继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。我们认为，AI 需求持续强劲，英伟达 AI 服务器四季度出货量提速，ASIC 迎来爆发式增长，产业链积极拉货，整体来看，继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力 硬件、苹果链及自主可控受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 电子周观点： 英伟达指引超预期，AI 需求持续旺盛。11 月 20 日，英伟达披露 FY26Q3（25.8~25.10）业绩，FY26Q3 公司营 收 570 亿美元，同比+62%，环比+22%，其中数据中心收入 512 亿美元，同比+66%，环比+25%。FY26Q3 公 司 GAAP 毛利率为 73.4%，净利润为 319 亿美元，同比+65%；Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，净利润为 318 亿 美元，同比+59%，环比+23%。公司预计 FY26Q4 收入为 650 亿美元（±2%），GAAP 与 Non GAAP 毛利率分 别为 74.8±0.5 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据 Counterpoint Research 的中国 Market Pulse 智能手机月度销售追踪报告的初步数据显示，10 月份智能手机销量在苹果 (AAPL.US)37% 的同比增长的推动下增长了 8%。"iPhone 17 系列继续为苹果带来佳绩，其中基础款和 Pro 机型的增长最快，"高级分析师 Ivan Lam 表示，"新款 iPhone 的销量占比极高，超过 80%，因此随着平均售价的上涨，我们预计整体销量将进一步提升。" 数据来源：Counterpoint Research Market Pulse 智能手机月度销售追踪报告 数据来源：Counterpoint Research Market Pulse 智能手机月度销售追踪报告 这是苹果有史以来在 Q4 的最佳开局表现，其总销量已经远远超过了 2021 年 10 月创下的历史纪录。该月，中国市场中每售出四部智能手机就有一 部是 iPhone ——这一标志性的成绩此前仅在 2022 年出现过一次，当时苹果在高端市场的竞争对手相对较少。 2025-2026 年全球 eSIM 市场出货量份额 OPPO 凭借其拥有出色的摄像头和 ...

以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Counterpoint Counterpoint 咨询 . Counterpoint Research 是一家专注于科技行业的全球性研究公司，在全球主要的市场有着强大的影响 力。我们致力于为合作伙伴提供准确、及时的市场数据，帮助他们做出明智的决策。 在苹果以及中国主要 OEM 厂商的推动下，10 月中国智能手机销量同比增长 8%。 根据 Counterpoint Research 的中国 Market Pulse 智能手机月度销售追踪报告 的初步数据显示，10 月份智能手机销量在苹果 37% 的同比增长的推动下增长了 8%。"iPhone 17 系列继续为苹果带来佳 绩，其中基础款和 Pro 机型的增长最快，" 高级分析师 Ivan Lam 表示，"新款 iPhone 的销量占比极 高，超过 80%，因此随着平均售价的上涨，我们预计整体销量将进一步提升。" 数据来源：Counterpoint Research Market Pulse 智能手机月度销售追踪报告 这是苹果 有史以来 在 Q4 的最佳开局表现，其总销量已经远远超过了 2021 年 10 月创下 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to find short-term support around the 100-day moving average at approximately 25,600 points due to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [2] - The recent meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has led to a temporary easing of tensions, but core issues remain unresolved [2] Company News - Xiaomi Group (1810) reported an adjusted profit increase of 81% in the last quarter, exceeding expectations, and its electric vehicle business recorded operational profitability [5] - Baidu Group (9888) disclosed a 36% decline in adjusted profit but reported a 50% growth in AI business revenue [5] - Pinduoduo's adjusted net profit rose by 14% in the third quarter, although management warned of ongoing financial volatility [5] - China Hongqiao (1378) saw its controlling shareholder increase their stake to 64.02% by purchasing shares worth approximately 230 million [5] - GBM Resources, an Australian mining company, plans a secondary listing in Hong Kong [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has decreased to 3.8%, lower than expected, with significant declines in various economic sectors [10] - Macau's GDP grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable increase in inbound tourists [10] - The Chinese government aims to establish around 200 high-standard digital parks by 2027, enhancing digital transformation across industries [9] - A report indicates that China is increasingly lending to high-income countries, with the US being the largest recipient of Chinese loans [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controllable beneficiary industries [4][27]. Core Insights - SMIC reported a Q3 revenue of $2.382 billion, a 7.8% increase from Q2 and a 9.7% increase year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 115.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - TSMC is expanding its AI capacity aggressively, with a planned price increase for advanced processes starting in 2026, reflecting a long-term pricing strategy [1]. - The demand for AI continues to be strong, with expectations of explosive growth in ASIC numbers from major tech companies by 2026-2027 [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer Electronics - Apple launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AR glasses, with strong pre-order demand [5]. - The AI edge computing market is expected to see significant new product launches from 2025 to 2026, benefiting from Apple's integrated hardware and software advantages [5]. 1.2 PCB - Despite a slight decline in shipments due to the October holiday, the overall industry remains in a high-growth phase, driven by automotive and industrial applications [7]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for AI-related PCBs, with many companies expanding production [4][7]. 