东北证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予小鹏汽车-W(09868)"买入"评级，小鹏汽车2025年第三季度交付 量、营收与综合毛利率均创新高，公司通过推出"纯电+增程"双能策略及多款新车型开启强势产品周 期。同时，小鹏加速向"物理AI"转型，发布VLA 2.0大模型、前装量产Robotaxi及人形机器人IRON，推 动智能驾驶与具身智能技术的研发与商业化落地。 东北证券主要观点如下： 2025Q3交付量与综合毛利均创新高 在2025年科技日上，公司清晰地展示了其向"物理AI"公司转型的决心和具体路径。 核心技术VLA2.0：发布第二代视觉-语言-行动(VLA)大模型，通过砍掉语言转译环节，实现从视觉到动 作的直接映射，推理效率提升12倍。该模型在复杂小路场景的平均接管里程提升13倍。VLA 2.0计划于 2026Q1在Ultra车型上全量推送，并有望技术外溢至机器人等其他具身智能领域。 Robotaxi商业化：公司发布了中国首款全栈自研的前装量产Robotaxi，计划于2026年推出3款车型，并在 2026H2开始试运营。虽然在运营经验上与行业头部尚有差距，但凭借前装量产能力和创新的"全共享 +私享"商业模式，有望 ...

Core Insights - Northeast Securities initiates coverage on XPeng Motors (09868) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting record-high delivery volumes, revenue, and gross margin in Q3 2025, driven by a dual-energy strategy and new vehicle launches [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, XPeng Motors achieved total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with net losses significantly narrowing to 380 million yuan [1] - The total delivery volume reached 116,007 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 149.3%, setting a historical record [1] - The company's gross margin surpassed 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1%, indicating a notable improvement in profitability [1] Group 2: Product Strategy - To address user range anxiety, XPeng Motors launched a "pure electric + range extender" dual-energy strategy, with the first range-extended model, X9 EREV, officially launched in November 2025 [2] - The X9 EREV features a 63.3 kWh battery and a third-generation range extender with an efficiency of over 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a CLTC pure electric range of 452 km [2] - Additional range-extended versions of key models such as G6, G7, and P7i are expected to be released in Q1 2026, along with four new models including two SUVs based on the MONA platform [2] Group 3: AI Strategy and Technological Advancements - XPeng Motors is transitioning towards a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific pathways during the 2025 Technology Day [3] - The core technology, VLA 2.0, is a second-generation visual-language-action model that enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times [3] - The company plans to fully deploy VLA 2.0 in Ultra models by Q1 2026 and aims to extend its technology to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [3] - XPeng Motors has introduced China's first fully self-developed mass-produced Robotaxi, with plans to launch three models in 2026 and begin trial operations in the second half of 2026 [3] - The humanoid robot IRON is expected to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, initially piloting in commercial scenarios such as guiding and shopping, with AI technology synergies benefiting both the robot and autonomous driving sectors [3]

Group 1: C-end Smart Vehicles - The core competitiveness of the company lies in its ability to create mass-market hit products, focusing on both range extension and global expansion [2][14][16] - The company plans to launch seven new models by 2026, covering both pure electric and range-extended vehicles, with a focus on long-range capabilities and high oil-electric conversion rates [2][22][26] - The global strategy aims for localized production and channel expansion, targeting a significant increase in delivery scale [2][41][44] Group 2: B-end Robotaxi - The company is leveraging favorable policies and technological breakthroughs to differentiate itself in the Robotaxi market, predicting a market size of 83.1 billion yuan by 2030 [3][50][57] - The Robotaxi project is set to launch in the second half of 2026, with plans for mass production and trial operations [3][70][78] - The company proposes a dual-mode approach for Robotaxi, including a fully shared model and a private ownership model, enhancing its competitive edge [3][73][76] Group 3: Partnership with Volkswagen - The partnership with Volkswagen has evolved from joint vehicle development to deeper collaboration on electronic and electrical architecture and AI chip development [4][93][95] - The company is expected to assist Volkswagen in launching two full-size electric models in 2026, with a projected sales volume of over 2.6 million units in China [4][97][101] - The collaboration is anticipated to enhance the company's positioning as a smart technology solution provider [4][92] Group 4: Robotics - The company's robotics division integrates bionic design with AI capabilities, aiming for commercial applications in various service scenarios by 2026 [5][12][29] - The IRON robot features advanced bionic structures and AI systems, enhancing its interaction and decision-making abilities [5][12][29] Group 5: Flying Cars - The company is on the verge of mass production for its new generation of flying cars, with the A868 model entering the test flight phase [6][12] - The flying car has achieved a range of over 500 km, with significant pre-orders already secured [6][12] Group 6: Financial Projections - The company maintains a revenue forecast of 78.