Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang
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2025年能源行业全景盘点:绿电赋能转型 城市勇破“碳锁”
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:37
2025年,作为"十四五"规划收官的关键一年,我国能源结构转型在政策引导、技术创新与市场驱动的协 同发力下,呈现"清洁替代提速、智能升级赋能、区域协同深化"的鲜明特征。从沿海城市的海上能源岛 建设到内陆地区的绿电园区崛起,从工业领域的能效革命到建筑交通的全面低碳,城市作为能源消费和 碳排放的核心载体,正通过多元路径破解"碳锁"制约,为新型能源体系建设筑牢坚实根基。 政策协同发力 筑牢绿色转型制度根基 能源转型的稳步推进,离不开顶层设计与地方实践的同频共振。今年《政府工作报告》明确提出"协同 推进降碳减污扩绿增长,加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型",将城市能源结构调整纳入核心任务。7月召 开的中央城市工作会议,进一步把"着力建设绿色低碳的美丽城市"列为七大重点任务之一,为全年城市 能源发展锚定方向。 随后,一系列配套政策密集出台:《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知》规范绿电直接交易机 制,《关于完善省内天然气管道运输价格机制的指导意见》优化能源价格形成体系,《交通运输部等十 部门关于推动交通运输与能源融合发展的指导意见》推动跨领域绿色协同,从机制保障、价格调控、跨 域融合等多个维度,构建起全方位的政策支撑体系 ...
焦炭第三轮提降落地,钢铁冬储预期升温 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:04
国金证券近日发布黑色金属周报:本周中信钢铁行业指数涨幅3.4%,跑赢上证综指1.5%。原料端,本 周铁矿价格小幅上涨,焦煤价格弱稳。据我们测算,本周国内长流程、短流程吨钢毛利分别环比-9.7 元、-7.4元,钢厂平均吨净利为-31.2元。据Mysteel统计,钢企盈利率在37.2%,钢铁行业基本面底部稳 定。 以下为研究报告摘要: 本周行情综述 行业概况:本周中信钢铁行业指数涨幅3.4%,跑赢上证综指1.5%。原料端,本周铁矿价格小幅上涨, 焦煤价格弱稳。据我们测算,本周国内长流程、短流程吨钢毛利分别环比-9.7元、-7.4元,钢厂平均吨 净利为-31.2元。据Mysteel统计,钢企盈利率在37.2%,钢铁行业基本面底部稳定。 钢铁:本周国内热轧板卷价格涨跌互现,本周国内热轧板卷价格涨跌互现,全国24个主要市场3.0mm热 轧板卷价格均价为3342元/吨,较上周下降8元/吨;4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3288元/吨,较上周下降8元/ 吨。本周京津冀价格弱势下跌,成交偏弱。基本面,据Mysteel,目前市场现货价格基本都是低价促成 交为主,现货价格也是出现了升水状态。市场投机情绪差,刚需逢低补库为主。从产业端 ...
货币宽松预期下,有色板块出现β行情 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:02
Group 1 - Precious metals have seen a rapid increase this week, driven by a better-than-expected decline in the US CPI, opening up room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and improving the probability of a soft landing [1][2] - Domestic funds have gained pricing power in the absence of overseas markets, leading to historic price movements for silver, platinum, and palladium, while gold has underperformed in this period [1][2] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals due to inflows from ETF allocations amid interest rate cut trades, with a long-term view favoring continued holding despite volatility [2] Group 2 - Copper prices are expected to rise again, with Shanghai copper increasing by 5.95% this week, surpassing the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by improved market sentiment following the US CPI decline [2] - The anticipated supply-demand tightness in copper for 2026 is supported by downward adjustments in production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside expectations of increased fiscal spending from the US government [2] Group 3 - Aluminum prices increased by 0.99% this week, following copper price trends, with low inventory levels reported at 617,000 tons, indicating a slight increase from earlier in the week [3] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, demand from automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient, suggesting a stable outlook for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Nickel prices have surged due to a shift in market expectations, with Indonesia planning to reduce nickel production quotas for 2026 by approximately 34% compared to 2025 levels [4] - The actual production in Indonesia is expected to be significantly lower than the approved quotas, which may lead to upward pressure on nickel prices in the long term [4] Group 5 - Tungsten prices have experienced fluctuations, remaining above 450,000 yuan per ton, but have recently declined due to profit-taking by suppliers and concerns over mining quotas at the beginning of the year [5] - The supply of tungsten is expected to continue declining in 2026, with limited large-scale substitution from high-speed steel products, indicating that tungsten prices may remain high [5] Group 6 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [6]