1.3 Components - The AI data center's demand is expected to enhance the valuation of passive components, with increased usage of MLCCs in mobile devices [18]. - LCD panel prices have stabilized, and production control measures are in place to maintain price levels [18]. 1.4 IC Design - The report is optimistic about the memory sector, predicting a price increase for DRAM due to rising demand from cloud service providers [20][23]. - The overall memory market is entering a clear upward trend, supported by both supply and demand factors [23]. 1.5 Semiconductor Foundry, Equipment, Materials, and Components - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a trend of de-globalization, with increased focus on domestic supply chains [24]. - The demand for advanced packaging is strong, driven by the need for AI computing capabilities [24][25]. Key Companies - SMIC's Q3 utilization rate reached 95.8%, with a positive outlook for Q4 [27]. - TSMC is expanding its 3nm process capacity and implementing a price increase strategy starting in 2026 [27]. - Companies like BeiGene, Longi Green Energy, and others are highlighted as beneficiaries of the AI and semiconductor trends [27].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the iPhone 17 series has achieved over 8.25 million activations in China as of November 2, and is expected to surpass 10 million activations by November 16 [1][2] - Apple's CEO Tim Cook expressed confidence in the growth prospects in the Greater China region, attributing it to the strong momentum of the iPhone 17 series [1] - The breakdown of activations for different iPhone 17 models is as follows: iPhone 17 Pro Max approximately 3.957 million, iPhone 17 Pro approximately 2.462 million, iPhone 17 approximately 1.728 million, and iPhone Air approximately 107,000 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controllable beneficiary industries [4][30]. Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated strong business momentum, with the Blackwell demand being robust and the production of the next-generation Rubin chips underway [1]. - SanDisk reported a revenue of $2.31 billion for FY26Q1, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23% and year-over-year growth of 21%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The demand for ASICs is expected to surge due to the explosive growth in token numbers, with significant contributions from companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [1][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with significant demand for AI-related products and services driving growth across various segments [1][4]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in the data center market, with expectations of NAND flash memory becoming the largest market by 2026, driven by AI demand [1]. 2. Subsector Insights 2.1 Consumer Electronics - Apple launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AR glasses, which are expected to drive demand in the AI sector [5][6]. - The report anticipates a surge in end-side AI product releases, particularly in 2025 and 2026, enhancing Apple's competitive position in the AI market [5]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, driven by demand from automotive and industrial control sectors, alongside AI expansion [7]. - The report notes a significant increase in orders for AI-PCB and related products, with many companies operating at full capacity [30]. 2.3 Components - The report emphasizes the growth in passive components, particularly MLCCs, driven by increased usage in AI devices and mobile applications [22]. - The LCD panel market is stabilizing, with effective production control measures in place [23]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage sector is expected to see continued upward momentum, with DRAM prices projected to rise due to increased demand from cloud service providers [24][26]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant investments in advanced manufacturing technologies [27][29]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic production capabilities in the face of global supply chain challenges [27]. 3. Key Companies - Nvidia is highlighted for its strong performance and technological advancements, particularly in AI server shipments [30]. - Companies like SanDisk, Three Ring Group, and Northern Huachuang are noted for their robust financial performance and strategic positioning in the market [32][34][35].

