, including energy and precious metals, where contracts for SC crude oil and fuel oil hit their limits with declines of 7.02% and 7.01% respectively [3][17]. Regulatory Changes - CME raised margin requirements for Comex gold and silver futures in response to the volatility, increasing gold margins from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, effective February 2 [4][18]. - The Thailand Futures Exchange expanded its price limits for gold and silver futures due to significant price drops, allowing for greater fluctuations in trading [4][18]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the recent declines in precious metals are driven by a deleveraging process rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions, indicating a simultaneous sell-off of precious metals and risk assets [5][19]. - CBA commodity strategist Vivek Dhar noted that the market's reaction to Kevin Walsh's nomination as Fed Chair and the strengthening dollar has pressured precious metals, but he views the current drop as an adjustment rather than a fundamental change, maintaining a bullish outlook for gold prices in Q4 [7][21]. - CMC Markets' Christopher Forbes described the situation as a typical deleveraging phase, where previously accumulated leverage is being cleared, leading to a concentrated sell-off in liquid assets [8][22]. Market Dynamics - The rapid price changes in precious metals are seen as a result of position liquidation rather than a clean macro revaluation, with potential for further declines depending on whether forced selling continues [9][23]. - Analysts from Singapore's OCBC Bank highlighted that the ongoing decline reflects a combination of technical and emotional pressures, with sensitivity to dollar movements and Fed policy uncertainty exacerbating the situation [9][23]. Institutional Role - Increased trading activity from institutions has been noted, as they seek liquidity and manage positions amid heightened volatility, which has also impacted other markets like Bitcoin and equities [13][26]. - The volatility in gold and silver has triggered liquidity pressures and margin calls among institutional investors, contributing to broader market declines [13][26].

Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold has seen a significant decline, with a drop of 7% to $4533.41 per ounce, while spot silver has decreased by 13% to $73.143 per ounce [1] - The market reacted sharply to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a historic drop in gold prices, which fell by 9.25%, marking the largest single-day decline in 40 years [5][6] - The dollar index rebounded significantly following the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a tightening monetary policy [5] Group 2: Commodity Price Movements - The main copper futures contract hit the limit down, falling by 9.01% to 98,580 yuan per ton, while international copper futures also dropped by 9% to 87,250 yuan per ton [4] - Aluminum futures also experienced a limit down, decreasing by 7% to 21,840 yuan per ton, and SC crude oil futures fell by 7.02% to 449 yuan per barrel [4] - The WTI crude oil price dropped by 5.67% to $61.51, while ICE Brent crude fell by 5.48% to $65.52, reflecting a broader trend of declining commodity prices [3][7] Group 3: Economic Implications - The market's sensitivity to Walsh's nomination is attributed to his criticism of excessive quantitative easing and support for balance sheet reduction, which may curb narratives around dollar devaluation [6] - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is more indicative of a deleveraging and liquidity tightening environment rather than a clear macroeconomic revaluation [6] - The strengthening dollar has made oil more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, contributing to the recent declines in oil prices [7]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 快讯：2026年2月2日，SC原油主力合约触及跌停，跌幅7.02%，报449元/桶；燃料油主力合约触及跌 停，跌幅7.01%，报2679元/吨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 快讯：2026年2月2日，SC原油主力合约触及跌停，跌幅7.02%，报449元/桶；燃料油主力合约触及跌 停，跌幅7.01%，报2679元/吨。 责任编辑：赵思远 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

每经AI快讯，2月2日，SC原油主力合约日内跌超6%，现报453.7元/桶。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose collectively, with the US crude oil main contract up 0.15% at $59.43 per barrel and the Brent crude oil main contract up 0.08% at $64.18 per barrel [4]. - London base metals rose across the board, with LME tin up 3.87% at $49840.0 per ton, LME nickel up 3.23% at $18145.0 per ton, etc. [4]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts fell. Coke, glass, etc. fell more than 2%, while palm oil and PVC rose nearly 1% [4]. - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.35%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 5.88%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.52% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [8]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also raised the forecast for 2026. The world economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [8]. - As of January 19, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (Europe route) was 1954.19 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In December 2025, China's crude oil imports were 5597000 tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; refined oil imports were 399000 tons, up 21.1% year - on - year; and refined oil exports