2022年，为应对俄乌冲突，约有1900亿欧元的俄罗斯主权资产被冻结在总部位于布鲁塞尔的中央证券存 管机构——欧洲清算银行（Euroclear）。但包括美国、德国和比利时在内的许多西方国家，由于担心法 律和金融上的反弹，此前一直不愿动用这笔资金。 然而，近几周欧洲的立场发生了变化，尤其是在外媒看到的一份美国立场文件显示，特朗普政府呼吁 G7盟友扣押"或以其他方式使用俄罗斯的基础资产以资助乌克兰的国防"之后。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 随着柏林和其他西方国家转变立场，比利时正面临越来越大的压力，要求其允许动用被冻结的俄罗斯资 产，为乌克兰提供一笔"赔偿贷"。 一位欧盟高级官员表示："我们实际上认为，比利时在这里面临的风险相当有限。这并不是说完全没有 风险，也不是说我们不想与比利时进行非常严肃的讨论……但这些风险或许是可控的。" 在大多数欧盟国家的支持下，欧盟委员会认为，利用俄被扣押资金向乌克兰提供贷款并不构成资产没 收，并指出欧盟不承认欧盟以外的法院裁决。但比利时政府表示，"目前流传的计划并不令人满意"，或 有负债也"没有解决风险覆盖的问题"。欧盟的目标是在12月前就这笔1400 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储在"以何种力度降息"的问题上分歧严重，而其上次会议的最新纪要，或许能为华尔街揭示这一分 歧的真实程度。 周三公布的FOMC 9月会议纪要，将详细披露美联储内部辩论的过程。 德意志银行经济学家在一份报告中写道："尽管自上次会议以来，我们已听取了多数美联储官员的表 态，但会议纪要仍可能进一步揭示，官员们在政策前景上存在巨大分歧。" 尤其值得关注的是，米兰上月如何主张更大幅度降息，以及其他美联储高层对其观点的回应。 米兰曾提议将美联储基准短期利率下调50个基点，而非最终通过的25个基点。此外，还支持在美联储接 下来两次会议上各降息50个基点，但目前尚无其他美联储成员认同这一激进观点。 美联储的其他几位成员，如理事克里斯·沃勒（Chris Waller）和米歇尔·鲍曼（Michele Bowman），虽 对"加快降息以支撑劳动力市场"的观点持同情态度，但并未达到米兰的激进程度。 上个月，为支撑摇摇欲坠的美国就业市场，美联储实施了今年首次降息。当时的投票结果呈现一边倒的 11:1格局。 唯一投反对票的是担任美国总统特朗普经济顾问的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephe ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成 担忧美元及其他主要货币前景的投资者正大举涌入黄金、比特币与其他另类资产，助推着华尔街所谓 的"货币贬值交易"持续升温。 自美联储主席鲍威尔8月释放该央行将在低失业率与高通胀环境下开启降息的信号以来，交易员持续抢 购黄金，推动金价连创纪录。周二交投最活跃的黄金期货价格史上首次突破每盎司4000美元，紧接着周 三上午，现货黄金亦大举突破4000美元大关，目前正逼近4030美元，日内涨幅超1%。 2025年的这轮黄金涨势不同寻常之处在于，它并非由金融危机所驱动。期货市场年内52%的涨幅，有望 超越新冠疫情首年与2007-2009年衰退期间的同类涨势，仅次于1979年通胀冲击时的表现。 当前投资者正将资金倾注于黄金等贵金属与比特币等加密货币，与此同时，特朗普承诺通过减税刺激经 济，交易员则带着对人工智能的全方位狂热将股市推至历史新高。 与此同时，即使对股市和经济前景乐观的投资者也开始转向贵金属寻求保护。晨星Direct数据显示，交 易员9月向美国实物黄金交易所交易基金投入了创纪录的330亿美元。上周，贝莱德调整了其模型投资组 合——该组合被数千名财务顾问所跟踪—— ...

