Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, citing increased demand from private investors and central banks [1] - Central banks are expected to purchase 60 tons of gold monthly, and ETF gold holdings are projected to expand as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that gold is becoming the biggest challenger to the dollar, with its share in central bank reserves rising from approximately 14% to 25%-28% [2] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Corpay's chief market strategist indicated that Trump's tariff threats led to a "sell America" effect, lowering the dollar's value and increasing prices of safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Angeles Investments' CIO stated that while diversifying assets outside the U.S. is reasonable, there is no intention to abandon U.S. assets due to strong corporate profitability [4] - Citigroup reported that South Korea may introduce a new fiscal stimulus plan worth approximately $68 billion to address economic growth imbalances [5] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - HSBC economists suggested that if the Bank of Japan's governor returns to a cautious stance, the yen may face new downward pressure, potentially leading to inflation concerns [6] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that there is no urgent reason for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again, as the effects of monetary policy changes take time to manifest [7] - Singapore's OCBC Bank indicated that clearer communication from the Bank of Japan regarding wage growth expectations could signal earlier interest rate hikes [8] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent rise in the USD/CNY exchange rate may create an ideal buying opportunity for U.S. Treasuries by March [5] - CICC pointed out that the current volatility in U.S. and Japanese bond markets reflects global liquidity fluctuations, suggesting potential systemic risks [6] - CICC also mentioned that the ETF market has ample growth potential, although growth rates may slow this year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing culture of self-censorship among executives in the financial industry due to the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration, highlighting concerns about potential repercussions for speaking out against the government [1][2][3]. Group 1: Executive Concerns - Executives from major investment firms are expressing concerns about the impact of rapidly changing U.S. policies on global markets, particularly in light of Trump's controversial actions [1]. - There is a notable reluctance among executives to publicly address sensitive topics related to U.S. policies, with some advising teams to avoid controversial comments regarding U.S.-Europe relations [2][3]. - The fear of backlash from the Trump administration is leading to a culture of caution, where analysts worry that critical reports could hinder their firms' ability to operate in the U.S. [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Research and Reporting - Deutsche Bank's recent report predicting a decline in European willingness to hold U.S. assets due to Trump's actions has led to attempts by the bank's CEO to distance the firm from the report [1][4]. - Analysts are increasingly modifying their reports to avoid potential criticism from the Trump administration, with some even redacting parts of their analyses to mitigate risks [4]. - The emphasis on producing independent and impactful research is being overshadowed by the need to avoid unnecessary provocations that could embarrass the government [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Danish and Swedish pension funds are withdrawing from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over U.S. policies, budget deficits, and national debt unpredictability [5]. - The actions of these funds reflect a broader trend of caution among international investors regarding U.S. assets amid the current political climate [5].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 区区2.8亿美元的交易规模，竟让总市值达7.2万亿美元的日本国债市场陷入崩盘。 周二，日本基准超长期国债价格重挫，相关交易总成交额仅为2.8亿美元，却导致日本国债市场蒸发410亿美元，这场暴跌还引发全球市场的剧烈震荡。 此次抛售潮将日本国债收益率推至历史新高，市场担忧日本将迎来"特拉斯时刻"，美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）也针对这一被其称为"六个 标准差"的极端波动，寻求日方的相关保证。 日本国债的巨额市值蒸发与实际交易规模的严重脱节，凸显出这个流动性时常不足的国债市场，已成为全球金融体系的一大薄弱环节。在日本央行多年大规 模购债主导市场后，随着该央行逐步退出购债，这个全球第三大国债市场的脆弱性正持续加剧。 瑞穗证券（东京）首席交易台策略师大森祥基（Shoki Omori）表示："这并非悖论，在一个市场深度不足、交易商资产负债表受限、价格由边际交易而非成 交量加权平均决定的市场，这正是你会看到的结果。" 