were 537000 tons, up 43.6% year - on - year [11]. - India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping importing Russian oil [11]. Metal Futures - In December 2025, China's polysilicon imports were 1873 tons, down 42.8% year - on - year; alumina exports were 210000 tons, up 9.3% year - on - year [14]. - PT Vale Indonesia may face a shortage of mining production quota for its new smelter [14]. - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3870000 tons, up 3.0% year - on - year; ten non - ferrous metals output was 7210000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year [14]. - From January 21, 2026, the daily price limit of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin standards for speculative and hedging trades will be adjusted to 13% and 12% respectively [15][43]. - Chile's copper output is expected to peak at 6.06 million tons in 2033 and then slow down to 5.86 million tons in 2034 [16]. Black - series Futures - Yijinhuoluoqi Dongbo Coal Mine was ordered to suspend production for 2 days due to major safety hazards [19]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 28977000 tons, a decrease of 1173000 tons from the previous period [19]. - In 2025, real estate development enterprises' funds in place decreased by 13.4% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year [20]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 10.3% year - on - year; coal output was 437.03 million tons, down 1.0% year - on - year [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian rapeseed growers, but key details need clarification [22]. - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4125 ringgit per ton, down 2.55% year - on - year; Malaysia's output will be 19.75 million tons, down 2.61% year - on - year; and Indonesia's output will reach a record 51.2 million tons, up 0.39% year - on - year [24]. - In 2025, China's total grain output was 714.88 million tons, up 1.2% year - on - year; pig, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat output was 100.72 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year [24]. - In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 8 million tons [24]. - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year [25]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, and the total supply will reach 183.79 million tons, up 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Financial Market Financial - The Supreme People's Procuratorate deployed to safeguard economic and financial security and punish securities crimes [29]. - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29% at 4114 points [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points [29]. - A total of 451 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 156 pre - announcing good news [30]. - Insurance funds' investment preferences may affect the market style, and the AI and non - ferrous metal sectors have investment opportunities [32]. - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau fined and banned "Jinyongrong" from the securities market for market manipulation [32]. - A fund manager's different operations between personal and fund accounts have sparked controversy [32]. - Rumors about false accounts for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions are untrue [32]. - Yunbao Intelligence launched its A - share IPO process, aiming to be the first domestic DPU stock [33]. Industry - Five departments jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate them in multiple industries by 2027 and expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [34]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [34]. - China successfully launched the 19th group of satellite Internet low - orbit satellites [35]. - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise on January 21, 2026 [36]. - Micron Technology warned of a shortage of memory chips due to the surging demand for high - end semiconductors in AI infrastructure [36]. - High - end spirits demand has shrunk, leading to inventory backlogs and production shutdowns in the industry [36]. Overseas - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [37]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit to discuss Trump's tariff measures and consider counter - measures [37]. - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies of 1500 - 6000 euros, open to all car manufacturers [38]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026 [38]. - Ueno Zoo in Tokyo will return the giant panda twins "Xiaoxiao" and "Leilei" to China [39]. International Stock Markets - European stock markets fell across the board, with the German DAX index down 1.34%, the French CAC40 index down 1.78%, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.39% [40]. - Asian stock markets had a mixed performance. The Japanese market had a "double - kill" of stocks and bonds, while the South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [40]. - Norway's central bank investment management company significantly reduced its holdings of London small and medium - cap stocks [40]. - US investor Elliott opposed Toyota Industries' privatization proposal [41]. Commodity - The price limit and margin standards of lithium carbonate futures contracts on the GZEX will be adjusted from January 21, 2026 [43]. - International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased [43]. Bond - The domestic bond market was weak, with most treasury bond futures closing down [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 54 points to 6.9636 at 16:30 on Monday [45]. - The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.05, and non - US currencies mostly rose [47]. - Hedge funds increased their short positions on the yen before the Japanese election [47]. - JPMorgan Chase downgraded the ratings of emerging market currencies and the South African rand [47]. 