AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 最新公布的通胀数据显示，美联储青睐的通胀指标在去年11月基本符合预期，但这并未为政策制定者提供太多参考依据，这让他们难以确定何时再次降息才 是合适的时机。 美国经济分析局周四报告称，剔除食品和能源后的核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数11月环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%；整体PCE环比上涨0.2%，同比 上涨2.8%，均复合市场预期。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线波动不大。 虽然PCE是美联储首选的通胀指标，但报告的滞后性意味着官员们对此数据的看重程度可能会低于正常情况。 即便如此，这些数据表明通胀仍然具有粘性但保持稳定，并维持在近期水平附近。鉴于更具时效性的去年12月和2026年初的数据尚未出炉，美联储似乎已准 备好保持耐心，并在1月27日至28日的政策会议上维持利率不变。此前他们在2025年底连续三次降息，许多官员指出劳动力市场趋于稳定且通胀风险挥之不 去。 其他同时公布的数据显示美国11月个人支出稳步增长，凸显出消费者在假日购物季开始时的韧性。 去年11月，经通胀调整后的消费者支出连续第二个月增长0.3%。几乎没有迹象表明美国消费者感到疲惫，尽管 ...

Group 1 - President Trump threatens "significant retaliation" against European countries if they sell U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [1] - Trump previously planned to impose tariffs on goods from eight European countries to pressure them regarding Greenland, but this plan has been abandoned [1] - The potential sell-off of U.S. bonds and stocks by Europe could shake financial markets, which have already been unsettled by Trump's pursuit of Greenland [1] Group 2 - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to liquidate $100 million in U.S. Treasury bonds, while Greenland's SISA Pension is considering its investments in U.S. stocks [2] - The strategy of "selling off U.S. assets" may be complex, as most assets are held by private funds rather than government-controlled entities [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin downplays the significance of Denmark's sell-off, stating it does not indicate a broader divestment trend [2]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth in two years [1] - This growth is attributed to strong exports and reduced inventory drag, making it one of the strongest consecutive quarters since the pandemic recovery began in 2021 [1] - Consumer spending, a major growth engine, increased by 3.5% in the last quarter, reflecting the fastest growth in service spending in three years [1] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, favored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.9% in the third quarter [1] - Given the strong economic growth and stable job market, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting [1] Labor Market - Initial jobless claims remained low, with a slight increase of 1,000 to 200,000, which is below expectations [2] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to 1.85 million, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - The four-week moving average of jobless claims dropped to 201,500, the lowest in two years, indicating a stable labor market [2]

