沙特与阿联酋的紧张关系已于去年12月公开化，如今该国似乎已准备好接手。苏丹国有矿产资源公司 （Sudanese Mineral Resources Co.）发言人透露，沙特私营企业沙特黄金精炼公司（Saudi Gold Refinery Co.）本周告知苏丹政府，其已准备好"立即开始收购黄金"。 目前关于交易时间及出口规模尚未披露细节，沙特政府与沙特黄金精炼公司的发言人也未回应邮件问 询。 此举意味着这两个阿拉伯世界最大经济体之间的争端，可能开辟新的商业战线。上月沙特给阿联酋军队 24小时撤离也门的最后通牒后，已迅速采取行动削弱这个东部邻国的广泛影响力，包括在非洲之角地区 的布局。 据彭博社本周报道，尽管双方尚未采取正式外交或商业制裁措施，但在两国均有业务的部分企业已开始 制定应急计划，以确保局势进一步升级时业务能持续开展。 沙特与苏丹军队关系密切，自2023年4月以来，苏丹军队一直在与准军事组织快速支援部队（RSF）交 战，这场内战据信已造成数十万人死亡。 苏丹军方于去年6月正式与阿联酋断交，指控其向快速支援部队提供武器——阿联酋对此一再否认。此 后双方部分贸易被迫中断，包括苏丹的石油出口，但黄金仍在流向阿 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 伊斯坦布尔100指数有望创下29年来最佳的1月表现 音频由扣子空间生成 受益于新兴市场乐观情绪蔓延及自身估值优势，外国投资者重新涌入土耳其股市，推动该国股市有望创下1997年以来的最佳1月表现。 以美元计价，伊斯坦布尔100指数1月至今已上涨19%，为1997年以来同期最佳表现。即便经历本轮上涨，以预期市盈率衡量，土耳其股市相较于其他 新兴市场股票仍存在显著估值折让。 土耳其股市的交易价格较新兴市场同类股票低约70% 去年，土耳其总统雷杰普・塔伊普・埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）对政治对手的打压令投资者恐慌，导致土耳其资产在新兴市场期待已久的反 弹行情中错失良机。如今，在美元走弱以及投资者寻求分散美国资产配置的推动下，土耳其股市正逐步缩小与其他新兴市场的差距。 阿塔投资管理公司首席执行官巴图汉・奥兹沙欣（Batuhan Ozsahin）表示："在新兴市场需求旺盛的背景下，土耳其股市正迎头赶上，美元贬值交易 仍在强劲持续。" 土耳其央行数据显示，自去年12月初至今年1月16日，该国股市已吸引13.6亿美元的外资流入。贝莱德前沿市场投资信托基金目前将土耳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tether's increasing demand for physical gold is becoming a significant force in the precious metals market, although its ability to independently influence gold prices remains limited [1]. Group 1: Tether's Gold Allocation Strategy - Tether plans to increase its gold allocation in its investment portfolio from approximately 7% to between 10% and 15% [1]. - If implemented, this adjustment could lead to an additional multi-billion dollar scale of gold purchases, given Tether's current stablecoin circulation of about $186 billion [1]. Group 2: Current Gold Holdings - Tether currently holds approximately 130 to 140 tons of physical gold, valued at around $23 to $24 billion [3]. - The gold allocation in Tether's overall assets has reached 12% to 13% after significant purchases over the past year [3]. Group 3: Market Mechanism and Impact - Tether's gold purchases primarily affect the demand side, as the short-term supply of gold is inelastic [5]. - The annual global gold production is about 3,500 to 3,600 tons, with recycled gold supply around 1,200 to 1,500 tons, making it difficult to significantly increase output in response to sudden demand spikes [5]. Group 4: Marginal Impact on Gold Prices - Tether's gold demand, estimated at 50 to 100 tons annually, accounts for about 1% to 2% of global annual supply, which is insufficient to dominate the market but can create marginal effects [7]. - The immediate impact of Tether's purchases is a tightening of physical gold liquidity, which may narrow bid-ask spreads and make gold prices more sensitive to incremental buyers [7]. Group 5: Price Support and Market Sentiment - Tether's weekly gold purchases of 1 to 2 tons may support gold prices by approximately 1% to 3% in the short term, particularly in contexts of a weakening dollar or rising geopolitical risks [8]. - Tether's positioning of gold as a "central bank-level reserve asset" resonates with market sentiments, especially as central banks have been increasing their gold purchases [9]. Group 6: Limitations of Tether's Influence - Despite Tether's significant role, its gold accumulation will not alter the long-term supply curve of gold, and its purchasing power cannot match that of sovereign buyers and ETFs [9]. - Macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies, dollar strength, and global risk sentiment remain the primary drivers of gold price movements [9]. Group 7: Conclusion - Tether's gold purchasing actions add structural demand support to the gold market, tightening the availability of physical gold and marginally supporting prices [10]. - Ultimately, Tether acts as a "stabilizer" in the market rather than a "game changer," reinforcing an already bullish market backdrop without triggering significant price surges on its own [11].