Core Insights - The Chinese smartphone market experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.7% in Q3 2025 due to economic slowdown and reduced demand [5][4] - OPPO achieved the highest year-on-year growth rate among major OEMs, driven by strong demand for its sub-brand OnePlus [6][5] Market Performance - The overall smartphone sales in China decreased by 2.7% in Q3 2025, influenced by ongoing economic factors such as the summer vacation and back-to-school season [5][4] - Vivo's market share fell to 18.5% amid intensified competition, yet it maintained a leading position with a diverse product line [5][6] - Huawei's high-end Mate 70 and Pura 80 series saw lower sales compared to previous models, while the Nova 14 series continued to perform well [5][6] Brand Analysis - OPPO's growth of 2.1% was attributed to stable sales of the Reno 14 series and strong performance from OnePlus, particularly the Ace 5 and 13 series [6][5] - Xiaomi recorded a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, supported by the Redmi Note 15 and K80 series, with the recently launched Xiaomi 17 series receiving positive market feedback [6][9] - Honor's X70 series stood out in the entry-level market, but the brand's overall sales declined by 8.1% [6][5] Apple Performance - The iPhone 17 series outperformed the iPhone 16 series in initial sales, with the base model being particularly popular due to its competitive pricing [7][11] - Apple's pricing strategy has increased pressure on high-end Android brands, with expectations of intensified competition in Q4 [7][11] - The iPhone 17's sales in September were nearly double that of the iPhone 16 during the same period last year, indicating strong market demand [11][9]

Core Insights - The global smartphone market revenue grew by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $112 billion, marking the highest level for Q3 in history [4][5] - The global smartphone shipment volume also saw a moderate 4% year-on-year increase, totaling 320 million units [5] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached a record high for Q3 at $351, driven by an expanding mature user base upgrading to more expensive devices [5][8] Company Performance - Apple led the market with a 43% revenue share and a 6% year-on-year growth, achieving its best-ever Q3 revenue [8][11] - Samsung experienced a 9% year-on-year revenue growth, supported by strong sales of the Galaxy S series and foldable devices, with its ASP increasing by 2.9% to $304 [5][11] - Vivo was the fastest-growing brand among the top five, with a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong shipments in India and Southeast Asia [5][11] - OPPO achieved the highest ASP increase among the top five brands, growing by 3.4% to $254, thanks to strong performance in higher price segments [5][11] - Xiaomi held a 14% market share with a 2% year-on-year growth, benefiting from mid-to-high-end smartphone demand in emerging markets [11] Market Trends - The ongoing trend of premiumization in the smartphone market is expected to continue, with increasing adoption of foldable smartphones further driving ASP and revenue growth [8] - The introduction of trade-in offers, financing options, and bundled sales has lowered the upgrade barrier, particularly in emerging markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Apple has reiterated its policy prohibiting authorized offline dealers in China from collaborating with any e-commerce platforms, aiming to maintain its pricing structure amidst declining revenue in the Greater China region [1] Group 1: Company Policy - Apple has issued a notification to all authorized dealers in China, forbidding them from engaging in product display, promotion, or sales on e-commerce, social media, and live streaming platforms [1] - This policy is a reinforcement of existing regulations, with the primary goal of preventing disruption to the pricing system [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, Apple's revenue in the Greater China region was reported at $14.493 billion, a decline of 3.6% compared to $15.033 billion in the same period last year [1] - The Greater China market is the only region globally where Apple experienced a revenue decrease [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, expressed optimism about the company's growth prospects in China, anticipating a recovery in revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by strong momentum from the iPhone 17 series [1] - Cook described the Chinese market as "vibrant and dynamic," indicating confidence in future growth [1]