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Core Viewpoint - The ICE US Dollar Index has entered a downward trend, breaking key support levels and ending a previous streak of gains, indicating short-term pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a significant number of dissenting votes, highlighting deep internal divisions among committee members regarding interest rate policy [1] - There are two opposing factions within the dissenting group: one advocating for maintaining rates to prevent sticky inflation, while the other supports larger rate cuts to address weak employment [1] - The divergence in opinions among committee members has led to decreased predictability in policy, undermining market confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Policies - Central bank policies among major economies are increasingly diverging, exerting continuous pressure on the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, but the pace of future cuts remains uncertain; the European Central Bank has paused cuts, while the Bank of Japan is gradually increasing rates [1] - This lack of coordinated policy among central banks disrupts the previous supportive environment for the dollar, making it difficult for the currency to rely on a single easing cycle for sustained support [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "growth and employment temperature gap," with GDP growth expectations being raised while non-farm employment data remains weak [1] - The Federal Reserve is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, planning to pause rate cuts in the short term, which further amplifies market volatility due to policy uncertainty [1] - Following the dollar's decline, non-U.S. currencies have strengthened, gold prices have surged, and U.S. Treasury yields have slightly decreased, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - In the short term, the dollar index needs to be monitored closely for key moving average support levels, with potential for further declines if these are breached [2] - The long-term outlook for the dollar index will hinge on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the policy direction of the new chairperson, with predictions suggesting a "steady then weak" trend for the year [2] - There are three major risk variables to watch: potential inflation resurgence, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market turbulence, which could alter the rate-cutting path and lead to significant adjustments in the dollar index and global market volatility [2]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a steady stance on monetary policy, keeping key interest rates unchanged: deposit facility rate at 2.00%, main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending rate at 2.40% until June 2025 [1] - The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that current interest rates are at an "appropriate level," with recent economic data aligning with the bank's forecasts [1] - Eurozone inflation is projected to be 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and rebound to 2.0% in 2028, indicating effective control over inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Eurozone economic growth is expected to be 1.4% in 2025, higher than previous forecasts, followed by a slowdown to 1.2% in 2026, and a rebound to 1.4% in 2027-2028, with domestic demand as the main growth driver [1] - Consumer expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months have weakened to -1.3%, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding short-term economic prospects [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact - Ongoing geopolitical events, such as the Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, are critical variables affecting the Eurozone economy, potentially suppressing corporate investment and increasing household savings [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the ECB may lead to a stronger euro, which could weaken the Eurozone's export competitiveness [2] Group 4: Consumer Expectations - Consumer expectations for nominal income growth remain stable at 1.2%, while consumption growth expectations have slightly decreased to 3.4%, with lower-income groups showing higher consumption expectations than higher-income groups [3] - The unemployment rate expectation for the next 12 months has slightly decreased to 10.9%, indicating a stable labor market that supports economic recovery [3] - Expectations for rising housing prices and mortgage rates have declined, which may dampen activity in the real estate market and become a potential drag on consumption and investment [3]

一、同意中国人寿财产保险股份有限公司蒲江县支公司将营业场所变更为：四川省成都市蒲江县鹤山街 道三湖大道54号1栋2层附201-203号。 二、中国人寿财产保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 未尽事项按金融监管总局有关规定办理。 中国人寿 中国人寿 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 49.39 0.58 1.19% 2.36% 1.58% 0.78% 0.00% 0.78% 1.58% 2.36% 47.66 48.04 48.43 48.81 49.19 49.58 49.96 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 16万 32万 48万 2026年1月5日，四川金融监管局发布批复称，《关于中国人寿（601628）财产保险股份有限公司蒲江县 支公司变更营业场所的请示》(国寿财险川发〔2025〕97号)收悉。经审核，现批复如下： ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of polypropylene monthly average price futures with cash settlement enhances risk management tools for the industry by aligning with the common pricing practices in spot trade [1] Group 1: Cash Settlement Mechanism - Cash settlement means that upon contract expiration, the exchange completes profit and loss settlement through cash transfer rather than physical delivery of goods [1] - The settlement price for polypropylene monthly average price futures is the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures for all trading days in the month prior to the contract month [1] Group 2: Market Functionality - The monthly average price futures financialize the commonly used "monthly average" pricing benchmark in spot trade, filling a gap in the domestic futures market regarding average price management [1] - Plastic processing, modification, and trading companies can lock in or hedge against the average procurement costs of raw materials for future months, mitigating the impact of price volatility on production profits [1] - Upstream refining companies can sell the average price in advance, stabilizing their monthly sales revenue [1] Group 3: Liquidity and Participation - The cash settlement mechanism ensures contract liquidity by eliminating warehouse receipt pressure and delivery default risks, encouraging more financial institutions and quantitative funds to participate [1] - Increased participation enhances the depth and breadth of price discovery in the market [1]