彭博社整理的日本债券交易公司数据显示，周二日本最受关注的30年期国债成交额仅1.7亿美元，40年期国债成交额也仅1.1亿美元 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 俄罗斯总统普京将于周四在莫斯科与美国特使威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳讨论乌克兰可能的和平计 划。此前，美国总统特朗普表示，结束冲突的协议已"相当接近"。 美国已就各种不同版本的结束俄乌冲突的计划草案与俄罗斯举行了会谈，并分别与基辅和欧洲领导人进 行了磋商，但尽管特朗普一再承诺要达成协议，目前尚未敲定任何方案。 普京在周三晚些时候的俄罗斯联邦安全会议上发表讲话说，他将在莫斯科会见特朗普特使威特科夫和特 朗普女婿库什纳，以"继续就乌克兰解决方案进行对话"，以及讨论特朗普的"和平委员会"构想和使用被 冻结的俄罗斯资产的可能性。 另一边，据知情人士透露，乌克兰总统泽连斯基将于周四前往达沃斯与特朗普会面。泽连斯基本周早些 时候表示，他不太可能前往世界经济论坛年会，因为他正在指挥应对俄罗斯大规模空袭的行动，这些空 袭导致基辅和其他几个地区的大片区域在严寒的冬季没有暖气、电力和水。 泽连斯基此前曾表示，如果美乌双方能够就安全保障和振兴乌克兰经济的计划达成协议，他将重新考虑 缺席此次会晤的计划。 此时正值关键时刻，不仅关乎如何结束这场自二战以来欧洲最致命的冲突，还涉及乌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in Japanese government bonds, traditionally seen as stable investments, has raised concerns among investors following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's announcement of early elections and tax cuts, leading to a significant rise in bond yields [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds surged by 27 basis points to a historic high of 3.88%, while the 40-year bond yield exceeded 4% for the first time [1] - Following the spike in yields, Japan's Finance Minister urged the market to remain calm, resulting in a slight rebound in bond yields, although market sentiment remains fearful with low trading volumes [1] Group 2: Potential Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may intervene by purchasing bonds to stabilize the market, which would increase bond prices and lower yields, as the BOJ is a major net buyer of Japanese government bonds under its yield curve control policy [1] - The BOJ's current holdings account for over half of the total market, but it is attempting to gradually reduce its bond purchases [1] Group 3: Adjustments to Bond Purchase Plans - The BOJ had planned to reduce its monthly bond purchases by 400 billion yen (approximately $2.5 billion) quarterly starting July 2024, but this plan may be postponed due to increased caution stemming from trade and geopolitical risks [5] - There are suggestions from political figures to delay the reduction of bond purchases, which could further pressure the yen [5] Group 4: Yield Curve Dynamics - Long-term Japanese government bonds have seen the most significant sell-off, leading to a steepening of the yield curve as investors demand higher returns for holding these bonds [8] - The BOJ could adopt a "twist operation" strategy, similar to that used by the Federal Reserve, by selling short-term bonds and using the proceeds to buy long-term bonds [8] Group 5: Government Bond Issuance Strategies - The demand for ultra-long-term bonds, typically absorbed by life insurance companies, is declining, prompting the government to consider reducing the scale of bond auctions to rebalance supply and demand [11] - The Japanese government has already reduced the issuance scale of ultra-long-term bonds to the lowest level in 17 years in its latest fiscal budget [11] Group 6: Pension Fund Asset Allocation - The Government Pension Investment Fund, the world's largest public pension fund, manages approximately 260 trillion yen in assets and holds about $400 billion in foreign bonds [12] - Adjustments in the fund's asset allocation could signal a strong return of Japanese capital, potentially boosting both Japanese government bonds and the yen [12]

美国总统特朗普从军事干预转向北约斡旋的格陵兰折中方案，让欧洲各国难以判断这位美国总统接管这 块北极领土的施压行动是否已经结束，以及是否还能信任他的话。 特朗普的帝国主义言论曾促使欧盟领导人周四在布鲁塞尔召开紧急会议，讨论如何回应他接管这块丹麦 控制领土的意图。但这位美国总统在周三晚会见北约秘书长吕特后宣布，他已找到一个"解决方案"，并 撤回了对反对他吞并这块北极岛屿野心的欧盟国家征收关税的威胁。 通过搁置针对格陵兰岛的一些最激进的威胁，特朗普也让欧洲领导人陷入了一场讨论，在这场讨论中， 相互竞争的国家利益——无论是关于贸易、格陵兰岛、乌克兰还是跨大西洋联盟——更有可能浮出水 面。 "他表现得更加灵活，这对欧盟的团结是危险的，因为他显然在迎合成员国之间的不同观点，"一位参与 峰会筹备的官员说。 特朗普的声明称，"关于'金穹顶'（Golden Dome）与格陵兰岛关系的进一步讨论正在进行中"，指的是 其政府提议的导弹防御计划。特朗普表示，他的副总统JD万斯、国务卿鲁比奥和特使威特科夫将参与 关于格陵兰岛的谈判。 自特朗普2019年首次表达收购该岛的兴趣以来，丹麦和格陵兰岛在一点上一直很明确：这块领土是非卖 品。 ...

音频由扣子空间生成 "华尔街一哥"、摩根大通首席执行官杰米・戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）于周三公开表示，自己不认同美国总 统特朗普的移民政策制定思路，成为罕见对特朗普这一标志性政策提出公开指责的美国企业领袖。 在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛一场专题讨论中，戴蒙起初对特朗普为维护全球第一大经济体边境安 全所采取的举措表示赞赏。据英国广播公司援引联邦数据报道，2024年10月至2025年9月期间，美国与 墨西哥边境的非法越境数降至50年来的最低水平。 但向来倡导通过移民改革推动美国经济增长的戴蒙，随后话锋一转，显然直指美国移民与海关执法局警 员围捕疑似无证移民的相关视频画面。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 弥漫的恐惧氛围 多年来，戴蒙在年度股东信和媒体采访中，始终将移民制度改革视为推动美国经济实现更高增长的核心 途径之一。 作为这家全球市值最高银行的资深首席执行官，戴蒙此前一直支持基于个人能力的绿卡发放制度，主张 为童年时期被带到美国的移民授予公民身份，并反对限制H-1B签证的相关提案。 周三，戴蒙敦促特朗普为"辛勤工作的人们"开放入籍通道，同时提供"正规的庇护申请"机会。 "我认为他有能力做到这一点， ...