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 92%, while adjusting projections for 2026 and 2027 due to policy uncertainties [7][34] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at -0.71, 1.29, and 3.26 yuan, respectively [7][34]

Core Insights - The company is entering a new phase with its C-end smart vehicle segment, leveraging "range extension and overseas expansion" to enhance its competitive edge in mass-producing popular models [1] - The B-end Robotaxi segment is positioned for growth, with expectations of a market turning point by 2027, potentially reaching a scale of 83.1 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - The partnership with Volkswagen is evolving, positioning the company as a smart technology solution provider, with plans for joint development of electric vehicles and deep collaboration on electronic architecture [2] C-end Smart Vehicle Segment - The company aims to launch seven new models by 2026, covering both pure electric and range-extended vehicles [1] - The focus on local production, R&D centers, and channel expansion is expected to drive the company towards a scale of tens of thousands in deliveries [1] B-end Robotaxi Segment - The company is capitalizing on favorable policies and technological advancements in the Robotaxi market, with a projected market size of 83.1 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - The Robotaxi project is set to begin trial operations in the second half of 2026, with mass production of pre-installed vehicles [1] Partnership with Volkswagen - The collaboration has expanded from initial vehicle development to include joint efforts in electronic architecture and AI chip development [2] - Volkswagen's sales in China are expected to exceed 2.6 million units by 2026, with a new energy vehicle penetration rate above 10% [2] Robotics and Flying Cars - The company's robotics initiative integrates advanced AI with mechanical design, featuring a humanoid structure and high degrees of freedom [2] - The new generation of flying cars, A868, is in the testing phase, with over 7,000 pre-orders and plans for global delivery in the second half of 2026 [2] Financial Projections - The company maintains a revenue forecast of 78.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 92% [3] - Adjustments have been made to the revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027, now projected at 105.8 billion yuan and 151.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35% and 44% [3] - The company is rated as a "buy" based on its transition from automotive to AI technology, with expected earnings per share of -0.71 yuan in 2025, 1.29 yuan in 2026, and 3.26 yuan in 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a disappointing Q3 2025 financial performance, with lower-than-expected vehicle sales revenue and guidance for Q4, indicating ongoing challenges in the automotive market [1][5]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 20.38 billion, below market expectations of 20.47 billion, primarily due to weak vehicle sales [1][26]. - Vehicle sales revenue was 18.05 billion, significantly lower than the expected 18.82 billion, attributed to a decline in average selling price [1][27]. - Service and other business revenue reached 2.33 billion, exceeding expectations of 1.66 billion, driven by significant contributions from technology development services in collaboration with Volkswagen [1][26]. Profitability Metrics - Overall gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, surpassing market expectations of 17.8% [2][38]. - Vehicle gross margin declined to 13.1%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter and below the expected 14.4%, primarily due to falling vehicle prices [2][28]. Q4 Guidance - Q4 vehicle sales guidance is set at 125,000 to 132,000 units, lower than the market expectation of 136,000 units, indicating potential challenges in meeting sales targets [5][21]. - Q4 revenue guidance is projected at 21.5 to 23 billion, also below the market expectation of 25 billion, reflecting ongoing pressure on vehicle pricing [3][25]. Cost Structure - R&D expenses for the quarter were 