美国总统特朗普正式启动了他的"和平委员会"倡议，尽管该机构的成立引发了关键盟友的怨恨和保留意 见，但他仍强力推进这一被他称为将促进地缘政治稳定的项目。 周四，在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间举行的一场庆祝活动上，特朗普试图减轻其中的一些担忧，称该 组织将"与包括联合国在内的许多其他方合作"。 "一旦这个委员会完全组建，我们可以联合联合国做几乎任何事情。你知道，我一直说联合国拥有巨大 的潜力，"特朗普说。 与特朗普一同登台的还有该委员会的创始成员，包括阿根廷总统米莱和匈牙利总理欧尔班，以及来自巴 林、摩洛哥、阿塞拜疆、保加利亚、巴基斯坦、沙特、土耳其、阿联酋和乌兹别克斯坦等一系列国家的 代表。 成员资格问题也让民主盟友感到震惊。特朗普向俄罗斯总统普京发出了邀请，鉴于俄乌冲突仍在持续， 此举引发了愤怒；同时受到邀请的还有白俄罗斯的卢卡申科。 根据媒体报道和官方声明，约有60位领导人受邀加入。受邀者中没有来自撒哈拉以南非洲的国家。 各国领导人与特朗普围坐在一张桌子旁签署文件，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，这使该委员会的宪章"全 面生效"，并使其成为一个"正式的国际组织"。 "和平委员会"也标志着特朗普推动其加沙和平计划进入第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance since early 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, positioning it as a leading sector in the A-share market amid rising prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading oil shipping company, China Merchants Energy Shipping, has seen its stock price surpass the historical high set in 2007, nearly doubling from its low in 2025. Another major player, COSCO Shipping Energy, has also increased by nearly 50% from its 2025 low [5]. - The rise in stock prices for these leading companies aligns closely with the increase in oil shipping rates, which reached a five-year high in the fourth quarter of 2025 after hitting a multi-year low in July 2025 [5][7]. - In 2025, China Merchants Energy Shipping reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%-29%, with the fourth quarter net profit showing a significant increase of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil shipping market is characterized by a cyclical nature, requiring positive changes in both supply and demand to initiate a new cycle. Currently, the supply side is influenced by the age of vessels and operational efficiency, with a significant portion of the fleet being older than 20 years [8][9]. - The global fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is experiencing a decline in overall capacity, with older vessels facing operational inefficiencies and potential exit from compliant markets [9][12]. - On the demand side, the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts and increased production from countries like Brazil and Guyana have positively impacted oil shipping demand, extending average shipping distances and enhancing demand for oil transport [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil shipping industry is showing signs of entering a new upward cycle, supported by a tightening supply and recovering demand. Historical patterns suggest that significant price increases can occur when supply is reduced and demand increases simultaneously [15][19]. - The consolidation within the domestic oil shipping market has led to increased market concentration, with China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy being the top players globally [17][19]. - The current geopolitical landscape emphasizes energy security, which adds intrinsic value to the oil shipping sector, further supported by the cyclical recovery in shipping rates [19].

本周，特朗普威胁要对反对其夺取格陵兰岛控制权的欧洲国家加征关税，这一表态让外国持有者抛售美 国资产的讨论再度浮出水面。不过，特朗普于周三撤销了关税计划，称已就该岛屿问题达成"未来协议 框架"。 彼得森最初的表态是在特朗普软化立场之前做出的，他随后表示，坚持此前关于基金重新评估美国投资 的言论。 若格陵兰养老基金决定抛售美国资产，这将是一项显著转变——毕竟美国股票市场地位举足轻重，摩根 士丹利资本国际全球指数（MSCI World）中约70%为美国股票，其近几十年来的出色表现催生了"美国 例外论"的说法，对几乎所有投资者而言，这都是一个难以忽视的庞大市场。 在欧洲，部分养老金基金本周已宣布抛售美国国债，但暂未完全退出股票市场。丹麦养老基金 AkademikerPension表示，计划月底前清空约1亿美元的美国国债持仓；瑞典最大的私人养老金基金 Alecta自2025年初以来，已抛售了大部分美国国债。 65岁的彼得森承认，该基金持有的美国国债规模微乎其微，即便抛售美国股票，对美国资本市场的实际 影响也十分有限。他还指出，抛售股票的决策比出售美国国债更为复杂。 "这会是一个公平的决定吗？毕竟只有半数美国民众投票支持 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, stated that global oil production needs to more than double, with current global oil supply at 107.4 million barrels per day as per the International Energy Agency [1] - Oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping by 2% to a low of $59.59 per barrel, and Brent crude decreasing by 1.7% to a low of $64.18 per barrel, following President Trump's easing of threats towards Greenland and Iran, which alleviated supply concerns [1][6] - Wright emphasized that the world will still rely on oil for decades, criticizing the EU and California for wasting funds on inefficient green energy policies, and highlighted the legal risks U.S. producers face when exporting natural gas to Europe due to EU regulations [2] Group 2 - The EU agreed to significantly reduce two flagship legislative proposals, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, under pressure from businesses and governments [3] - Wright noted that the increase in U.S. natural gas production and investments in LNG export terminals have allowed the U.S. to replace the significant reduction in Russian gas imports to Europe following the Ukraine conflict [4] - California's oil production has nearly halved over the past decade, with current daily production at 300,000 barrels, down from a peak of 1.1 million barrels in 1985, and Wright criticized California's energy policies for their negative impact on residents' quality of life [5]

