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光伏周价格 | 产业链报涨但幅度缩窄,涨幅传导压力向组件集中
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-31 05:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the fluctuations in prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, as well as the supply-demand balance and inventory levels across different segments of the industry [5][10][12]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported as 43.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 41.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 41.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The price increase in polysilicon is driven by successful price adjustments in silicon wafers, although the increase is narrowing compared to previous weeks [6]. - The current inventory in the polysilicon industry is over 380,000 tons, with expectations of an upward trend in August [7]. - The overall supply of polysilicon is projected to be in the range of 120,000 to 125,000 tons in August, with new capacities expected to come online [8]. - There is a strong expectation for production recovery due to price corrections, but potential market saturation could pose challenges [9]. - N-type polysilicon prices have increased again, but the growth rate is slowing, with ongoing support from policy expectations [10]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported as 1.20 RMB/piece for M10, 1.55 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.35 RMB/piece for G12R [11]. - Silicon wafer manufacturers are controlling production to maintain supply-demand stability, which supports price increases [12]. - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased significantly to around 16 GW, alleviating inventory pressure and enhancing bargaining power [13]. - All specifications of silicon wafers have seen price increases, driven by upstream supply constraints and strong overseas demand for battery cells [14]. Battery Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type battery cells are reported as 0.285 RMB/W for M10, and 0.280 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R [15]. - Strong demand from regions like Turkey and Pakistan is noted, influenced by changes in tariff policies, while domestic demand is also rising due to expectations of export tax refunds [16]. - The inventory of specialized battery cell companies has decreased to around 5 days, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [17]. - The price increase in battery cells is successfully transmitted due to domestic and international stocking activities, but future sustainability depends on export tax policies and overseas demand [18]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for modules are reported as 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm HJT modules [19]. - Leading manufacturers are experiencing better order visibility, while smaller manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [20]. - Major manufacturers are attempting to maintain prices despite rising upstream costs, but the outcome remains uncertain due to ongoing negotiations [21]. - In Europe, module prices have continued to decline, while in India and the US, price stability is observed amidst changing tariff regulations [22].
研报 | AI需求表现突出,消费电子市场低迷,2H25 MLCC旺季走势存在变数
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-30 03:59
Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of early consumption and inventory accumulation on the demand for MLCCs, indicating potential fluctuations in back-to-school season consumption in Q3 2023 [1] - There is a noticeable polarization in industry demand, with ODM orders for mid-to-low-end consumer products showing only a slight increase, reflecting a conservative approach to order placements [1] - The demand for AI servers is surging, driven by the simultaneous release of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 platforms, positively affecting the revenue of major ODMs [1] Group 1 - TrendForce reports that MLCC order demand may be affected by the diminishing early consumption and inventory accumulation, leading to uncertainties in the Q3 back-to-school season [1] - ODM orders for mid-to-low-end consumer products are expected to remain flat or increase by only about 5% in Q3, indicating a shift towards a more cautious order strategy [1] - Many companies have preemptively shipped products in the first half of the year to adapt to international market changes, which has depleted traditional demand for the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The supply chain's operational rates are polarized, with Japanese and Korean manufacturers focusing on high-end AI applications achieving an average capacity utilization rate of 90%, while Chinese manufacturers are around 75% [2] - MLCC suppliers are accelerating the establishment of testing and packaging lines in Southeast Asia to localize production and supply [2] - OEMs are expected to face cost pressures, leading to potential price increases for end products as they release RFQ for 2026 mobile phones and laptops [2]
每周观察| 2025年全球折叠手机出货量预估,华为占34.3%;预估Blackwell将占2025年英伟达高阶GPU出货超80%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-25 04:04
