Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]

Group 1: Domestic Market Trends - The domestic vegetable oil market shows significant differentiation, with palm oil reaching new highs, the main contract rising by 0.87% to refresh its peak, leading the oilseed sector [1] - Soybean oil steadily increased, with the main contract up by 0.50%, hitting a three-week high [1] - Canola oil experienced weak fluctuations, impacted by expectations of the China-Australia trade agreement, dropping to a two-week low before narrowing its decline to 0.14% due to short positions being reduced at the close [1] Group 2: Renewable Fuel Credits and Policies - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported an increase in renewable fuel blending credits for June, with ethanol (D6) credits at approximately 1.25 billion gallons, up from 1.22 billion gallons in May [3] - Biodiesel (D4) credits rose from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June, indicating increased activity in the fuel market, which is beneficial for demand for agricultural by-products [3] - Indonesia is exploring increasing biodiesel blending to 50% (B50), with research expected to be completed by the end of the year, although implementation by 2026 remains uncertain [3] Group 3: Global Palm Oil Price Outlook - Afrinvest's latest report predicts a significant rise in global palm oil prices, potentially reaching $1,200 per ton by the end of 2025, a 33% increase from the current price of $900 per ton [5] - The price increase is attributed to tightening supplies from major producers Indonesia and Malaysia, along with rising global demand driven by biofuel policies [5] - Geopolitical tensions have led to reduced sunflower oil supplies, further exacerbating the upward price trend [5] Group 4: Short-term Market Outlook - CICC Wealth Futures indicates that palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to declining exports, with domestic market momentum decreasing, although a strong oscillation state remains possible [7] - High domestic soybean crushing volumes and rising soybean oil inventories do not support excessive price increases for soybean oil [7] - The market for canola oil remains limited due to improved supply prospects following a near agreement on canola imports between China and Australia [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, driven by strong market sentiment and policy expectations in the photovoltaic industry, has led to a record high of 45,000 yuan/ton, marking a 7.49% increase in the main contract for 2508 [1] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant increase in price support across its supply chain, with the silicon wafer sector leveraging low inventory strategies to propose price hikes while controlling shipments [2] - Recent policy announcements have bolstered market expectations, contributing to a favorable environment for polysilicon prices, which are being driven by both capital inflow and market sentiment [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite the recent price increase, the fundamental support for polysilicon remains weak, with supply and demand not showing substantial improvement. Short-term price movements are expected to be modestly upward as downstream silicon wafer companies may reduce production due to high raw material costs [3] - The recent halt in the downward trend of silicon wafer prices is attributed to rising polysilicon prices and improved supply-demand dynamics within the silicon wafer sector [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently characterized by significant divergence and limited transmission of price movements, with a focus on maintaining positions at the upper range of price fluctuations. The photovoltaic supply chain's price support is increasing, but terminal demand has not yet shown signs of recovery [4] - The recent increase in polysilicon prices has provided many manufacturers with opportunities to return to profitability, although this is not expected to be a consistent trend. Most manufacturers are likely to initiate new hedging strategies as polysilicon inventories remain high [5] - The overall demand for polysilicon is still under considerable pressure, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to weak terminal demand forecasts [5]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate main contract prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 69,980 yuan/ton before closing at 67,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - Analysts believe that supply-side disturbances and a continuous decrease in exchange warehouse receipts are the main factors driving recent price increases, while the overall supply remains sufficient [1] - Despite being a traditional off-season for demand, downstream orders are still relatively stable, indicating a less pronounced seasonal effect [1] Group 2 - Cangge Mining announced a halt in lithium resource development activities, affecting a production line with a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the overall impact on the domestic lithium carbonate market supply is limited [2] - Domestic lithium carbonate production plans for July are projected to be 79,300 tons, a 7.1% increase month-on-month, with high operating rates maintained in Jiangxi and stable output in Qinghai [2] - Some manufacturers are experiencing increased orders and production enthusiasm, despite planned maintenance on certain spodumene production lines [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is significantly driven by disturbances at the mining end, with lithium prices remaining strong, although downstream material manufacturers show little intention to actively replenish stocks [3] - The recent price increases are primarily driven by supply-side disturbances, with limited actual impact on the fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [3] - Continuous reduction in warehouse receipts and rising lithium ore prices, combined with various market news disturbances, are stimulating price increases, while long-term hedging pressures may arise [3]