2.43 billion, exceeding market expectations of 2.28 billion, reflecting increased investment in new product cycles and AI technology [32][36]. - Selling and administrative expenses reached 2.49 billion, higher than the expected 2.35 billion, driven by marketing costs associated with new model launches [36][38]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch five new models in 2026, focusing on enhancing its product lineup and expanding into international markets [6][7]. - Xiaopeng is also advancing its AI capabilities, with plans to commercialize new technologies and expand its Robotaxi and humanoid robot initiatives [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America raised the target price for Xpeng Motors to $27, driven by the validation of its "Physical AI" strategy and technology monetization capabilities [2][4]. Group 1: AI Strategy and Developments - Xpeng Motors introduced the "Physical AI" concept, which aims to enable AI to deeply understand, interact with, and change the physical world, supported by the new VLA 2.0 model [7][10]. - The VLA 2.0 model is powered by Xpeng's self-developed Turing AI chip, boasting a computing power of 2,250 TOPS and a 12-fold increase in inference efficiency [8][10]. - Volkswagen has become the first external customer for Xpeng's VLA 2.0 model and has ordered the Turing AI chip, marking a significant step in the commercialization of Xpeng's AI technology [5][10]. Group 2: Future Product Plans - Xpeng plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026, equipped with four Turing chips (total computing power of 3,000 TOPS) and the VLA 2.0 model, with Gaode Map as its first global ecosystem partner [12]. - The new generation humanoid robot, IRON, is expected to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, featuring solid-state batteries and applications in commercial scenarios like patrolling [12]. - The flying car brand ARIDGE plans to start mass production and delivery of its "land carrier" flying cars in 2026, with an annual production capacity of 10,000 units [13]. Group 3: Financial Adjustments and Projections - Bank of America adjusted its financial forecasts, increasing the expected non-GAAP net loss for 2025 by 36.7% while lowering profit expectations for 2026 and 2027 by 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively [5][16]. - Despite the target price increase, the bank remains cautious about Xpeng's profitability, projecting that the company may face pressure on gross margins due to product mix changes, leading to an expanded loss in 2025 [15][16]. - The new target price of $27 is based on an average of EV/Sales and DCF valuation methods, reflecting a higher sales growth expectation compared to peers [15].

Core Viewpoint - XPeng Motors has gained further recognition from Wall Street following its AI Day, where it outlined its "Physical AI" vision and advancements in artificial intelligence, including the VLA 2.0 model and various innovative products [1][4]. Financial Outlook - Bank of America reiterated a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors, raising the target price for its American Depositary Shares (ADS) from $26 to $27 and the Hong Kong stock target price from HKD 101 to HKD 105 [1]. - The report indicates a cautious adjustment to XPeng's short-term financial outlook, increasing the non-GAAP net loss forecast for 2025 by 36.7% and lowering profit expectations for 2026 and 2027 by 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively [4][7]. Product and Technology Developments - The highlight of the AI Day was the announcement that Volkswagen has become the first external customer for XPeng's VLA 2.0 model and has ordered its self-developed Turing AI chip, marking a significant step in the commercialization of XPeng's AI technology [4][5]. - XPeng's VLA 2.0 model is described as the operating system for controlling the "Physical AI" world, with applications across various products including Robotaxis, humanoid robots, and flying cars [5][8]. - The company plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026, powered by four Turing chips, and anticipates mass production of its humanoid robot by the end of 2026 [8]. Sales and Profit Projections - The report provides updated sales and profit forecasts for XPeng, with slight increases in unit volume and consolidated sales for 2025, 2026, and 2027, while gross profit expectations have been slightly reduced [9]. - The adjusted profit (loss) from operations for 2025 is expected to worsen, with a projected net loss of RMB 1.667 billion, reflecting a 21.4% increase from previous estimates [9].