10 March 2026 | 6:51PM HKT Equity Research CHINA IP RETAILER AND TOY TRACKER Feb update: Pop Mart sees less supply/slower growth than Jan; multiple new plush series launches, eyes on performance sustainability In this note, we provide updates on China IP retailers and toy companies, including new products/IP, sales momentum, and overseas market updates. Pop Mart's online sales growth in China was sequentially slower in Feb, which in our view was due to less supply and a relatively high base when NeZha becam ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 10 March 2026 CATL - H Overweight Asia Autos & EV Battery Rebecca Wen AC (852) 2800-8505 rebecca.y.wen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited A pleasant beat; result call reaffirms OW conviction Price (09 Mar 26): HK$503.00 CATL-H is flattish YTD (-0.5% vs. HSI -0.9%), pausing 4Q25's momentum on concerns over higher materials and lithium costs. We believe the company's solid 4Q25 print (~20% above JPMe) and management' ...

10 March 2026 | 8:04PM CST Equity Research NIO Inc. (NIO): 4Q25 First Take: Operating profit beat on cost saving, with higher loss from equity investees; Neutral Nio reported 4Q25 result with total revenue in line with GSe, EBIT beat on better SG&A cost savings, but Non-GAAP net income missed mainly from expanding losses from equity investees. 1Q26 volume and revenue guidance was largely in line with expectations, with vehicle sales volume of 80k-83k units (+7%/-8% vs. GSe /Consensus at the midpoint) and re ...

时代天使 20260310 摘要 海外业务成增长主引擎：2025H1 海外案例数占比达 52%首次超国内， 营收同比增 33%，预计 2025 年净利润大幅回升至 0.24 亿-0.3 亿美元。 国内基本盘稳固：公司国内市占率超 40%位居第一，2023-2025H1 国 内经调整利润率稳定在 19%以上，下沉市场渗透率从 22%提升至 29%。 全球份额快速扩张：全球案例数份额从 2022 年 4.5%提升至 2025H1 的 10.1%，与龙头隐适美案例数差距由 13 倍缩小至 5.7 倍。 盈利拐点显现：随海外规模效应释放，2025H1 销售费用率进入下降通 道，海外亏损大幅收窄至 540 万美元，临近整体扭亏平衡点。 竞争格局向头部集中：国内尾部厂家加速出清，公司通过战略投资舒雅 齐承接下沉需求；全球目标指向 20%份额，预计 2033 年收入达 16 亿 美元。 全球产能与供应链优势：无锡基地年产 1 亿只，并布局巴西、美国生产 中心，8.5 个工作日的交付周期构建核心竞争壁垒。 Q&A 请介绍一下时代天使的发展历程、股权结构以及近年来的整体经营业绩表现？ 时代天使成立于 2003 年，2015 年 ...

创新实业 20260310 摘要 产能扩张：2025 年中期拥有 79 万吨电解铝及 120 万吨氧化铝产能， 在建 200 万吨氧化铝项目，建成后氧化铝总产能将达 320 万吨。 国内降本：受益于几内亚铝土矿增产带动 CIF 均价同比下降 43%，叠加 1,750MW 风光装机替代火电，预计年节约电费 10 亿元，单吨超额利润 达 3,800 元。 海外增量：沙特 50 万吨电解铝项目预计 2027 年放量，利用当地 0.2 元 /度低价能源，单吨盈利能力约 1 万元，有望贡献 250 亿估值增量。 供需格局：全球电解铝库存低位，供给受电力及指标限制增速仅 1.5%- 2%，电力行业需求年均增长 4%，驱动铝价进入金融与能源属性双重上 升通道。 预期差：市场低估了海外（如莫桑比克、卡塔尔）因能源价格上涨导致 的减产速度，以及印度、印尼新建产能因电力配套不足导致的持续延期。 盈利估值：若 2026 年铝价维持 2.5 万元/吨，归母净利润可达 60 亿级； 随沙特项目投产，远期合理估值有望突破 800 亿元，具备三年一倍潜力。 Q&A 请介绍一下创新实业的基本情况、业务布局以及产能规模？ 创新实业是一家聚焦于 ...