Group 1 - The estimated shipment volume of foldable phones is projected to reach 19.8 million units by 2025, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.6%, remaining stable compared to 2024 [1] - Although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, advancements in technology and price reductions are driving foldable phones to become a focal point in the mid-to-high-end market and a tool for brand differentiation [1] - Major manufacturers are accelerating the launch of new products and actively expanding their product lines and price ranges in preparation for a potential market explosion in 2026 [1] Group 2 - It is estimated that Blackwell will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2025, with the penetration rate of liquid cooling solutions continuing to rise [5] - The overall server market has stabilized recently, with ODMs focusing on the development of AI servers, and new Blackwell platform products are gradually being released [5]
研报 | 预估Blackwell将占2025年英伟达高阶GPU出货逾80%,液冷散热渗透率续攀升
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-24 08:46
Group 1 - The overall Server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI Server development, and it is expected that Blackwell GPUs will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments this year [1] - North American CSP giant Oracle is expanding its AI data center, benefiting companies like Supermicro and Quanta, with Supermicro's growth driven by AI Server projects [2] - Liquid cooling solutions are becoming a standard configuration for high-performance AI data centers, with increasing adoption rates for high-end AI chips [3] Group 2 - Liquid cooling will significantly boost the demand for cooling components, accelerating the supply chain's output pace, with companies like Fositek and Auras actively engaging in the liquid cooling market [5] - Fositek has begun shipping components for the GB300 platform, while Auras is establishing itself in the liquid cooling market with major clients including Oracle and Supermicro [5]
光伏周价格 | 硅料硅片再度报涨,下游博弈持续
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-24 08:46
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent price increases across various segments of the photovoltaic industry, particularly in polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost recovery efforts [5][10][19]. Polysilicon Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported at 42.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 40.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 40.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The overall transaction prices for polysilicon have stabilized around 40 RMB/KG, with an increase in acceptance of price hikes by crystal pulling factories [6]. - As of this week, the polysilicon industry inventory stands at over 370,000 tons, gradually shifting towards crystal pulling factories due to prior stockpiling by specialized silicon wafer manufacturers [7]. - Looking ahead to August, with rising polysilicon prices, some second and third-tier manufacturers in Xinjiang and Qinghai may prepare to resume production, while leading manufacturers also plan to increase output [8][9]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported at 1.10 RMB/piece for M10, 1.45 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.25 RMB/piece for G12R [10]. - The silicon wafer manufacturers have reduced their operating rates, leading to a balanced supply-demand relationship and noticeable inventory depletion [11]. - Manufacturers with significant low-cost silicon material stock are experiencing profit recovery, and some plan to increase production next month [12]. - The inventory of silicon wafers has entered a depletion phase, with most manufacturers adhering to guided pricing [13]. Battery Cell Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for M10 single crystal TOPCon battery cells are at 0.27 RMB/W, while G12 and G12R cells are at 0.275 RMB/W [16]. - The price increase of 18% for 183N cells is attributed to rising overseas demand, while the price transmission from upstream to downstream remains slow due to intense negotiations [17]. - As of this week, specialized battery cell manufacturers have seen a decrease in inventory, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [18]. - The price increase for N-type battery cells has been successfully transmitted, but future sustainability depends on the price transmission from modules [19]. Module Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for 182mm double-sided double-glass TOPCon modules are at 0.67 RMB/W, and for 210mm double-sided double-glass HJT modules at 0.72 RMB/W [20]. - Leading manufacturers are maintaining a favorable order intake, while second and third-tier manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [21]. - There is an expectation of a gradual price increase of 0.02-0.03 RMB/W from leading manufacturers, while second and third-tier manufacturers are also slightly following suit [22]. - The cost transmission and export tax rebate policies are anticipated to facilitate smoother price adjustments in overseas markets compared to domestic ones [23].
