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A股分析师前瞻:兼具胜率与赔率,策略分析师普遍看好持股过节
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-08 13:49
本周各家券商策略分析师讨论的焦点在于是否持股过节,整体偏向乐观。 华西策略李立峰团队也指出,可稳步备战节后"红包"行情。 其复盘2017-2025年,万得全A春节后10个交易日平均涨幅3.3%,春节前10个交易日平均跌幅-1.3%,多数年份节后表现优于节 前。从胜率角度看,近九年万得全A春节后5个交易日、春节后10个交易日胜率分别为78%、78%,相较春节前胜率有明显抬升; 行业层面,31个申万一级行业中28个节后胜率高于节前,TMT指数在春节后5个交易日、10个交易日的胜率分别为89%、100%, 相比节前有明显提升,指向科技板块通常在节后阶段表现较好,弹性更足。 银河策略杨超团队称,A股市场上行动能仍较强,春节后上涨概率或大幅提升,"持币"虽可锁定确定性收益,但极有可能部分失 去节后上涨带来的超额收益。以2016年至2025年间历 史规律看,春节前,资金偏好向高股息、消费、防御板块集中,大盘风格表现占优,随着春节将至,A股市场逐步修复回暖,或 出现"节前躁动";春节后,A股市场上涨概率较大,资金转向小盘风格,周期风格和成长风格表现更优。 广发策略刘晨明团队指出,目前4000点左右的位置,占据天时地利人和。 ...
2月8日周末公告汇总 | 晶合集成拟20亿取得晶奕集成100%股权;沪硅产业拟签订逾30亿电子级多晶硅框架合同
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-08 12:01
一、复牌、停牌 1、龙韵股份:拟以发行股份方式购买愚恒影业58%股权,股票复牌。 2、瑞立科密:拟发行股份购买武汉科德斯16%股权,股票停牌。 3、永太科技:拟购买永太高新25%股权,宁德时代将成为公司股东,股票停牌。 二、并购、重组 1、晶合集成:拟20亿元取得晶奕集成100%股权;晶奕集成是晶合集成四期项目的建设主体。 2、沙河股份:拟2.74亿元购买晶华电子70%股权;标的公司主营业务为物联网领域智能显示控制器、 液晶显示器件等产品研发。 3、壹网壹创:拟发行股份及支付现金购买联世传奇100%股权;标的公司是一家以AI算法为核心的全域 智能营销服务商。 4、杉杉股份:控股股东及其子公司签署重整投资协议;若重整成功,公司实际控制人将变更为安徽省 国资委。 三、股权转让、增持 1、东望时代:控股股东拟公开征集转让6%股份。 2、康泰生物:股东袁莉萍拟向华宝万盈私募基金转让2%。 1、沪硅产业:拟签订采购30.45亿元电子级多晶硅框架合同。 2、东田微:拟投资4亿元建设全球研发中心及华南制造总部项目 主要从事研发光通信精密光学元器件 等。 3、震裕科技:拟在泰国投资建设年产1500万件精密传动部件生产制造基地 ...
A股五张图:节前开始对掏红包了?
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-06 10:31
Market Overview - The market experienced a low open followed by a rebound, but overall profitability remained poor [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closed down by 0.25%, 0.33%, and 0.73% respectively, with total trading volume shrinking to 2.1 trillion [4] Sector Performance - The Traditional Chinese Medicine sector opened high but showed a trend of high open and low close [3] - The PCB sector saw a strong morning performance with stocks like Shenzhen South Circuit hitting the daily limit, but retreated in the afternoon [3] - Solid-state and sodium-ion battery stocks showed localized strength, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The space photovoltaic sector rebounded in the afternoon, with stocks like GCL-Poly Energy achieving three consecutive daily limits [3] AI Applications - AI application stocks faced significant declines, following a downturn in the Nasdaq index, marking the worst three-day drop since April 2025 [9] - Notable declines included FaceSet dropping over 7% and Thomson Reuters falling over 5% [9] - The release of a new AI model by Anthropic raised concerns about potential disruptions to traditional software business models, leading to market panic [9] Precious Metals - Precious metals like silver and gold experienced violent declines in overseas markets, leading to a significant drop in A-share prices [13] - Despite initial low openings, the sector saw a collective rebound, with stocks like Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit [13] - Overall, most precious metal stocks ended the day either slightly up or down, with gold rising by 0.76% and silver down by only 1% [13] Company-Specific Events - Alibaba's Qianwen launched a promotional event offering free milk tea, which generated significant online buzz and led to a surge in related concept stocks [7] - The event caused a temporary disruption to the Qianwen platform due to high traffic, but also positively impacted stocks in the "milk tea" sector [7]
龙虎榜复盘丨题材整体散乱,电池板块迎来机构集体买入
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-06 09:51
