Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is currently experiencing record highs despite the government shutdown, indicating investor confidence in corporate earnings and macroeconomic trends over political uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have averaged 8 days, with the stock market showing positive returns one month and three months post-shutdown [2][4]. - Current market predictions suggest a 63% probability that the shutdown will last over 10 days, and a 40% chance it will extend beyond 15 days [4]. - The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 34 days, during which the S&P 500 rose by 10%, highlighting that macroeconomic factors can outweigh short-term political disruptions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors are increasingly anticipating two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut this month [5]. - The average decline in the stock market during government shutdowns is only 1.6%, with the most significant drop being 6.1% during a 1979 shutdown [5]. - The current bullish trend in the stock market at the onset of the shutdown suggests that it is likely to continue rising, as historical patterns indicate that strong market momentum can persist despite political uncertainties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

Group 1 - Russian President Putin stated that his forces are advancing across Ukraine and that all NATO countries are now openly confronting Moscow [1] - Putin criticized European leaders for their rhetoric and claimed that they are inciting war with Russia, asserting that the idea of Russia attacking NATO is absurd [1][2] - Reports indicate that the White House has authorized intelligence support for strikes on long-range targets within Ukraine [1] Group 2 - Putin emphasized that Russia will respond to perceived threats from NATO, particularly in light of Germany's military ambitions [2] - He expressed a willingness to restore comprehensive relations with the United States, acknowledging that the current U.S. administration is driven by its own interests [2] - The Russian military claims to have control over nearly 100% of the Luhansk region and maintains strategic advantages in other areas [3] Group 3 - Russia is reportedly preparing countermeasures in response to potential EU actions against Russian central bank assets, including the seizure of foreign assets within Russia [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is preparing to announce a list of federal agencies to be cut, with the announcement expected as early as this weekend [1] - President Trump is actively involved in discussions regarding the cuts, meeting multiple times daily with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought [1] - The cuts are part of a broader initiative known as "Project 2025," aimed at fundamentally reducing the size of the federal government [1] Group 2 - Approximately 2 million federal employees have had their pay suspended, with around 750,000 ordered not to work, while others, such as military personnel, are required to work without pay [3] - The current government shutdown is the 15th since 1981 and has led to the suspension of various activities, including scientific research and economic data reporting [2] - The ongoing budget standoff has frozen about $1.7 trillion in agency operating funds, which constitutes roughly a quarter of annual federal spending [2] Group 3 - Trump is using the threat of job cuts to pressure opponents, which Democrats argue amounts to hostage-taking and infringes on Congress's constitutional authority over federal spending [4] - Republican leaders show little concern over the shutdown, believing that the current administration can prioritize spending as it sees fit if Congress fails to pass funding bills [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of a key labor market report, raising concerns about the reliability of official economic statistics from the Trump era [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release its monthly data as scheduled, leaving global markets and the Federal Reserve without crucial signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy [1] - The shutdown has intensified the chaos at the BLS, which has faced decades of funding cuts that hinder data collection, and the recent firing of its director after a poor employment report [1] Group 2 - In the absence of official data, the Federal Reserve is relying on alternative sources, including the "Beige Book," which compiles economic conditions through interviews and surveys [2] - The latest Beige Book indicated a weak economic picture, with consumer spending flat to declining and layoffs increasing [2] - Private data providers are gaining attention, with ADP reporting a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [2] Group 3 - Economists suggest that a "stagnant" labor market is contributing to the poor employment data, with layoffs near historical lows and resignation rates at their lowest since the beginning of the year [3] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and immigration policies has led to a lack of fluidity in the job market, raising concerns among some economists [3] - Investors are also examining data from LinkedIn and Indeed for more clarity on the labor market [3] Group 4 - Indeed's daily job postings index, which tracks recruitment ads on one of the largest job sites, indicates stagnation, with job postings in September falling to the lowest level since February 2021 [4] - The labor market may appear calm on the surface, but underlying it is a lack of vitality, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring [4]

