伊朗官方媒体周三早些时候则报道，伊朗外长阿巴斯・阿拉克奇（Abbas Araqchi）表示，其近日并未 与美国特使史蒂夫・威特科夫（Steve Witkoff）进行接触，也未主动提出谈判请求。 特朗普称，此次部署在波斯湾的海军部队，规模超过了美军当年针对委内瑞拉、在抓捕该国前领导人尼 古拉斯・马杜罗（NicolásMaduro）前派出的部队。 他还补充道，这支舰队"已做好准备、愿意且能够迅速执行任务，必要时将以雷霆之势、强力出击"。 特朗普还提及美方去年在以色列12天战事期间，对伊朗关键核设施发起的打击行动，并警告称："下一 次打击的力度会大得多！别再让这种情况发生。" 英国广播公司事实核查团队借助开源工具，已追踪到美军向该地区的部分部署行动。一名美国国防官员 向该团队证实，以"亚伯拉罕・林肯"号航空母舰为首的美国海军"舰队"也已抵达中东。 伊朗驻联合国代表团对特朗普的最新威胁作出回应，称德黑兰"愿在相互尊重、符合双方利益的基础上 展开对话"，但同时用大写字母表示，若遭受逼迫，伊朗将奋起自卫，并作出"前所未有的反击"。 美国总统特朗普周三敦促伊朗重返谈判桌，就核武器问题达成协议，并称若拒绝谈判，美方发起的下一 ...

市场分析师Ghiles Guezout表示，这一宣布可能最早就在今天。财经网站Investinglive分析师Eamonn Sheridan也表示，特朗普官宣时机有可能特意安排在美联储1月政策会议期间。据分析，此举具有战略 意图，若美联储此次未降息，那么在会议期间宣布美联储主席人选将使白宫能够左右政策叙事。 特朗普可能提前公布下任美联储主席提名，甚至将官宣时间与本周美联储的利率决议同步。美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨03:00公布利率决议。 周二在爱荷华州的演讲中，特朗普表示："我很快就会宣布美联储主席人选。"至于很快是"多快"，市场 对此的猜测正在加剧。 当前市场押注的热门人选为贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德尔（Rick Rieder），投资者认 为他支持降息，且不会对美联储的独立性构成直接威胁。 截至发稿，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，里德尔的当选概率以46.1%位居首位，远超前美联储理事 凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）的29%；现任美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）的概率为 7.5%，国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特（Ke ...