Group 1 - The US dollar has been weakening for most of the year, indicating potential threats to its global status, while gold prices have surged, with spot prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices could approach $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by various market dynamics [2] - The ICE Dollar Index (DXY) has declined nearly 9% this year against six major currencies, reflecting a cyclical rather than structural issue behind the dollar's depreciation [2][3] Group 2 - The recent US government shutdown has further fueled the momentum for gold as an investment, with many investors betting on the continued depreciation of the dollar [3] - Data from the US Treasury indicates that foreign investors net purchased $788.2 billion in US stocks and bonds in the first half of 2025, a significant increase compared to previous years [3] - The Bank for International Settlements has noted that non-US investors are increasingly hedging against risks associated with holding dollar-denominated securities, contributing to the dollar's weakness [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment towards the dollar remains negative, as evidenced by the inability of the dollar index to maintain levels above 98 during previous attempts to rebound [4] - The ongoing government shutdown is seen as detrimental to market confidence in the dollar [4]

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has surpassed $4,010 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest despite high stock market levels [1][3] - The BullionVault Gold Investor Index rose to 54.9, the highest since June, reflecting increased investor sentiment [1][3] Group 1: Investor Behavior - There has been a significant increase in new accounts at BullionVault, with first-time gold investors rising by 87.6% month-over-month and 213.5% year-over-year [3] - The current demand for gold is driven by retail investors and a fear of missing out (FOMO), as gold serves as a risk diversification tool in a high stock market [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with strong fundamentals supporting prices, including a dovish Federal Reserve stance and increased central bank purchases [4][5] - Factors that could drive gold prices higher include economic weakness prompting a more dovish Fed, concerns over government deficits, and geopolitical tensions [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - For gold prices to stabilize above $4,000 or potentially reach $5,000, sustained demand beyond retail investors is necessary [6] - Long-term bullish sentiment on gold is supported by central bank purchases, monetary expansion, and emerging investment demand [6][7] - Ray Dalio suggests allocating up to 15% of investment portfolios to gold, higher than the typical recommendation of 5% to 10% [6][7]

黄金价格首次突破每盎司4000美元大关，这一历史性跨越标志着在美国经济前景及全球地位引发担忧之际，投 资者正大举涌入另类资产。 今年以来，这种贵金属的涨幅已超过美国历次重大危机时期。2025年黄金期货逾50%的飙升幅度，超越了疫情 期间及2007-2009年经济衰退期的涨幅。自1979年通胀冲击以来，黄金还从未在一年内实现如此巨大的涨幅。 本轮上涨并无类似的历史动荡背景。推动金价飙升的部分原因，是市场担忧特朗普可能颠覆以美元为基石的战 后经济秩序。 特朗普重构全球贸易体系的尝试助推了金价，也颠覆了经济增长预期。白宫施压美联储降息，正威胁着这一金 融体系支柱机构的独立性。某项指标显示，美元创下了逾五十年来最疲软的上半年表现。 这些因素共同推高了黄金——这个或许是金融市场最传统的避风港。今年3月，交投最活跃的黄金期货首次突 破每盎司3000美元。但值得关注的是，即便近期贸易紧张局势缓和、AI热潮推动股市重拾升势，黄金依然在持 续刷新历史纪录。 本轮涨势的最新阶段始于8月。当时美联储主席鲍威尔释放信号，表明该央行准备在失业率低迷、通胀超标的 经济环境下启动降息。 全球央行持金量的年度变化 近月来，西方投资者也在大举 ...

Core Insights - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu exacerbates the already challenging economic outlook for France, primarily due to the government's inability to secure a parliamentary majority for necessary fiscal reforms [1] - France's budget deficit exceeds 5% of GDP, and its national debt approaches 114% of GDP, indicating significant fiscal imbalance compared to historical standards and other Eurozone core countries [1] - The rise in French government bond yields reflects increased governance risk premiums, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing that of Italy, a situation previously considered unimaginable [1] - The widening spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has exceeded 0.85 percentage points, signaling a loss of market confidence in France's political decision-making capabilities [1] Economic Implications - The ongoing political instability in France complicates the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy outlook, as it must balance high inflation with sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone [2] - The widening bond yield spread between France and Germany may hinder the ECB's ability to effectively transmit its monetary policy across the Eurozone, potentially leading to market fragmentation and systemic risks [2] - The turmoil in France is also impacting the UK, with rising UK bond yields as it competes for financing in global capital markets, indicating that the situation in France could have broader implications for European financial stability [2] Potential Risks - The ECB's strong backing could provide some protection for France, reminiscent of Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" commitment during the European debt crisis, but the situation remains precarious [3] - The Bank of England may also need to intervene if UK bond market sentiment deteriorates significantly, but such actions could be perceived as monetizing the UK's ongoing fiscal deficits, risking the central bank's credibility [3] - The upcoming UK fiscal budget in November will be critical, as failure to achieve fiscal consolidation could lead to a more severe situation than that faced by France [4]

