Core Viewpoint - The overall supply of new peanuts in the 2025 production season is expected to be loose, with significant price differences due to varying quality across regions. The demand from downstream sectors is primarily driven by oil peanuts, while the overall peanut prices may experience a slight increase in the first quarter before continuing a weak trend [1][9]. Price Disparity - The price fluctuations of peanuts in 2025 have widened, with new peanuts starting to be listed in August. The prices initially rose but then fell due to delayed harvests in Henan, leading to lower prices in that region. For instance, the purchase price of white sand peanuts in the Zhu Ma Dian area dropped below 7000 yuan/ton [2][4]. - As of December 31, 2025, the average price of white sand peanuts in Zhu Ma Dian was 8238 yuan/ton, down 7.04% year-on-year, while in the Fuxin area, it was 8525 yuan/ton, down 6.96% [2]. Supply Dynamics - The overall supply of new peanuts is slightly loose, with varying inventory depletion rates across regions. By the end of December, the inventory ratio in Henan was approximately 61.48%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points year-on-year, while in Liaoning, it was about 48.00%, a decrease of 17.10 percentage points [6]. - The trading of commodity peanuts is slow, with some inventory pressure noted. However, the demand for oil peanuts is increasing as large oil factories begin to purchase raw materials [8]. Market Trends - In December, large oil factories started to purchase raw materials, leading to an increase in oil consumption. However, the overall supply of oil peanuts is sufficient, which may limit the need for price increases [8]. - The wholesale market has seen a slight recovery in sales, with a significant increase in the outflow of goods compared to last year. However, the market remains influenced by the consumption environment, and the purchasing time may be shorter than in previous years [8][9]. Price Forecast - It is anticipated that peanut prices may experience a slight increase in the first quarter of 2026 before continuing a weak trend. The expected price range for high-quality white sand peanuts in Zhu Ma Dian is between 6700-7400 yuan/ton, while in Liaoning, it is projected to be between 8800-9400 yuan/ton [9].

Core Insights - Changchun City aims for a GDP growth of over 5% by 2025, with the economic total expected to exceed 800 billion yuan, having crossed two trillion-level thresholds in the past five years [1] - The report highlights a doubling of high-tech enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the service sector becoming the main driver of economic growth, and a trend of net inflow in the resident population [1] Economic Goals - For 2026, the main expected economic and social development targets include: GDP growth of around 5%, industrial added value growth of about 7%, fixed asset investment growth of over 3%, retail sales growth of over 5%, public budget revenue growth of 3%, CPI increase controlled at around 2%, and urban and rural residents' income growth exceeding economic growth [1] - The draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan outlines goals such as service sector value added accounting for over 60% of GDP, an annual urbanization rate increase of 1 percentage point, GDP growth surpassing the national average, and achieving a total economic volume of over 1 trillion yuan [1]

新华财经北京1月14日电越来越多的期权交易员正在排除对2026年美联储降息的预期，转而押注其将全 年维持利率不变。这一趋势至少可追溯至上周五，当时美国就业数据显示失业率意外下降。 根据市场价格测算，这几乎消除了本月美联储降息的可能性，并促使越来越多的交易员推迟对未来数月 降息时点的预期。 TJM Institutional Services利率策略师戴维·罗宾指出："从数据角度看，美联储至少到3月都将维持利率不 变的概率已上升，且随着每次会议时点过去，利率保持稳定的可能性越来越大。" （文章来源：新华财经） 与美联储短期基准利率紧密挂钩的担保隔夜融资利率近期期权流向传递出更加鹰派的信号。新建期权头 寸主要集中在3月和6月合约，以对冲美联储下次降息行动持续推迟的情境。其他针对更远期合约的头 寸，则有望美联储全年维持利率不变的立场中获利。 罗宾表示，无论市场是否相信美联储将按兵不动，这些交易的成本都很低，作为严谨的风险管理者，你 会希望持有这类头寸。 ...