原油运价大幅回落,顺丰国际与安睿物流签署战略合作协议 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:02
①原油运价大幅回落,远洋航线运价上涨。原油运价大幅回落。12月25日,上海航运交易所发布的中国 进口原油综合指数(CTFI)报1354.35点,较12月18日下跌40.6%。本周VLCC市场进入圣诞假期,中东 航线货主持续控制出货节奏,且坚挺数周的高位运价与其他航线价差拉大,吸引大量运力集聚,而船东 期待的1月装期货量低于市场预期,挺价态度完全松动,运价高位大幅回调。西非、美湾航线也呈现量 价齐跌态势。欧线方面,本周运输需求相对稳定,即期市场订舱价格在签约季保持涨势。12月26日,上 海港出口至欧洲基本港市场运价为1690美元/TEU,较上期上涨10.2%。美线方面,本周运输需求表现良 好,推动市场运价继续上行。12月26日,上海港出口至美西和美东基本港市场运价分别为2188美 元/FEU和3033美元/FEU,分别较上期上涨9.8%、6.6%。②发改委印发《低空经济及其核心产业统计分 类(试行)》,亿航浙江中心与浙江之翼eVTOL中心启用。国家发展改革委印发《低空经济及其核心 产业统计分类(试行)》,核心目的为明确低空经济概念范畴与产业边界,适配行业阶段性发展特征, 为统计调查、产业链识别、政策制定提供核心 ...
制冷剂长协价格延续上涨趋势,萤石价格企稳,金石资源拟收购诺亚氟化工股权 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:02
Group 1 - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.76% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.88% [2] - The fluorochemical index closed at 5333.59 points, marking a 7.76% increase, and surpassed the performance of the CSI 300 Index by 5.81% and the basic chemical index by 3.18% [2] - The average price of fluorite 97 wet powder remained stable at 3,290 CNY/ton as of December 26, with a December average of 3,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.13% [3] Group 2 - The prices of refrigerants as of December 26 are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 47,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 54,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton, with various price changes noted [4] - There is a recovery in confidence among refrigerant companies and distributors regarding seasonal demand, leading to price increases for several refrigerant products [5] - The company Jinshi Resources plans to acquire a 15.7147% stake in Noah Fluorochemical for 257 million CNY, becoming the second-largest shareholder [6] Group 3 - Recommended stocks benefiting from the fluorochemical sector include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [7]
煤炭长协与市场价倒挂,底部区间或再确认 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:02
Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing a decline in capacity utilization for both thermal and coking coal, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Capacity Utilization - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port (Q5500) are reported at 677 RMB/ton, a decrease of 34 RMB/ton week-on-week [2]. - The price of thermal coal in Shanxi (Q6000) is 765 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.0 RMB/ton week-on-week [2]. - International thermal coal prices have also seen declines, with Newcastle (NEWC5500) at 74.0 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Demand and Consumption - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased by 11.30 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.53% week-on-week [4]. - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 20.90 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.56% week-on-week [4]. - Chemical coal consumption has decreased by 2.57 thousand tons/day, down 0.35% week-on-week [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current phase is viewed as the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a recommendation for low-cost allocation in the coal sector [5]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a weak operational trend due to high port inventories and above-average temperatures [5]. - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with expectations for price stabilization and potential valuation increases [6][7]. Group 5: Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [7]. - Attention should also be given to high-quality metallurgical coal companies due to their unique resource scarcity [7].
