June 9, 2025 产业洞察 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，2025年第一季，全球晶圆代工产业受国际形势变化影响而提前备 货，部分业者接获客户急单，加上中国延续2024年推出的旧换新补贴政策，抵消部分淡季冲击， 整 体产业营收季减约5.4%，收敛至364亿美元。 展望第二季营收表现，整体动能逐步放缓，唯中国旧换新的补贴政策拉货潮有望延续，加上下半年智 能手机新品上市前备货陆续启动，以及AI HPC需求稳定，将成为带动第二季产能利用率和出货的关 键，预期前十大晶圆代工厂营收将呈现季增。 | Ranking | Company | | Revenue | | | Market Share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1Q25 | 4Q24 | QoQ | 1Q25 | 4Q24 | | 1 | 台积电(TSMC) | 25,517 | 26,854 | -5.0% | 67.6% | 67.1% | | 2 | 三星(Samsung) | 2,893 | 3,260 | -11.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | | ...

Group 1: DRAM Industry Overview - The DRAM industry revenue for Q1 2025 is reported at $27.01 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.5% due to falling contract prices for conventional DRAM and a contraction in HBM shipment volumes [1][2] - Major players in the DRAM market include SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with SK Hynix leading with a market share of 36.0% despite a 7.1% revenue decline, while Samsung's revenue dropped by 19.1% to $9.1 billion, resulting in a market share decrease to 33.7% [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - Anticipated price increases for Server and PC DDR4 modules in Q2 2025 are expected to be between 18-23% and 13-18% respectively, driven by reduced production from major suppliers and proactive inventory stocking by buyers [3][4] Group 3: OLED Technology and Market Growth - The demand for mid-sized displays is growing, with OLED technology expected to capture a larger market share due to its advantages such as self-emission and high contrast [4] - OLED display shipments are projected to increase by 80.6% year-over-year in 2025, with the overall market penetration expected to rise to 2%, potentially reaching 5% by 2028 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The panel prices for TVs, monitors, and laptops are expected to remain stable in June 2025, despite some pressures from inventory levels and demand fluctuations [2][4][5]. Group 1: TV Panel Market - TV panel demand has weakened, leading to increased inventory levels since the first quarter. Brands are negotiating for better prices and discounts for the upcoming promotional season [2]. - The expectation for June is that TV panel prices will remain flat, although there is a possibility of slight declines in certain sizes due to ongoing buyer pressure [2][4]. Group 2: Monitor Panel Market - Monitor panel prices have been supported by active procurement from brand customers, but this momentum is slowing as inventory levels rise. The demand for TV panels is also affecting monitor panel pricing [4]. - Most panel manufacturers are cautious about further price increases, anticipating that brand customers will resist ongoing price hikes. Therefore, monitor panel prices are expected to stabilize in June [4]. Group 3: Laptop Panel Market - The demand for laptop panels is currently stable, with brand customers becoming more optimistic about the third quarter compared to earlier in the year [5]. - Despite this optimism, panel manufacturers remain cautious about future demand fluctuations and are unlikely to propose price increases, opting instead for discreet discounts to maintain key customer relationships. Thus, laptop panel prices are also expected to remain stable in June [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the anticipated price increases for Server and PC DDR4 modules in the second quarter of 2025, driven by supply constraints and proactive inventory stocking by buyers, with expected increases of 18-23% for Server DDR4 and 13-18% for PC DDR4, surpassing previous forecasts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of Server DDR4 modules is projected to rise by 18-23% in Q2 2025 and 8-13% in Q3 2025 [2]. - PC DDR4 module prices are expected to increase by 13-18% in Q2 2025 and 18-23% in Q3 2025 [2]. - The adjustments in price forecasts are attributed to the strategic inventory stocking by cloud service providers (CSPs) and the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The DDR4 generation has surpassed a 10-year lifecycle, with demand gradually shifting towards DDR5, HBM, and LPDDR5 products, leading major suppliers to plan the discontinuation of DDR4 production by early 2026 [2]. - The demand for storage servers, particularly in AI applications, has been robust, contributing to increased orders for DDR4 memory [3]. - The international situation in early April prompted PC OEMs to increase production volumes and expedite shipments to the U.S. market to mitigate uncertainties, further tightening the supply of PC DDR4 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future price trends for DDR4 contracts will be influenced by supplier production strategies and tariff policies, with potential for further price increases due to anticipated inventory demands [3]. - TrendForce will continue to monitor changes in supplier output strategies and downstream customer stocking behaviors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the price fluctuations of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, as well as the supply and demand dynamics affecting these segments [5][9][15]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported at 36.5 RMB/KG for recycled material, 34.0 RMB/KG for dense material, and 33.