黄金与白银双双再创历史新高，现货白银周二晚间历史性地站上了70美元/盎司——远远超过了每桶原 油的价格。 尽管白银此前已开启上涨态势——年内涨幅超140%——但今年两个关键触发点让其涨势驶入快车道。 现代经济的稳定性依赖于公众对货币价值的信任，这一点无论如何强调都不为过。而如今，这种信任正 逐渐动摇。虽尚未陷入危机，但各国央行已收到警告：若在金银暴涨之际仍保持自满，那么市场可能会 抛弃它们。 值得注意的是，上一次白银价格如此高于原油，还是在上世纪80年代初。随后发生的是恶性通胀、利率 飙升、市场暴跌以及经济衰退。这一未来并非注定到来，但类似的财政危机如今已成为极现实的可能。 其一，是美联储主席鲍威尔8月在杰克逊霍尔的讲话，该讲话释放出央行将转向宽松货币政策的信号； 其二，是纽约联储主席威廉姆斯11月的讲话，为美联储12月降息奠定了基础。在两人讲话间隔期间，白 银上涨25%；而在威廉姆斯讲话后的短时间内，白银又飙升40%。 本文观点来自剑桥大学的政治经济学家、约翰内斯堡高级研究所的高级研究员约翰 · 拉普利（ John Rapley ），其著作包括《帝国为何衰落：罗马、美国与西方的未来》以及《货币诸神的黄昏：作 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in Q3, driven by resilient consumer and business spending as well as more stable trade policies, with an annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3% [1] - The actual personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for Q3 was recorded at 3.5%, exceeding the forecast of 2.7% and the previous value of 2.5% [1] - The core PCE price index for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 2.9%, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 2.6% [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending remains strong, with significant investment in data centers, although there is a paradox of economic growth without job creation [3] - The surge in automobile sales, driven by consumers purchasing before anticipated tariff increases, contributed to the economic growth in Q3, but this peak is expected to have passed [4] Future Economic Outlook - Economists predict a weak economic growth in Q4, potentially stagnating due to the impact of a government shutdown on spending and investment [3] - The overall GDP growth rate for the year is expected to be around 2%, considered robust but not strong [5] - Looking ahead to 2026, a moderate rebound in the economy is anticipated, supported by tax refunds for households and potential overturning of global tariffs by the Supreme Court [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to close quietly before the Christmas holiday, with the S&P 500 index showing a modest increase of 1.6% in December, indicating a need for a boost [1] Group 1: Gold and Precious Metals Performance - December saw gold prices rise by 9% and silver by 36%, with both metals poised to potentially reach historical highs [1] - Yardeni Research has raised its gold price targets, predicting it will reach $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of next year, with a long-term target of $10,000 by the end of 2029 [1][2] Group 2: Market Predictions and Correlations - The new gold price target from Yardeni Research exceeds the most optimistic market expectations, such as JPMorgan's forecast of $5,055 per ounce by the end of next year [2] - There is a noted negative correlation between the S&P 500 index and gold prices in the short term, but both are expected to follow the same upward trend in the long term [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Venezuela relations and renewed attacks by Ukraine on Russian ports, are contributing to the rise in gold prices [4] - Concerns about central banks potentially diluting debt through money printing are also seen as a factor driving gold's strength [4][5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Market Implications - There are expectations that many American households may receive government rebates of $1,000 to $2,000, which could lead to a significant increase in the federal budget deficit early next year [6] - This potential increase in the deficit may push bond yields higher and trigger a pullback in the U.S. stock market [6]