存储延续高景气度,晶圆厂涨价预期强烈 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 02:52
Market Overview - The AI sentiment concerns have eased, leading to an overall increase in electronic technology stocks, with the electronic industry index rising by 4.71% and semiconductors up by 5.07% during the week of December 22-26, 2025 [1] - The consumer electronics sector saw a rise of 3.48%, while optical and optoelectronic stocks increased by 0.94% [1] - In the overseas market, the Christmas rally contributed to a general rise in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq increasing by 1.22% and the Hang Seng Tech index up by 0.37% [1] Industry Updates - The storage market continues to see price increases, with NAND flash wafer prices rising over 10% and SSD prices increasing by 15% to 20% in December [3] - Major storage suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix have raised HBM3E prices by nearly 20% for 2026 [3] - Semiconductor manufacturers are also adjusting prices, with companies like Beijing Junzheng implementing new pricing for some storage and computing chips [3] Product Launches and Developments - Huawei launched the nova15 series, featuring the Kirin 9010S processor and advanced imaging systems [2] - Samsung introduced the Exynos 2600, the industry's first 2nm process smartphone application processor, claiming a performance improvement of up to 39% [2] - Groq and NVIDIA have signed a non-exclusive licensing agreement for inference technology, indicating ongoing collaboration in computing power [2] Investment Recommendations - The strong performance in the tech market and the acceleration of AI deployments by major companies suggest potential investment opportunities in firms like SMIC, Beijing Junzheng, and Huafeng Technology [4] - The ongoing price increases in storage and wafer production may benefit companies involved in these sectors [4]
京津冀最大碳驱碳埋存项目注碳30万吨
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 02:40
12月26日,在八里西潜山CCUS先导试验站内,工作人员正在巡回检查设备运行状况。 12月27日,中国石油华北油田"八里西潜山CCUS先导试验项目"已累计注入二氧化碳30万吨,减排效果现相当于植树约248万棵,标志着京津冀最大规模碳驱 油碳埋存项目推进"双碳"目标取得新成效。 八里西潜山CCUS先导试验区位于河北省沧州河间市,于2022年启动注气。潜山油藏作为华北油田的主力油藏,已进入特高含水开发后期,依据现有技术难 以有效动用巨量的剩余油。华北油田将CCUS作为绿色发展的发力点,一手抓油气生产一手抓科技攻关,优选八里西潜山油藏开展CCUS先导试验,攻关关 键技术瓶颈问题。先后进行二氧化碳混相重力驱油与埋存机理研究、地质建模及注采参数优化调整以及钻井、采油、地面、监测等配套工程技术攻关,新建 先导试验站1座、计量点1座、集油及二氧化碳管道20余公里,更在集团公司内部首次构建起"炼化排放—捕集提纯—油田利用"的绿色循环模式。预计全周期 将累计埋存二氧化碳847万吨,累计增油超300万吨,油藏采收率可提高27%。 八里西潜山CCUS先导试验项目被列入中国石油"四大六小"重点工程,是华北油田深入推进注气提高采收率工 ...
国内首个百万平米级油田特色多热源耦合供暖示范项目投用
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 02:39
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of clean and environmentally friendly geothermal heating in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is highlighted, with over 200,000 households benefiting from this initiative, particularly through the Renqiu West New City geothermal heating demonstration project [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Renqiu West New City geothermal heating project is the first large-scale oilfield characteristic multi-heat source coupling heating demonstration project in China, covering a total heating area of 2.69 million square meters [1] - The average indoor heating temperature is maintained above 22 degrees Celsius, contributing to a reduction of 70,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually, equivalent to the afforestation area of approximately 2,000 hectares [1] Group 2: Resource Utilization - Geothermal and waste heat are important members of renewable energy, providing a clean energy source with minimal pollution [1] - The North China Oilfield is focused on creating a "geothermal + waste heat" clean heating model, integrating production wells, heat exchange stations, and oilfield pipelines to utilize multiple geothermal resources and oilfield waste heat [1][2] Group 3: Strategic Alignment - The North China Oilfield is committed to the national "dual carbon" strategy, actively utilizing deep geothermal resources and exploring successful models for the development and utilization of oilfield waste heat resources [2] - The oilfield has developed a series of geothermal development technologies that emphasize "heat extraction without water consumption and equal-layer reinjection," enhancing energy efficiency and utilization [2]
赛力斯新增多项AI业务
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 02:19
该公司成立于2012年9月,法定代表人为岑远川,注册资本约106.37亿人民币,由赛力斯(601127)、 国开制造业转型升级基金(有限合伙)、工银金融资产投资有限公司等共同持股。 天眼查App显示,近日,赛力斯汽车有限公司发生工商变更,经营范围新增人工智能基础软件开发、人 工智能理论与算法软件开发、人工智能应用软件开发等。 ...