甘李药业（603087.SH，公司）2025年预计净利润达到11亿到12亿元，同比增长79%-95%；扣非净利 润7亿到8亿元，增长超过六成。 这不仅仅是简单的业务复苏。今天，我们就来拆解一下，甘李到底是如何在集采压力之下，获得如此 增长的。 （来源：公司2025年业绩预增公告） 从产品输出到技术输出。 作者 | beyond 编辑 | 小白 核心业务：不止是回血，更是抢地盘 甘李这轮增长，根基在于国内胰岛素业务实实在在地好了起来。2025年前三季度，这块收入大涨45. 6%，而且难得的出现了"量价齐升"的局面——销量贡献一部分增长，价格也回升贡献了另一部分。 （来源：公司2025年三季报） 关键转折点在于2024年的胰岛素国家集采接续采购。甘李打了个漂亮仗，六款产品全部中选，协议采 购量比上一轮直接增长了超30%。这意味着，集采带来的确定性销量大幅增加。 更厉害的是盈利能力修复。相比2022年集采后毛利率大跌、甚至亏损的窘境，近两年公司毛利率稳定 在73%以上，并呈逐年回升的态势。这说明公司通过成本控制和产品结构优化，把集采的压力逐步转 化成了市场份额和利润空间。 （来源：市值风云APP） 市场格局也在悄然 ...

Group 1 - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit, dropping from nearly 2 billion in 2021 to less than 100 million by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a nearly halved performance year-on-year [3] - The current market capitalization of the company is around 10 billion [4] - The fluctuations in the company's performance raise questions about whether these changes are due to industry conditions or internal issues [5] Group 2 - Recently, the propylene oxide index reached a nearly four-year high, which is one of the company's main products, suggesting potential for recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant capital inflow into high-elasticity sectors, particularly in the technology space, during the fourth quarter of 2025, showcasing a stark contrast in market performance between high-growth and value-oriented investments [1][18]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Capital Inflows - In the fourth quarter of 2025, 12 actively managed equity funds saw their shares increase by over 1 billion units, indicating strong investor interest despite market volatility [5]. - The top two funds with the largest share increases were both managed by Yongying Fund, focusing on hard technology sectors, with the Yongying Pioneer Semiconductor Fund (025208.OF) increasing by 6.67 billion units and reaching a total scale of 9.33 billion yuan [7][11]. - The Yongying High-end Equipment Fund (015789.OF) also performed well, with a share increase of 5.61 billion units and a total scale of 9.76 billion yuan, primarily investing in commercial aerospace [11][13]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Manager Profiles - Fund managers like Zhang Haiqiao and Zhang Lu from Yongying Fund have successfully attracted significant capital by focusing on high-growth technology sectors, reflecting a trend where performance drives investor interest [9][11]. - Notable fund manager Fan Yan from Fuguo Fund also saw substantial inflows into her balanced investment fund, which increased by 1.18 billion units despite a net value decline, indicating investor confidence in her long-term strategy [20][21]. - Similarly, manager Nie Shilin from Anxin Fund experienced a share increase of 2.54 billion units in his fund, despite a near 5% loss, showcasing a preference for defensive strategies amid market fluctuations [22][23]. Group 3: Value and Defensive Strategies - The article notes a trend where funds like the Industrial Bank Value Selection Fund (019085.OF) saw share increases despite negative performance, indicating a strategy of accumulating value assets viewed as defensive positions [26]. - The fund manager You Hongye emphasized the potential recovery in the real estate sector, which is currently undervalued, suggesting a long-term investment perspective [26]. - Overall, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw a dual approach where investors chased high-growth technology while also seeking safety in value-oriented strategies, reflecting a complex market sentiment [30][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. policies on the photovoltaic (PV) business of Bowei Alloy, leading to a drastic decline in profits and a strategic shift away from the solar sector towards new materials [4][10]. Group 1: Financial Impact - Bowei Alloy's projected net profit for 2025 is expected to plummet to between 100 million to 150 million yuan, a staggering decline of 88.92% to 92.61% compared to 1.354 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - The company has to account for a total asset impairment provision of 1.0252 billion yuan, which includes credit impairment losses, inventory write-downs, and fixed asset impairments [9]. Group 2: U.S. Policy Changes - In mid-2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed a 307.78% anti-dumping and countervailing duty on PV products exported from Vietnam, directly affecting Bowei Alloy's 3GW battery project aimed at the U.S. market [6]. - The introduction of the "Inflation Reduction Act" in July 2025 requires Chinese-controlled companies to reduce their ownership stake below 25% to qualify for federal subsidies, which Bowei Alloy does not meet [8]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - In response to the unfavorable U.S. policies, Bowei Alloy has decided to divest its U.S. solar projects and exit the renewable energy sector entirely, refocusing on its core new materials business [12][13]. - The new materials segment, which accounted for 74.62% of revenue in 2024, is expected to be the primary growth driver moving forward, despite the higher profit margins previously associated with solar products [16]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Prospects - Bowei Alloy specializes in high-performance copper-based alloys, with applications in high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, and 5G communications [18]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a solid foundation for future expansion in the new materials market [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance forecasts of various A-share listed companies, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks across different sectors, with a focus on companies showing significant profit growth and those facing substantial losses [4]. Group 1: Companies with Notable Profit Growth - **Southern Power Storage (600995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.5-1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%-85%, driven by large-scale energy storage projects and favorable electricity pricing policies [7]. - **Transsion Holdings (688036.SH)**: Anticipated net profit of 4.2-4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75%-100%, due to increased market share in emerging markets and product optimization [8]. - **Green Harmonic (688017.SH)**: Projected net profit of 150-180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80%-116%, supported by rising demand for humanoid robots and improved product margins [10]. - **Shengyi Technology (600183.SH)**: Expected net profit of 3.25-3.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%-98%, attributed to the recovery in the PCB industry [11]. - **Century Huatong (002602.SZ)**: Forecasted net profit of 5.55-6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 357.47%-475.34%, driven by strong performance in mobile gaming [12]. - **Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 426-490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%-130%, due to deepening collaborations in key product lines [13]. - **Jiumuwang (601566.SH)**: Projected net profit of 250-280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%-85%, supported by brand upgrades and improved online sales [14]. - **Panjiang Coal (600395.SH)**: Anticipated net profit of 2.5-2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%-68%, due to rising coal prices and effective cost control [15]. - **Tongkun Co. (601233.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.5-1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%-104%, driven by the recovery in the PTA-polyester chain [16]. - **Shenghe Resources (600392.SH)**: Projected net profit of 800-1,000 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120%-175%, supported by rising rare earth prices [17]. - **Wanfeng Aowei (002085.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 850-1,050 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85%-128%, driven by increased demand for magnesium alloy wheels [18]. - **Biosan (688796.SH)**: Projected net profit of 80-120 million yuan, turning profitable due to progress in new drug development [19]. - **Wantai Biological Pharmacy (603392.SH)**: Expected net profit of 53-159 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%-140%, driven by the recovery of vaccine sales [20]. - **Ninebot (689009.SH)**: Anticipated net profit of 1.67-1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.04%-70.64%, due to growing demand for smart mobility products [22]. - **China Shipbuilding (600150.SH)**: Expected net profit of 7-8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.89%-132.42%, due to an upgrade in order structure [23]. - **Foton Motor (600166.SH)**: Projected net profit of 1.33 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 1551%, driven by sales growth in new energy vehicles [24]. - **Youyan New Materials (600206.SH)**: Expected net profit of 255-280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73%-90%, supported by growth in target markets [26]. - **Huakang Clean (301235.SZ)**: Anticipated net profit of 280-320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85%-111%, due to increased demand in the biopharmaceutical sector [28]. - **Mars Man (300894.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 180-220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%-95%, driven by strong sales of integrated stoves [29]. - **Jifeng Co. (603997.SH)**: Projected net profit of 410-495 million yuan, turning profitable due to increased orders in the automotive sector [30]. - **Fosda (603173.SH)**: Expected net profit of 180-220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%-90%, driven by demand for deep-cooling equipment [32]. - **Zhongshun Jierou (002511.SZ)**: Anticipated net profit of 300-330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 288.69%-327.56%, due to effective cost control [33]. - **Shunbo Alloy (002996.