Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Views - The metal packaging industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" trend, with recommendations for companies like Orijin and Shengxing [5] - White cardboard prices are set to increase, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [5] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September was lower than expected, suggesting a potential recovery in the U.S. real estate chain demand [5] Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - In September, the retail sales of furniture from enterprises above designated size increased by 16.2% year-on-year, while the residential construction area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year [5][34] - Hangzhou announced a limited-time subsidy for home purchases, providing 100,000 yuan in consumption vouchers for eligible buyers [5] - The home furnishing sector is at historical low valuations, presenting left-side layout opportunities [5] 2. Paper and Packaging - As of October 24, 2025, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with white cardboard increasing by 37 yuan/ton and boxboard by 55.4 yuan/ton [5][57] - The industry is expected to see strong demand in Q4 due to upcoming promotions and holidays, with boxboard and corrugated paper prices likely to remain strong [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies with sufficient self-supplied fiber and well-structured capacity, recommending companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [5] 3. Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that the dental care company Dengkang achieved a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [5][7] - The company is expected to enhance its marketing efforts in Q4, capitalizing on the e-commerce sales peak [5] 4. Export Chain - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with September home sales increasing by 1.5% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [5] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong export capabilities, such as Jiangxin and Dream Lily [5] 5. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco launched a new heated tobacco device in Italy, indicating a growing market potential for new tobacco products [5][10] 6. Textile and Apparel - The report highlights the performance of various apparel brands during the Tmall Double 11 sales event, with Uniqlo and Bosideng leading in women's wear [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - British American Tobacco (BAT) has launched a new high-end heated product line, glo Hilo, in Japan, with strong sales momentum observed since its pilot launch in June 2025, indicating potential for accelerated revenue growth in heated tobacco products [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The glo Hilo product line, including glo Hilo, glo Hilo Plus, and compatible consumables, was initially tested in Miyagi Prefecture and has been successfully rolled out nationwide in Japan as of September 1, 2025 [1] - The company aims to position glo Hilo as a "top-tier platform for heated tobacco," targeting to replace some IQOS users and expand its market share in Europe, particularly in Poland, Italy, and Eastern Europe [1][3] - A flagship store for glo products will open in Ginza, Tokyo, on October 18, 2025, further promoting the product line across Japan [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Financial Projections - Japan is identified as the largest single market for heated non-combustible (HNB) products, and the positive sales outlook for glo Hilo is expected to influence global market dynamics [2] - BAT has set a long-term goal to reach 50 million adult consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and to transition to a smoke-free business model by 2035, with Poland being a critical market for this expansion [2] - The company anticipates that the global promotion of Hilo will contribute to a 3%-5% increase in group revenue by 2026 [3]

Core Insights - Smoore International reported its Q1-3 2025 financial data, with revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit of 1.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% [1] - Q3 revenue showed rapid growth at 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5%, while net profit was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [1][2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year due to a decline in gross margin from product mix changes [1] Business Performance - The vaping electronic business is recovering, with self-owned brands achieving steady growth due to successful product iterations and localized marketing [1] - The OEM business is experiencing rapid growth, aided by increased enforcement against illegal products in the U.S. and the introduction of new products in Europe following a temporary ban [1] HNB Product Development - The company launched the HNB product glo Hilo in Japan in September, receiving positive feedback, and plans to enter Poland and Italy soon [2] - The company is developing an HNB technology platform to promote multi-technology research and development, actively expanding new products and customers [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Smoore International is positioned as a global leader in vaping technology, benefiting from stricter regulations in Europe and the U.S. and the exclusive partnership with British American Tobacco for HNB products [2] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 67, 40, and 31 times, respectively, and maintains a "Buy" rating [2]