乐舒适在黑非洲纸尿裤销量市占率超 35%，全非纸尿裤（20.3%）与卫 生巾（15.6%）市占率均位居第一，显著领先宝洁等国际品牌。 核心优势源于 100%本地化制造带来的 20%-30%性价比优势，以及渗 透至乡村夫妻店的深层渠道网络，品牌认知度接近 90%。 非洲卫生用品市场规模约 40 亿美元，未来 5 年 CAGR 预计 7%；纸尿 裤渗透率仅 20%，受益于年均 1.8%的新生儿增速及低人均消费量。 未来 3 年收入 CAGR 预期 15%-20%；拉美市场为战略重点，秘鲁产能 2025 年底投产，目标 2028 年拉美收入占比升至 15%。 母公司森大集团体外拥有数十亿规模的洗衣粉、牙膏等快消业务，与现 有渠道高度协同，存在资产注入预期以支撑中长期增长。 通过产品提价成功对冲汇率波动，如 2024 年加纳本币贬值近 50%背景 下，仍维持美元口径单价稳定及销量增长。 当前股价对应 2026 年 PE 约 15-16 倍，低于 20-25 倍的合理估值区间； 进入沪港通有望提升流动性溢价。 Q&A 乐舒适 20260310 摘要 公司未来三年的收入复合增速预计将达到 15%至 20%。增长主要由现有 ...

Summary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) 4Q Results Company Overview - **Company**: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) - **Industry**: Energy & Chemicals, specifically focusing on electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage systems (ESS) Key Financial Highlights - **4Q Results**: CATL's 4Q results significantly exceeded expectations, driven by increased EV battery shipments and improved margins due to higher capacity utilization [2][8] - **Full-Year Performance**: Full-year revenue, gross profit, and net income surpassed consensus estimates, indicating strong end-demand and market share gains [2][8] - **Revenue Figures**: - 4Q Revenue: Rmb 140.63 billion, beating estimates by 10% [3][8] - FY25 Revenue: Rmb 362.01 billion, with a projected increase to Rmb 410.63 billion in FY26 [5] - **Net Profit**: - 4Q Net Profit: Rmb 23.17 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year [3][8] - FY25 Net Profit: Rmb 50.75 billion, a 42% increase year-over-year [3][8] Operational Insights - **Battery Sales**: - EV battery sales reached 541 GWh in FY25, exceeding estimates by 7.5% due to a robust e-truck market [8] - ESS battery sales were consistent with expectations [8] - **Pricing and Margins**: - Battery average selling price (ASP) decreased by 12% year-over-year, while unit gross profit margin also saw a decline [3][8] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining pricing discipline and cost pass-through strategies [2][8] Future Guidance - **2026 Outlook**: Initial guidance for 2026 suggests sustained shipment growth and earnings momentum, with a 3-year earnings CAGR of 20% from an elevated 2025 base [2][8] - **Market Position**: CATL is expected to continue outperforming the sector, supported by strong demand for EVs and ESS [2][8] Valuation and Market Position - **Stock Rating**: Overweight with a price target of Rmb 490.00, indicating a 37% upside from the current price of Rmb 357.50 [5] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb 1.63 trillion [5] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected EV penetration, lower geopolitical risks, and better-than-expected margins could enhance performance [10][14] - **Downside Risks**: Potential threats from competitors, geopolitical risks affecting the supply chain, and slower EV adoption could pose challenges [10][14] Conclusion - CATL's strong financial performance in 4Q and optimistic future guidance reflect its robust position in the EV battery market, despite challenges related to pricing and competition. The company's strategic focus on maintaining margins and expanding its market share positions it well for continued growth in the coming years [2][8][10]

March 9, 2026 10:23 PM GMT Microsoft | North America The Next Step in Enterprise Agentic AI… Frontier Suite Frontier suite highlights Microsoft's strategy to orchestrate, secure and govern across an array of AI agents, copilots and enterprise data layers. Leveraging incumbency advantages and enterprise AI platform leadership, this strategy should enable long-term monetization opportunities for M365. OW. Key Takeaways What Was Announced? Microsoft 365 E7 = The Frontier Suite. Microsoft announced its first 'F ...

Flash | Impairment loss — In 2025, the impairment loss was Rmb9.1bn, among which Rmb3.6bn and Rmb5.2bn are long term asset and inventory impairment loss, respectively. The impairment loss in 4Q25 was Rmb4.6bn, +164% YoY and +188% QoQ. Earnings Summary | Year to | Net Profit | Diluted EPS | EPS growth | P/E | P/B | ROE | Yield | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 31 Dec | (RmbM) | (Rmb) | (%) | (x) | (x) | (%) | (%) | | 2024A | 50,745 | 11.530 | 14.9 | 31.0 | 6.4 | 22.8 | 1.6 | | 2025A | 72, ...

10 March 2026 | 7:04AM CST Equity Research XPENG INC. (XPEV/9868.HK) VLA 2.0 test drive experience - smooth 1h+ ride without intervention; Buy We attended XPeng's VLA 2.0 Investor Experience Day on Mar 9 in Guangzhou, including a meeting with the company's Head of General Intelligence Center and a test-ride in its new P7 model with the latest VLA 2.0 NGP version. Overall, we noted a smooth ride lasting over an hour without any human driver intervention, covering busy road traffic and complex scenarios inclu ...