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Deepseek新模型有望2月发布,这些方向成潜在发酵重点
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-15 08:19
Group 1 - DeepSeek is set to release its flagship AI model, DeepSeek V4, in February, which reportedly surpasses current top models in programming capabilities [1] - The core innovation of V4 is the Engram module, which separates knowledge storage from logical reasoning, allowing for efficient retrieval of static knowledge [2][3] - The Engram module is expected to reduce the reliance on high-cost GPU memory (HBM) by migrating 20%-25% of static knowledge parameters to main memory (DRAM), significantly altering the model's storage requirements [3] Group 2 - AI programming is a key focus for major companies, with DeepSeek's advancements potentially enhancing the usage of domestic integrated development environments (IDEs) and benefiting low-code platforms [4] - The upcoming V4 model may improve the cost-effectiveness of AI applications and could support domestic chip architectures, which would accelerate the development of the domestic AI industry [5] - Historical performance of DeepSeek's previous model, R1, saw significant stock price increases, indicating strong market interest in its AI technologies [6] Group 3 - Relevant companies in the SSD storage sector include Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Baiwei Storage, while application vendors include Hehe Information, Wanxing Technology, and others [9] - Companies involved in computing infrastructure include Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and others, indicating a broad ecosystem supporting DeepSeek's advancements [9]
“产能非常紧张”!台积电业绩指引全线超预期,未来三年资本支出将显著增加
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-15 06:57
Group 1 - TSMC expects capital expenditures to surge to $56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations and reflecting strong confidence in the sustainability of global AI growth [1] - The company forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% in 2026, surpassing analyst average expectations [1] - TSMC's Q1 revenue guidance is projected to reach between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $33.22 billion [1] Group 2 - TSMC's strong outlook signals positive trends for AI development, supporting demand for NVIDIA accelerators and alleviating concerns about the sustainability of data center spending by tech giants like Meta and Amazon [3] - TSMC reported a net profit of NT$505.7 billion for Q4 2025, a 35% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [3] - The company’s gross margin improved from 59.5% to 62.3%, and operating margin increased from 50.6% to 54%, both surpassing analyst forecasts [3] Group 3 - A severe shortage of memory chips in 2025 may pose challenges to TSMC's broader business, as manufacturers prioritize high-end memory production for NVIDIA and AMD chips [4] - The memory shortage is expected to impact mobile device sales in 2026, with smartphone sales projected to decline by 11.6% year-over-year according to Macquarie Capital [4]
【大涨解读】无人驾驶:上海发文剑指L4级自动驾驶目标,马斯克旗下自动驾驶软件也有大动作,行业规模化落地加速
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-15 02:58
Market Performance - On January 15, the autonomous driving sector showed strong performance, with companies like Weidi Co., Suoling Co., and others hitting the daily limit up [1] - Notable stock movements included Shenglu Communication (+9.97%), Weidi Co. (+10.00%), Hengshuai Co. (+8.44%), and others showing significant gains [2] Events - On January 14, Shanghai's Economic and Information Commission, Transportation Commission, and Public Security Bureau jointly issued the "Shanghai High-Level Autonomous Driving Leading Area 'Mosu Zhixing' Action Plan," aiming for L4 autonomous driving applications by 2027, targeting over 6 million passengers and 800,000 standard containers, with a designated area of 2,000 square kilometers [3] - Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that starting February 14, the global market will stop selling the one-time purchase version of FSD (Full Self-Driving) capability, transitioning to a monthly subscription model [3] - On January 5, NVIDIA released the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models and simulation tools, introducing the industry's first open large-scale inference VLA model to support L4 autonomous driving [4] Institutional Insights - The combination of L3 access and L4 scenario expansion is catalyzing the industry towards a critical phase of large-scale implementation, with Shanghai's plan providing a clear policy path for commercialization [5] - The intelligent driving industry chain has formed a closed-loop collaboration from perception to execution, with a rapid increase in penetration rates expected to drive market expansion [5] - The global ADAS market is projected to grow from $34.65 billion in 2024 to $66.56 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 12.2% [6] - The automotive sensor market is expected to increase from $30.8 billion in 2023 to $62.2 billion by 2028, indicating strong growth potential for domestic supply chains in perception hardware and domain control platforms [6]