美元的剧烈波动正开始向美国国债市场传导，这一信号警示，持续走弱的美元或将成为推高市场利率的潜在因素。 在美国周二尾盘及周三的交易中，美元汇率的波动均引发了国债市场的明显反应，这与前一周的市场表现形成鲜明对比——此前彭博美元指数大跌超 2.5%，创近三年新低，国债市场却对此无动于衷。 周二尾盘，因美国总统特朗普表态对美元贬值并不担忧，美元汇率大幅下挫，此次贬值主要针对日元；而周三美国财政部长贝森特否认美方为提振日元采取 干预行动后，美元汇率短线反弹，但随后再度走弱。 所谓的"货币贬值交易"卷土重来，周三彭博美元指数下跌0.3%，而黄金、白银等贵金属则延续了创纪录的涨势。双线资本首席执行官杰弗里・冈拉克 （Jeffrey Gundlach）在接受CNBC采访时表示，美元已有一段时间不再扮演避险货币的角色，因为投资者更青睐黄金、白银这类实体避险资产。 美国国债全品种走弱，长期品种领跌，30年期美债收益率攀升3个基点至4.89%。 美元走弱之际，长期美债收益率大幅攀升，而在其短暂反弹时，长期美债收益率则应声回落。这一走势反映出，货币贬值最终可能引发通胀上行，也对特朗 普政府宣称的致力于降低借贷成本的主张形成了隐性反驳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to announce its Q1 FY2026 earnings, with Wall Street expecting revenue of $138.4 billion and earnings per share of $2.68, while the focus will be on its AI strategy [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect Apple's earnings to align with market consensus, with a revenue forecast of $138.4 billion and earnings per share of $2.68 [1] - The stock price has seen a 10% increase over the past year, underperforming the market and some of its peers [1] Group 2: AI Strategy - Apple has significantly lower capital expenditure on AI infrastructure compared to other tech giants, opting to collaborate with established AI firms, recently partnering with Google's Gemini to enhance Siri [1] - Dan Ives from Wedbush highlights the importance of Apple's AI strategy, suggesting that the stock could see a significant increase if investors start assigning an "AI premium" to it, potentially adding $75 to $100 per share in value [2] - Analysts believe that the collaboration with Google Gemini and the upcoming Siri upgrade could position Apple favorably in the AI landscape [2] Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Michael Ng from Goldman Sachs sees the current stock price as a buying opportunity, with a target price of $320 per share, indicating a potential upside of about 25% [2] - Erik Woodring from Morgan Stanley anticipates a short-term dip in stock performance post-earnings due to potential disappointment in iPhone sales, but maintains a long-term target price of $315 per share, citing future innovations [3] - UBS expresses concern over rising memory costs impacting profit margins, despite strong iPhone sales expectations [4] - Chris Brigati from SWBC notes that investors may scrutinize Apple's AI strategy more closely, suggesting that the company faces high expectations and may struggle to meet them [4]

鲁比奥表示，与委内瑞拉领导人的沟通"非常尊重且富有成效"，并补充说他预计美国很快就能在该国重 新建立外交存在。美国驻加拉加斯大使馆自2019年以来一直处于关闭状态，但国务院最近几周已派遣官 员开始为重新开放做准备。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国国务卿鲁比奥表示，委内瑞拉新领导层正朝着与华盛顿建立更紧密关系的方向迈进，因此目前没有 必要采取进一步的军事行动。这是自本月委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被强行控制以来，鲁比奥周三首次公开面 对立法者的质询。 美国总统特朗普已下令其政府与德尔西·罗德里格斯（Delcy Rodriguez）合作。罗德里格斯是马杜罗的 盟友，在马杜罗被美军强行控制后宣誓就任临时总统，但特朗普此前曾警告，如果她的政府不遵守美国 的要求，将采取进一步的军事行动。 曾任佛罗里达州参议员及参议院外交关系委员会成员的鲁比奥，在座无虚席的参议院听证会上表示，虽 然特朗普不会排除任何选项，但"我们要么没摆出那个架势，也不打算或预期必须在委内瑞拉采取任何 军事行动"，这表明美国政府对罗德里格斯表示满意。 "你在委内瑞拉唯一能看到的军事存在将是我们大使馆的海军陆战队卫兵。这是我们的目标 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 有"美联储传声筒"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos最新撰文指出，自去年夏天以来，美联储主席 鲍威尔周四已是第四次拒绝透露，在5月15日主席任期结束后，他是否会继续留在美联储理事会。 鲍威尔在美联储最新会议后的新闻发布会上说道，"再说一次，我不想谈论这个问题。" 这个问题答案从未改变，而这正是关键所在。 鲍威尔之所以有这个选项，是因为美联储治理结构的一个特殊之处。主席职位需经过两次确认：一个是 为期四年的主席任期，另一个是为期14年的理事任期。大多数人在主席任期结束时会离开，但这并非强 制。鲍威尔的理事席位要到2028年才到期。 Timiraos指出，鲍威尔的这一决定，是他面对花费数月时间试图向美联储施压的政府时，手中握有的最 后一张、也是唯一一张底牌。本月早些时候送达央行的大陪审团传票，只会让他更有理由不亮出这张 牌。 目前，特朗普在理事会中只有一个预定的空缺：米兰目前占据的席位，其任期将于本周六届满。米兰可 以作为留任者继续任职，直到继任者得到确认，但这个席位已经名花有主，即专门用来安置新主席。 如果鲍威尔遵循传统于5月15日离开理事会 ...