2025年，面对复杂的外部环境和艰巨的保供任务，国能准能集团始终将保障能源安全稳定供应作为首要 政治责任和核心使命，统筹发展和安全，聚焦主责主业、绿色转型、资源获取"三篇文章"，通过一系列 科学精准、高效协同的举措，推动煤炭生产实现稳产、优产、高产。公司全年累计生产商品煤6275万 吨，创历史新高，再次以实绩书写了央企能源保供的责任和担当。 科学调度：下好保供"一盘棋" 二是强化煤质管控，优化产品结构。准能集团聚焦效益提升核心目标，深化煤质管控与产品结构优化， 建立"采—洗—运"全链条协同机制，保障商品煤热值均衡稳定，全年商品煤热值达4762kcal/kg，同比提 升37kcal/kg。同时，紧扣市场需求导向，持续做精煤炭产品体系，加大质优价高的块煤生产力度，全年 完成块煤产量105.2万吨，连续三年突破100万吨，实现增收创效。 三是加快资源获取，积蓄发展后劲。准能集团以前瞻性眼光和多元化策略，积极拓展资源储备。一方 面，跟踪政策与市场动态，紧盯资源获取重点区域、推进矿区资源深勘精勘、加快矿区周边空白资源整 合、参与外部资源项目调研与投资，并完成相关论证工作；另一方面，推动1342公顷采场接续用地项目 通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The average price change rate of a basket of crude oil was reported at 0.57% on January 13, according to the National Oil Price System [1] Group 1 - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted based on international crude oil price changes every 10 working days, with the adjustment effective at 24:00 on the announcement date [3] - If the adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan per ton, it will not be implemented but will be accumulated or offset in the next adjustment [3] - The adjustment window for the current pricing cycle will open at 24:00 on January 20, marking the sixth working day of the cycle on January 14 [3]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among private fund managers regarding the A-share market in January is cautiously optimistic, with most planning to maintain their current positions. High-dividend assets, technology sectors, and leading manufacturing companies are identified as core investment directions [1][2] - The confidence index for A-share managers recorded 124.94 in January 2026, a slight increase of 0.48% from December 2025, indicating a rise in confidence compared to the previous month. The trend expectation confidence index reached 133.59, up 0.6% month-on-month, reflecting a market dominated by optimistic and neutral attitudes [1] - A breakdown of fund manager sentiment shows that 5.4% are extremely optimistic (down 0.5 percentage points), 58.7% are optimistic (up 2.6 percentage points), and 34% are neutral (down 1.6 percentage points). The proportion of pessimistic managers decreased to 1.5% (down 0.8 percentage points), while 0.4% are extremely pessimistic (up 0.4 percentage points) [1] Group 2 - Several private funds have disclosed their latest holdings and investment logic, focusing on four main areas: internet platforms with competitive advantages, consumer sectors with supply constraints, leading manufacturing companies, and hidden champions in cyclical industries. Some cyclical sectors are expected to provide stable profits and high dividends, offering returns above risk-free rates [2] - The current investment strategy includes maintaining high positions in three main lines: cyclical industry leaders with dividend characteristics, technology giants benefiting from rapid AI development, and state-owned enterprises with high barriers to entry and attractive dividend rates [2] - Recent pullbacks in dividend stocks are viewed as attractive buying opportunities, with historical data indicating that the first quarter typically sees the highest win rates and strongest gains for dividend stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) member states voted to approve the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement, paving the way for its formal signing, despite strong domestic opposition in Italy [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The agreement is expected to be the largest trade deal in EU history, significantly reducing tariffs on a wide range of products between the EU and Mercosur countries [2]. - Italy's support for the agreement reflects a pragmatic balance between domestic pressures and external changes, as the EU accelerates the agreement's implementation [2]. - The agreement will lower import tariffs on EU products such as cars, machinery, and pharmaceuticals from Mercosur countries, while the EU will reduce trade barriers on meat and grains from Mercosur [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications for Italy - The trade agreement presents a "double-edged sword" for Italy, potentially expanding export opportunities and enhancing industrial competitiveness, but also posing challenges to the agricultural sector [2]. - Italy's economy is heavily reliant on exports, and the Mercosur market is seen as a vital avenue for risk diversification amid global trade uncertainties [2]. - The Italian Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers Association indicates that the agreement will benefit Italian companies by reducing export costs, simplifying customs procedures, and enhancing cooperation in agricultural technology and food supply chains [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Sector Concerns - Despite potential benefits, significant risks remain for the agricultural sector, particularly due to competitive pressures from Mercosur countries in beef, poultry, and sugar markets [5]. - Italian farmers have expressed concerns that the agreement could undermine local agriculture, especially for products not covered by geographical indications [5]. - The Italian Small Farmers Association emphasizes the need for strict compliance with EU environmental and food safety standards for imported products to protect local farmers [5]. Group 4: Upcoming Signing and Future Challenges - The EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement is scheduled to be signed on January 17 in Asunción, Paraguay, after delays due to internal disagreements among EU member states [6]. - The Italian government faces the critical challenge of balancing export competitiveness with agricultural stability in the wake of the agreement [7].