1月15日早餐 | 金属期货集体大涨
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-15 00:18
Market Overview - The three major US stock indices experienced their first consecutive declines since 2026, with the Nasdaq falling by 1%, marking its largest drop in nearly a month. The S&P 500 closed down 0.53% and the Dow Jones down 0.09% [1] - Technology stocks dragged down the market, with the "Big Seven" tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, all declining by over 2%. The semiconductor index halted a three-day rise, with Broadcom dropping over 4% [1] - Despite better-than-expected Q4 earnings, Bank of America and Citigroup saw declines of nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively, while Wells Fargo, which reported weaker profits, fell over 4% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.23%, with Ctrip dropping 17% and Arctech down 5%. Alibaba rose by about 2%, while Century Internet gained over 7% [1] Commodity and Currency Movements - US Treasury prices rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a one-week low. The dollar index fell after approaching a four-week high, while the offshore yuan slightly rebounded, briefly surpassing 6.97 [1] - Bitcoin surged nearly 4% from its daily low, breaking the $97,000 mark, reaching a nearly two-month high [1] - Precious metals saw a resurgence, with gold and silver hitting record highs for three consecutive days. Gold rose over 1%, and silver increased by nearly 8%. Tin and copper also reached historical highs, with tin rising by 11% and nickel up nearly 6% [1] Industry Developments - SK Hynix has halted production of consumer-grade memory chips, redirecting resources towards the B2B and AI server markets [3] - Key raw materials for PCBs, such as fiberglass cloth, are in short supply, prompting major companies like Apple to seek alternative suppliers [4] - The US plans to implement a manned lunar orbit mission in February [5] - Tesla will stop selling the FSD buyout version after February 14, offering it only as a monthly subscription [6] AI and Technology Innovations - OpenAI is investing $10 billion in partnership with Cerebras to deploy 750 megawatts of computing power over three years. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly taking initial steps, while SpaceX is in talks with several banks [7] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman and former Apple design chief Jony Ive are set to launch an AI device, code-named Sweetpea, expected to be released in September with an initial production target of 40 to 50 million units [7][13] - Alibaba is set to unveil its Qianwen app on January 15, which aims to integrate various life scenarios, enhancing its capabilities in the AI era [15] Financial Sector Updates - The Chinese Ministry of Finance held a video conference to promote a package of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [8] - Some mid-sized brokerage firms have exhausted their margin financing funds [8] - The tax rebate policy for housing exchanges will continue to support "selling old and buying new" for the 2026-2027 fiscal year [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the chaotic "price war" in the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing strict actions against violators [8]
【1月15日IPO雷达】至信股份上市
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-15 00:04
Core Viewpoint - The company is a significant player in the automotive supply chain in Southwest China, with a strong market position and comprehensive competitive advantages [2] Group 1: Financial Metrics - The issuance price is set at 21.88 yuan [2] - The total market capitalization is 4.959 billion yuan [2] - The issuance price-to-earnings ratio is 26.85 [2] - The subscription rate is 0.02% [2] Group 2: Business Highlights - The company is one of the major suppliers for leading automotive brands such as Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile, BYD, and NIO, with a core product market share leading in the domestic market [2] - The company has established a complete industrial chain system, including mold development and manufacturing, with business operations covering major automotive industry clusters across the country [2]
对标苹果核心产品,OpenAI首款AI硬件曝光
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-14 23:37