日本政府周四公布的数据显示，今年上半年，日本陷入了2.2万亿日元的贸易逆差。这主要是因为美国 总统特朗普的关税政策对日本出口造成了冲击。 上个月，日本的出口额同比下降0.5%，此前5月份已下降1.7%。其中，日本对美国的出口在6月份下降 了11%，汽车出口更是暴跌26.7%。此前，美国已于今年4月对汽车进口加征了25%的关税。 与此同时，日本对中国的出口也下降了近5%。对墨西哥的出口下降了近20%，墨西哥是日本汽车制造 商在北美的重要汽车组装中心。特朗普已将上调进口关税的实施日期推迟至8月1日，以便为谈判争取时 间，但到目前为止，双方尚未达成任何协议。 上个月，日本出口总额接近9.2万亿日元，这是连续第二个月出现下滑。随着进口小幅增长0.2%，当月 贸易顺差为1530亿日元，而5月份则出现了6376亿日元的贸易逆差。 今年上半年，日本出口总额达到53.4万亿日元，增长3.6%；进口总额为55.6万亿日元，增长1.3%。 日本和美国一直在进行贸易谈判，日本官员强调日本是美国的重要盟友。海关数据显示，2024年日本近 五分之一的出口流向美国，因此达成一项贸易协议对日本经济至关重要。 特朗普政府一直关注大米，这个领 ...

Group 1 - The EU is preparing a list of potential tariffs and export control measures against the US services sector as a retaliatory action following failed trade negotiations [2][3] - The EU Commission is compiling this list in response to President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1 [3] - The proposed measures will target not only US tech companies but also include additional actions beyond the existing proposal against $720 billion worth of US imports, which includes tariffs on Boeing aircraft, cars, and bourbon whiskey [3] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that if the average tariff rate on EU goods reaches 35%, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, it could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [4] - This reduction could deplete much of the already limited growth in the Eurozone and may lead the European Central Bank to further lower its deposit rate from the current 2% [4] - A previous estimate from the German Economic Institute suggested that tariffs of 20% to 50% could result in economic losses exceeding €200 billion for Germany by 2028 [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily influenced by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is considered a more accurate measure of inflation compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is particularly favored by the Federal Reserve as it is seen as the best predictor of future inflation [1] - Economists predict that the core PCE report to be released on July 31 will show an increase of 0.2% to 0.3%, which may not be low enough to convince most Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - The overall PCE inflation rate is also expected to rise by approximately 0.3%, with the annual increase potentially reaching 2.6% in June, up from 2.3% the previous month and 2.1% after the pandemic low [3] - The rising inflation trend is partially attributed to the tariff policies of the Trump administration [3] - Despite pressure from the White House, most Federal Reserve voting members are inclined to maintain current interest rates, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year if inflation threats diminish and the job market shows signs of weakness [3]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

Group 1 - Trump announced plans to increase tariffs on trade partners starting August 1 to address the long-standing trade deficit issue in the U.S. [1] - The letters sent to countries like Japan and South Korea emphasized the need to eliminate trade deficits, which Trump views as a significant threat to U.S. economic and national security [1] - Analysts criticize Trump's focus on merchandise trade deficits while neglecting the importance of the service sector, which employs three-quarters of the U.S. workforce [1] Group 2 - Experts warn that the U.S. cannot produce all goods domestically, highlighting the reliance on imports for products like coffee and bananas [2] - Some independent analysts support Trump's trade policies but caution against imposing tariffs on certain essential goods [2] - Predictions suggest that while Trump may reduce deficits with some countries, new deficits will likely emerge elsewhere, indicating a complex trade landscape [2]

Group 1: Market Outlook and Predictions - Citigroup sets a year-end target of 25,000 points for the Hang Seng Index, with a mid-2024 target of 26,000 points, and a year-end target of 4,200 points for the CSI 300 Index [1] - Bank of America predicts no interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before next year, with a projected economic growth rate of approximately 1.5% by year-end [2] - UBS expects the euro to rise to 1.23 against the dollar by June 2026, up from a previous forecast of 1.20 [3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Citigroup upgrades the consumer sector from neutral to overweight, anticipating potential government stimulus, while downgrades the transportation sector to neutral due to global freight volume risks [1] - Fitch Ratings highlights that Japan's fiscal policy poses a significant risk to its credit rating, with increasing calls for large-scale fiscal spending and tax cuts [4] - ING notes that excessive short positions in the dollar may have led to a slight rebound after the CPI data release, but expects the dollar to continue rising [5] Group 3: Industry Trends and Opportunities - CICC reports that the chemical industry is at a low point in profitability and valuation, with potential positive changes expected due to declining capital investment and policy support [7] - CITIC Securities identifies opportunities in the domestic internet sector related to the potential resumption of H20 sales by Nvidia, which may boost capital expenditure [8] - CITIC Securities also recommends focusing on RWA issuance, financial IT, and cross-border payment sectors as stablecoin legalization expands the industry [9] Group 4: Economic and Urban Development - Galaxy Securities indicates that urban development in China is shifting towards quality improvement and efficiency in existing stock, presenting investment opportunities in related sectors [13] - The securities sector is expected to see an upturn due to supportive government policies and improved market conditions, making it a favorable time for investment [14]