Group 1 - Senator Elizabeth Warren is urging the Trump administration to release the September employment report, which is crucial for economic data, especially given the Federal Reserve's concerns about a weak job market and rising unemployment rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of labor data for September, and it is likely ready for release [1][2] - The White House has attributed the government shutdown to Democrats, claiming it creates an "information vacuum" that hinders decision-making for investors, economists, and Federal Reserve officials [2][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, including the BLS's non-farm payroll report and inflation reports, which are critical for economic assessments [1][3] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has also been asked to suspend operations, affecting the scheduled release of trade data and GDP figures [3] - The shutdown may force investors and Federal Reserve officials to rely on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicated a surprising drop in private sector employment, suggesting ongoing weakness in the job market [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is reportedly prepared to release non-farm payroll data despite the government shutdown, with Senator Warren urging for timely publication [9] - Federal Reserve's Logan emphasizes the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, warning against excessive loosening of policies [9][10] - The U.S. government is expected to impact GDP due to the ongoing shutdown, with potential layoffs numbering in the thousands [9] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.61%, with significant gains in semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, including a 12.7% rise in SMIC [5][11] - The U.S. will provide intelligence to Ukraine for targeting missile sites within Russia, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Tesla reported a record Q3 vehicle delivery of 497,000 units, exceeding market expectations, although production saw a decline [14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown and weak private sector employment data have increased traders' bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices reached a peak of $3,890 before declining, while silver hit $48 per ounce, marking the highest level since May 2011, before also retreating [1]. - Traders are increasingly betting on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year due to the ongoing weak labor market [5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders believe there is nearly a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that gold remains in a bullish trend, with support at $3,852 and potential targets at $3,914 and $3,934 if it breaks the resistance at $3,898 [3]. - The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is at 89-90, indicating an overbought condition, which may lead to profit-taking if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Trust reported a 0.59% increase in holdings, reaching 1,018.89 tons, the highest level since July 2022 [5]. - September saw the highest monthly net inflow into gold ETFs in three years, with Chinese investors also increasing their holdings in popular gold ETFs [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by the end of 2026 due to increased speculative positions and higher-than-expected ETF holdings [5].

这位内阁官员是在政府停摆的第二天发表上述言论的。目前，两党尚未就短期拨款法案达成一致，而这 是确保政府支出和各项运作得以持续的关键。 美国经济在年初的低迷期过后，过去两个季度的增长态势呈上升轨迹。 美国第二季度GDP按年率计算增长3.8%，据亚特兰大联储的追踪数据显示，在刚刚结束的第三季度， 美国GDP有望保持同等增速。 尽管以往的政府停摆对经济增长影响甚微，但此次若停摆时间延长，则可能造成一定损害。尤其是如果 美国总统特朗普执意推进其计划，将此次约75万名受影响的联邦员工中的相当一部分永久性解雇，那么 后果不堪设想。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周四在CNBC的《财经早报》节目中表示，美国政府停摆 可能会损害美国的经济增长。 贝森特在直播采访中称："让政府停摆、然后拉低国内生产总值（GPD），这并非合理的商讨方式。我 们可能会看到GPD受挫、经济增长受阻，美国劳动者也会受到冲击。" 当被问及特朗普是否在考虑这一举措时，贝森特称这只是一个"噱头"。 贝森特在谈及参议院和众议院的民主党领袖时表示："参议员查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）和众议员哈 基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem ...

Group 1 - The European Commission is proposing to reduce steel import quotas by nearly half and increase tariffs on over-quota imports to 50% to align with the tariff policies of the US and Canada [2][4] - The new measures are part of a steel industry plan to be announced on October 7, which aims to replace the current temporary protection mechanism that is set to expire in mid-2026 [3] - The current import quotas are 26% higher than initial levels, while market demand is declining, prompting the steel industry to push for these changes [3] Group 2 - The proposed tariff increase will align the EU with the US and Canada, although the US has not set import quotas [4] - The OECD predicts that global steel overcapacity will reach 721 million tons by 2027, and the EU and its Western allies are attempting to curb this overcapacity [4] - The EU is also considering protective measures for aluminum products and the imposition of export taxes on scrap metal [4]