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that 29 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard today, with 19 stocks experiencing net buying and 10 stocks facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions are Enjie Co., Ltd. (1.8 billion), Hongbaoli (1.13 billion), and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (1.03 billion) [1] - Enjie Co., Ltd. saw a price increase of 10.00%, while Hongbaoli and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings had price increases of 1.94% and 10.10%, respectively [2] Group 2 - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings had a net buying of 1.03 billion from three institutions, and there are rumors that Elon Musk's team recently visited several photovoltaic companies in China [3] - GCL Group confirmed the news regarding Musk's research visit [3] - On February 5, Changan Automobile, in collaboration with CATL, launched a global sodium battery strategy, unveiling the world's first mass-produced sodium battery passenger vehicle, expected to be launched mid-year [3]
2月6日主题复盘 | 化工、石油等资源股表现居前、机器人反弹,太空光伏修复,算力概念持续异动
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-06 09:24
一、行情回顾 市场早间低开回升,三大指数集体翻红,尾盘又震荡回落。化工股集体走强,沧州大化、金牛化工等多股涨停;油气股盘中拉升,洲际油气地天板,准油股 份涨停;机器人概念股表现活跃,五洲新春、联诚精密等涨停;固态电池概念强势,恩捷股份、三祥新材等涨停;下跌方面,零售、白酒等消费股调整,百 大集团、皇台酒业跌停。个股涨跌互现,今日成交2.16万亿;截止收盘沪指跌0.25%,深成指跌0.33%,创业板指跌0.73%。两市共2574只个股上涨,61只个 股涨停,2444只个股下跌,10只个股跌停,26只股票炸板,炸板率33%。 二、今日热点 1、化工 以化工为首的资源股今日涨幅居前,龙头百川股份强势反包创新高,金牛化工、德美化工、沧州大化、闰土股份等集体上板。 消息面上,多个化工品种出现涨价消息; 据新浪财经报道,2026年2月4日,巴斯夫宣布自即日起(或在合同条款允许的情况下),上调亚太地区(不含中国大陆)及MEAF地区的Lupranate® TDI价 格,涨幅为200美元/吨; 据百川资讯,1月12日以来溴素价格呈加速上涨趋势,国内溴素价格从1月12日的34500元/吨,到2月4日已上涨至42500元/吨,涨幅 ...
2月6日早餐 | 海外市场连续下挫;OpenAI推出新产品
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-06 00:13
Market Overview - US employment data shows weakness, leading to a decline in the stock market, with the S&P 500 down 1.23%, Dow Jones down 1.20%, and Nasdaq down 1.59% [1] - Software stocks ETF fell by 5%, with Oracle down nearly 7% and Microsoft down nearly 5% [2] - Gold prices dropped by 4%, silver plummeted by 19%, and cryptocurrencies faced significant losses, with Bitcoin down 12% and Ethereum down 11% [4] AI and Technology Developments - Amazon unexpectedly raised its spending guidance for AI to $200 billion, causing a post-market drop of over 10% [3] - Anthropic launched a new AI model, Claude Opus4.6, focused on financial research, while OpenAI introduced GPT-5.3-Codex, touted as the strongest programming agent to date [5] - Nvidia announced a delay in the release of new gaming chips due to a shortage of storage chips [6] - Apple plans to launch a "budget version" MacBook using iPhone chips, priced below $799 [7] Chinese Market Movements - Chinese concept stocks index rose against the market trend, with Baidu up 0.73% and Meituan acquiring Dingdong Maicai, which saw Meituan rise over 2% while Dingdong Maicai fell 15% [8] Sector Insights - Semiconductor sector: Infineon announced a price increase for power switches and related chips starting April 1, 2026, due to ongoing supply shortages and rising costs [11] - Huawei's HarmonyOS version of WeChat app surpassed 40 million installations, marking significant growth in its ecosystem [12] - Gas turbine manufacturers like GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are seeing increased orders due to a surge in natural gas power generation capacity in the US [13] Company Announcements - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire 15.6424% of Kaide Quartz, with stock resuming trading [17] - Guoxuan High-Tech intends to raise no more than 5 billion yuan for a 20GWh power battery project [17] - Lixun Precision is set to engage in foreign exchange derivatives trading for up to one year, with a total not exceeding $4.9 billion [17] - Southeast Network Engineering won a joint bid for a 9.94 billion yuan EPC project [18]
成本上升叠加AI需求,功率半导体龙头宣布提价