近期，投资者的担忧情绪持续升温。无论是债券收益率走低、股市估值高企，还是特朗普的政策不确定 性，都让他们做出了同一个选择：买入黄金。 黄金取得里程碑式突破的步伐似乎越来越快。在金价突破此前看似遥不可及的每盎司4000美元关口仅三 个月后，如今又站上了5000美元的临界点。相比之下，黄金期货价格从去年3月14日首次突破3000美元/ 盎司关口，到10月站上4000美元/盎司的历史高，耗时半年。 周三，黄金期货价格上涨1.5%，收于每盎司4831.80美元的历史新高。本月以来，金价已累计上涨超500 美元，其中周二单日暴涨171.20美元，创下单日涨幅纪录。此番涨势背后，是特朗普为谋求格陵兰岛控 制权而对欧洲发出的加征关税威胁（后已撤销），以及市场对美联储独立性的担忧加剧。 以下是推动黄金市场走高的五大核心因素： "货币贬值交易" 黄金的最大多头群体中，不乏对美元及其他主要货币走势心存担忧的投资者。他们大举买入这一贵金 属，将其视为能够抵御经济冲击的价值储存工具。 近期，特朗普的一系列举措让投资者的谨慎情绪进一步加剧。就在本月，他批准对委内瑞拉采取军事行 动以推翻马杜罗政权；通过司法部调查向美联储主席鲍威尔施压， ...

高盛集团将其今年年末金价预测上调至每盎司5400美元，理由来自私人投资者和各国央行的需求正日益 增强。 以达恩·斯特鲁伊芬（Daan Struyven）为首的高盛分析师在一份报告中写道，2026年12月的目标价已从 每盎司4900美元上调，预计各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，而随着美联储降息，交易所交易基金 （ETF）的持仓量也将增加。 他们表示，各国央行"已开始通过传统的ETF购买方式，与私人领域投资者争夺有限的黄金供应"。 周三，黄金价格攀升至每盎司4800美元以上的历史新高，延续了急剧涨势。这次飙升重新引发了投资者 之间的辩论：在这辉煌的一年之后，金价还能上涨多少？ 除了高盛，其余市场预测也正变得越来越乐观。 工银标准银行高级大宗商品策略师朱莉娅·杜（Julia Du）认为，金价可能推高至7150美元。 对许多黄金多头而言，地缘政治仍是决定性的背景。MKS PAMP金属策略主管尼基·希尔斯（Nicky Shiels）表示，当前周期并不类似于投机性顶峰。她预计今年金价将达到5400美元。 她说："去年是历史性的一年，对整个贵金属市场来说有点像百年一遇的事件，白银价格基本翻了不止 一番，黄金上涨了60%， ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD's stock price has risen for the seventh consecutive trading day, driven by optimism surrounding its AI server CPU sales [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - KeyBanc analyst John Vinh expects AMD's revenue to exceed expectations in the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, primarily due to strong demand for server CPUs, particularly the latest Turin data center CPU [1] - AMD's server CPU business is projected to grow by at least 50% this year, driven by robust demand, with average selling prices expected to increase by 10% to 15% as large cloud providers secure capacity [1] - Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon has raised AMD's fourth-quarter revenue expectations, citing increased optimism regarding the company's server business momentum, with a projected 30% growth in sales of AMD Epyc processors, including the fifth-generation Turin CPU [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Competitive Landscape - AMD's stock rose nearly 8% on Wednesday, marking the longest consecutive gain since February 19, 2025, although Wall Street's view on AMD remains "divided" due to uncertainties regarding its GPU competitiveness against Nvidia [2] - Investors are focused on AMD's production timeline for its first rack-level solution, Helios, and the progress of the accompanying Instinct MI455 series GPUs, as well as updates on AI-related revenue expectations [2] - AMD has reportedly secured an agreement with OpenAI to begin deploying Helios later this year, but currently, OpenAI is the only significant customer [2][3] Group 3: AI Business Outlook - The narrative surrounding AMD's AI business heavily depends on the progress of its collaboration with OpenAI and its ability to attract more substantial clients for Helios [3] - Short-term pressure on AI prospects may be limited, as AMD is likely to benefit more from strong server demand and market share gains in its core business while waiting for results from its AI chip initiatives [3]