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 210-270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.96%-315.23%, driven by rising aluminum prices [35]. - **Ruitai New Materials (301238.SZ)**: Projected net profit of 185-240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.67%-183.68%, due to significant non-recurring gains [36]. - **Goodway (688390.SH)**: Expected net profit of 125-162 million yuan, turning profitable due to the domestic photovoltaic installation surge [37]. - **Gao De Infrared (002414.SZ)**: Projected net profit of 700-900 million yuan, turning profitable due to expanded applications of infrared thermal imaging [39]. Group 2: Companies with Significant Losses - **Qidi Environment (000826.SZ)**: Expected net loss of 2.8-3.5 billion yuan, with losses widening due to substantial investment losses and increased credit impairment [44]. - **Meike Home (600337.SH)**: Projected net loss of 1.2-1.8 billion yuan, with losses widening due to a downturn in the home furnishing industry [46]. - **Shapais (603168.SH)**: Expected net loss of 319-213 million yuan, with losses widening due to goodwill impairment [47]. - **Zhixiang Jintai (688443.SH)**: Projected net loss of 400-500 million yuan, with losses widening due to high clinical trial costs and limited revenue [48]. - **Jinpu Titanium Industry (000545.SZ)**: Expected net loss of 490-430 million yuan, with losses widening due to intense competition in the titanium dioxide market [50]. - **Guozhong Water (600187)**: Projected net loss of 10.4-13 million yuan, with losses due to asset impairment and operational challenges [51]. - **Juguang Technology (300203.SZ)**: Expected net loss of 20-25 million yuan, with losses due to industry demand decline and increased competition [54]. - **Jingjin Electric (688280.SH)**: Projected net loss of 30-35 million yuan, with losses due to intense competition in the new energy vehicle sector [55]. - **Liaoning Energy (600758.SH)**: Expected net loss of 50-60 million yuan, with losses due to falling coal prices and increased environmental costs [57]. - **Huachang Chemical (002274.SZ)**: Projected net loss of 25-30 million yuan, with losses due to delayed project launches and rising raw material costs [58]. - **Hengyuan Coal Power (600971.SH)**: Expected net loss of 35-45 million yuan, with losses due to falling coal prices and increased costs [59]. - **Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH)**: Projected net loss of 12-15 million yuan, with losses due to high inventory and competitive pressures [61]. - **Hongchuan Wisdom (002930.SZ)**: Expected net loss of 44.3-47.5 million yuan, with losses due to declining demand in the chemical storage sector [62]. - **Haitian High-tech (002023.SZ)**: Projected net loss of 39-58 million yuan, with losses due to asset impairment [64]. - **Kew Flower Pharmaceutical (002737.SZ)**: Expected net loss of 24-38 million yuan, with losses due to channel adjustments and rising sales expenses [65]. - **Jinyuan Co. (000546.SZ)**: Projected net loss of 18-36 million yuan, with losses due to asset impairment [66]. - **Tianshun Wind Power (002531.SZ)**: Expected net loss of 19-25 million yuan, with losses due to asset impairment [67]. - **Rainbow Co. (600707.SZ)**: Projected net profit of 330-390 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.55%-73.39%, due to falling panel prices and high inventory [68]. - **Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 120-150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%-56.34%, due to rising costs and competitive pressures [70]. - **Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical (300316.SZ)**: Projected net profit of 878-1,255 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50%-65%, due to cyclical fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry [71]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Drivers - **Driver One: Technological Breakthroughs and Domestic Substitution**: This is currently the most growth-oriented theme, with companies like Green Harmonic and Transsion Holdings benefiting from advancements in technology and market understanding [72]. - **Driver Two: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement**: In stable demand sectors, companies with superior cost control and operational efficiency, such as Zhongshun Jierou and Foton Motor, are achieving significant alpha returns [73]. - **Driver Three: Price Cycles and Policy Benefits**: Price fluctuations in resource commodities and supportive policies continue to influence industry performance, with companies like Shenghe Resources and Panjiang Coal benefiting from price increases [74]. - **Trend Divergence and Potential Turning Points**: The new energy vehicle supply chain shows stronger performance in upstream components compared to downstream integrators, while the pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant internal differentiation [75].