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5][6]. - There is an increase in transaction volume post-holiday, with some manufacturers selling below the mainstream price to stabilize cash flow, while crystal pulling factories are pushing for lower prices [6]. - Overall polysilicon inventory is above 370,000 tons, with a trend of increasing inventory due to slowed downstream purchasing [7]. - During the wet season, some manufacturers confirmed production increases, but cautious purchasing from crystal pulling factories is leading to price pressure [8][9]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are 0.93 RMB/piece for M10, 1.27 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.07 RMB/piece for G12R [9][12]. - There is a divergence in supply and demand across different specifications, with excess inventory for 183N wafers, while demand for 210RN wafers is improving due to new production lines [10]. - Silicon wafer inventory remains stable at around 2 billion pieces, with no significant growth expected in the short term [12]. Solar Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type solar cells are 0.250 RMB/W for M10, 0.270 RMB/W for G12, and 0.260 RMB/W for G12R [12][15]. - There is a significant pressure on the supply of 183-sized cells, while demand for 210RN cells is relatively strong, supporting current prices [13]. - Inventory levels for specialized solar cell manufacturers are around one week, but there is a risk of inventory rising due to oversupply [14]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for modules are 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm double-sided TOPCon modules and 0.75 RMB/W for 210mm double-sided HJT modules [15]. - There is a vacuum in terminal module demand, with major manufacturers reducing production and mid-tier manufacturers also cutting back [16]. - Module prices are experiencing differentiation, with larger high-efficiency modules commanding a premium, while traditional components are seeing prices drop below 0.65 RMB/W [17]. Overseas Demand - In Europe, module prices remained stable in May, but future prices may be affected by the decline in imported products [18]. - In India, anti-dumping rulings on imported photovoltaic glass may increase local component costs [18]. - In the United States, FOB prices are stable, but concerns are rising regarding new investigations into Southeast Asian manufacturers [18].

Core Viewpoint - The panel prices for TVs, monitors, and laptops are expected to remain stable in June 2025 according to TrendForce's latest report [1]. Group 1: TV Panels - The average price for a 65-inch TV panel is projected to be $177, with a minimum price of $173 and a maximum price of $181 [4]. - The average price for a 55-inch TV panel is expected to be $127, with a minimum price of $122 and a maximum price of $129 [5]. - The average price for a 43-inch TV panel is forecasted at $66, with a minimum price of $64 and a maximum price of $67 [6]. - The average price for a 32-inch TV panel is anticipated to be $36, with a minimum price of $35 and a maximum price of $37 [7]. - Overall, TV panel prices are expected to remain unchanged [3]. Group 2: Monitor Panels - The average price for a 27-inch IPS monitor panel is projected to be $63, with a minimum price of $57.6 and a maximum price of $65.8 [11]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS monitor panel is expected to be $49.9, with a minimum price of $47.1 and a maximum price of $51.4 [12]. - Monitor panel prices are also expected to remain stable [10]. Group 3: Laptop Panels - The average price for a 17.3-inch TN laptop panel is expected to remain at $38.3, with a minimum price of $37.7 and a maximum price of $39.8 [14]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS laptop panel is projected to be $40.3, consistent with the previous month, with a minimum price of $38.6 and a maximum price of $41.9 [14]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN laptop panel is expected to remain at $26.9, with a minimum price of $26.4 and a maximum price of $28.1 [14]. - The average price for an 11.6-inch TN laptop panel is projected to be $25.1, with a minimum price of $24.2 and a maximum price of $26.5 [14]. - Laptop panel prices are anticipated to remain unchanged [13].