Group 1: Precious Metals and Geopolitical Risks - International gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, adding uncertainty to an already strained geopolitical landscape [1] - Despite the current high prices, analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of these levels, suggesting that expectations for Venezuelan safe-haven flows to push gold higher may be overly optimistic [1] Group 2: Currency and Fiscal Policies - Japanese authorities may struggle to support the yen through foreign exchange interventions unless fiscal policy risks are effectively managed, as concerns grow over potential excessive spending in the upcoming 2026 budget [2] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken further in 2026, with a projected decline of about 5%, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement several rate cuts, contrasting with the European Central Bank's likely stable rates [3] Group 3: Automotive and Technology Investments - The approval of L3 autonomous driving models in China marks a significant step towards commercialization, highlighting investment opportunities in automotive intelligence and technology [3] - The global liquid cooling market is projected to reach $21.8 billion by 2027, driven by the increasing demand for energy-efficient data center solutions amid rising AI server power consumption [4][5] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The A-share market is entering a critical window for "spring excitement" as external uncertainties diminish, with a focus on technology growth sectors such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics [6] - The ongoing power capacity shortage in the electricity system is expected to support long-term development in energy storage solutions [7] Group 5: International Trade and Tariffs - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping duties on Chinese semi-steel tires does not change the trend of Chinese tire manufacturers seeking stable overseas production capacity to fulfill EU orders [9] - Liquid cooling solutions are becoming increasingly important in addressing the "power shortage" issues faced by AI data centers, with significant advantages over traditional cooling methods [10][11]

在地缘政治波动、全球货币宽松和市场避险需求高企等因素的影响下，2025年大宗商品走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"。贵金属单边走强，而能源价格则 持续低迷。以下是IG分析师分享的2026年大宗商品的展望报告。黄金：2025年创纪录上涨后，涨势能否延续？ 结构性需求 黄金带着历史性涨势进入2026年——但有趣的是，这一交易似乎仍未过度拥挤。即便在2024年和2025年连续突破纪录，黄金常被描述为"超买"，却几乎从未 被贴上"过度持有"的标签。而这一差异至关重要。机构持仓仍有扩张空间，意味着此轮涨势并非由过度投机驱动，而是依托尚未达峰的结构性需求。 2024-2025年黄金涨势的很大一部分源于政策——更准确地说，是政策不确定性。美国在进入2026年之际，政府支出高企、局部通胀持续，实际收益率不断 走低。再叠加美元走弱，过去两年支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍完好无损。 2025年的市场分化清晰印证了黄金对宏观经济的敏感性。6月至12月，随着实际收益率走低，黄金飙升至历史新高。这种反向关系仍是2026年黄金走势的最 大驱动因素之一。 图1：黄金vs实际收益率 各国央行仍是黄金结构性行情背后最强大的推动力之一。多个经济体的黄金 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $12,000 per ton, driven by severe mine shutdowns and trade disruptions related to President Trump's tariff agenda [1] - The price of copper has increased approximately 37% this year, with expectations for the largest annual gain since 2009 [1] - Supply disruptions from mines in the Americas, Africa, and Asia have raised warnings of a significant supply shortage, contributing to the price surge [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that 2025 will be a year of severe supply constraints due to operational challenges at several large mines, indicating a clear state of supply shortage in the market [2] - Demand from high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence is expected to surge, further supporting bullish forecasts for copper prices [2] - Citigroup suggests that under a "bull market scenario," copper prices could reach $15,000, attracting more aggressive investment [2]

Group 1 - The core concern is that inflation in the U.S. may spiral out of control, exceeding the Federal Reserve's ability to manage it [1][2] - The stock market is currently overvalued, indicating a potential crash back to reality [2] - The M2 money supply has surged by $3.5 trillion over the past five years, which is a critical indicator for inflation outlook [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to an acceleration in inflation despite not fully controlling it [2][3] - The end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve is expected to loosen financial conditions, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [3] - Relaxation of credit rules in early next year will enhance banks' ability to expand the money supply, further exacerbating inflation [3] Group 3 - Increased issuance of short-term government bonds by the U.S. Treasury to finance deficits will also contribute to rising money supply and inflation [3] - The technology sector, particularly driven by the AI boom, is facing significant overvaluation risks, with warnings of a potential market correction [4] - Historical parallels are drawn to the internet bubble, suggesting that AI companies may face similar challenges if growth expectations are not met [4]