然而，卡什卡利表示，"即便美联储实施一次或多次降息，也未必能转化为抵押贷款利率下降，因为原 本可能用于建造住宅或公寓楼的资金，正被转移至数据中心建设——这类投资能产生更高的回报。" "如果我们不顾经济基本面合理性，大幅超出必要幅度降息，最终可能会看到失业率极低而通胀极高的 局面，导致经济实际过热。"他补充道。 卡什卡利此前支持美联储9月降息25个基点，且认为应在本月晚些时候和12月的下两次利率决策会议 上，以同等幅度降息，以防止美国劳动力市场进一步疲软。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）于周二发出警告，称任何大幅降息都可能引发通 胀反弹风险。 卡什卡利在周二明尼苏达州《明星论坛报》（Minnesota Star Tribune）主办的"人工智能与经济"专题讨 论会上表示，"本质上，如果试图推动经济增速超过其潜在增长能力、推动物价涨幅突破其合理区间， 最终只会导致整体经济领域的全面涨价。" 这位美联储官员今年虽不参与货币政策投票，但会参与联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议事。他指出， 当前经济数据呈现出滞胀迹象——经济增长放缓的同时，通胀却持续高企。 卡什卡利还称，尽管他认为人工智 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 周二，美元指数走强，升至逾一周高点，最终收涨0.49%，报98.59。在美国三年期国债拍卖吸引了强劲需求后，美债收益率普跌，基准的10年期美债收益率 收报4.131%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.576%。 由于投资者在美国政府停摆且经济面临不确定性的背景下继续寻求避风港，现货黄金一度触及3990美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，最终收涨0.59%，收报 3984.56美元/盎司；现货白银盘中跳水，失守48美元/盎司关口，最终收跌1.43%，报47.83美元/盎司。 随着交易员权衡11月份欧佩克+ 谨慎减产与潜在供应过剩迹象，国际原油横盘震荡。WTI原油企稳在61美元关口上方，最终收涨0.46%，报61.8美元/桶；布 伦特原油最终收涨0.26%，报65.55美元/桶。 美股三大股指齐跌，道指收跌0.2%，标普500指数跌0.38%，纳指跌0.67%。特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌4.4%，AMD(AMD.O)涨近4%，Strategy(MSTR.O)跌8.7%。 ...

Group 1 - Ray Dalio asserts that gold is "undoubtedly" a safer hedge asset than the US dollar, with current gold price surges reminiscent of the high inflation and economic turmoil of the 1970s [1][2] - Dalio suggests that a strategic asset allocation should include approximately 15% gold, contrasting with traditional financial advisors who recommend a 60/40 stock-bond allocation [1] - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, also advocates for a high allocation of gold in investment portfolios, suggesting up to 25% due to inflation pressures and a weakening dollar [1] Group 2 - Gold is highlighted as a unique asset that does not rely on others' payment commitments, making it valuable during currency devaluation and geopolitical uncertainty [2][3] - Since late July, gold prices have increased over 20%, reaching around $4000 per ounce, driven by risks of US government shutdown and speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - Dalio emphasizes that gold serves as a strong store of value amid rising government debt, geopolitical tensions, and declining confidence in fiat currency stability [3] Group 3 - Dalio draws parallels between the current gold price recovery and the early 1970s, noting that both gold and stocks rose simultaneously during that period [3] - Concerns are raised regarding the recent surge in the US stock market, with Dalio indicating signs of a bubble, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector [3] - Despite valuation concerns, Dalio remains optimistic about opportunities in AI, particularly for companies that can achieve efficiency gains and those providing AI technology platforms [4] Group 4 - Dalio expresses a positive outlook on the Chinese market but notes that a larger portion of funds is currently allocated in the US [4]