AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 当AI竞赛全面升温，从OpenAI与谷歌的攻防易位，到数据中心之争、机器人落地、裁员阴影、工作 被"代理"、隐私被持续监听，再到无人驾驶悄然扩张，技术不再只是效率工具，而正在重塑资本、劳动 力与社会秩序。 他说，"大语言模型的下一个前沿是物理世界。" 不过，需要明确的是，明年的这些展示仍将只是演示。要销售一旦出错就可能对人们的家造成物理破坏 的技术，还需要进行更多测试。 泡沫回落 2026年或许不会迎来戏剧性的失控时刻，但一连串看似温和却深刻的变化，正在把AI推向一个更现 实、也更具风险的阶段。以下是美国知名科技杂志《连线》对2026年的多项预测。 机器人演示无处不在 到2026年，从国际消费电子展到亚马逊硬件发布会，各大科技会议很可能都会围绕AI驱动的机器人展 开。多年来，谷歌等大型科技公司一直试图通过反复练习，训练机器人完成家务任务。 但如今，新一轮炒作正在出现。像ChatGPT和Gemini所使用的那类AI模型，正被整合进机器人中，希望 它们在更少训练的情况下，以更高准确度完成诸如叠衣服之类的家务。 去年9月，谷歌发布了一段视频，展示一台机器人根 ...

"不确定性仍然是全球经济的一个决定性特征，"世界黄金协会高级市场策略师Joe Cavatoni表示。"在这 种环境下，黄金作为战略分散工具和稳定源变得越来越具有吸引力。" 对于一些投资者来说，黄金的软肋在于它不像债券那样支付利息。但当美联储像过去几个月那样降低利 率时，美债收益率往往会下降，从而使黄金更具吸引力。 今年年初，黄金期货交易价格约为每盎司2640美元。本周一，金价攀升至每盎司4500美元以上的历史新 高。摩根大通的分析师预计，2026年金价将升至每盎司5000美元以上。 黄金今年71%的涨幅远远超过了仅上涨18%的标普500指数。在2024年，黄金期货上涨了27%，而标普指 数上涨了24%。 对美联储在2026年进行部分降息的预期正在支撑金价上涨。美元走软也助推了金价，因为这使得购买黄 金对国际投资者来说相对更便宜。 黄金珠宝商和拥有黄金首饰的人正从更高的价格中受益。而且，这场淘金热不仅仅是由美国人在好市多 抢购金条推动的，更是各国按吨购买黄金的结果。央行与地缘政治 黄金正迎来自1979年以来表现最好的一年。在纽约交易的黄金期货今年已飙升近71%，有望创下46年来 的最大年度涨幅。上一次黄金表现如 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by President Trump in addressing American consumers' concerns about affordability, despite low gasoline prices [1][2] - According to AAA, the average price of unleaded gasoline in December reached its lowest level of the year at $2.85 per gallon, which is $0.18 cheaper than last year [1] - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since April, indicating increasing discontent with Trump's economic management [1] Group 2 - Jason Furman highlights that consumers are primarily focused on rising grocery prices, which have increased nearly 30% over the past five years, complicating the economic outlook [2] - The U.S. economy grew at its strongest pace in two years, with a GDP growth of 4.3%, surpassing analysts' expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% a year ago [2] - Furman expresses uncertainty about the "K-shaped economy," noting that while low prices persist, wage growth remains strong, although the lowest income quartile has seen a decline in wage growth from 7.5% to about 3.5% [2][3] Group 3 - Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, connects economic growth and rising unemployment to the "K-shaped economy," suggesting that companies are achieving growth without hiring, which may be exacerbated by AI replacing jobs [3] - The current productivity gains are largely attributed to companies being hesitant to hire and trying to operate more efficiently [3]

