伊朗周一在多个地区和城市举行实弹导弹演习，伊朗官员们表示，军方将坚定不移地保卫国家，其导弹 计划完全是防御性的。 此前，Axios报道称，"据三位知情的以色列和美国消息人士透露，以色列官员上周末警告特朗普政府， 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的导弹演习可能是为了打击以色列做准备。" 半官方的法尔斯通讯社证实，伊朗军方在德黑兰、伊斯法罕、马什哈德、赫拉马巴德和马哈巴德等多个 地点观察到了导弹测试。视频也在广泛流传，显示导弹划破长空。 "伊朗的防御能力绝不是一个可以讨论的问题，"伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃周一表示。此时正值与以色列 关系高度紧张之际，以色列曾谴责伊朗的弹道导弹计划。 考虑到以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普几天前证实，他们计划于12月29日在佛罗里达州的海湖 庄园会面，这一时机耐人寻味。 预计内塔尼亚胡将向特朗普施压，要求其批准对伊朗弹道导弹基地进行新的打击，以色列称这些基地对 整个地区构成威胁。美国不太可能直接支持这一计划，特别是在其目光聚焦于委内瑞拉之际。 所有这些都引发了担忧，即以色列可能会将伊朗新的试射视为直接威胁，毕竟在6月为期12天的战争期 间，数百枚伊朗导弹和无人机曾如雨点般落在以色列城市和基地。 ...

Nemo.Money的一位分析师表示，"短期内的支撑来自美国和委内瑞拉之间地缘政治紧张局势的加剧……上周金价一直徘徊在略低于纪录高位的位置，因此在 本周成交量较少的假日市场，这看起来像是在近期看涨盘整之后的一次简单的教科书式突破，黄金多头明年的目标明显是5000美元。" 黄金今年已上涨70%，这波火热的涨势得到了各国央行大量购买和黄金ETF资金流入的支撑。这种金属有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。根据世界黄 金协会的数据，今年除5月外，黄金ETF的总持仓量每个月都在增加。 美国总统特朗普重塑全球贸易的激进举措，以及他对美联储独立性的威胁在今年早些时候为这波贵金属牛市"火上浇油"。其中，投资者也发挥了极其重要的 作用，部分原因是受到所谓"货币贬值交易"的刺激，即出于对债务水平膨胀导致价值随时间被侵蚀的担忧，资金从主权债券及其计价货币中撤出。 金价从10月份4381美元的前期高点回落后迅速反弹（当时涨势被视为拥挤和过热），目前正将涨幅延续到明年。高盛等多家银行预测价格将在2026年继续上 涨，并发布了每盎司4900美元的基本情景预测，且存在上行风险。 因投资者正在权衡不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势以及美国将进一 ...

宁波华翔：华翔启源与大寰机器人签订战略合作协议在灵巧手的研发等领域加强合作 宁波华翔公告，2025年12月22日，宁波华翔电子股份有限公司子公司宁波华翔启源科技有限公司与深圳 市大寰机器人科技有限公司共同签订了《战略合作协议》，为加快建设通用机器人产业，推动通用机器 人供应链示范和产品创新双驱动，本着依法合规、优势互补、友好协商、互利共赢的原则，双方拟在通 用人形机器人灵巧手的研发、制造和销售等领域加强合作。本协议无需提交公司董事会或者股东大会审 议，公司将根据后续合作业务的进展情况依法依规及时履行相应的决策程序及信息披露义务。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 12月22日，旭升集团实际控制人变更为广州市人民政府；凌云光拟不超过500万美元认购智谱香港 IPO；华翔启源与大寰机器人签订战略合作协议，在灵巧手的研发等领域加强合作…… 以下是盘后公告精选： 旭升集团：实际控制人变更为广州市人民政府股票复牌 旭升集团公告，公司控股股东、实际控制人徐旭东及其一致行动人正在筹划涉及所持有公司股份转让事 宜，该事项可能导致公司控制权变更。2025年12月22日，徐旭东、陈兴方、旭晟控股、旭日实业与广州 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that uncertainty in tariff policies and strong demand from ETFs and central banks will push gold prices above $4,000 per ounce by 2025, with potential to exceed $5,055 by the end of 2026 due to new demand from Chinese insurance companies and the cryptocurrency sector [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Projections - Morgan Stanley expects the gold bull market to continue into 2026, driven by strong demand factors, with prices projected to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [2][3]. - The average gold price in Q3 2025 is estimated at $3,458 per ounce, with a quarterly demand influx of approximately $109 billion, significantly higher than previous quarters [3]. - The bank forecasts that central banks will purchase an average of 585 tons of gold per quarter in 2026, contributing to price increases [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Central bank gold purchases are expected to remain high, with a projected total of 755 tons in 2026, despite a decrease from the previous three years' average of over 1,000 tons [4]. - The report indicates that if central banks with gold reserves below 10% increase their holdings to that level at a price of $4,000 per ounce, it would require approximately $335 billion to purchase about 2,600 tons of gold [7]. - Brazil and South Korea are highlighted as countries actively increasing their gold reserves, indicating ongoing central bank demand [7]. Group 3: Investor Demand - Investor demand for gold is anticipated to remain strong, with ETF inflows projected at around 250 tons in 2026, and demand for gold bars and coins expected to exceed 1,200 tons annually [8][11]. - The share of gold in total managed assets is expected to rise from 2.8% to potentially 4%-5% in the coming years, reflecting a structural trend towards diversification into gold [11]. - The report suggests that even a small shift of 0.5% of foreign dollar assets into gold could significantly increase demand, potentially pushing prices to $6,000 per ounce [11]. Group 4: Price Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's price forecasts for gold in 2026 are as follows: Q1 at $4,440, Q2 at $4,655, Q3 at $4,860, and Q4 at $5,055, with expectations of reaching $5,400 by the end of 2027 [12].

乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一表示，与美国和欧洲国家进行的旨在结束这场持续近四年的俄乌冲突的谈 判"非常接近取得实际成果"。 美方20点计划摆上桌面 泽连斯基表示，谈判代表一直在制定一份由美国特使提出的20点计划，该计划在初稿被乌克兰人和欧洲 人批评过于偏向俄罗斯后，已经讨论了数周。 俄罗斯谈判代表、总统普京的投资特使德米特里耶夫也在佛罗里达与美国官员举行了单独会谈。 乌克兰和俄罗斯官员均表示，他们的团队将于周一回国汇报讨论结果。 "这一切看起来相当有价值……这里重要的是，这是我们（乌克兰）和美国共同的工作。这表明我们非 常接近取得实际成果，"泽连斯基在一次乌克兰外交官集会上说道。 由高级官员乌梅罗夫率领的乌克兰谈判代表以及来自欧洲的代表，已经与美国特使举行了一系列会议， 包括最近几天在佛罗里达举行的会议。 "这其中并非一切都很理想，但计划确实存在，"他说。 美方团队由美国总统特朗普的特使威特科夫及其女婿库什纳率领。 同样在讨论中的还有乌克兰一直在寻求的安全保障，以防在战斗停止后俄罗斯采取任何未来的军事行 动，以及乌克兰的经济复苏计划。 泽连斯基在随后的晚间视频讲话中表示，关键问题是确定美国是否能够"从俄罗斯那里得到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events, economic policies, and commodity prices, with notable movements in stock indices, oil prices, and precious metals [3][4][5][6]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.47%, closing at 98.27, while the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.166% and the 2-year yield at 3.511% [3]. - Gold prices surged over 2%, reaching a new historical high of $4443.69 per ounce, while silver also hit a record high, closing at $62.03 per ounce [3][8]. - WTI crude oil rose by 2.48%, closing at $57.88 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 2.28%, closing at $60.65 per barrel, due to concerns over oil supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia [4][8]. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets continued their upward trend, with the Dow Jones up 0.47%, S&P 500 up 0.64%, and Nasdaq up 0.52%. Notable stock movements included Oracle rising by 3% and Nvidia and Tesla each gaining over 1% [4]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.43%, with significant gains in the optical communication sector and gold stocks [5]. - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.69%, with strong performances in sectors such as high-bandwidth memory and storage chips [6]. Economic Policies and Developments - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is evolving, with a noted decrease in the necessity for a 50 basis point cut, as indicated by Fed Governor Milan [13]. - The European Union plans to extend economic sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026 [13]. - The Chinese government is advancing legislation to support digital and green trade, as well as implementing a one-time credit repair policy [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces risks of economic recession unless interest rates are lowered further next year, according to Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve Board [2] - Miran has noted that the necessity for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points has diminished, although he still advocates for a more accommodative policy stance due to rising unemployment [2] - Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, and the need for another large cut may be less urgent as the Fed approaches a phase of more precise management of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - This month, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding future policy directions, with most expecting only one more rate cut next year [3] - Concerns about inflation persist, as the current inflation rate remains nearly 1 percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment raises fears of a significantly weakened job market [3]

