营收、经调整净利润、汽车业务表现等均创下历史新高。其中营收连续三个季度突破千亿，经调整净利 润连续两个季度突破百亿元大关，汽车收入同比暴增，毛利率行业领先，有望下半年迎来盈利。 "人车家全生态"战略确立以及新十年目标提出以来，小米明显变得不一样了。五年千亿研发投入之下， 手机业务持续站稳高端市场，大家电在多个品类迎来高速增长期，汽车业务更是连续创造爆品。在高速 且确定性的增长之下，外界是时候重估小米了。 逆势增长，小米迎来脱胎换骨 今年第二季度，手机市场大盘并未迎来太多好消息。 市场研究机构IDC发布的最新报告显示，2025年第二季度，全球智能手机市场实现了1.0%的微弱同比增 长，达到2.952亿部；而中国智能手机市场出货量为6886万台，同比下降4.1%，结束了此前连续六个季 度的同比增长态势。 而在市场大盘整体承压的背景下，小米依然交出了一份让外界惊艳的财报。今年二季度，小米总收入、 核心业务及创新业务收入、经调整净利润等多项指标，均创下历史新高。 大盘承压的第二季度，小米再次交出亮眼答卷。 财报显示，小米今年第二季度总收入达到1160亿元，同比增长30.5%；净利润为119亿元，同比增长 134.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (stock code: 1810.HK) [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 227.25 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.2%, and a net profit (NON-GAAP) of 21.51 billion yuan, up 69.8% year-on-year [3]. - The automotive business reached a record high in revenue and sales, with Q2 revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 233.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4% [3]. - The company plans to enter the European market by 2027, leveraging over 95% brand recognition to replicate its domestic success [3]. - The smartphone business showed strong performance in overseas markets, with Q2 shipments in Southeast Asia ranking first, and market share in Europe rising to 23.4% [3]. - R&D expenses increased by 35.8% year-on-year to 14.48 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a commitment to core technology development [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported an operating profit of 26.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 177.5% [3]. - The automotive business's gross margin improved to 26.4% in Q2, up 11.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 497.73 billion yuan, 630.36 billion yuan, and 724.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 41.72 billion yuan, 55.71 billion yuan, and 66.79 billion yuan [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (stock code: 1810.HK) [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 227.25 billion yuan, up 38.2% year-on-year, and net profit (NON-GAAP) at 21.51 billion yuan, up 69.8% year-on-year [3] - The automotive business achieved record revenue and sales, with Q2 revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 233.9%, and a gross margin of 26.4%, up 11.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The smartphone business showed strong performance in overseas markets, with Q2 revenue of 45.52 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in domestic ASP [3] - The company plans to enter the European market by 2027, leveraging its strong brand recognition to expand its global presence in the new energy vehicle sector [3] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved an operating profit of 26.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 177.5% [3] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected revenues of 497.73 billion yuan, 630.36 billion yuan, and 724.57 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 41.72 billion yuan, 55.71 billion yuan, and 66.79 billion yuan [4][6] - The EPS is projected to increase from 1.60 yuan in 2025 to 2.57 yuan in 2027, with a decreasing PE ratio from 32.78 to 20.48 over the same period [4][6] Research and Development - R&D expenses for H1 2025 rose by 35.8% to 14.48 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to advancing core technologies in AI and electric vehicles [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a complex economic landscape in China for the first half of 2025, where consumer confidence remains low despite signs of recovery in certain retail sectors and a notable increase in international travel and automotive exports [2][6][10]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Savings - Consumer confidence in China is still weak, with the consumer confidence index hovering at historical lows, primarily due to concerns over employment and the real estate market [2]. - National household savings reached RMB 163 trillion in the first half of 2025, with a savings rate above 30% since 2020. The net increase in household savings was RMB 17.94 trillion, significantly higher than previous years [3]. Group 2: Retail Sector Resilience - Despite challenges in categories like apparel and beauty, retail sales showed a 5.0% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, with food sales leading at a 12.3% increase, driven by new retail channels and health-conscious consumption [4]. - The automotive sector also performed well, with overall sales increasing by 11.2%, bolstered by a 37.4% rise in new energy vehicle sales [4]. Group 3: Travel and Tourism Recovery - The tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with international passenger traffic increasing by 9% and 13% in the first two quarters of 2025 compared to 2019 [6]. - Domestic travel also surged, with 329 million trips taken in the first half of 2025, an 18% increase from 2019 [6]. Group 4: Automotive Export Growth - China became the world's largest automobile exporter in 2023, with exports nearing 5.5 million units in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2019 [10]. - The average export price of vehicles rose from RMB 47,000 to RMB 111,000, indicating a significant increase in the "value" of exports [10]. Group 