但论文作者表示，至少对华尔街而言，Kalshi相比传统预测方式可能具备诸多优势。该平台上的合约交 易活跃，能针对更广泛的变量产出实时更新结果，同时更能全面反映各类潜在结果的可能性。 西北大学凯洛格管理学院博士研究生、论文联合作者贾里德・迪恩・卡茨（Jared Dean Katz）表 示："其真正的优势在于，能给出结果的概率分布而非单一的点估计，还能观察到事件发生后市场的快 速反应。" 他补充道："更难得的是，这些预测的准确率相当高。" 与竞争对手一样，Kalshi推出的各类"是/否"合约均以每份1美元兑付。例如，若某份合约售价32美分， 即意味着市场认为该结果发生的概率为32%。针对经济数据的合约，大多与消费者价格指数（CPI）等 最终数据是否高于某一特定水平挂钩。 论文指出，从2022年至2026年6月的数据分析来看，Kalshi平台上的最可能预测结果（即交易者认为发 生概率最高的结果），在美联储决议公布前一晚的预判均完全准确。尽管美联储通常擅长引导市场预 期，但在2024年9月其推出超预期的50个基点降息时，该预测市场的表现依然亮眼。 一项新研究显示，炙手可热的预测平台Kalshi涉足了从超级碗赛事到美国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the current panic surrounding the US dollar is exaggerated, and a diversified investment strategy involving both the dollar and gold is recommended [1][2]. - Alexander Campbell suggests that holding gold positions is essentially equivalent to shorting the dollar, as gold is priced in dollars and tends to attract speculative funds when the dollar weakens [1][2]. - The so-called "currency devaluation" trade is more driven by market sentiment rather than actual trading behavior, with investors not fleeing the dollar en masse but rather under-allocating to gold and silver due to a long-term bull market and low inflation [2]. Group 2 - Campbell highlights that significant concerns regarding the dollar's future, such as large-scale liquidation of US Treasuries by Japanese insurers or a drop in the dollar's share of international payments, have not materialized [3]. - For those believing in a "dollar doomsday," Campbell advises shorting US stocks and bonds, as actual selling of these assets would reflect genuine bearish sentiment towards the dollar [3]. - Investors anticipating a controlled decline of the dollar are encouraged to hold a mix of gold, dollars, and short-term assets, drawing parallels to market strategies from 2000 to 2010 when the dollar also experienced a downtrend [3].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰审核 | 浦电路交易员 01行情走势 1月28日，大量资金涌入沪铝，推动期价大涨，创历史新高，主力合约收涨5.75%，持仓增加逾5万手，资金流入超17亿元。直接上游氧化铝品种，今日减 仓上涨，主力05合约价格涨幅3.27%，以2811元/吨收盘，另外6月份和7月份合约价格涨幅也在3%以上。同时，A股市场中多只和铝相关的股票纷纷涨停收 盘，如中国铝业、云铝股份、南山铝业等。 市场分析指出，沪铝今日走强主要收到以下几个因素驱动： 一、宏观与地缘风险：为铝价注入"风险溢价" 1、霍尔木兹海峡危机预期：美伊紧张局势升级，市场担忧伊朗可能封锁该海峡。这直接威胁到中东地区（年产电解铝约700万吨，占全球9%）的铝产 业： 直接断供：中东地区氧化铝原料依赖进口，海峡封锁将导致当地冶炼厂原料断供、被迫减产，并切断其占产量约60%的出口铝流，冲击全球供应链。 成本抬升：该海峡承载全球30%石油贸易，封锁将引发油价暴涨。由于电力成本约占电解铝生产成本的50%，能源价格飙升将系统性推高全球铝生产成 本。 2、美元走弱与资金迁徙：美元指数大幅下跌，利好以美元计价的基本金属。同时，贵金属市场因 ...

Group 1: Silver and Gold Price Predictions - Citigroup raised its three-month silver price forecast to $150 per ounce from $100, citing a recent surge of over 30% in silver prices, which currently trade above $110, with potential for a further 30-40% increase in the coming weeks [1] - Goldman Sachs noted that the volatility in silver prices is expected to persist, while maintaining a significant upward risk for its year-end gold price target of $5,400 [1] - Deutsche Bank projected that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce under a weakening dollar scenario, with potential to challenge $6,900 based on past performance [2] - The Royal Bank of Canada indicated that gold's upward momentum is far from peaking, with a year-end target of $7,100 per ounce due to geopolitical instability and central bank demand [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - HSBC highlighted that the sudden spike in U.S. interest rate volatility poses a significant risk to the bond market, although it is not expected to occur in the short term [4] - HSBC also pointed out that the attractiveness of Japanese government bonds is diminishing compared to other developed market sovereign debts, predicting a rise in long-term Japanese bond yields ahead of the upcoming elections [5] - Deutsche Bank forecasted that copper prices could peak at $13,000 per ton in Q2 due to tightening supply-demand dynamics, but may face a correction later in the year [8] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Various Sectors - Galaxy Securities emphasized investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, military trade, and intelligent equipment, driven by high demand growth in the next five years [12] - Huatai Securities expressed optimism for household energy storage, driven by rising electricity prices and the need for efficient energy solutions [13] - CITIC Securities projected a continued weak supply-demand balance in the coal industry into 2026, but with potential for improved profitability under supportive policies [14] - CITIC Securities also noted that the price of copper-clad laminates is expected to rise, with significant room for margin improvement [15] - CITIC Securities highlighted the potential for stable sales in the liquor industry during the upcoming Spring Festival, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investments [16] - CITIC Securities identified the commercial aerospace industry's growth as a driver for increased demand in satellite communication markets, projecting significant market growth by 2035 [17]