周一美盘前，日本财务大臣片山皋月（Satsuki Katayama）表示，对于偏离经济基本面的汇率波动，日本拥有"自主行动权"，可采取果断措施应对。这是她 在日元近期持续走弱后，向市场投机者发出的迄今最强烈警告。 她的前任加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）与美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）于9月签署了这份汇率联合声明。声明明确两国坚持由市场决定汇率 的基本立场，同时确认在汇率出现过度波动等特定情况下，仍保留干预空间。 片山皋月称："这意味着我们拥有自主行动权。" 去年，日本财务省为支撑日元汇率，在外汇市场投入约1000亿美元，当时日元兑美元汇率一度跌至160附近。 片山皋月于周一接受彭博社采访时称："上周五日元大幅贬值，这种走势显然与经济基本面不符，纯属投机行为。"她还表示："针对此类波动，正如日美财 长联合声明中所述，我们已明确将采取果断行动。" 美元兑日元闻讯短线下挫50点，最低跌至156.87。 在暗示可能直接出手干预汇市的同时，片山皋月还提到，由于首相高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）领导的政府正全力推动经济实现更强劲增长，日本短期财政 状况或将进一步恶化，这也是投 ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that the US stock market will remain tense in 2024 due to investor concerns about missing out on AI gains and fears of a potential bubble, with volatility expected to continue until 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2024, which could boost stock market performance, with a potential 10% valuation re-rating and a projected 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, predicting two rate hikes in 2024, reaching a policy rate of 1.25% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates uncertainty regarding the specific level that would trigger intervention by Japanese authorities, but bold actions may be imminent as the yen strengthens [2] - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the euro may strengthen against the dollar in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and stable ECB rates, with a narrowing gap in real interest rates benefiting the euro [2] Group 3 - CICC emphasizes the importance of policy measures to boost consumption, noting that the macroeconomic backdrop has weakened consumer recovery, but signals of support for domestic demand could lead to a turnaround [3] - China Merchants Bank reports that Japan's interest rate hike may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with a potential long-term impact on liquidity and bond markets [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the need to focus on changes in consumer structure for long-term investment, with an emphasis on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [5][6] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates a mild reduction in policy rates in 2026, with a potential decrease of 10 basis points in one to two instances, which could stabilize bank net interest margins [7] - CITIC Securities continues to favor the AI computing sector, noting strong demand for computing power as AI models evolve [8] - CITIC Securities reports that the US CPI has unexpectedly cooled, which may lead to an upward revision of Fed rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [9] Group 5 - China Securities expects listed insurance companies to achieve double-digit growth in core premium income and value in 2026, driven by asset reallocation and a favorable equity market [10] - Huatai Securities suggests continuing to position for a spring market rally, focusing on sectors like AI, batteries, and consumer goods that are expected to improve [11]

美联储在12月如期降息，将联邦基金目标利率下调至3.5%-3.75%区间。不出所料，这一决定引发争议： 地区联储主席奥斯汀·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）和杰弗里·施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）投出反对票，主 张维持利率不变；理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）则支持更大幅度的50个基点降息。 本次会议整体基调偏鹰派，但鹰派程度或许低于市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jay Powell）表示，联 邦基金利率"处于其中性水平估计区间的广泛范围内"，且"联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已做好充分 准备，等待观察经济发展态势"。 英国《金融时报》货币政策雷达（Monetary Policy Radar）团队认为，鲍威尔的表态印证了他们的预 期，即美联储将在明年1月底的下次会议上维持当前利率水平不变。 不过，该团队认为应谨慎看待12月会议的鹰派暗示。美联储今年首次降息时就已明确，其将优先稳定劳 动力市场，而非担忧关税引发的物价上涨可能不是一次性的。 即便此前数周经过一番深思熟虑，美联储仍在12月再次降息，这表明上述政策反应机制仍在发挥作用。 该团队认为，劳动力市场疲软态势可能延续至明年，美联 ...