Macro Strategy - The report identifies three main policy directions for economic stabilization: early use of debt quota, introduction of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, and monetary easing [1][7][8] - It predicts that the economic growth rate for the third quarter will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, with an annual target of around 5.0% achievable if the fourth quarter growth exceeds 4.5% [7][8] - The report suggests that the new round of growth stabilization policies will be moderate, focusing on support rather than strong stimulus [8][9] Public REITs Market - The development of public REITs in China has gone through several stages: exploration (2005-2019), initial formation (2020-2021), innovation (2021-2024), and steady expansion (from July 2024 to present) [1][10] - As of September 2025, there are 75 public REITs with a total issuance of 194.33 billion yuan, indicating a growing market [10] - The report highlights that city investment platforms have played a crucial role in the public REITs market, helping to optimize capital structures and reduce debt through asset securitization [1][10] Company-Specific Insights Smoore International (06969.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan [2][12] - The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 27.2% year-on-year, driven by the successful iteration of new products and local marketing efforts [12] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2][12] New China Life Insurance (601336) - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the third quarter, with estimates ranging from 30 billion to 34.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [3][13] - The increase is primarily attributed to improved investment returns and a favorable stock market environment [13] - The report raises the profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 38.7 billion, 40.2 billion, and 41.8 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][13] Chipone Technology (688049) - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 54.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 112.94% [4][16] - The focus on AI chip development has led to significant market penetration and revenue growth in various audio products [16] - The report maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting revenue forecasts slightly for 2025-2027 [4][16] Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) - The company reported a 21.1% year-on-year revenue increase for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 330 million yuan [5][18] - The growth is driven by strong performance in self-owned brands and a stable customer base in overseas markets [18] - The report maintains a "buy" rating with profit forecasts of 450 million, 550 million, and 650 million yuan for 2025-2027 [5][18] Zhenyu Technology (300953) - The company expects a net profit of 600 million to 620 million yuan for the third quarter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 364% to 413% [6][19] - The report highlights the successful expansion into robotics and the development of new products [19] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is raised to 600 million, 900 million, and 1.3 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a 21.8% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 10.21 billion yuan [8] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) products are gradually being promoted, with positive feedback from customers and plans for expansion into new markets [8] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter regulations in the electronic vaporization market, leading to a recovery in its business [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,168 million yuan, 11,799 million yuan, 13,722 million yuan, 16,166 million yuan, and 18,395 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.04%, 5.64%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is projected to be 1,645 million yuan, 1,303 million yuan, 1,331 million yuan, 2,219 million yuan, and 2,893 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -34.47%, -20.78%, 2.11%, 66.75%, and 30.37% [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is forecasted to be 0.27 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 15.77 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 89.18 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.97 [5] - The company has a total share capital of 6,193.04 million shares [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) saw a significant increase in stock price, rising over 6% to HKD 46.7, with a trading volume of HKD 223 million, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The three core business segments of China Tobacco Hong Kong contribute significantly to its revenue, with the import of tobacco leaf products accounting for 81.4%, export of tobacco leaf products for 11.2%, and cigarette exports for 5.3%, totaling 98.0% of revenue [1] - The gross profit contributions from these segments are 72.6% from tobacco leaf imports, 6.7% from tobacco leaf exports, and 15.0% from cigarette exports, aggregating to 94.3% of gross profit [1] Group 2: Market Developments - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that British American Tobacco recently announced the launch of its glo series in Italy and Poland, including new products glo Hilo, glo HiloPlus, and virto heated tobacco sticks, following a positive market response in Japan [1] - The performance of Hilo in key European markets will be closely monitored for its sales impact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates steady growth in revenue and profit for China Tobacco Hong Kong in the first half of 2025, driven by robust growth in tobacco leaf import and export businesses, along with a decrease in financial expenses [1] - The company aims to maintain its strategic positioning as a platform for overseas capital market operations and international business expansion, suggesting potential for leapfrog development [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [5] Core Views - The report highlights the recent optimization of housing policies in Shenzhen, which is expected to boost the home furnishings sector, indicating a left-side layout opportunity for the home furnishings sector as some leading companies have returned to positive growth in their mid-year reports [2][6] - The light industry manufacturing sector is projected to see improved profitability as domestic demand stabilizes and external demand recovers due to tariff