4. Upcoming Events - There will be 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the Chinese central bank's open market at 09:20 [49]. - Press conferences will be held by the State Council Information Office at 10:00 and 15:00 [49]. - Executives from BlackRock, the EU Commission, the UK Treasury, Canada, etc. will speak at the World Economic Forum [49]. - The 40th AAAI Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held [49]. - Netflix and 3M will release their financial reports [49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising demand for precious metals due to increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion, particularly following the announcement of tariff increases by the U.S. government [1] - The main contract for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.35%, closing at 1053 yuan per gram, while the main silver contract surged by 5.88%, reaching a record high of 23565 yuan per kilogram [1] - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 0.52%, settling at 440 yuan per barrel, indicating a slight decline in oil prices amidst the broader market volatility [1] Group 2 - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set to open on January 20, with an estimated increase of approximately 85 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices based on a 2% change in reference crude oil prices [1] - If the price adjustment is implemented, it is estimated that filling a 70-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 4 yuan for consumers [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court supporting Fed Governor Cook [1] - U.S. President Trump stated that if the Greenland deal is not reached, tariffs on European countries will be implemented [2] - Eurozone finance ministers have selected Vujicic to replace Cindos as Vice President of the European Central Bank, starting June 1 [3] Group 2 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that if Iran attacks Israel, a strong retaliation will occur; there will be no Turkish and Qatari soldiers in Gaza [5] - Morocco accepted Trump's invitation to join the Gaza "Peace Committee," while French President Macron has not yet accepted the invitation [6] Group 3 - International precious metals futures saw significant gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.77%; international oil prices slightly increased, with U.S. oil main contract up by 0.15% and Brent crude March futures closing at $63.94 per barrel [7] - Shanghai gold main contract rose by 1.35% to 1053 yuan per gram, while Shanghai silver main contract increased by 5.88% to 23565 yuan per kilogram; SC crude oil main contract fell by 0.52% to 440 yuan per barrel [8] Group 4 - Finnish President Stubb expressed doubt that the U.S. would militarily control Greenland [9] - Important economic data, including Germany's December PPI month-on-month and the UK's November three-month ILO unemployment rate, will be released on January 20 [10]

Market Overview - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.83, closing at $59.19 per barrel, a decline of 4.56% [2] - The March delivery price of Brent crude oil futures dropped by $2.76, closing at $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of 4.15% [2] - The main contract for SC crude oil fell by 2.34%, settling at 442 yuan per barrel [2] Geopolitical Developments - Following successful military actions against Venezuela, the U.S. is intensifying its rhetoric towards Cuba, indicating potential stronger measures unless the Cuban government changes its current policies [2] - The U.S. military has recently seized a sixth oil tanker associated with the "shadow fleet," indicating ongoing efforts to control Venezuelan oil sales [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Gunvor, a major independent oil trader, has aggressively purchased North Sea crude amid significant supply shortages from Kazakhstan, highlighting the tightness in the European oil market [2][3] - The supply tightness contrasts sharply with the expected global surplus for the year, pushing the Brent-Dubai spread to its highest level since June [3] - It is anticipated that the export volume of CPC mixed oil will rebound to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in February as weather conditions improve [3][8] Indian Oil Market Adjustments - India's crude oil imports from Russia may stabilize or decline, leading to more Russian oil remaining at sea, with December imports hitting a three-year low [4] - Indian refiners are adjusting their procurement strategies, increasingly sourcing oil from the Middle East, West Africa, and Latin America, despite higher costs [4][8] Investment Insights - Recent declines in oil prices align with expectations that geopolitical premiums are largely sentiment-driven, with potential for rapid decreases if military actions do not escalate [4] - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a medium-term bearish outlook on oil prices [9]