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections on January 23, raising concerns about the potential expansion of economic stimulus and debt levels, which may worsen Japan's fiscal burden [1][2] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged to 2.18%, the highest in 27 years, while the 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.52%, reflecting market anxiety over fiscal sustainability [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced significant volatility, opening with a rise of over 3.6% and closing with a gain of 3.1%, while the Japanese yen depreciated to its lowest level since July 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Since taking office, Kishida has faced challenges including a weak yen, inflation above targets, and economic sluggishness, prompting the government to introduce a record economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen [2] - The Bank of Japan has shifted from a long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy to a forward-looking adjustment, with interest rates expected to rise to 0.75% by December 2025, the highest level in 30 years [2] - Concerns about Japan's fiscal situation have intensified, with the country's debt exceeding twice its economic output, leading to increased bond issuance and a higher debt servicing burden due to rising interest rates [2] Group 3 - Kishida emphasized the importance of promoting economic growth over concerns about rising long-term interest rates, stating that the new budget includes significant investments aimed at fostering future growth [3] - The government projects a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.4% and a real wage growth rate of 1.3%, indicating a positive outlook for the economy [3]

Group 1 - The February 2026 gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by $14.4, closing at $4,594.4 per ounce, a decrease of 0.31% [1] - The geopolitical uncertainty has heightened market risk aversion, leading to gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, with February gold touching $4,644.00 and March silver reaching $89.215 [1] - CME Group announced adjustments to the margin setting for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures based on a percentage of nominal margin rather than a dollar amount, effective after the market close on January 13 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $5,000 per ounce and for silver to $100 per ounce due to increased geopolitical risks and ongoing shortages in the spot market [2] - However, Citigroup anticipates that gold prices may face significant declines in the second half of 2026 as global tensions ease [2] Group 3 - The March silver futures price increased by $1.705, closing at $86.860 per ounce, reflecting a 2.00% rise [3]

新华财经北京1月14日电（崔凯）美国2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与11月持 平；剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样持平于前值，两项指标均低于市场预期。 交易员显著上调降息预期。据市场定价模型，美联储在2026年4月降息的概率已从数据发布前的38%升 至42%，6月仍是主流预期时点。B. Riley Wealth首席市场策略师阿特·霍根表示："12月通胀表现比市场 此前预期更为温和……如果这一趋势能够延续，将为美联储在第一季度降息提供一定的政策回旋空 间。" 法国农业信贷银行G10外汇研究与策略主管瓦伦丁·马林诺夫认为，市场对CPI的反应"较为平淡"，表明 2026年两次降息预期已提前反映在美元定价中。他指出，尽管财政主导担忧导致美元近期走弱，但其相 对于欧元、英镑的实际利率优势尚未完全体现，"存在被低估的情况"。 此次数据发布背景颇为复杂。2025年8月，美国总统特朗普解雇劳工部专员，并在无证据情况下指控就 业数据遭操纵。上周日，美联储主席鲍威尔公开指责政府以刑事起诉威胁施压央行降息。分析人士指 出，此类政治干预已引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。高盛资产管理联席首席投 ...