Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1,074.23 tons of gold as of January 13, with an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On January 13, the spot gold price closed at $4,594.90 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.18%, with an intraday high of $4,644.00 and a low of $4,576.70 [1] - The outlook for gold and silver remains optimistic through 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and a lack of fiscal discipline in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The expectation is that gold trading prices will exceed $5,000 per ounce in the second half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, currently trading around $4634.49 per ounce, supported by robust buying and liquidity returning to the market [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which fell short of analyst expectations, has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates this year, thereby supporting gold prices due to reduced opportunity costs [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. government's threats regarding Iran's internal unrest, are contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is maintaining an emerging rising wedge pattern, signaling a potential weakening of upward momentum, with a warning of a bearish reversal if prices break below the trend line with strong volume [2] - The 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is above the 50-day EMA, confirming a clear bullish bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions at 71.39, suggesting stretched momentum [2] - Immediate resistance is identified at the historical high of $4634.64 set on December 13, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $4650, while initial support is at the 9-day EMA of $4520.01 and further support at approximately $4470.00 [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 22,481, opening at 21,431 and reaching a high of 22,995, with a current price of 22,728, reflecting a 7.86% increase [1] - COMEX silver total inventory has decreased to approximately 437 million ounces as of January 12, with significant daily outflows of several million ounces [2] - Major silver warehouses have experienced concentrated withdrawals, leading to an exponential increase in delivery pressure [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted a rare "backwardation" in the futures market, indicating that investors are selling long-term contracts in favor of short-term contracts, showing a preference for physical metal [2] - The strong demand from the photovoltaic and AI industries is expected to make the current shortage difficult to alleviate in the short term [2] - Domestic silver sentiment is rising, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 2,600 yuan per kilogram, and the main contract is expected to operate within a range of 19,700 to 23,000 [2]

今日周三(1月14日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于20.195一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报20.298元/克， 上涨2.06%，最高触及20.514元/克，最低下探19.269元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储去年将政策利率下调了75个基点，并在去年12月暗示，可能会在新的一年暂停降息，以评估经济 的需求。 日图来看，纸白银价格开盘回调，目前从低位反弹，重回正值区间，一小时布林带向上扩宽，表明上涨 仍延续，一小时MACD直方图由负值转为正值，显示上涨动能回归，或继续走涨，DMI也显示处于上涨 趋势之中，纸白银走势下方关注18.50-19.50支撑，上方关注20.00-20.50阻力。 里士满联储行长巴尔金周二称12月通胀数据"令人鼓舞"，不过他指出，通胀往往在年初飙升，并表示希 望未来几个月通胀率将保持在温和水平。 "我认为，目前是一种微妙的平衡，"Barkin在华盛顿对美国CFA协会表示。他指出，通胀高于目标，但 似乎没有加速，失业率也没有失控。 "没有人希望通胀预期根深蒂固，也没有人希望就业市场进一步恶化，"巴尔金说，"有可能两者都不会 发生。" 【最新纸白银行情解析】 ...

从技术面来看，白银价格目前运行在明显的上升通道中，日线级别多头趋势保持完好。价格持续站稳于主要均线系统之 上，短期与中期均线呈多头排列，显示市场买盘力量依旧占据主导。 动能指标方面，14日相对强弱指标(RSI)已升至74.77，处于典型的超买区间，并较此前的72.52进一步抬升，表明上涨动 能仍在增强。 但同时，这也意味着短线继续大幅拉升的空间正在收窄。若RSI逐步回落并在70附近企稳，将有助于行情通过横盘整理 消化涨幅，从而为后续更稳健的上行创造条件； ADP周度就业报告：截至2025年12月20日的四周里，私人部门雇主平均每周增加11750个就业岗位。 本周的就业增长较上周新增的11,000个岗位有所上升。这标志着连续第六周实现就业正增长，此前10月和11月初曾经历 一段就业下滑期。 数据显示，自11月中旬以来出现显着转变，当时雇主平均每周减少8,500个岗位。此后劳动力市场稳步改善，四周移动 平均值在10月中旬转为正值，并在12月继续增强。 另外，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称：在我的领导下，美国经济正蓬勃发展！制造业复兴与家庭收入大幅增长，推动GDP 取得数十年来未见的增幅，我们正在经历一场去通胀式的经济繁 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices driven by global geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with gold reaching historical highs around $4634 and silver hitting $89.13 [1][2] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, while silver's increase is primarily due to physical supply shortages and export controls implemented by China [1] - The U.S. CPI data released recently met expectations, leading to a muted reaction in gold and silver prices, although a speech by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated no immediate reasons for further interest rate cuts, contributing to a short-term price pullback [1] Group 2 - For gold, the current bullish trend is noted, but caution is advised due to the rapid pace of price increases, with key support levels identified between $4560 and $4670 [2] - Silver remains strong above $86, with potential to challenge the $90 mark, but the rapid gains in the first half of the week warrant vigilance against risks [2] - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at $4627.79 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.93%, while spot silver is at $90.70 per ounce with a daily rise of 4.36% [2]