研报 | 预估2025年折叠手机出货量将达1,980万支,渗透率约1.6%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-22 03:54
Core Insights - The article discusses the projected growth and market dynamics of foldable smartphones, highlighting a forecasted shipment of 19.8 million units by 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% compared to 2024 [1] - Despite a slowdown in growth compared to previous years, advancements in technology and price reductions are making foldable phones a focal point in the mid-to-high-end market, with manufacturers preparing for a potential market explosion in 2026 [1][6] Group 1: Market Leaders and Competitors - Samsung remains the leader in the foldable smartphone market, recently launching the Galaxy Z Fold7 with significant improvements in hinge structure, crease control, and weight [4] - Huawei is expected to maintain strong performance in the Chinese market, with a global market share of 34.3% in 2025, while brands like Honor and Lenovo are projected to increase their market shares significantly [5] - Xiaomi is also making strides in the lightweight foldable market, with an expected market share growth from 3.0% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025 [5] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Market Challenges - Despite improvements in technology and product variety, global sales growth of foldable phones remains moderate due to consumer hesitance regarding crease visibility, durability, and pricing, particularly among non-brand loyal users [5] - The current market positioning of foldable phones is seen as "high-end experimental products," as most users prefer high-cost-performance traditional flagship models [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - A potential turning point for the foldable smartphone market may occur in 2026 with Apple's anticipated launch of its first foldable phone, which could significantly increase consumer interest and acceptance [6] - Apple's strategy is expected to focus on stability and ecosystem integration, enhancing user experience through optimized iOS applications and hardware [6] - Overall, foldable smartphones are evolving from mere brand innovation showcases to becoming a core product line, with comprehensive planning across entry-level to flagship models [6]
面板价格观察 | 7月电视面板价格下调,笔电面板需求较佳
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-22 03:54
Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, TV panel prices declined while monitor and laptop panel prices remained stable, indicating a weak demand in the TV panel market and a cautious outlook for the monitor and laptop segments [3][5][10]. TV Panels - The demand for TV panels in July remained weak due to some brand clients adjusting their procurement orders for Q3, which they used as leverage for negotiations [5][6]. - It is anticipated that with the approach of the year-end sales season, brand clients will increase their procurement volumes in August and September, potentially stabilizing panel prices [6]. - The price forecast for July indicates a decrease of $1 for 32-inch and 43-inch panels, $2 for 50-inch and 55-inch panels, and $3 for 65-inch and 75-inch panels [7]. Monitor Panels - As the third quarter begins, the demand for monitor panels has shown signs of slowing down, with only a few specifications experiencing slight supply shortages [8]. - The overall price trend for monitor panels in July is expected to remain flat, influenced by the declining demand and prices in the TV panel market [8]. Laptop Panels - The demand for laptop panels is expected to perform better in July and August, driven by a more optimistic outlook from some brand clients [10]. - Despite this positive outlook, panel manufacturers are hesitant to raise prices and may offer discounts to maintain customer relationships, leading to a stable price forecast for July [10].
最新面板价格趋势(2025年7月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-21 08:15
Core Insights - The article discusses the price trends of display panels as reported by TrendForce, highlighting a decline in television panel prices while monitor and laptop panel prices remain stable [1][10]. Television Panels - The average price for a 65-inch television panel is $173, down by $3 or 1.7% from the previous month, with a range between $167 and $177 [5]. - The average price for a 55-inch television panel is $124, down by $2 or 1.6%, with a range between $118 and $127 [5]. - The average price for a 43-inch television panel is $64, down by $1 or 1.5%, with a range between $62 and $65 [6]. - The average price for a 32-inch television panel is $35, down by $1 or 2.8%, with a range between $34 and $36 [6]. Monitor Panels - Monitor panel prices remained stable in July, with the average price for a 27-inch IPS panel at $63, ranging from $57.6 to $65.8 [7]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS panel is $49.9, with a range between $47.1 and $51.4 [8]. Laptop Panels - Laptop panel prices have remained unchanged, with the average price for a 17.3-inch TN panel at $38.3, ranging from $37.7 to $39.8 [9]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS panel is $40.3, consistent with the previous month, ranging from $38.6 to $41.9 [9]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN panel is stable at $26.9, with a range between $26.4 and $28.1 [9]. - The average price for an 11.6-inch TN panel is also stable at $25.1, ranging from $24.2 to $26.5 [9].