Group 1 - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced a breakthrough regarding Greenland without discussing territorial sovereignty with US President Trump, shifting focus to broader security issues in the Arctic region [1] - Discussions are centered on the practical significance of regional security and preventing Russian access to Greenland, which is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark [1] - Stoltenberg emphasized the need for increased attention and resources for Arctic protection, particularly concerning the opening of new shipping routes [1] Group 2 - Trump's growing interest in controlling Greenland has shocked transatlantic allies and sparked discussions about the potential disintegration of the post-World War II Atlantic alliance [2] - Stoltenberg initiated a coordinated effort to facilitate an agreement, which aligns with a framework discussed during a meeting between the Danish delegation and US officials [2] - The agreement involves forming a working group to address US security concerns, indicating a shift from previous tensions over tariffs [3] Group 3 - The negotiations may update a 1951 agreement that grants the US military broad freedom to defend Greenland under NATO's framework, highlighting the territory's strategic importance in Arctic interests [3] - Trump's strategy to protect Greenland from Russian threats has received support from NATO leaders, providing European leaders with a respite amid ongoing tariff threats [3] - Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reiterated that sovereignty is a non-negotiable issue for Copenhagen, emphasizing the need to respect international law and sovereignty [3]

Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, citing increased demand from private investors and central banks [1] - Central banks are expected to purchase 60 tons of gold monthly, and ETF gold holdings are projected to expand as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that gold is becoming the biggest challenger to the dollar, with its share in central bank reserves rising from approximately 14% to 25%-28% [2] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Corpay's chief market strategist indicated that Trump's tariff threats led to a "sell America" effect, lowering the dollar's value and increasing prices of safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Angeles Investments' CIO stated that while diversifying assets outside the U.S. is reasonable, there is no intention to abandon U.S. assets due to strong corporate profitability [4] - Citigroup reported that South Korea may introduce a new fiscal stimulus plan worth approximately $68 billion to address economic growth imbalances [5] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - HSBC economists suggested that if the Bank of Japan's governor returns to a cautious stance, the yen may face new downward pressure, potentially leading to inflation concerns [6] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that there is no urgent reason for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again, as the effects of monetary policy changes take time to manifest [7] - Singapore's OCBC Bank indicated that clearer communication from the Bank of Japan regarding wage growth expectations could signal earlier interest rate hikes [8] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent rise in the USD/CNY exchange rate may create an ideal buying opportunity for U.S. Treasuries by March [5] - CICC pointed out that the current volatility in U.S. and Japanese bond markets reflects global liquidity fluctuations, suggesting potential systemic risks [6] - CICC also mentioned that the ETF market has ample growth potential, although growth rates may slow this year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing culture of self-censorship among executives in the financial industry due to the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration, highlighting concerns about potential repercussions for speaking out against the government [1][2][3]. Group 1: Executive Concerns - Executives from major investment firms are expressing concerns about the impact of rapidly changing U.S. policies on global markets, particularly in light of Trump's controversial actions [1]. - There is a notable reluctance among executives to publicly address sensitive topics related to U.S. policies, with some advising teams to avoid controversial comments regarding U.S.-Europe relations [2][3]. - The fear of backlash from the Trump administration is leading to a culture of caution, where analysts worry that critical reports could hinder their firms' ability to operate in the U.S. [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Research and Reporting - Deutsche Bank's recent report predicting a decline in European willingness to hold U.S. assets due to Trump's actions has led to attempts by the bank's CEO to distance the firm from the report [1][4]. - Analysts are increasingly modifying their reports to avoid potential criticism from the Trump administration, with some even redacting parts of their analyses to mitigate risks [4]. - The emphasis on producing independent and impactful research is being overshadowed by the need to avoid unnecessary provocations that could embarrass the government [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Danish and Swedish pension funds are withdrawing from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over U.S. policies, budget deficits, and national debt unpredictability [5]. - The actions of these funds reflect a broader trend of caution among international investors regarding U.S. assets amid the current political climate [5].