这位经济学家补充说，他的团队预计特朗普政府在2026年中期选举临近之际不会实施新的关税。然而， 分析师们也强调，他们认为企业并未结束涨价。 该行维持其基准观点，即现有关税将在2026年初将核心通胀推高至3%，消费品成本中已经可以看到迹 象。 Gapen写道，"从6月到9月的月度CPI通胀率来看，受关税直接影响较大的CPI和PCE分项都出现了明显的 增长。" 摩根士丹利的分析还发现，企业已经开始收回在2025年初因受关税影响而损失的部分资金。这是一个充 满希望的发展，特别是因为该行预测许多公司可以在提高价格的同时仍保留大部分客户群。 美国目前的就业市场非常残酷，而且人们越来越担心2026年可能会出现更多裁员。然而，摩根士丹利表 示，许多公司或许能够避免不得不削减人手。 该行首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen及其团队在周二写道，美国经济或许能够避免大规模裁员，但这 只有在公司继整个2025年提价后，在2026年继续提高价格的情况下才有可能。 裁员增加和通胀粘性是2025年的美国两大宏观主题。根据Gapen及其团队的说法，随着关税压力的显 现，企业在今年早些时候选择了减少招聘和缩减人员编制，以避免提高价格。 ...

Economic Outlook - The Trump administration projects the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 3%, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can continue to lower interest rates in this environment [2][7] - Joe Lavorgna, an advisor to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, indicates that the current economic growth is driven by deregulation and growth policies, alongside a boost in capital spending, resulting in a non-inflationary prosperity [2][7] Federal Reserve Policy - Lavorgna emphasizes that if the economy continues to grow at 3% next year, it would lead to lower inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further [2][4] - Trump expresses a desire for the next Federal Reserve chair to lower rates if the economy performs well, criticizing the current market reaction to good news due to fears of immediate rate hikes [3][8] Investment Trends - Despite strong overall GDP growth in Q3, business investment growth has slowed to 2.8%, and equipment investment growth has decreased to 5.4%, with non-residential structural investment contracting at a rate of 6.3% [9] - Lavorgna attributes the weakness in structural investment to the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, suggesting that lower rates could lead to more factory construction and higher-paying jobs [4][10] AI and GDP Impact - Lavorgna argues that the impact of AI on GDP data is overestimated, as much of the spending is B2B and does not contribute to GDP [5][10] - He forecasts that Q4 growth could reach 3%, which would bring the annual growth rate slightly below 3%, indicating a strong economic performance [5][10]

原田泰表示，他支持高市早苗负责任的积极财政政策，并预计随着高压经济中的劳动力短缺有助于提高 工人的报酬，日本的生产力将得到提高。不过，这位知名的再通胀主义者表达了担忧，认为随着通胀站 稳脚跟，税率级别也需要调整以适应名义收入水平的上升。 一位前委员表示，日本央行在提高利率时应采取谨慎态度，同时政府应竭尽全力激活经济。 前日本央行委员原田泰（Yutaka Harada）在接受采访时表示，高市早苗政府应充分利用财政、货币和税 收政策来刺激需求，实现"高压经济"。 "操之过急可能导致过度紧缩，"原田泰在谈到央行加息对经济的影响时说。他将持续的通胀部分归因于 包括米价上涨在内的供应侧因素，并补充说，进一步加息可能对这种成本驱动的价格压力影响有限。 由于认为经济正在接近其价格稳定目标，日本央行上周五将借贷成本提高至30年来的最高水平。虽然实 现该目标的进展表明央行和政府可以从刺激经济中抽身，但高市早苗为了确保更强劲的增长继续大幅增 加支出，这种立场让一些投资者感到不安。 "我们需要什么支出应该在初始预算中处理，"这位前委员说。"我们需要解决额外预算中正在进行的粉 饰门面的问题。" 原田泰还敦促日本央行在关于中性利率（即 ...