每周观察 | 英伟达H20出口解禁,中国外购AI芯片比例预估;中国Robotaxi市场规模预估;LPDDR4X供给紧缩推升价格…
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-18 04:06
Group 1 - NVIDIA is expected to resume sales of H20 GPUs to the Chinese market, which will boost local AI and cloud demand, with H20 projected to become a key high-end AI chip in the market, leading to increased HBM demand [1] - TrendForce estimates that the proportion of AI chips purchased from NVIDIA and AMD in the Chinese market will rise to 49%, up from a previous estimate of 42% due to the lifting of export restrictions [1] Group 2 - The Robotaxi market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected market size of $44.5 billion by 2035, driven by a robust supply chain and decreasing hardware costs [2] - In the U.S., the Robotaxi market is expected to reach $36.5 billion by 2035, primarily led by Tesla and Waymo [2] Group 3 - The supply of LPDDR4X is tightening, leading to price increases, as major suppliers plan to significantly reduce or stop LPDDR4X production by 2025 and 2026 [5] - To mitigate supply shortages, brands are increasing their procurement of LPDDR4X, which is the main reason for the current rise in contract prices [5] - The price increase trend for LPDDR4X is expected to continue at least until early next year, until brands start adopting LPDDR5X more widely [5]
光伏周价格 | 硅料硅片成交价格上调,组件端成交博弈激烈
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-17 07:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the price increases across various segments such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost pressures [5][10][12][20]. Polysilicon Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported as follows: N-type re-investment material at 35.5 RMB/KG, N-type dense material at 33.0 RMB/KG, and N-type granular silicon at 32.5 RMB/KG [5]. - Polysilicon manufacturers continue to adopt a price support strategy, although overall transactions have started to loosen, with some manufacturers accepting higher quotes while others are absorbing low-priced silicon materials [6]. - The inventory level in the polysilicon industry is over 370,000 tons, showing an upward trend, indicating an increase in production and a widening supply-demand gap [7]. - The supply-demand situation remains fundamentally unchanged, with expectations of some manufacturers resuming operations in August due to price incentives, leading to a balanced market [8]. - The pricing system is somewhat chaotic during the transition period, with significant price discrepancies due to varying production costs among manufacturers, but the overall transaction center has shown an increase [9]. - All categories of N-type polysilicon prices have reported increases, supported by price thresholds set by manufacturers, which have improved acceptance of price hikes by downstream silicon wafer producers [10]. - Future transactions are expected to continue upward trends, oscillating towards cost recovery [11]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for silicon wafers are as follows: N-type M10 at 1.00 RMB/piece, N-type G12 at 1.35 RMB/piece, and N-type G12R at 1.15 RMB/piece [12]. - Manufacturers are effectively controlling output, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and significant inventory reduction [13]. - The inventory status for silicon wafers has entered a depletion phase [14]. - Prices for all specifications of silicon wafers have seen substantial increases, with the recovery of supply-demand relationships being a key factor for future price increases [15]. Solar Cell Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for solar cells are reported as follows: M10 single crystal TOPCon at 0.23 RMB/W, G12 single crystal TOPCon at 0.26 RMB/W, and G12R single crystal TOPCon at 0.26 RMB/W [16]. - The price increase for 183N cells has lagged due to significant demand contraction, while 210N and 210RN cells have seen smoother price increases [17]. - The inventory for specialized solar cell manufacturers is approximately 10 days, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation with light inventory pressure [18]. - N-type solar cells have reported price increases, but the sustainability of these increases is threatened by poor visibility of downstream module orders [19]. Module Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for modules are as follows: 182mm bifacial TOPCon at 0.67 RMB/W and 210mm bifacial HJT at 0.72 RMB/W [20]. - Leading manufacturers are performing well in order acquisition, while second and third-tier manufacturers face poor order visibility, leading them to lower prices to secure orders [21]. - Some first-tier manufacturers' distributors are responding positively to price increases, while third-tier manufacturers struggle with pricing power, often resorting to low-price strategies [22]. Overseas Demand - In Europe, component prices have been adjusted downward, leading to an influx of low-priced components, with overall demand gradually declining as summer holidays approach [24]. - In India, DCR component prices have slightly increased due to government projects, while imported components have seen a slight decrease due to supply surplus [24]. - In the United States, FOB product prices remain stable, with trade policy fluctuations expected in July and August, leading to increased market caution [24].