Group 1 - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and former Apple design chief Jony Ive are set to launch an AI device, codenamed Sweetpea, aimed at competing with Apple's AirPods, with an expected release in September and a planned first-year production of 40 to 50 million units [1] - The device will utilize a 2nm process smartphone chip, with Samsung's Exynos chip as the primary choice, and a custom chip already developed, indicating a higher cost due to materials and components being similar to smartphones [1] - The CES 2026 showcased AI headphones as a focal point, shifting innovation from single audio performance to a combination of "audio quality + AI + multimodal" capabilities, with some products integrating cameras and environmental sensing features [1] Group 2 - The AI headphone market is projected to grow significantly, with a global market size of 3.36 billion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 75.9 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 118% [2] - The integration of AI technology with smart headphones and glasses is expected to drive demand for high-performance acoustic sensors and miniature speakers, potentially expanding to more AI smart hardware, creating new growth opportunities for industry players [2] - Companies like Luxshare Precision and GoerTek are anticipated to participate in the supply chain for the new AI device, while Guoguang Electric is focusing on developing smart speakers, AI glasses, AI headphones, and VR/AR products, with plans for mass production of AI glasses [3]
金属牛市之后,下游不锈钢产业跃跃欲试,期货率先一度涨停
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-14 23:22
Industry Overview - Nickel prices have surged due to Vale's suspension of nickel mining in Indonesia, impacting stainless steel as it accounts for 68% of nickel's downstream demand [1] - The stainless steel industry is experiencing growth, driven by its strong corrosion resistance and expanding application fields [1] - Stainless steel is one of the faster-growing categories among major metals [1] Production Capacity - Current planned production capacity for stainless steel in China and Indonesia remains high, but future approvals may be cautious due to carbon neutrality policies [1] - The implementation timeline for planned capacity projects may be extended [1] - Domestic companies are actively establishing operations in Indonesia, indicating a potential shift in stainless steel production capacity from China to Indonesia [1] Company Insights - Taiyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. focuses on stainless steel production [1] - Yongjin Metal's project for processing 1.2 million tons of high-quality wide stainless steel plates has begun ramping up production since last year [1]
阿里巴巴将召开千问App发布会 ,AI闪购或将推出
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-14 15:43
Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is launching the Qianwen App, which aims to integrate various life scenarios such as maps, food delivery, shopping, and health, positioning it as a key player in the AI era [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Qianwen App will be officially launched on January 15 at 10:00 AM, showcasing how AI can "open the era of handling affairs" [1] - The app will initially integrate with Gaode, enabling it to understand and act in the physical world, moving beyond simple text suggestions to provide visual decision-making tools [1] Group 2: AI Integration and Capabilities - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase leverages Alibaba Cloud and Tongyi's large model to fully productize and toolize AI capabilities, allowing users to access the Qianwen App via mobile [1] - The Taobao Flash Purchase service utilizes AI technology to match millions of riders, stores, and thousands of products, ensuring faster and more accurate fulfillment [1] Group 3: Market Implications - Related A-share concept stocks mentioned include Zhongbai Group and Eurasia Group, indicating potential investment opportunities linked to Alibaba's developments [1]
智能感知领域重要突破,把集成电路做成“保鲜膜”
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-14 15:36
据中证报报道,复杂精密的电子电路化身"热缩保鲜膜",热风一吹,便严丝合缝地贴附在任意形状的物 体表面——这一充满想象力的技术场景正在走向现实。据报道,近日,天津大学精密测试技术及仪器全 国重点实验室黄显、国瑞团队与清华大学深圳国际研究生院汪鸿章团队合作,提出一种基于液态金属电 路与热塑性薄膜的"热缩制备策略",为柔性电子与智能感知领域带来重要突破。研究团队依靠此项技术 已成功为机器人手臂、头部定制了贴合触觉传感器阵列,让机器人拥有了灵敏的"电子皮肤"。 中证报指出,柔性电子产业正迎来技术爆发与市场扩张的黄金期,随着技术不断成熟和应用场景持续拓 展,未来将深刻改变消费电子、医疗健康、智能交通等多个领域的产业格局,为人类生活带来革命性变 化。' *免责声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议 *风险提示:股市有风险,入市需谨慎 机构预计,到2030年柔性电子全球市场规模将突破8000亿元人民币,年复合增长率保持在18%-25%之 间。中国凭借完整的产业链、强大的制造能力和持续的政策支持,有望在全球柔性电子市场中占据重要 地位,实现从"跟跑"到"并跑"乃至局部"领跑"。 公司方面,据证券时报表示,A股相关概念股有 濮 ...
快手可灵AI商业化提速超预期,两家密切合作有望受益 
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-01-14 15:36
首都在线:与可灵签署战略合作协议,为其提供云计算与GPU算力支持,并接入视频大模型API推动商 业化落地。 *免责声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议 *风险提示:股市有风险,入市需谨慎 据证券时报报道,快手日前披露,旗下可灵AI在2025年12月当月收入突破2000万美元,对应年化收入 运行率(ARR)达2.4亿美元,显示其商业化进展持续提速。可灵AI曾于2025年3月宣布ARR突破1亿美 元。短短9个月内,ARR实现翻倍以上增长,商业化爬坡速度显著快于市场预期。此外,快手科技在与 投资者沟通时表示2025年的总资本支出预计超过140亿元人民币,其中超过三分之二投向人工智能平台 可灵,公司计划今年维持类似的资本支出分配结构。 多家国际投行在最新研报中指出,可灵AI的商业化已逐步进入兑现阶段。花旗表示,可灵12月单月收 入略高于此前预期,这一表现指向2026年全年收入仍存在上修空间;摩根士丹利测算,2025年第四季度 可灵AI收入约为3.5–4亿元人民币,明显高于公司此前3亿元人民币的指引。东吴证券看好技术突破以及 AI爆款视频出圈推动AI在视频生产行业渗透率提升,可灵作为头部玩家之一享受成长红利。 公司方 ...