美国总统特朗普表示，在他亲自请求俄罗斯总统普京因乌克兰首都严寒天气而停止攻击后，普京同意一 周内不对基辅开火。 特朗普称他对普京的默许感到"高兴"。"我亲自请求普京总统在这……极度寒冷期间，不要向基辅及周 边城镇开火，为期一周，"特朗普在周四的内阁会议上说道。"他同意了。我得告诉你们，这非常令人欣 慰。" 特朗普补充道，身边的人曾劝他不要"浪费"时间打电话给俄罗斯领导人，因为他的请求很可能无功而 返。 "如果他们准备好讨论某种形式的停火，哪怕是暂时的，也值得一试，"这位乌克兰高级官员表示。"我 们需要这个。" 泽连斯基周四晚些时候证实，各团队已在阿联酋讨论了能源停火问题。俄罗斯最近几周对乌克兰关键基 础设施的袭击，使基辅和该国其他几个地区在俄乌冲突以来最严酷的冬天里陷入了寒冷和黑暗。 乌克兰最近几天的气温已降至零下20摄氏度，预计下周还会更低。泽连斯基在周三晚间的讲话中表示， 他的情报官员警告称，俄罗斯正计划对乌克兰发动另一次大规模空袭，而基辅方面尚未收到莫斯科同意 停止导弹和无人机轰炸的确认。"我们看到的是俄罗斯每天都在打击我们的能源基础设施，"一位乌克兰 高级官员说。 预计美国、乌克兰和俄罗斯最快将于下周 ...

Group 1 - Trump will announce the Federal Reserve chairperson candidate next week, suggesting interest rates should decrease by 2 to 3 percentage points [10] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks purchased a net 230 tons of gold in Q4, with strong demand expected to continue into 2026 [13] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin levels for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures [13] Group 2 - The U.S. government is facing another potential shutdown crisis as the Senate failed to advance a funding bill [13] - The Indonesian stock market experienced a significant drop, triggering a trading halt, prompting authorities to respond by increasing the minimum float requirement for stocks [11] - The Chinese government is planning to develop more "space+" future industries, including space mining and space tourism [16]

由于美国总统特朗普正考虑对OPEC成员国伊朗实施军事打击，国际原油价格周四大涨，美、布两油日内涨幅扩大至4%以上，布伦特原油站上70美元/桶， WTI原油站上66美元/桶，均为去年9月以来首次。最新消息称，伊朗发出警告，宣布计划于周日和下周一在霍尔木兹海峡举行实弹海军演习。 据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社29日报道，伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫表示，在当前局势下难以信任美国总统特朗普，在伊朗人民的经济利益未得到保证之前，谈 判不会进行。 此前多名消息人士向路透社透露，特朗普正考虑针对伊朗安全部队及领导层实施精准打击，以支持伊朗反政府抗议者。两名美国消息人士表示，这位美国总 统旨在为伊朗政权更迭创造条件。 本月早些时候，伊朗政府为平息抗议活动发起安全镇压，已导致数千人死亡。 另一方面，哈萨克斯坦的巨型田吉兹油田在上周因电气火灾导致产量下降后，正在分阶段重新启动，目标是在一周内恢复全面生产。 而在美国，作为世界最大的石油生产国和最大的液化天然气出口国，其原油和天然气生产商正在恢复油井的生产，此前冬季风暴"弗恩"在上周末造成了生产 中断。 瑞银分析师乔瓦尼·斯陶诺沃（Giovanni Staunovo）表示："哈萨克斯坦出现的 ...

受强劲需求预期、美元走弱及地缘政治担忧支撑，投机客继续大举买入，推动铜价周四创下每吨超 14000美元的历史新高。他们全然无视部分分析师的警示——高价格将抑制工业消费端的实物需求，且 当前铜价缺乏供需基本面支撑。 截止发稿，LME伦铜涨幅扩大至10.1%，现报14410.5美元/吨，续创历史新高。国际铜主力合约突破 100000元/吨，日内涨5.77%。 分析师称，尽管铜以工业用途为主，但近期涨势得益于空前的投资者需求与投机者入场。 Britannia Global Markets分析师尼尔・威尔士（Neil Welsh）在报告中表示："铜价创下数年来最大单日 涨幅，这背后是多头密集的投机交易推动。投资者押注美国经济增长走强，且全球在数据中心、机器人 及电力基础设施领域的支出将增加，因此大举涌入基本金属市场。" 斯普罗特资产管理公司（Sprott Asset Management）数据显示，美国铜交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金 流入今年"爆发式增长"，目前净流入已达12亿美元，较2025年全年的4.26亿美元翻倍有余——这表明市 场对铜的买入热情已开始向黄金靠拢。 交易员表示，铜价走高也源于硬资产投资热度的溢 ...