1月14日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报1099.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，玻璃主力最高触及1099.00元，下方探低1084.00元，跌幅达2.23%。 目前来看，玻璃行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于玻璃后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 金信期货分析称，春节前备货或短暂托底，节后需求淡季将加剧库存压力；玻璃冷修落地、地产刺激若 兑现，中期或企稳。交易策略：短期以宽幅震荡对待为主。 五矿期货指出，近期，随着多条产线陆续冷修，玻璃日熔量已降至近年来的低位（15.01万吨），叠加 燃料成本上涨形成的支撑，共同提振了市场情绪并带动价格上行。现货端，受盘面情绪提振影响，多家 玻璃厂商宣布提价，经销商拿货情绪尚可。然而，受传统淡季影响，终端订单增长乏力，加之行业整体 库存压力依然较大，持续制约着价格的上行空间。后续市场关注点仍需聚焦于高库存的消化进展、现货 实际成交表现，短期波动较大，建议观望为主。 建信期货表示，当前玻璃行业经历新一轮产能出清的周期，因此短期内供应收缩将成为支撑价格的核心 因素。但短期内高库存的矛盾依然是制约行情的主要因素，且出口退 ...

1月14日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，沪锡期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅8%，报413170 元/吨，创历史新高。 宏观上，据南华期货（603093）介绍，美CPI数据出炉，虽众多美官员提示目前数据不支持降息，但市 场降息预期加强。 供给方面，五矿期货指出，缅甸佤邦锡矿产量逐步恢复，云南地区冶炼厂开工率维持在高位，上周开工 率为87.09%，与前周基本持平，但由于锡矿加工费持续处于低位，企业进一步开工意愿不足；江西地 区冶炼厂则面临再生原料供应不足的困境，精锡产量延续偏低水平，上周部分企业进一步小幅减产。 需求端，东海期货分析称，旺季不旺，行业分化严重，新能源汽车和AI算力需求稳定增长，但传统电 力和家电领域需求订单欠佳，另外光伏装机同比大幅下降。 展望后市，国泰君安期货表示，即便锡价已来到历史高位，但国内锡矿及锡锭的"隐形库存"相对干涸， 库存累积不及预期，甚至阶段性出现去库情况，库存水平仍处于历史中游区间。此外，其指出，锡在终 端应用上较为分散，使得终端对价格上涨并不敏感，价格上方的天然约束相对较轻。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 7157.00 yuan and currently trading at 7124.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.19% increase [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Changjiang Futures adopts a cautious and bearish outlook on styrene, citing high valuations and a replenished overseas gap, alongside high inventory levels and difficulties in receiving near-month contracts due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2] -招商期货 expects the styrene market to experience fluctuations in the short term, with supply-demand pressures and low valuations, while also noting that the export volume has increased significantly [3] -瑞达期货 predicts a strong fluctuation for EB2602 in the short term, supported by stable inventory levels and a slight increase in production capacity utilization, despite mixed changes in downstream operating rates [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Changjiang Futures emphasizes the need to monitor cost and supply-demand dynamics for potential improvements in the medium to long term, particularly focusing on crude oil and pure benzene prices [2] -招商期货 highlights that the supply-demand pressure for pure benzene is greater than that for styrene, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips for styrene or pure benzene in the second quarter [3] -瑞达期货 notes that the current supply-demand balance is tight, providing some price support, while also indicating that geopolitical tensions may affect crude oil supply, which could influence market dynamics [3]

一、行情回顾 三、机构观点 正信期货：尽管原油与煤炭价格仍处高位，但成本对乙二醇的支撑作用持续弱化；供需格局来看，供应端增量预期较强，新装置稳步放量、检修 产能陆续回归，而需求端受织造淡季深化及春节临近影响，聚酯开工负荷下滑预期较强。华东主港库存延续累库预期，缺乏有效去库驱动。在远 期供需宽松格局主导下，预计春节前乙二醇将以偏弱震荡为主，关注节后下游复工节奏及新增产能实际释放进度。 上一交易日，乙二醇期货主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅1.4%。 二、基本面汇总 1月14日早间乙二醇市场商谈氛围震荡偏强运行。基差表现平稳。现货商谈3705-3708；基差05-148/148；1月下基差05-138/140；2月下基差05- 89/91；3月下基差05-40/43。(单位：元/吨) 1月12日，新疆恒联年产120万吨(一期60万吨)煤制乙二醇项目气化装置和乙二醇装置工艺包开工会在西安举行。项目以氢气、一氧化碳为原料， 采用航天迈未气化工艺。 美金方面，乙二醇外盘重心震荡走弱，市场商谈一般。早间近期船货商谈在448美元/吨附近，午后盘面持续下行，近期到港船货成交至438美元/ 吨附近，2月船货商谈回落至442-443美元/ ...