Group 1 - The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index has risen by 27% this year, marking the first time since 2020 that Asian markets have outperformed both US and European benchmarks in the same year [1][3] - The strong performance of Asian markets reflects an increasing attractiveness for investors seeking higher growth as the economies in Europe and the US slow down [3][4] - The broad-based rally includes double-digit gains in stock markets across Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China, with South Korea's Kospi index surging by 71%, making it one of the best-performing major markets globally [3][4] Group 2 - In China, the stock market is experiencing its strongest year since 2020, driven by the AI boom, which has rekindled investor interest in the tech sector [4] - The optimism surrounding emerging markets, particularly in China, is bolstered by a renewed focus on technology stocks, with expectations for continued growth through 2026 [4][5] - Despite potential risks such as a strengthening dollar and signs of crowded trading in AI-related stocks, the overall trend in the region is viewed as the beginning of a long-term valuation re-rating cycle [4][5] Group 3 - The weakening dollar has enhanced the attractiveness of Asian assets for dollar-based investors, with most Asian currencies also appreciating [6] - The offshore Chinese yuan is nearing its highest level in over a year, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen due to expectations of tightening monetary policy [6] - The Asian dollar-denominated investment-grade bond index has outperformed its US counterpart and is on track for its largest annual gain since 2019, supported by strong fundamentals and a controlled level of bond issuance [6][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, precious metals emerged as the biggest winners, while traditional "safe-haven" investments performed poorly amid market turmoil, conflicts, and concerns over an AI bubble [1] - The global economy showed strong growth, with politicians advocating for loose monetary policies, leading to a decline in recession fears and a surge in AI enthusiasm, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - The commodity index performed poorly due to an oversupply of crude oil, with oil prices dropping by 20% year-on-year, currently at about half of the previous highs [1] Group 2: Defense Sector Performance - For investors concerned about global conflicts, the best investment option was the defense sector, with U.S. aerospace and defense stocks rising by 36% and European counterparts increasing by 55% as Germany and Europe accelerated military rearmament [1] Group 3: Bond and Defensive Asset Performance - Most traditional hedging tools and safe assets underperformed this year, with global "risk-free" government bond indices declining by approximately 1% and total returns slightly exceeding 6% [2] - The Bloomberg Multiverse index, which includes government, supranational, agency, and corporate bonds, saw a price increase of about 1% and total returns close to 7% [2] Group 4: Stock Market Insights - The MSCI All-Country Stock Index's performance was more than double that of government bonds, indicating a strong recovery in the stock market [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 15% due to the boost from large tech stocks and AI themes, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks by more than double [4] - Defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and financials saw gains over 10%, but still lagged behind major indices, while the consumer staples sector had a meager increase of about 2% [4] Group 5: Currency Performance - Traditionally safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc underperformed, with the yen dropping approximately 4% against its major trading partners despite initial gains [7] - The Swiss franc maintained its early-year gains, becoming one of the few standout safe-haven assets alongside gold and silver [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 12% during the year's most turbulent months, raising questions about its status as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 6: Volatility and Investment Strategies - Strategies involving options and volatility indices failed to yield profits in 2025, with the VIX closing down 2 points from the beginning of the year [9] - The MOVE index for bond market volatility was less than two-thirds of its initial level, indicating a decline in market volatility [9] - Overall, overly cautious investment strategies did not prove profitable this year [10]

特朗普周日任命路易斯安那州州长杰夫·兰德里（Jeff Landry）为格陵兰特使，此举引发了丹麦和格陵兰 对华盛顿觊觎这座富含矿产的北极岛屿的新一轮批评。 特朗普一直主张将格陵兰岛并入美国，理由是其战略重要性和矿产资源。于2024年1月上任州长的兰德 里公开支持这一想法。 "我们需要格陵兰岛是为了国家安全，而不是为了矿产……如果你看看格陵兰岛，看看海岸线上下，到 处都是俄罗斯等国船只。我们需要它来保障国家安全。我们必须拥有它，"特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩 告诉记者，并补充说兰德里希望"带头冲锋"。 丹麦首相弗雷德里克森和格陵兰总理尼尔森早些时候在联合声明中表示，格陵兰属于格陵兰人。 "你不能吞并另一个国家。即使以国际安全为借口也不行，"他们说。"格陵兰属于格陵兰人，美国不得 接管格陵兰。" 兰德里则感谢特朗普，他表示："很荣幸能担任……这个志愿职位，让格陵兰成为美国的一部分。这绝 不会影响我作为路易斯安那州州长的职位！" 美国总统特朗普周一重申，为了国家安全，美国需要格陵兰岛，并表示他为这个北极岛屿任命的特使 将"带头冲锋"。 格陵兰岛是丹麦的前殖民地，人口约5.7万，前者根据2009年的一项协议才拥有宣布独立 ...