特朗普已下令美军在波斯湾地区增兵，为潜在军事行动做准备。以色列、沙特及该地区其他国家多日来 保持高度戒备，预判美国可能发起对伊打击。 以色列代表团此次到访华盛顿，核心目的是分享伊朗境内潜在打击目标的相关情报。而沙特方面则对可 能爆发的地区战争高度担忧，正试图协助促成外交解决方案。 两名美国官员透露，以色列军事情报局长什洛米・宾德（Shlomi Binder）将军于周二和周三，与美国国 防部、中央情报局及白宫的高级官员举行了会晤。 一名知情人士称，宾德此次到访是为了向特朗普政府汇报——美方此前要求的、关于伊朗的具体情报信 息。 沙特国防大臣哈立德・本・萨勒曼（Khalidbin Salman）亲王预计将在五角大楼、美国国务院和白宫举 行多场聚焦伊朗问题的会谈，包括与美国国务卿马可・鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）及特使史蒂夫・威特科 夫（Steve Witkoff）会面。身为沙特王储最亲密心腹的哈立德亲王，将于周四和周五到访华盛顿。 两名美国官员及两名知情人士向Axios透露，特朗普政府本周邀请以色列和沙特的高级国防与情报官 员，就伊朗问题举行会谈，与此同时，特朗普正考虑实施军事打击。 白宫官员表示，特朗普尚未 ...

1月29日，白酒股强势反弹，鹏华酒ETF涨停，贵州茅台股价重返1400元。有网友在雪球问是不是段永平买上去的，段永平表示："今天真没买。"不过，1 月29日更早些时候，段永平透露，这两天用中国神华换了些贵州茅台。 除了白酒股大涨以外，大消费板块整体表现较为抢眼，多只食品饮料ETF涨幅也超过7%。站在当前时点看，消费板块后续机会如何？ 段永平：今天真没买 在长时间股价低迷后，1月29日，贵州茅台股价罕见大涨8.61%。 | | | | | 600519 贵州茅台 | | | 1437.72 | +114.03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IHO 合田图形 | 区间统计 前复权 ~ 隐藏停牌 到价提醒 筹码 : (~) | K 7 | 已收市 CNY | | | | 融 通 | +8.61% ਵ 自选 + ▼ | | 60:1405.316 ↑ MA250:1436.542 ↑ | 设置均线。 | | 委比 | 78.26% 委差 | 244 | 行情分析 | | 深度分析 | | 2025/8/5-2026/1/29(1 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts later this year due to easing inflation, allowing for two "normalization" cuts to bring rates back to neutral levels [1] - Allspring analysts highlight that sticky inflation and a stable job market will keep the Fed on hold, with a focus on the upcoming selection of a new Fed chair, likely to be more dovish [1][2] - Carson Group suggests that no rate cuts will occur before Powell's departure in May, with inflation remaining a concern despite positive labor market indicators [2] Group 2 - Ninepoint Partners anticipates the Bank of Canada to maintain rates until mid-2026, with potential rate hikes depending on economic stability [2] - Bank of America predicts the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates to 3.85% in February due to previous underestimations of inflation, with risks leaning towards further hikes in May [3] - CICC reports that the Fed's first rate cut may be delayed until the second quarter of 2026, citing structural issues in income distribution and affordability as core economic challenges [4] Group 3 - Huatai Securities maintains that the Fed will pause rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts expected after the new chair takes office [5] - CITIC Securities forecasts that the remaining meetings under Powell will not result in rate cuts, as the Fed signals stability in the labor market and inflation concerns persist [5] - CITIC JianTou notes a recovery in fiber demand driven by AI applications, leading to potential profit and valuation increases for leading companies in the industry [6] Group 4 - CITIC JianTou's analysis indicates that A-shares are entering a critical verification period for economic prosperity, with a focus on sectors like AI and new energy [7] - CITIC Securities observes a price increase in core intermediates for dyes, predicting continued price rises and industry consolidation [8] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about the specialty fiber sector's growth potential through 2026, driven by rising demand for high-end PCBs and supply constraints [9] Group 5 - CITIC Securities highlights the electronic sector's potential for excess returns in the next six months, with a focus on AI and self-sufficiency in investment strategies [9]