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-05 23:34
Group 1 - Infineon announced a price increase for power switches and related chips starting April 1, 2026, due to ongoing supply constraints and rising costs of raw materials and infrastructure [1] - The semiconductor market is experiencing significant demand growth for certain Infineon products, primarily driven by the large deployment of artificial intelligence data centers, leading to shortages of power switches and related chips [1] - To support the increasing demand, Infineon plans to make substantial additional investments to expand wafer production capacity [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities analysis indicates that power device demand is accelerating due to exponential increases in electricity consumption at data centers, with SiC/GaN technologies expected to see growth opportunities [1] - The demand for energy storage is also increasing, which is driving a simultaneous rise in power device demand [1] - In a context of moderate demand recovery, prices are stabilizing, and with leading companies increasing their market share, overall growth is expected to remain steady [1]
核心应用用户量破四千万,鸿蒙软件生态进化再度提速
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-05 23:19
国科微:公司已完成智慧视觉、商用大屏、影音方案从OpenHarmony3.1到OpenHarmony5.1版本迭代。 截至目前,国科微旗下8款开源鸿蒙芯片平台实现在智慧家庭、智慧视觉、智慧大屏以及商业显示等行 业的量产商用。 芯海科技:通过"芯片+算法+系统"的全链路创新,发力"鸿蒙化"产品。 *免责声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议 *风险提示:股市有风险,入市需谨慎 点评:去年底,华为发布Mate80系列和MateX7等产品,国联民生认为,不仅是硬件层面的更新,更是 软件生态进化的集中呈现,是鸿蒙生态从突破走向成熟好用的里程碑鸿蒙生态经历过一年飞速成长,已 有超30万应用与元服务,适配度超95%,鸿蒙生态与头部互联网应用已全部完成适配,中长尾应用加速 上线,覆盖政务民生、金融理财、交通出行、影音娱乐等多个行业。伴随9000多个应用参与了70多种系 统级创新体验的联合打造,鸿蒙生态在"可用"的基础上加快迈向"好用"。 其他生态方面,华创证券统计,搭载开源鸿蒙产品种类超1200款,总量超11.9亿台,开发者超720万, 上架应用与元服务数量超2.5万个。同时,系统级智能体小艺通过导航条、语音对话、搜索、建 ...
阿里千问成为奥运首个官方大模型,AI生态推进加速
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-05 14:56
Group 1 - The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has launched the first official large model in Olympic history, developed based on Alibaba's Qianwen model, marking a significant advancement in AI applications for the Olympics [1] - Alibaba's Qianwen App has introduced over 400 AI service functions, including shopping, food delivery, and travel planning, fully integrating with Alibaba's ecosystem services such as Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy, indicating a shift to an "AI service era" [1] - The acceleration of AI ecosystem development by major domestic companies, combined with advancements in domestic AI computing power technology, is driving the domestic AI infrastructure into a phase of "advanced construction" [1] Group 2 - DataPort provides three main services: IDC business, IDC solutions, and cloud service sales, making it one of the few cloud data center service providers in China that serves major internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and NetEase [2] - Guangyun Technology offers SaaS products and value-added services across major e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, Ele.me, and Kuaishou, establishing a strong reputation and brand effect in the industry [2]
美国电荒引发燃气轮机短缺,部分订单排期已达4-5年
Xuan Gu Bao· 2026-02-05 14:56
据上证报2月5日报道,美国数据中心建设热潮引发用电荒,天然气被视为最佳解决方案。全球能源监测 机构的全球油气工厂追踪数据显示,截至2026年1月,美国在建天然气发电装机容量超过29GW,一年 内翻了一番还多。不过这其中许多项目可能几年内都无法开工,主要就是因为制造商缺乏可用的燃气轮 机。GEVernova首席执行官指出,2025年该公司的燃气轮机合同量增长了约80%,然而大部分在过去两 年内签订的高利润订单需要到2027年以后才能开始交付。 西南证券认为,从燃气轮机头部厂商来看,GEV,西门子能源,三菱重工订单加速提升,在手订单排 期已达4-5年,后续将持续扩大产能。GEV原计划于2026Q3实现燃机年产能20GW,现已前移至2026H1 完成目标,并进一步上调扩产计划至2028年24GW。为支撑产能上调,GEV预计于2025年-2028年持续 投入100亿美元资本开支。国内主机厂,成撬商,零部件厂商有望受益于本轮AI数据中心建设驱动的电 力需求上行周期。 公司方面,据上证报表示, 杰瑞股份:公司是国内油气装备龙头企业,钻完井业务,天然气业务,燃气轮机发电机组业务在国内外 市场均实现突破。 联德股份:公司深度 ...