Market Performance - The 30-year treasury futures contract closed down 0.05%, while the 10-year contract rose 0.03%. The 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.02% and 0.03% respectively. The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.1 basis points to 1.8615%, and the ultra-long government bond yield increasing by 3.05 basis points to 2.282% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 135 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a bid rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate. On the same day, 482.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the weighted rate of DR001 rose by 2.05 basis points to 1.2624%, while DR007 increased by 0.26 basis points to 1.4312%. In the exchange repo market, the weighted average rate of GC001 fell by 47.61 basis points to 1.5044%, and GC007 decreased by 21.11 basis points to 1.5329%. The overnight SHIBOR was reported at 1.264%, up by 0.6 basis points, while the 1-week SHIBOR fell by 0.5 basis points to 1.423% [2] Operational Recommendations - The new redemption fee regulations for bond funds that took effect on December 31 had a weaker-than-expected negative impact on the bond market. Coupled with market expectations of a relaxation in banks' EVE indicators, this is expected to benefit long-term bond demand. However, concerns over the supply of government bonds at the beginning of the year have led to a weak market sentiment, affecting futures trading. The central bank's announcement of a bond purchase of only 50 billion yuan was below expectations, although the funding conditions remain stable and ample, which is relatively favorable for short-term bonds. The market is expected to experience increased volatility due to consistent behavior among participants, and stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may require clearer government bond supply structures [3]

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around 994.01 CNY per gram, with a latest report of 997.88 CNY per gram, reflecting a slight decline of 0.07% [1] - The gold price reached a high of 1001.16 CNY per gram and a low of 993.68 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The market maintains a strong bullish structure, with support levels continuously rising, suggesting a sustained upward trend in gold prices [3] Group 2 - European countries have expressed support for Denmark and Greenland in response to U.S. President Trump's renewed interest in Greenland, emphasizing the island's right to self-determination [2] - Denmark's Prime Minister Frederiksen firmly denied Trump's claims of authority over Greenland, asserting that its future should be decided by the Danish and Greenlandic people [2] - The EU Commission downplayed the comparison between Greenland and Venezuela, highlighting Greenland's status as a U.S. ally within NATO and supporting its autonomy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The latest gold futures prices indicate a slight decline in the market, with the current price at $4444.60 per ounce, down from the previous close of $4459.70 [2]. Group 1: Current Market Data - The latest price for gold futures is $4444.60 per ounce [2]. - The opening price was $4459.80, and the previous closing price was $4459.70 [2]. - The highest price reached today was $4471.60, while the lowest was $4437.90 [2].

Group 1 - The latest price of gold futures is 999.62 CNY per gram as of January 6, 2026 [2] - The opening price for gold futures was 994.02 CNY per gram, with a previous close of 995.00 CNY per gram [2] - The highest price reached today was 1003.92 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 991.60 CNY per gram [2]

Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 5, cup rubber is priced at 51.75 Thai Baht/kg (+2.26), and latex at 54.70 Thai Baht/kg (+0.50) [1] - Hainan private rubber is at 15,000 Yuan/ton, Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,890 USD/ton (+20), and Thai mixed rubber at 14,850 Yuan/ton (+150) [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points month-on-month, but down 8.37 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, down 1.92 percentage points month-on-month, but up 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.86 days, up 0.38 days month-on-month and up 5.64 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 43.78 days, up 1.87 days month-on-month and down 0.41 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export Data and Market Dynamics - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2] - The total export of standard rubber was 1.338 million tons, down 18% year-on-year; however, the export of smoked sheet rubber increased by 24% to 392,000 tons, and latex exports rose by 8% to 673,000 tons [2] - Exports to China amounted to 945,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with smoked sheet rubber exports to China surging by 248% [2] - Overall, Thailand's total natural and mixed rubber exports reached 4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with exports to China at 2.518 million tons, up 24% [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Supply-side improvements in overseas major producing areas are expected to pressure raw material prices, while factory restocking demand supports limited downside [2] - Post-holiday downstream replenishment is cautious, leading to weak purchasing sentiment for Thai mixed rubber, with significant inventory accumulation in Tianjin [2] - The market for natural rubber is characterized by ongoing competition between bullish and bearish sentiments, with previous short positions recommended to be maintained [2]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 5, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8950 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 (+50) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3200 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 5 (+25) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [2] Industry Insights - On January 5, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,645 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the previous day's settlement price [2] - Starting from the second half of January, three domestic butadiene facilities are expected to gradually restart, influenced by anticipated increases in exports and decreases in imports, which may lead to a reduction in net import volumes; however, overall supply is expected to remain ample, and port inventories are projected to stay at high levels [2] - The styrene-butadiene rubber facility at Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance and restart in mid to late January 2026 [2] - Demand from the tire and other rubber product industries is expected to remain stable, with some pre-Spring Festival stocking demand; however, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February [2] - Overall, limited cost support and weakening supply-demand dynamics suggest significant resistance to price increases for BR in January, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [2] Short-term Outlook - The short-term price range for BR2602 is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 12,000 CNY/ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the US dollar shows a "short-term strong, long-term weak" divergence, supported by geopolitical risk aversion but constrained by fundamental pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is the main anchor for dollar fluctuations, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points in 2025, bringing the current federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [1]. - The December meeting indicated a potential further rate cut in 2026, but recent statements from officials reveal a division, with some suggesting the Fed is close to halting rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The US military action against Venezuela has heightened global risk aversion, leading to a short-term inflow of funds into dollar assets, which has been a key driver for the recent dollar rebound [2]. - However, analysts believe that a single geopolitical event is unlikely to reverse the long-term trend, as the dollar index fell by 9.41% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017 due to weakening US economic conditions and "de-dollarization" trends [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a short-term oscillation pattern, with resistance at the 100 level and support around 97.50, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [2]. - Technical indicators show limited momentum, with the short-term moving average system not providing a clear trend signal, and the RSI not entering the strong buy zone [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with short-term support from geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed statements [3]. - Long-term downward pressures persist due to the continuation of the Fed's rate cut cycle, weakening US economic resilience, and ongoing issues related to the twin deficits and global central bank diversification [3].

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently in a volatile range, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, along with fluctuations in international oil prices and the structural trends of the US dollar index [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a monetary easing cycle, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points expected by 2025, while the Bank of Canada is maintaining its benchmark rate at 2.25% after four rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious policy stance [1][2] - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely linked to oil prices, which have recently declined due to OPEC+ production plans and weakening demand expectations, thereby reducing the attractiveness of the CAD [2] Group 2 - The USD index has seen a cumulative decline of over 9% in 2025, with predictions of a further 10% depreciation by the end of the year, which indirectly affects the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/CAD exchange rate is currently stable within a range, with no clear trend signals, and short-term indicators suggest a lack of momentum for significant breakthroughs [2] - Looking ahead, the USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to maintain its volatile range, with key resistance at 1.38 and support at 1.3750, while monitoring the monetary policy statements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, as well as economic data from both countries [3]

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周六福 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 27.64 -0.50 -1.78% 2.27% 1.53% 0.75% 0.00% 0.75% 1.53% 2.27% 27.50 27.71 27.93 28.14 28.35 28.57 28.78 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 2万 3万 5万 1月5日，周六福黄金价格报1363元/克，与本月初（1348元/克）相比，上涨了15元，涨幅1.11%。较本 月最高价相差0元/克，较本月最低价相差21元/克，均价1347元/克。 周六福黄金价格月度统计（1月1日-1月5日，单位：元/克） 当日价 1363 日涨幅 1.56% 最高价 1363 最低价 1342 顶位差 0 底位差 21 平均值 1347 ...