周三，明晟公司（MSCI Inc.）对印尼股市的可投资性提出质疑，并警告其或被下调至前沿市场评级，受此消息影响，印尼股市暴跌。 印尼雅加达综合指数在停牌30分钟恢复交易后，跌幅一度扩大至8.8%，最终大幅收跌7.4%，报8,320.56点，创2025年4月8日以来最大单 日跌幅。此次抛售潮的导火索，是明晟宣布将立即暂停多项指数调整举措（包括纳入新成分股），直至印尼监管机构解决上市公司股权 高度集中的相关问题。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 印尼证券交易所运营商周三向记者表示，其正致力于满足明晟对提高市场透明度的要求，并将与明晟协商达成共识。该交易所上市部门 董事伊・格德・尼奥曼・耶特纳（IGede Nyoman Yetna）透露，交易所还计划就合理的流通股比例向市场参与者征求意见。 若印尼未能在5月前在透明度提升方面取得足够进展，明晟将重新评估该国的市场准入评级——此举可能导致印尼所有企业在明晟新兴市 场指数中的权重被下调，甚至可能被直接降级为前沿市场。 在截至1月23日的一周，海外投资者净卖出价值1.92亿美元的印尼本土股票，这是16周以来的首次资金净流出，且抛售潮本周仍在持续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a significant decline, prompting speculation that the U.S. government may take concrete actions to lower the dollar's value and reshape global trade dynamics, moving beyond mere verbal statements [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance and Market Reactions - The dollar index has recorded its worst performance in the first half of 2025 since the floating exchange rate era, dropping to its lowest level since early 2022 [2]. - The dollar's decline is not limited to the Japanese yen; other currencies such as the South Korean won, Chinese yuan, and Australian dollar have also seen gains, with the euro reaching a nearly five-year high [1][3]. Group 2: Government Actions and Speculations - Speculation arises that the Trump administration aims to significantly reduce the dollar's real exchange rate, which has appreciated nearly 50% over the past decade, as a strategy to narrow the U.S. trade deficit [4]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's ambiguous stance on the dollar's value and recent actions to support the Japanese yen have intensified market speculation about potential U.S. intervention in the currency market [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Risks - The potential for a significant dollar depreciation raises concerns about the stability of U.S. assets held by foreign investors, which exceeded $27 trillion by the end of last year [7]. - A sudden and substantial drop in the dollar could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy-making, especially in the context of rising inflation concerns and political pressures [9]. - Analysts suggest that achieving a weaker dollar while avoiding market turmoil is a challenging balancing act, particularly given the current geopolitical and domestic political tensions [10].

周三，国际现货黄金价格一路上扬，首次突破5300美元/盎司，周内已连破四个整百关口，本周累计涨超300美元，截至发稿又向上触及5310美元/盎司，日 内涨超2.5%。 当下持有黄金和白银的成本已升至历史峰值，但这丝毫未能阻挡投资者的买入步伐。 摩根士丹利本周表示，黄金或在今年下半年攀升至每盎司5700美元；高盛则将12月黄金目标价从此前的每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元。 以马克西米利安・莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首的花旗银行分析师团队在周二的报告中称，白银的涨势由资本配置驱动，其表现"堪比'平方黄金'，或是打 了兴奋剂的黄金"。 价格回调不仅未引发市场对涨势终结的担忧，反而被视作逢低布局的良机。这一现象充分彰显了投资者的坚定信心，以及贵金属在长期风险管理中占据的核 心地位，同时也印证了投行对其给出的超高价格目标。 英国贵金属交易商GoldCore市场主管简・斯科尔斯（Jan Skoyles）表示："倘若你问任何人，要满足何种条件黄金才会突破每盎司5100美元、白银突破每盎 司100美元，更不用说110美元，大多数人或许都会认为需要发生金融大崩盘。" 斯科尔斯在接受《市场观察》采访时称： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that international spot gold has stabilized above the $5,000 mark and is making a push towards $5,300 per ounce, recording over a 20% increase at the start of the year, marking the best performance since 1980 [1] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are supported and have momentum to rise further, global economic resilience may pose a challenge to gold's upward trajectory [2] - The driving factors behind gold's rise include concerns over unchecked fiscal debt expansion, the weakening of the US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and persistent inflation worries, although these concerns have not yet materialized into severe market reactions [3] Group 2 - There is an increasing risk of long-term consolidation for gold rather than a significant pullback, as the structural logic supporting gold remains intact [4] - In contrast, there are greater concerns regarding silver, which has seen its best start to the year since records began in 1972, with a nearly 60% increase in January alone [5] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to retail participation, speculative positions, and investor anxiety, leading to historical high levels compared to gold and platinum, which may disrupt industrial demand [5]