周一亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度涨0.57%至4535.26美元/盎司，距12月26日历史高点4549.69美 元仅一步之遥，主因美伊地缘政治紧张急剧升级。特朗普政府对伊朗抗议活动强硬表态，称"子弹上 膛，随时待发"，计划讨论军事打击等选项，点燃市场避险情绪。美伊对峙升级信号频现：特朗普周二 将听取对伊全面选项简报，伊朗威胁攻击美中东基地，针锋相对加剧"擦枪走火"风险，资金撤离风险资 产转向黄金。此外，伊朗抗议持续两周致超500人死亡，叠加经济崩溃、互联网封锁，地缘风险溢价抬 升；美国周六对叙IS目标打击，进一步推升避险需求，支撑金价短期强势。 摘要周一亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度涨0.57%至4535.26美元/盎司，距12月26日历史高点 4549.69美元仅一步之遥，主因美伊地缘政治紧张急剧升级。 ...

Group 1 - London gold is currently trading above $4575.77, with a reported price of $4582.59 per ounce, reflecting a 1.60% increase, and has seen a high of $4600.33 and a low of $4508.56 during the session [1] - Bill Ackman, a prominent hedge fund manager, believes that the notion of the U.S. returning to a 2% inflation rate is "nonsense," predicting that the Federal Reserve will adjust its inflation target to a range of 2.5% to 3% [1] - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations, no longer anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, and now expects a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027 [2] Group 2 - The daily moving average system for London gold maintains a steady upward trend, with a clear bullish arrangement in the short term, indicating strong technical indicators [3] - The price has found solid support at $4270 after breaking through high levels, suggesting a strong upward momentum and potential for further increases in the coming days [3] - Current price movements are completing a new ascending wedge pattern, indicating that prices may rise to higher levels by 2026 [4]

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 97653 | 0 | 特朗普再次威胁干涉伊朗，称准备提供"帮助"。伊朗议会议长警告美国，若遭攻击必将还击，目标包括 以色列本土及美军基地等。美媒：特朗普听取对伊打击方案的简报，但尚未作出最终决定，政府正考虑 多个干涉伊朗方案；特朗普将于周二讨论针对伊朗的潜在措施。 美国12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，预期6万人，美国10月和11月非农就业人数合计下修7.6万 人，12月失业率录得4.4%，预期4.5%。白宫证实，特朗普的社交媒体账户无意中泄露了汇总的就业数 据，正在审查有关经济数据发布的规程。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周一（1月12日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计97653千克，今日仓单 较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周一（1月12日）黄金期货开盘价1004.48元/克，截至目前最高1031.30元/克， 最低1003.38元/克。截止发稿报1026.28元/克，涨幅2.57%，成交量为238327手，持仓为116450手，日持 仓减少2836手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) ...

【宏观消息】 【黄金期货行情表现】 1月12日，沪金主力暂报1026.28元/克，涨幅2.57%，今日沪金主力开盘价1004.48元/克，截至目前最高 1031.30元/克，最低1003.38元/克。 美国财长贝森特明确表示，希望降低利率，称利率是驱动未来经济增长的关键因素。美联储理事米兰表 示，预计在2026年降息约150个基点。此举有望创造约一百万个就业岗位，同时不会引发通货膨胀 【机构观点】 上周金价震荡上行，沪金再度站上1000元关口，纽约金站上4500美元关口。短期宏观氛围有所冷却，前 期涨幅较好的资产普遍回落，这一定程度上使黄金的避险需求上升，给予金价支撑。技术上，可持续关 注1000元关口支撑，以及纽约金4500美元支撑。 美国2025年12月ISM制造业指数从48.2小幅下降至47.9，已连续10个月低于50，并创下自2024年10月以 来新低。新订单已连续第四个月收缩，出口订单仍然疲弱。就业人数连续第11个月下降。美国2025年12 月ISM服务业PMI指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下自2024年9月 以来的最大水平。价格上涨速度降至九个月来的最慢 ...

欧元区通胀放缓，进一步降息预期不强，欧美利差预期收缩。 特朗普总统发动对委内瑞拉大规模军事行动、重启格陵兰岛获取计划、提高美国2027财年军费等，带来 地缘局势紧张，冲击西方阵营内部团结，短期避险情绪推高美元，中期则加速去美元化。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月12日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1026.28 | 2.57% | 238327 | 116450 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月12日上海黄金现货价格报价1023.32元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1026.28元/克）贴水 2.96元/克。 美国制造业前景疲软依旧，订单不足，就业继续萎缩，但服务业超预期扩张，国内外订单大增，就业重 新扩张；就业人数弱增长，岗位空缺数下降，失业者重返劳动力市场难度较大，但失业率意外下降，形 成数据上的背离，降息预期不增反减；美国财长贝森特希望降低利率，表示利率是驱动未来经济增长的 关键因素。 因此短期来看美联储降息预期不强、美国经济增长向好、欧美关 ...