资管业绩亮眼，和主业亏损都是事实。 | 作者 | | 观韬 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 1月28日盘后，九安医疗（002432.SZ）发布2025年业绩预告，预计2025年实现归母净利润20.2亿元至 23.5亿元，同比增长21.05%至40.83%。 2025年前三季度，九安医疗营收仅10.69亿，但净利润达15.89亿，更有意思的是其营业总成本达12.76 亿，已经超过收入，数据也已经说明了一切。 | 项目 | 本会计年度 | | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的 | | 202, 000 | 2 | 235, 000 | 166.872.73 | | 净利润 | 比上年同期增长 | 21. 05% | 2 | 40. 83% | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的 | | 207,000 | 2 | 240, 000 | 168.053.20 | | 浄利润 | 比上年同期增长 | 23. 18% | ~ | 42. 81% | | | 基本每股收益(元/股) | | 4. 6 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of a new power system that integrates safety, green energy, and efficiency, while optimizing the electricity market and establishing a reliable capacity compensation mechanism [5][6]. - It highlights the importance of categorizing and improving coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage capacity pricing [5]. - The article lists various companies involved in the power equipment sector, indicating a diverse range of players in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of China's manufacturing industry towards "smart manufacturing" and "low carbon," highlighting the emergence of local pioneers like Huichuan Technology, which is redefining the competitive landscape of industrial automation [3][4]. Company Overview - Huichuan Technology is referred to as the "Huawei of industrial automation," expanding its product categories from core drives to a comprehensive range of solutions including robots, vision products, sensors, precision machinery, and pneumatic products [5][4]. Market Position - The company holds approximately 32% market share in general servo systems, 22% in low-voltage frequency converters, 7% in small PLCs, 5.1% in medium and large PLCs, and 8.2% in industrial robots, with SCARA robots leading at 20.4% [6][7][8][9]. Growth Potential - There is significant growth potential for Huichuan's products like frequency converters and servo systems, driven by the trend of automation and intelligent manufacturing [10]. Technological Advantage - Huichuan's core advantage lies in its ability to reuse its expertise in power electronics and motor drive technologies across various emerging fields, providing tailored solutions for industries such as elevators, air compressors, and lithium battery equipment [12]. R&D Investment - The company invests 8%-10% of its annual revenue in R&D, maintaining a three-tiered research system that ensures it stays at the forefront of technology and can quickly respond to market demands [13]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 31.66 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.25 billion yuan, up 27% [19][20]. The gross margin was 29.3%, with a notable increase in operating profit margin and net profit margin [21]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company has achieved a negative cash conversion cycle by Q3 2025, indicating high operational efficiency. Its interest-bearing debt ratio has decreased to 7%, down from 12.7% in 2022 [23][25]. Industry Trends - The rise of humanoid robots is supported by strong market demand and government policies, with China becoming a significant player in this field. The company is focusing on manufacturing scenarios and developing reusable solutions rather than short-term speculative projects [33][35]. Future Outlook - Huichuan is actively engaging with leading humanoid robot manufacturers and has established a dedicated robotics division to seize opportunities in this emerging market [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of Feitian Moutai and Zodiac Horse Moutai have increased across the board, indicating a positive trend in the premium liquor market [5]. Price Summary - The price for the 26-year Feitian Moutai in original packaging is reported at 1590 yuan per bottle, an increase of 35 yuan; the price for loose bottles is 1570 yuan, up by 20 yuan [5]. - The 25-year Feitian Moutai is priced at 1600 yuan per bottle in original packaging, also up by 35 yuan, while loose bottles are at 1580 yuan, increasing by 20 yuan [5]. - Prices for the 23-year and 24-year Feitian Moutai have also seen varying degrees of increase [5]. Industry Overview - The liquor sector includes various brands categorized by flavor profiles, such as: - Sauce-flavor: Guizhou Moutai - Strong-flavor: Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Wuliangye, Gujinggongjiu, Jianshiyuan, Yingjia Gongjiu, Shede Jiuye, Jinhui Jiu, Shuijingfang, Huangtaijiu, Yilite, and others - Light-flavor: Shanxi Fenjiu, Shunxin Agriculture, Tianyoude Jiu, and others [6].

结构性牛市，更考验管理人的 投研内功 与产品实力。 作者 | 紫枫 编辑 | 小白 2025年中国资本市场在产业升级与政策加持双重驱动下，呈现结构性上行行情，新质生产力、战略资 源相关赛道成为市场主线，带动市场整体价值重估。 从指数表现来看，沪深300指数斩获17.66%的双位数涨幅，半导体、人工智能、有色金属等板块个股 表现活跃，为公募基金提供了广阔的业绩施展空间。 与此同时，结构性机遇下，也更考验管理人的投研深度与产品化实力。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年 末，嘉实基金旗下共有143只产品（仅统计主代码）年度回报超过20%，其中41只产品收益突破 50%，涵盖主动权益、被动指数、固收+等多个品类；41只产品相对基准的超额回报超20%。 立足一体化投研基底，既印证了 嘉实 主动管理能力的持续兑现，也体现了被动投资业务的广度与特 色深耕，更展现出其对科技成长、战略资源等核心赛道的长期、前瞻性布局。 超级ETF：产品矩阵广度与特色深耕 2025年，国内ETF市场迎来里程碑式发展，Wind数据显示，截至2025年末全市场ETF规模正式突破 6.02万亿元，较2024年末激增逾六成，产品数量扩充至1402只，增 ...