北京市进一步优化房地产政策 市场盘点 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国官员暗示：更希望以制裁手段而非军事行动来实现对委内瑞拉的目标 泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点内容 俄罗斯希望对美国的和平计划最新提案作出修改 日本计划将2026财年超长期国债发行量削减至17年来最低水平 八部门联合发布21条举措，金融支持加快西部陆海新通道建设 央行货币政策委员会召开四季度例会：要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 周三，美元指数持续震荡，但在欧盘时段反弹，并一度重回98关口，最终收涨0.06%，报97.95；基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.135%，对美联储政策利 率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.514%。 现货黄金在亚盘将历史新高刷新至4520美元上方，随后持续回落，盘中一度大跌超70美元，但美盘收复部分失地，最终收跌0.12%，报4479.47美元/盎司； 现货白银将历史新高刷新至72.60美元上方，随后有所回落，最终收涨0.5%，报71.81美元/盎司。 因投资者权衡美国经济增长前景，并评估来 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普已将美联储主席候选人范围缩小至四人，华尔街共识认为，白宫顾问凯文·哈塞特 （Kevin Hassett）将获得这一职位。 但至于谁"应该"获得这一职位，华尔街许多人表示：绝非哈塞特。 为何会存在这种分歧？让哈塞特成为热门人选的原因，恰恰是批评者担忧的焦点——与特朗普关系如此 密切的人，无法成为一名独立的美联储主席。 然而，此次美联储领导层更迭颇具特殊性：总统希望任命一位不符合传统"独立"概念的美联储主席。他 希望有人支持其整体经济议程，这意味着要大幅降息。 特朗普在周二的社交媒体帖子中明确表达了这一点。他赞扬了强劲的三季度经济增长报告，随后哀叹 道，市场往往会在利好消息发布时抛售，因为预期美联储会为避免通胀而加息。 事实上，周二市场并未下跌。美联储也从未因利好消息而加息。过去两年，美国经济增长稳健，股市屡 创纪录，而美联储始终在降息。这是因为美联储认为，与失业问题相比，通胀问题不那么值得担忧。 但对特朗普来说，这还不够。"我希望我（任命）的新任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降息，而不是毫 无理由地摧毁市场。我想要一个几十年来从未有过的强劲市场 ...

Core Insights - Retail investors have become the main driving force behind the stock market rally, with expected record inflows into the U.S. stock market in 2025 supported by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][9] - Retail investment in the U.S. stock market has increased by 53% year-over-year to $3,020 billion in 2025, surpassing the peak of $2,700 billion during the retail trading frenzy in 2021 by 14% [1][4] - Retail trading volume accounted for 20% to 25% of total trading this year, peaking at approximately 35% in April [1][4] Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been actively buying quality stocks during market sell-offs, notably after the "Liberation Day tariffs" announcement by former President Trump, which contributed to the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high with a year-to-date increase of nearly 17% [4] - The rise of low-cost, commission-free brokers like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers has made it easier and cheaper for ordinary Americans to enter the stock market, leading to a steady increase in retail participation [4] - Retail investors are increasingly favoring exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track stock indices, cryptocurrencies, and commodities, attracted by their advantages such as all-day trading and tax efficiency [6] Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict that the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will continue to boost the market and maintain retail investor momentum into 2026 [9] - The frequency and duration of "meme stock frenzies" have decreased, indicating that retail trading decisions are becoming more informed [7][8] - Despite the current enthusiasm, there are indications that retail investor interest in market volatility may be declining, and the influx of retail funds in 2026 may not exceed the record set in 2025 due to a potential shift towards diversified investment portfolios [10]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is optimistic as 2026 approaches, with major indices like S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recording solid returns despite some policy-induced fluctuations in 2025 [1] - Analysts believe that the upcoming "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will contribute to a large-scale stimulus plan, but maintaining growth conditions is becoming increasingly challenging [1] - The U.S. economy has managed to withstand potential negative impacts from tariffs, immigration policies, inflation, and employment issues, with employers finding a balance despite declining corporate confidence [1] Group 2 - In the AI sector, there is a delicate balance between opportunities and excessive optimism, with large tech companies' annual capital expenditures projected to rise from $150 billion in 2023 to potentially over $500 billion by 2026 [2] - JPMorgan has identified five indicators to assess the risk of irrational exuberance in the AI sector, including capacity, credit availability, and risk concealment [2][3] - The report concludes that while the elements of a market bubble are present, the risk of forming a bubble in the future is greater than the current risk of being at a bubble peak [3] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank highlights that 2026 will not be a mundane year, with internal political divisions in Europe and the potential resurgence of global trade wars posing significant challenges [4] - Concerns about the labor market's precariousness have increased the probability of recession, with recent job growth in the U.S. showing signs of weakness [4] - Goldman Sachs agrees that the labor market is a major vulnerability for the U.S. economy, which could lead to recession, although they remain optimistic about avoiding it [4] Group 4 - Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.8% by the end of 2026, with short-term inflation pressures arising from tariffs and one-time price adjustments related to events like the World Cup [5] - The K-shaped economy is emerging, where wealthier consumers are less affected, while low-income households are financially precarious, indicating a divergence in consumer experiences [6] - Despite various challenges, the overall economic outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of resilience in the face of rising tariffs and labor supply disruptions [6]