在美国的斡旋下，俄罗斯和乌克兰于上周五和周六就可能的和平解决方案进行了讨论。 乌克兰在2022年俄乌冲突爆发后不久便申请加入欧盟，并一直推动加速一体化进程，将其视为一种安全 机制。 "乌克兰加入欧盟不仅对我们，而且对整个欧洲来说都是关键的安全保障之一，"乌克兰总统泽连斯基在 与奥地利总理斯托克近期交谈后，在社交媒体上写道。 "这就是为什么我们谈论一个具体的日期——2027年，并且我们指望合作伙伴支持我们的立场，"他补充 道。 对于美俄乌三方谈判，当地时间1月28日，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示，三方就乌克兰问题的谈判仍在推进 中，但在顿涅茨克的归属问题上仍存在分歧，"这一问题是当前谈判中为数不多的关键障碍之一"。 德国总理默茨周三排除了将2027年作为乌克兰加入欧盟目标日期的可能性。 默茨在柏林举行的新闻发布会上表示："我们已经告诉美国人，'乌克兰在2027年1月1日入盟是绝无可能 的，这不可能。所有希望在日后加入欧盟的成员，包括乌克兰，都必须满足哥本哈根标准。'" 哥本哈根标准制定于1993年，是指一个国家加入欧盟必须满足的基本政治、经济和立法条件。这些标准 要求具备稳定的民主制度、运作良好的市场经济以及适应欧盟法 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the US stock market have shifted their focus from trade-related fears to the strong performance of the US economy, leading to a more confident market outlook [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached historical highs, touching the 7000-point mark, while the volatility index (VIX) dropped to its lowest level in five years, indicating reduced market anxiety [1] - Following the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, the S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 10.8% within two days, nearly entering a bear market, but recovered all losses by May 2 [2] - The S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 6978.60 points after Trump indicated no new tariffs on Europe, despite previous threats to increase tariffs on South Korea and Canada [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Market participants believe that tariffs are primarily used as negotiation tools, and the actual measures taken by the Trump administration will not be as aggressive as initially feared [3] - The ongoing strong performance of the US economy is perceived as more significant than the headlines surrounding tariffs, with investors confident in the economy's ability to absorb the impacts of tariffs [3] - Predictions suggest that the Supreme Court may rule against the tariff policies, leading to potential refunds, but uncertainty remains regarding the government's response [3] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Context - The Supreme Court is expected to make a ruling on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for imposing tariffs, with potential implications for future tariff policies [4] - The government may utilize the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable, allowing for a temporary 15% tariff on all trading partners [4][5] - Implementing permanent tariffs under non-emergency powers may be more challenging and subject to legal challenges, although the market remains reassured that extreme measures will eventually be rolled back [5]

宏观与产业形成共振，铜的战略价值持续提升。全球地缘政治冲突加剧，铜作为关键矿产的战略属性凸 显，各国对资源的掌控力度持续加强。美元信用削弱趋势下，铜与贵金属的联动性增强，在避险情绪与 通胀预期的双重作用下，资金对铜的配置需求提升。中长期来看，AI数据中心、新能源汽车、储能等 新兴领域快速发展，将持续打开铜的需求天花板，而供给端的刚性约束难以短期缓解，供需紧平衡格局 将长期维持，铜价中枢有望逐步上移。 据新华社报道，国际黄金期货价格和现货价格29日再创新高，盘中突破每盎司5500美元。 近期工业金属板块表现亮眼，资金关注度持续提升。作为工业金属的核心品种，铜正从传统工业金属升 级为战略资产，这会如何定义其未来的价值？请看机构最新研判。 近期，有色板块中铜品种表现亮眼，资金关注度显著提升。这轮行情的核心支撑，主要来自供需两端的 共振。供给端，全球铜矿资本开支不足，矿端扰动频发，铜精矿供需格局由紧平衡转向短缺；需求端， 国内经济复苏带动下游补库，海外降息周期打开流动性宽松空间，铜的金融属性与商品属性形成正向循 环。 具体来看，供给端约束持续强化，成为铜价的核心支撑。全球铜矿长期资本开支不足，叠加矿山品位下 降、地缘 ...