5: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market in China showed signs of recovery in 2025, with Hong Kong's financing activities rebounding to HKD 107.1 billion in the first half, compared to HKD 13 billion in the same period last year [19]. - Consumer-focused companies are attracting significant investment, with notable IPOs in the tea beverage sector [19]. Group 6: Cultural Exports and Global Reach - Chinese cultural exports, particularly in gaming and trendy toys, are gaining traction globally, with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" achieving record sales and significant international player engagement [24]. - The toy brand Pop Mart has also seen substantial growth in overseas markets, with international sales contributing 39% of total revenue in 2024 [24]. Group 7: Foreign Brands in China - Despite a moderate economic growth rate, foreign brands are expanding in China, particularly in the outdoor apparel sector, which has seen a doubling of sales over the past five years [29][31]. - This resurgence of foreign brands reflects the ongoing appeal of international products in the Chinese market and the opportunities presented by the consumption upgrade trend [31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][11] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 227.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, up 69.8% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, the total revenue reached 116 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.4% [3][11] Summary by Sections Automotive Sector - The automotive business saw accelerated scale effects, with Q2 revenue from smart electric vehicles and other innovative businesses reaching 21.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 234%. The company delivered 81,000 vehicles in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 198%, with an average selling price (ASP) of 254,000 yuan, up 11% year-on-year. The gross margin for the automotive business was 26.4%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year [12] Smartphone Sector - In Q2 2025, the smartphone business generated revenue of 45.5 billion yuan, with a shipment volume of 42.4 million units, marking eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth. The company achieved a market share of 24.7% in the 4,000-5,000 yuan price range, ranking first, and a 15.4% market share in the 5,000-6,000 yuan range, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [13] IoT Sector - The IoT and lifestyle products segment achieved a record revenue of 38.7 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a gross margin of 22.5%. The smart home appliances segment performed strongly, with air conditioner shipments exceeding 5.4 million units, a growth of over 60% year-on-year [14] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 474.4 billion yuan, 588.7 billion yuan, and 696.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 24%, and 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 43.7 billion yuan, 56.7 billion yuan, and 71.4 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 1.68 yuan, 2.18 yuan, and 2.74 yuan per share [14][15]

25Q2 营收和经调整净利润均创历史新高。 25Q2 公司总营收 1160 亿元，同比 +30.5%/ 环比 +4.2% ；毛利率 22.5% ，同比 +1.8pct/ 环比 -0.3pct ；经调整净利润 108 亿元，同比 +75.4%/ 环比 +1.5% ，再创新高，其中智能电动汽车及 AI 等创新业务经营亏损 3 亿元。公司稳 步执行"新十年目标"，大规模投入底层核心技术， 25Q2 研发支出 78 亿元，同比 +41.2% ，截 至 25Q2 末公司研发人员 2.26 万人创历史新高。 汽车： Q2 毛利率超预期，亏损持续收窄，期待 25H2 产能加速释放。 25Q2 智能电动汽车及 AI 等创新业务收入 213 亿元，环比 +14.4% ，其中汽车 / 其他业务收入分别为 206/6 亿元； Q2 经营亏损 3 亿元，较上季度经营亏损 5 亿元环比进一步收窄；毛利率 26.4% ，环比 +3.2pct ， 主要系核心零部件成本下降、单位制造成本降低、 SU7 Ultra 交付上量带动。公司 Q2 新车交付 量环比 +7.2% 至 8.1 万辆；关注下半年产能爬坡、新车交付上量节奏； 27 年将进军 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to China Resources Beer with a target price of HK$33.50 [7][10][12] Core Insights - In 1H25, China Resources Beer reported total revenue of RMB23,942 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, which aligns with expectations. Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit rose to RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, marking increases of 11.2% and 23.0% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations [8][11] - Beer sales increased by 2.6% year-on-year to RMB23,161 million, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of 0.4% and volume growth of 2.2%. The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, driven by stabilized ASP due to premiumization and lower raw material prices, which saw an average unit cost decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [9][11] - Baijiu sales, however, declined by 34% year-on-year to RMB781 million, falling short of expectations. Despite the GPM remaining unchanged year-on-year, EBIT turned negative at RMB152 million, compared to a profit of RMB48 million in 1H24, reflecting the impact of anti-extravagance policies starting from 2Q25 in China [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 was RMB23,942 million, up 0.8% YoY [8] - Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit were RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, up 11.2% and 23.0% YoY, respectively [8] - Beer sales increased 2.6% YoY to RMB23,161 million, with ASP up 0.4% and volume up 2.2% [9] Margin Analysis - GPM improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% due to premiumization