Core Viewpoint - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) saw a significant increase in stock price, rising over 6% to HKD 46.7, with a trading volume of HKD 223 million, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The three core business segments of China Tobacco Hong Kong contribute significantly to its revenue, with the import of tobacco leaf products accounting for 81.4%, export of tobacco leaf products for 11.2%, and cigarette exports for 5.3%, totaling 98.0% of revenue [1] - The gross profit contributions from these segments are 72.6% from tobacco leaf imports, 6.7% from tobacco leaf exports, and 15.0% from cigarette exports, aggregating to 94.3% of gross profit [1] Group 2: Market Developments - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that British American Tobacco recently announced the launch of its glo series in Italy and Poland, including new products glo Hilo, glo HiloPlus, and virto heated tobacco sticks, following a positive market response in Japan [1] - The performance of Hilo in key European markets will be closely monitored for its sales impact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates steady growth in revenue and profit for China Tobacco Hong Kong in the first half of 2025, driven by robust growth in tobacco leaf import and export businesses, along with a decrease in financial expenses [1] - The company aims to maintain its strategic positioning as a platform for overseas capital market operations and international business expansion, suggesting potential for leapfrog development [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [5] Core Views - The report highlights the recent optimization of housing policies in Shenzhen, which is expected to boost the home furnishings sector, indicating a left-side layout opportunity for the home furnishings sector as some leading companies have returned to positive growth in their mid-year reports [2][6] - The light industry manufacturing sector is projected to see improved profitability as domestic demand stabilizes and external demand recovers due to tariff easing, with a focus on companies with strong alpha characteristics in exports [2][6] - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including paper manufacturing, home furnishings, packaging, and oral care, based on their potential for recovery and growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The report notes that the home furnishings sector is experiencing a recovery with many companies' valuations at historical lows, suggesting a favorable investment environment as the fourth quarter approaches [6] - Companies to watch include leading soft furniture brands and custom home furnishing companies, which are expected to benefit from policy changes and internal reforms [6] Paper Manufacturing - The report provides detailed pricing data for various paper products, indicating a mixed trend with some prices increasing, such as corrugated paper, while others like double glue paper have decreased [6][45] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the paper sector, particularly for companies with integrated supply chains and strong domestic sales expectations [6][45] Light Industry Consumption - The report highlights strategic partnerships and product launches in the oral care sector, particularly for companies like Dengkang Oral Care, which is expected to benefit from new product introductions [8] - It also notes the growth in the AI/AR consumer market, suggesting investment opportunities in companies involved in this technology [8] Export Chain - The report mentions Vietnam's strong export performance despite tariff challenges, indicating a favorable outlook for companies with robust overseas supply chains [8] - It recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on international market opportunities [8] Packaging - The report discusses the investment in environmentally friendly materials and the strategic moves by companies like Baixinglong to enhance their market position in the eco-friendly packaging sector [11] - It suggests monitoring companies that are adapting to the green trend in packaging [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in the European electronic vaporization market, and the HNB (Heat-not-Burn) segment is expected to release profit elasticity [8] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding initial high single-digit expectations [8] - The HNB market is in a rapid growth phase, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on new products, indicating potential for future profit contributions [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 11.177 billion yuan - 2024A: 11.799 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.722 billion yuan - 2026E: 16.166 billion yuan - 2027E: 18.395 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (8.06)%, 5.56%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 1.645 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.303 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.329 billion yuan - 2026E: 2.217 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.891 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (34.47)%, (20.78)%, 1.96%, 66.84%, and 30.40% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 0.27 yuan - 2024A: 0.21 yuan - 2025E: 0.21 yuan - 2026E: 0.36 yuan - 2027E: 0.47 yuan [1] - The P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratios at current price and latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 80.56 - 2024A: 101.69 - 2025E: 99.73 - 2026E: 59.78 - 2027E: 45.84 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerating growth of upgraded consumption, particularly in high-end sectors, with a focus on the rising demand for tobacco and alcohol products, especially electronic cigarettes [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The electronic cigarette sector has shown a continuous upward trend since mid-April, with leading company Smoore International's stock price increasing by 100% since the beginning of the year [1] - British American Tobacco (BAT) reported a 2.4% year-on-year increase in revenue from new tobacco products, reaching £1.651 billion, with adjusted gross profit rising by 6.8% to £1.006 billion [2] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment of BAT generated £440 million in revenue, reflecting a 0.8% year-on-year growth, with sales volume increasing by 1.6% to 10.1 billion units [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Smoore International's revenue for the first half of the year was 6.013 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, while pre-tax profit is expected to decrease by 5%-23% [3] - The company has established a strategic partnership with BAT, becoming a core supplier for the Glo Hilo product line, which has enhanced its market position [4] - Smoore has invested significantly in R&D, with a 6% year-on-year increase in R&D spending, and a notable 41.3% increase in investment for medical and beauty aerosol products [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global HNB market is expected to continue growing, with significant potential in the U.S. market as regulations tighten on non-compliant products [7] - Smoore's strategic focus on HNB technology and its partnerships with major clients like BAT position it well for future growth, despite short-term profit pressures [5][7] - The anticipated global rollout of innovative products like Glo Hilo is expected to further solidify Smoore's leading position in the new tobacco industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) experienced a significant stock decline, dropping over 9% at one point, and currently trading down 5.94% at HKD 19.94, with a trading volume of HKD 1.095 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Core client British American Tobacco reported a 12.9% year-on-year decline in global sales of its vaping products (Vuse), with a 13.0% decrease in revenue when adjusted for constant currency [1] - The launch of the new HNB product, glo Hilo, in Japan's Miyagi Prefecture, was priced at JPY 3,980, with nationwide sales set to begin on September 1 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance among e-commerce platforms for personal care products in May, with sanitary napkins on Tmall declining by 18% year-on-year, while Douyin saw a growth of 32% [6] - The report emphasizes the potential recovery in the home furnishing sector due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in first-tier cities [6] - The report notes the introduction of new products by companies like Blokus and the launch of the glo Hilo heated tobacco device by British American Tobacco in Japan, indicating innovation and market expansion [6][10] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales and 175 million subsidies issued by May 31, 2025 [6] - The report suggests that the home furnishing industry is expected to gradually recover as most companies are currently valued at historical lows, recommending leading companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home [6] Paper and Packaging - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 yuan/ton (unchanged) and corrugated paper at 2543.13 yuan/ton (down 38.12 yuan/ton) [6] - The report recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics [6] Light Industry Consumption - The report indicates that personal care e-commerce sales are diverging, with sanitary napkins on Tmall down 18% year-on-year, while Douyin saw a 32% increase [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands during the 618 shopping festival, suggesting a favorable outlook for local brands [6] Export Chain - In May, the export value of key light industrial products decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, with ongoing negotiations between China and the US potentially leading to reduced tariffs [6] - The report notes an increase in shipping costs, with the CCFI and SCFI indices rising by 11.2% and 8.1% respectively [6] New Tobacco Products - The glo Hilo device was launched in Japan at a price of approximately $23.44, with a significant improvement in product features compared to previous models [6][10] - The report suggests that the introduction of new heated tobacco products may drive user transition to these innovations [10] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector showed resilience, with the industry index outperforming the market, indicating a positive trend for brands like HLA and Anta [26][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the tobacco industry [1] Core Insights - The global tobacco market is projected to reach $951.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%. The market segments include combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion, new tobacco products at $870 billion, and others [11][19] - New tobacco products, particularly heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes, are experiencing significant growth, with heated tobacco expected to grow by 13.1% year-on-year [11][19] - Major players like Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco are increasing their focus on smoke-free products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics towards reduced harm alternatives [1][66] Summary by Sections Global Tobacco Market - The global tobacco market is expected to grow to $951.4 billion in 2024, with combustible tobacco at $775.6 billion and new tobacco products at $870 billion, reflecting growth rates of 1.6%, 1.9%, and 13.1% respectively [11][19] - The market is dominated by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, and North America, with China, the USA, and Indonesia being the top three consumers [14][19] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's revenue is projected to be $378.78 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year organic growth of 9.8%. The revenue split is 61% from combustible products and 38% from smoke-free products [46][49] - The IQOS brand continues to grow, with user numbers reaching 32.2 million in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [55][59] - The company is actively expanding its smoke-free product offerings, aiming for smoke-free products to account for over two-thirds of its revenue by 2030 [65] British American Tobacco - British American Tobacco's revenue is expected to be £25.867 billion in 2024, with a slight organic growth of 1.3%. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in combustible tobacco but growth in new tobacco products [66][69] - The company is diversifying its product range, focusing on electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco, with new product launches expected to drive future growth [66][69] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is linked to British American Tobacco's new HNB product, and the OEM for Philip Morris International's IQOS, Yingqu Technology [1]