机构：中金公司 研究员：孙元祺/郭威秀/谭钦元/裴佳敏 热点速评 事件 二级市场短期转股抛售压力高于预期；机器人产业发展进展不及预期；宇树科技上市进展不及预期。 股权结构进一步优化。我们将此次交易视为首程控股进一步优化其持股结构的重要契机。2025 年之 前，首程控股股权结构的一大特征是产业投资者相对金融市场机构投资者占比偏高，长期资金相对短期 资金占比偏高，这一度压制了股票的流动性和新增机构投资者的介入。步入2025 年以后，公司做出多 次举措以持续改善流通盘，包括二季度面向海外投资者发行1.8 亿美元可转换债券，以及近期9 月初进 行了6 亿港元配股等等。如果说前两次操作对于公司股权造成一定的稀释，那么此次周大福创建的退 出，只涉及股份的交换，而不涉及增发。此次交易完成后，我们认为公司有效的流通盘比例（剔除一些 不太进行二级市场交易的产业和战略投资者）或从2025 年前10%左右扩大至30%左右，流动性显著改 善。此外，二季度的可转债以及本次周大福创建交换股份所引入的潜在投资者，我们认为可能多为海内 外主流的机构投资人，有望进一步改善公司的持股结构和二级市场交易活跃度。 未来3-6 个月公司仍有上行空间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant divergence in market performance between traditional value stocks ("老登股") and emerging technology stocks ("小登股") in the current investment landscape [8][9][10] - The term "老登股" refers to established sectors such as liquor, real estate, and coal, while "小登股" encompasses high-growth areas like AI, computing, and semiconductors [4][9] - As of September 25, 2023, the performance of various sectors shows a stark contrast, with communication and electronic sectors rising by 67.91% and 53.58% respectively, while traditional sectors like coal and food & beverage have declined by 6.70% and 5.64% [5] Group 2 - The article discusses the rise of various ETFs, with the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF and Communication ETF both exceeding 100% growth year-to-date, indicating strong investor interest in innovative sectors [5][6] - The commentary from industry experts suggests a shift in investment strategies, emphasizing the need to focus on high-tech sectors for future growth, as traditional sectors may not sustain long-term market leadership [11][12] - The ongoing market dynamics reflect a fundamental change in investor sentiment, with a growing preference for technology-driven investments over traditional value stocks [10][12]

(原标题：港股午评：三大指数齐跌 科技股弱势 药品股集体走低 内房股活跃） 港股上午盘三大指数集体收跌，恒生科技指数跌幅相对最大，午间收跌1.04%，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌0.65%及0.61%。盘面上，作为市场 风向标的大型科技股集体低迷拖累大市下跌，其中，小米跌5.47%，快手、阿里巴巴、京东跌近2%，网易、美团、腾讯均有跌幅，百度逆势翻 红；特朗普宣布征收100%关税，药品类股全线下挫，歌礼制药、复星医药、绿叶制药、四环医药领跌创新药概念股；纸业股、苹果概念股、机器 人概念股、黄金股、体育用品股、影视股、航空股纷纷下跌。另一方面，多地房产政策持续推出，内房股逆势普涨，碧桂园、中国海外宏洋集 团、中国金茂涨幅居前，军工股、风电股、汽车股、乳制品股多数表现活跃，其中，奇瑞汽车上市第二日一度冲高至6%。(格隆汇) 相关ETF 食品饮料ETF (产品代码: 515170) ★ 跟踪：中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数 近五日涨跌: - 2.03% 估值分位:18.99% 游戏 ETF (产品代码：159869) ★ 跟踪：中证动漫游戏指数 近五日涨跌:0.06% 市盈率: 47.76倍 资金流向: 最新份额为58 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，优必选科技管理层有信心可在今明两年分别交付超过500及2000至3000台人形机 器人。公司指，人形机器人的平均售价为70万元，高于花旗预测的50万元。另外，公司计划通过模具或 3D打印生产结构部件，以进一步降低成本30%。 该行将优必选科技今明两年的收入预测分别上调5%和3%，并将目标价由121港元上调至170港元，以反 映UBTECH人形机器人的良好前景。由于公司交易纪录上升，且净亏损收窄，该行对其"买入/高风 险"评级并转为"买入"。 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，海天国际管理层透露近期订单出现放缓，目前预测下半年收入增长可能降至高单 位数，低于上半年的12.5%增幅。该行将该公司剔出中国工业首选名单，并将2025至2027年盈利预测下 调2%，目标价由33.5港元降至30港元，但仍维持"买入"评级，认为现价估值偏低，而股息回报约4%。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong technology stocks showed a quick recovery after a low opening, with companies like Xpeng Motors, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and GDS Holdings rising over 2%, while Alibaba, Baidu, and NetEase saw their declines narrow [1] - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) fell by 0.25%, with a trading volume exceeding 46 million HKD, indicating increased market activity [1] - In the early trading session, there was a net inflow of approximately 39 million HKD, contributing to a total net inflow of 287 million HKD over the past 10 trading days [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group held its annual presentation and autumn product launch, highlighting the release of the Xiaomi 17 series smartphones and improvements in the delivery cycle for Xiaomi cars [5][6] - The Xiaomi 17 standard version features Qualcomm's fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 platform, representing the highest level in the Android ecosystem [4] - CEO Lei Jun announced that the delivery cycle for some car models could be shortened by up to 6 weeks, with weekly delivery volumes increasing from 7,000 units in July to 10,000-12,000 units in August [5] Group 3 - Southbound funds showed strong interest in Chinese "hard technology" assets, with net purchases exceeding 11 billion HKD, particularly in technology stocks like Alibaba and Tencent [6] - According to statistics, Alibaba-W saw a net purchase of over 4.6 billion HKD, while Tencent Holdings and SMIC also ranked high in net buying [7] - Longjiang Securities expressed optimism about the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting three key areas for future growth: AI technology, new consumption, and the impact of continuous capital inflows [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks have shown a significant upward trend, driven by recent policy optimizations aimed at supporting reasonable housing demand across various cities in China [1] Company Performance - Country Garden saw an increase of over 5% in its stock price, while China Overseas Macro Group rose by 4% and Ronshine China by 3.5% [2] - Other notable performers include Vanke Enterprises, Longfor Group, and Oceanwide Holdings, each rising nearly 3%, and China Jinmao increasing by 2% [2] Policy Developments - Multiple cities in China have recently optimized real estate policies, including Dongguan offering a subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price for eligible homebuyers, capped at 30,000 yuan [1] - Sichuan is implementing a "one city, one policy" approach to stabilize the real estate market, while Guangzhou has introduced new policies allowing property companies to sell self-held housing [1] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have adjusted their purchase restrictions, indicating a broader trend of policy support for the housing market [1] - New first-tier cities are reportedly studying the latest real estate policies to further stimulate housing demand and enhance purchase support [1]