沙特与阿联酋的紧张关系已于去年12月公开化，如今该国似乎已准备好接手。苏丹国有矿产资源公司 （Sudanese Mineral Resources Co.）发言人透露，沙特私营企业沙特黄金精炼公司（Saudi Gold Refinery Co.）本周告知苏丹政府，其已准备好"立即开始收购黄金"。 目前关于交易时间及出口规模尚未披露细节，沙特政府与沙特黄金精炼公司的发言人也未回应邮件问 询。 此举意味着这两个阿拉伯世界最大经济体之间的争端，可能开辟新的商业战线。上月沙特给阿联酋军队 24小时撤离也门的最后通牒后，已迅速采取行动削弱这个东部邻国的广泛影响力，包括在非洲之角地区 的布局。 据彭博社本周报道，尽管双方尚未采取正式外交或商业制裁措施，但在两国均有业务的部分企业已开始 制定应急计划，以确保局势进一步升级时业务能持续开展。 沙特与苏丹军队关系密切，自2023年4月以来，苏丹军队一直在与准军事组织快速支援部队（RSF）交 战，这场内战据信已造成数十万人死亡。 苏丹军方于去年6月正式与阿联酋断交，指控其向快速支援部队提供武器——阿联酋对此一再否认。此 后双方部分贸易被迫中断，包括苏丹的石油出口，但黄金仍在流向阿 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 伊斯坦布尔100指数有望创下29年来最佳的1月表现 音频由扣子空间生成 受益于新兴市场乐观情绪蔓延及自身估值优势，外国投资者重新涌入土耳其股市，推动该国股市有望创下1997年以来的最佳1月表现。 以美元计价，伊斯坦布尔100指数1月至今已上涨19%，为1997年以来同期最佳表现。即便经历本轮上涨，以预期市盈率衡量，土耳其股市相较于其他 新兴市场股票仍存在显著估值折让。 土耳其股市的交易价格较新兴市场同类股票低约70% 去年，土耳其总统雷杰普・塔伊普・埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）对政治对手的打压令投资者恐慌，导致土耳其资产在新兴市场期待已久的反 弹行情中错失良机。如今，在美元走弱以及投资者寻求分散美国资产配置的推动下，土耳其股市正逐步缩小与其他新兴市场的差距。 阿塔投资管理公司首席执行官巴图汉・奥兹沙欣（Batuhan Ozsahin）表示："在新兴市场需求旺盛的背景下，土耳其股市正迎头赶上，美元贬值交易 仍在强劲持续。" 土耳其央行数据显示，自去年12月初至今年1月16日，该国股市已吸引13.6亿美元的外资流入。贝莱德前沿市场投资信托基金目前将土耳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tether's increasing demand for physical gold is becoming a significant force in the precious metals market, although its ability to independently influence gold prices remains limited [1]. Group 1: Tether's Gold Allocation Strategy - Tether plans to increase its gold allocation in its investment portfolio from approximately 7% to between 10% and 15% [1]. - If implemented, this adjustment could lead to an additional multi-billion dollar scale of gold purchases, given Tether's current stablecoin circulation of about $186 billion [1]. Group 2: Current Gold Holdings - Tether currently holds approximately 130 to 140 tons of physical gold, valued at around $23 to $24 billion [3]. - The gold allocation in Tether's overall assets has reached 12% to 13% after significant purchases over the past year [3]. Group 3: Market Mechanism and Impact - Tether's gold purchases primarily affect the demand side, as the short-term supply of gold is inelastic [5]. - The annual global gold production is about 3,500 to 3,600 tons, with recycled gold supply around 1,200 to 1,500 tons, making it difficult to significantly increase output in response to sudden demand spikes [5]. Group 4: Marginal Impact on Gold Prices - Tether's gold demand, estimated at 50 to 100 tons annually, accounts for about 1% to 2% of global annual supply, which is insufficient to dominate the market but can create marginal effects [7]. - The immediate impact of Tether's purchases is a tightening of physical gold liquidity, which may narrow bid-ask spreads and make gold prices more sensitive to incremental buyers [7]. Group 5: Price Support and Market Sentiment - Tether's weekly gold purchases of 1 to 2 tons may support gold prices by approximately 1% to 3% in the short term, particularly in contexts of a weakening dollar or rising geopolitical risks [8]. - Tether's positioning of gold as a "central bank-level reserve asset" resonates with market sentiments, especially as central banks have been increasing their gold purchases [9]. Group 6: Limitations of Tether's Influence - Despite Tether's significant role, its gold accumulation will not alter the long-term supply curve of gold, and its purchasing power cannot match that of sovereign buyers and ETFs [9]. - Macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies, dollar strength, and global risk sentiment remain the primary drivers of gold price movements [9]. Group 7: Conclusion - Tether's gold purchasing actions add structural demand support to the gold market, tightening the availability of physical gold and marginally supporting prices [10]. - Ultimately, Tether acts as a "stabilizer" in the market rather than a "game changer," reinforcing an already bullish market backdrop without triggering significant price surges on its own [11].