and lower raw material costs [9] - Baijiu sales dropped 34% YoY to RMB781 million, with EBIT turning negative at RMB152 million [9] Valuation and Forecast - The target price is set at HK$33.50 based on a 17.0x average P/E for 2025-26 [10][12] - Bottom-line forecasts for 2025-27 have been revised up by 12%, 3%, and 2% respectively [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by its automotive business and other segments, despite challenges in its smartphone division [6][8]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, while adjusted net profit was 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% [6]. - The automotive business delivered 81,300 vehicles, generating 20.6 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 26.4% [9][15]. Automotive Business Insights - The automotive division's operating loss decreased from 500 million yuan in Q1 to 300 million yuan in Q2, marking a 40% improvement [9][12]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved from 23.2% in Q1 to 26.4% in Q2, indicating effective cost management and scale effects [13][14]. - Xiaomi's automotive business is close to profitability, needing to reduce costs or increase margins by approximately 6,000 yuan per vehicle to break even [16][20]. Smartphone Business Challenges - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, accounting for 39.3% of total revenue, but showed a decline of 2.1% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter [19]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones fell to 1,073 yuan, down 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased competition and a shift to lower-priced models [21]. IoT and Internet Services Growth - IoT and lifestyle product revenue reached 38.7 billion yuan, a 44.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5% [22]. - Internet services revenue was 9.1 billion yuan, growing 10.1% year-on-year, with a high gross margin of 75.4% [23][24]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Xiaomi's overall expense ratio decreased to 13.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing effective cost control despite entering the automotive sector [28]. - The company achieved cost efficiency through scale effects and shared R&D investments across its product lines [29][30]. Future Outlook - With a backlog of over 200,000 orders for the YU7 model, Xiaomi is well-positioned to meet its annual target of 350,000 vehicle deliveries [17]. - The automotive business is expected to achieve quarterly profitability by late 2025 or early 2026, potentially ahead of competitors like Xpeng and NIO [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 65.4, down from the previous HKD 67.8 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 116 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2%. Adjusted net profit grew by 75.4% to RMB 10.8 billion [1][4]. - The overall gross margin for the group was 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.3 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1]. - The automotive business showed strong performance with a gross margin of 26.4%, benefiting from scale effects and a higher proportion of high-end model deliveries [2][3]. Summary by Sections Automotive Business - Q2 2025 saw a record delivery of 81,302 vehicles, with revenue increasing by 14% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 20.6 billion. The gross margin for the automotive segment improved significantly from 15.4% to 26.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company is optimistic about the automotive business's profitability, especially with its high-end strategy, and anticipates potential profitability in upcoming quarters [2][3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - The smartphone segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 2.1% year-on-year to RMB 45.5 billion and a gross margin contraction to 11.5% [3]. - IoT revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to RMB 38.7 billion, driven by high-value smart home appliances, maintaining a strong gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - Internet services continued to show stable growth, with a 10.1% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 9.1 billion and a high gross margin of 75.4% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak global smartphone demand, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 were adjusted downwards by 2.2%, 0.5%, and 0.2%, respectively. However, net profit forecasts were raised by 9.5%, 4.3%, and 7.8% for the same period [4]. - The target price of HKD 65.4 corresponds to a 30x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's strong IoT and AI ecosystem value [4][14]. Financial Metrics - The report projects a revenue increase to RMB 479.9 billion in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 44.3 billion, representing a 62.2% year-on-year growth [9][12]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.7% in 2026, with a projected net profit margin of 9.1% [12][13].

大和指，基于电动车毛利率预测获上调，上调小米2025至27年每股盈测2%至9%；目标价由72港元上调 至76港元，重申"买入"评级。 手机方面，由于发布的产品有限，该行对小米第三季的出货量转趋审慎，预期第三季的出货量为4220万 部，全年的出货量为1.72亿部，相对于小米全年1.7亿至1.75亿部的目标。 大和发表报告指，小米第二季收入及经调整盈利大致符合市场预期。在SU7 Ultra等的较高平均售价及 规模经济的带动下，第二季电动车毛利率达到26.4%，该行预期第三季电动车毛利率将进一步上升至 28%，这将有可能使小米汽车业务在下半年实现单季或单月盈亏平衡。 ...