摩根士丹利发表研报指，有媒体称，宁德时代可能于明年推出NCM811电池组产品，将增程序电动车 (EREV)电池容量提升至80kWh，较目前每单位30至50kWh有所增加。宁德时代尚未确认此消息。大摩 表示，继宁德时代今年向EREV市场推出Freevoy电池产品后，认为明年新产品可进一步将公司续航里程 提升至大于600km。新技术可与最先进的NP3.0(无传播)技术结合，提升安全性和长寿技术，以增加循环 寿命。大摩视此为宁德时代展示其动力系统解决方案能力的另一例证，并指公司迭代不断，旨在为动力 系统提供更好的性能。大摩重申对宁德时代A股"增持"评级，目标价425元；同予其港股"增持"评级。 ...

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - Investors believe that the strong support level is at 26,400, holding bull certificates with a redemption price of 25,900. Bearish investors expect a drop to 26,050, holding bear certificates with a redemption price of 27,078 [1] - Technical signals indicate a "sell" recommendation, with support levels at 25,800 and 25,400, while resistance is at 26,900. There are numerous bull certificates near the redemption price of 25,400, with leverage exceeding 21 times [1] - Investors are advised to compare product terms carefully, as some products with higher redemption prices may offer lower leverage and higher premiums, making them less attractive [1] Group 2: Pop Mart (09992.HK) - Investors are inquiring about the possibility of bull certificates dropping to 250 HKD, while others are optimistic about a rise to 268 HKD, holding bull certificates with a redemption price of 240 HKD [8] - The stock price rose to 261.8 HKD, with support identified at 247 HKD. The technical signal is a "buy," with resistance at 283 HKD [8] - Investors are cautioned against short-term products expiring between October and December due to significant time value decay, while longer-term products may offer better leverage [8] Group 3: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - The stock price has been rising, reaching a high of 31.62 HKD, approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands. Resistance levels are at 32.9 HKD and 33.8 HKD, with a short-term signal indicating a "sell" [15] Group 4: Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750.HK) - The stock price closed at 532 HKD, with a high of 535.5 HKD, nearing the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands. The first resistance level is at 558 HKD, with a potential second resistance at 604 HKD [21] - Investors are advised to consider products with exercise prices between 560-590 HKD, which have lower premiums and higher probabilities of moving from out-of-the-money to in-the-money [21] Group 5: Li Auto (02015.HK) - The stock price has surpassed 100 HKD, closing at 102 HKD, with technical signals indicating a "buy." Resistance levels are at 106 HKD and 110 HKD, with a target of 120 HKD [26] Group 6: AAC Technologies (02018.HK) - The stock has been declining, and the short-term trend is a "sell." Investors looking for entry points should exercise patience, with support levels at 44.2 HKD and 41.1 HKD [31]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% at 3846.33 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.17% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 138.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2500 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - Wind power equipment stocks saw a significant increase, with companies like Jixin Technology, Riyue Shares, and Yangming Intelligent hitting the daily limit [1] - Copper-related stocks continued to strengthen, with Jingyi Shares achieving three consecutive limits and Shengtun Mining rising over 7%, as global copper supply tightens; Citigroup predicts copper prices will rise to $12,000 per ton in the next 6 to 12 months [1] - Real estate stocks experienced a broad rally, with Hefei Urban Construction hitting the daily limit and Shanghai Urban Development rising over 8%, following a month of new policies in the Shanghai housing market that saw new home transactions increase by 19% month-on-month [1] Individual Stock Movements - Sailyus reached its daily limit and hit a historical high as the company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its H-share issuance [2] - The gaming sector faced a pullback, with Jibite hitting the daily limit and companies like Kunlun Wanwei and Xinghui Entertainment dropping over 5% [1] - AI hardware sectors, including CPO and liquid-cooled servers, declined, with Lianang Micro falling over 9% and companies like Aggregated Materials and Chuanrun Shares dropping over 6% [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks generally fell, with Haocen Medical dropping over 9% and Hanyu Pharmaceutical and Hongjing Technology declining over 6%, as the U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products [1]