easing, with a focus on companies with strong alpha characteristics in exports [2][6] - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including paper manufacturing, home furnishings, packaging, and oral care, based on their potential for recovery and growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The report notes that the home furnishings sector is experiencing a recovery with many companies' valuations at historical lows, suggesting a favorable investment environment as the fourth quarter approaches [6] - Companies to watch include leading soft furniture brands and custom home furnishing companies, which are expected to benefit from policy changes and internal reforms [6] Paper Manufacturing - The report provides detailed pricing data for various paper products, indicating a mixed trend with some prices increasing, such as corrugated paper, while others like double glue paper have decreased [6][45] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the paper sector, particularly for companies with integrated supply chains and strong domestic sales expectations [6][45] Light Industry Consumption - The report highlights strategic partnerships and product launches in the oral care sector, particularly for companies like Dengkang Oral Care, which is expected to benefit from new product introductions [8] - It also notes the growth in the AI/AR consumer market, suggesting investment opportunities in companies involved in this technology [8] Export Chain - The report mentions Vietnam's strong export performance despite tariff challenges, indicating a favorable outlook for companies with robust overseas supply chains [8] - It recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on international market opportunities [8] Packaging - The report discusses the investment in environmentally friendly materials and the strategic moves by companies like Baixinglong to enhance their market position in the eco-friendly packaging sector [11] - It suggests monitoring companies that are adapting to the green trend in packaging [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in the European electronic vaporization market, and the HNB (Heat-not-Burn) segment is expected to release profit elasticity [8] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding initial high single-digit expectations [8] - The HNB market is in a rapid growth phase, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on new products, indicating potential for future profit contributions [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 11.177 billion yuan - 2024A: 11.799 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.722 billion yuan - 2026E: 16.166 billion yuan - 2027E: 18.395 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (8.06)%, 5.56%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 1.645 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.303 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.329 billion yuan - 2026E: 2.217 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.891 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (34.47)%, (20.78)%, 1.96%, 66.84%, and 30.40% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 0.27 yuan - 2024A: 0.21 yuan - 2025E: 0.21 yuan - 2026E: 0.36 yuan - 2027E: 0.47 yuan [1] - The P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratios at current price and latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 80.56 - 2024A: 101.69 - 2025E: 99.73 - 2026E: 59.78 - 2027E: 45.84 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerating growth of upgraded consumption, particularly in high-end sectors, with a focus on the rising demand for tobacco and alcohol products, especially electronic cigarettes [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The electronic cigarette sector has shown a continuous upward trend since mid-April, with leading company Smoore International's stock price increasing by 100% since the beginning of the year [1] - British American Tobacco (BAT) reported a 2.4% year-on-year increase in revenue from new tobacco products, reaching £1.651 billion, with adjusted gross profit rising by 6.8% to £1.006 billion [2] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment of BAT generated £440 million in revenue, reflecting a 0.8% year-on-year growth, with sales volume increasing by 1.6% to 10.1 billion units [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Smoore International's revenue for the first half of the year was 6.013 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, while pre-tax profit is expected to decrease by 5%-23% [3] - The company has established a strategic partnership with BAT, becoming a core supplier for the Glo Hilo product line, which has enhanced its market position [4] - Smoore has invested significantly in R&D, with a 6% year-on-year increase in R&D spending, and a notable 41.3% increase in investment for medical and beauty aerosol products [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global HNB market is expected to continue growing, with significant potential in the U.S. market as regulations tighten on non-compliant products [7] - Smoore's strategic focus on HNB technology and its partnerships with major clients like BAT position it well for future growth, despite short-term profit pressures [5][7] - The anticipated global rollout of innovative products like Glo Hilo is expected to further solidify Smoore's leading position in the new tobacco industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) experienced a significant stock decline, dropping over 9% at one point, and currently trading down 5.94% at HKD 19.94, with a trading volume of HKD 1.095 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Core client British American Tobacco reported a 12.9% year-on-year decline in global sales of its vaping products (Vuse), with a 13.0% decrease in revenue when adjusted for constant currency [1] - The launch of the new HNB product, glo Hilo, in Japan's Miyagi Prefecture, was priced at JPY 3,980, with nationwide sales set to begin on September 1 [1]