Core Insights - OLED technology is expanding its market share due to advantages like self-emission, high contrast, and lightweight design, primarily in small-sized applications such as smartphones. However, large-sized market penetration is slow due to cost and capacity constraints [1] - The mid-size market, including monitors, laptops, tablets, and automotive displays, is experiencing renewed competition as consumers seek high-end display effects [1] - TrendForce forecasts that OLED display shipments will grow by 80.6% annually by 2025, with overall market penetration reaching 2%, and potentially challenging 5% by 2028 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TCL Huaxing is set to mass-produce medical-grade printed OLED displays, while Visionox is expected to introduce ViP technology in its new production line [2] - Printed OLED technology aims to overcome limitations of FMM and vacuum environments, enhancing material usage efficiency and reducing equipment investment costs by approximately 25% compared to similar vapor-deposited products [2] - Despite challenges in yield, pixel density, and reliability, printed OLED panels have achieved a resolution of 326 PPI, meeting the needs of laptops and monitors [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - TCL Huaxing is balancing technological innovation and mass production by supplying high-end smartphones and flagship laptops with FMM OLED while gradually introducing printed OLED for medical and gaming displays [2] - By the end of 2024, TCL Huaxing will begin small-scale production of 21.6-inch medical printed OLED displays, marking a significant step into commercial application [2] - Visionox is actively promoting its proprietary ViP technology, which utilizes lithography to achieve pixel graphics, freeing itself from FMM's size and resolution constraints [3] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - A comparison of OLED technologies shows that printed OLED has lower equipment investment costs and high material usage efficiency, while FMM OLED is more established but has higher costs [4] - The pixel density of ViP OLED can reach 1700-2000 PPI, significantly higher than the approximately 326 PPI of printed OLED, indicating a trade-off between technology maturity and performance [4] - The market is expected to see a shift towards more flexible and cost-effective OLED solutions as non-vapor deposition technologies gain traction [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM industry is expected to see a revenue decline in Q1 2025 due to falling contract prices for conventional DRAM and a convergence in HBM shipment volumes, with a projected revenue of $27.01 billion, down 5.5% from the previous quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Revenue and Price Trends - The revenue for the DRAM industry in Q1 2025 is projected at $27.01 billion, reflecting a 5.5% quarter-over-quarter decrease [1][2]. - The average selling prices are expected to continue their downward trend from Q4 2024, influenced by Samsung's changes in HBM3e product design and inventory liquidation by downstream players [1]. - In Q2 2025, a recovery in contract prices is anticipated as PC OEMs and smartphone manufacturers complete inventory adjustments, leading to increased procurement activity [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - SK hynix reported a revenue of $9.72 billion in Q4 2024, experiencing a 7.1% decrease in Q1 2025, maintaining the top position in market share at 36.0% [2][4]. - Samsung's revenue fell by 19.1% to $9.1 billion in Q1 2025, dropping its market share to 33.7% due to reduced shipments of high-priced HBM3e products [2][4]. - Micron's revenue increased by 2.7% to $6.58 billion in Q1 2025, benefiting from expanded HBM3e shipments despite a slight decrease in prices [2][5]. - Nanya and Winbond both saw revenue increases of 7.5% and 22.7%, respectively, in Q1 2025, driven by specific product launches and higher shipment volumes [5].

Group 1: Enterprise SSD Market - The demand for enterprise SSDs is expected to grow significantly by Q3 2025, driven by increased AI investments from major cloud service providers (CSPs) [1] - With low finished product inventory levels, the enterprise SSD market is anticipated to shift towards a supply shortage, supporting a price increase of approximately 10% [1] Group 2: NAND Flash Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the combined revenue of the top five NAND Flash manufacturers reached $12.02 billion, reflecting a nearly 24% quarter-over-quarter decline [3] - The average selling price (ASP) of NAND Flash products decreased by 15%, and shipment volumes fell by 7% due to inventory pressures and declining end-user demand [3] - Samsung, SK Group, Micron, Kioxia, and Sandisk are the top five NAND Flash brands, with respective revenues of $4.2 billion, $2.19 billion, $2.03 billion, $1.92 billion, and $1.70 billion in Q1 2025 [4] Group 3: Micro LED Market Outlook - The Micro LED technology is focusing on two key areas: optimizing manufacturing costs through improved design and production processes, and exploring unique niche markets [5] - The market value of Micro LED display applications is projected to reach $740 million by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 93% from 2024 to 2029 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing significant price declines and reduced shipment volumes in Q1 2025, with a forecasted recovery in Q2 2025 as inventory levels normalize and prices rebound [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the average selling price (ASP) of NAND Flash is expected to decrease by 15% quarter-over-quarter, with shipment volumes down by 7%, leading to a nearly 24% decline in revenue for the top five NAND Flash manufacturers, totaling $12.02 billion [1][2]. - The top five NAND Flash suppliers hold a combined market share of 91.3% in Q1 2025, down from 84.3% in Q4 2024 [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Samsung remains the market leader with Q1 revenue of $4.2 billion, a decrease of 25% due to reduced demand for enterprise SSDs, but expects recovery as NAND Flash wafer prices rebound and NVIDIA's new products are released [4]. - SK Group, including SK hynix and Solidigm, reported a revenue drop of 35.5% to $2.19 billion in Q1 2025, facing challenges from seasonal effects and high customer inventory levels [5]. - Micron achieved a revenue of $2.03 billion in Q1 2025, down 11%, benefiting from increased shipment volumes despite a decline in ASP [6]. - Kioxia's revenue fell to $1.92 billion in Q1 2025 due to weak seasonal demand, impacting both shipment volumes and ASP [7]. - SanDisk reported Q1 revenue of $1.7 billion, with slight declines in shipment volumes and ASP, and plans to enhance QLC product shipments to improve profitability [8].