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每周观察 | 预估2026年AI服务器出货量将年增超28%;2027年全球DRAM供给或将上调;存储器产业产值逐年创高;全球电视出货区域占比变化…
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-23 04:05
Group 1 - The global AI server shipment is expected to grow by over 28% annually by 2026, driven by increased investments from North American cloud service providers [2] - The demand for AI inference services is leading to a replacement and expansion cycle for general servers, with an overall server shipment growth forecast of 12.8% in 2026 compared to 2025 [2] Group 2 - Micron Technology plans to acquire PSMC's factory in Tainan for $1.8 billion, which will enhance Micron's advanced DRAM production capacity and improve PSMC's mature process DRAM supply, potentially leading to an upward revision of global DRAM supply by 2027 [4] Group 3 - The storage market is projected to reach a new peak in 2027, with an expected annual growth rate exceeding 50%, driven by the structural changes brought by AI and the increasing demand for high-bandwidth, large-capacity, and low-latency DRAM products [6] - The overall storage industry value is anticipated to reach $551.6 billion in 2026 and $842.7 billion in 2027, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase [6] Group 4 - TCL and Sony have signed a memorandum of cooperation to establish a joint venture, aiming to enhance their market share in the television sector, potentially approaching that of Samsung Electronics by 2027 [9]
光伏周价格 | 上游累库承压下行,下游成本支撑回暖
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-23 04:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and the impact of external factors such as export tax policies on market conditions. Group 1: Polysilicon - Supply side: Industry inventory has exceeded 510,000 tons and continues to accumulate, leading to increased operational pressure on polysilicon companies due to high inventory levels [4] - Demand side: The downstream silicon wafer segment has initiated a price reduction, which is pressuring upstream polysilicon prices as the demand for high-priced polysilicon decreases [5] - Price trend: Market prices are declining, with some polysilicon prices touching the 53-54 RMB/kg range, indicating a risk of further price declines due to supply and demand pressures [6] Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Supply side: The silicon wafer industry inventory has surpassed 22 GW and continues to accumulate, with a clear market differentiation where leading companies aim to maintain prices while second and third-tier manufacturers are forced to lower prices [7] - Demand side: The reduction in production in the downstream battery segment is significantly greater than in the silicon wafer segment, exacerbating the mismatch in supply and demand [8] - Price trend: Prices for second and third-tier manufacturers have dropped to 1.25 RMB/W for 183N, 1.35 RMB/W for 210RN, and 1.55 RMB/W for 210N, with risks of further declines due to inventory pressures and weak downstream demand [9] Group 3: Battery Cells - Supply side: Battery inventory remains stable at around 6-8 days, with significant supply contraction as manufacturers reduce production, alleviating inventory pressure [10] - Demand side: The implementation of export tax rebates has led to a temporary surge in overseas market demand, supporting price increases [11] - Price trend: Despite rising silver prices increasing non-silicon costs, major manufacturers' transaction prices have risen to 0.41-0.43 RMB/W, with expectations of passive price increases due to cost pressures and improved supply-demand dynamics [11] Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - Supply side: Increased shipment volumes have led to a rapid decrease in module inventory, with leading companies raising prices due to low inventory levels [12] - Demand side: There is a notable "internal weakness and external strength" market differentiation, with domestic demand remaining weak while overseas orders surge due to export tax policies [13] - Price trend: Spot prices have increased, with major manufacturers' transaction prices generally rising to 0.8-0.85 RMB/W, supported by rapid inventory depletion and strong external demand [14]
研报 | AI运算架构升级推升存储器市场产值有望于2027年再创高峰,预估年增率超过50%
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-22 06:18
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that AI innovation is driving structural changes in the market, leading to an increased demand for storage solutions, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, which are essential for AI infrastructure [2][6]. DRAM Market Analysis - In 2025, the DRAM market value is projected to reach $1.657 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73%, significantly outpacing NAND Flash's $697 million value [4]. - The demand for DRAM is expected to surge due to increased capital expenditures by North American cloud service providers (CSPs) in the second half of 2025, driven by accelerated AI server deployments [4]. - The price of DRAM has seen substantial increases, with a quarterly rise of 53-58% in Q4 2025, and expectations of over 60% growth in Q1 2026 [6]. NAND Flash Market Analysis - The NAND Flash market is also experiencing significant growth, with a projected annual increase of 112% in 2026, reaching a value of $1.473 billion [7]. - The demand for high IOPS enterprise SSDs is expected to rise due to the evolving needs of AI applications, particularly in accessing large vector databases [7]. - The ongoing shortage in the memory market is likely to maintain the pricing power with suppliers, ensuring continued revenue growth in the sector [7]. Overall Market Outlook - The overall memory market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with revenue growth expected to persist until 2027, driven by sustained demand for DRAM and NAND Flash in AI applications [7].
面板价格观察 | 1月电视面板涨价,显示器、笔电面板需求呈转强趋势
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-21 09:41
Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, TV panel prices are expected to rise, while monitor panel prices remain stable and laptop panel prices are projected to decline due to various market dynamics [3][5][6]. Group 1: TV Panel Market - Despite being a traditional off-season, TV panel demand remains strong as major brands are actively stocking up to gain market share, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation [3][5]. - January is expected to see price increases for various TV panel sizes, including a $1 increase for 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch panels [3][5]. - Panel manufacturers plan to reduce production in February, which supports the upward price trend for TV panels in the first quarter [3][5]. Group 2: Monitor Panel Market - The demand for LCD monitor panels has shown signs of improvement, with some brands proactively stocking up to mitigate rising procurement costs [5]. - Open Cell panels are anticipated to reflect price increases first, with mainstream sizes like 23.8-inch IPS and 27-inch IPS expected to rise by $0.1 to $0.2 [5][6]. - Overall, the price of LCD monitor panel modules is expected to remain stable [5]. Group 3: Laptop Panel Market - In January, despite being a traditional off-season for laptop demand, brand clients are increasing their orders due to rising component prices, aiming to maximize output before prices rise further [6]. - Laptop panel prices are expected to continue their downward trend, with TN models projected to decrease by $0.1 and IPS models by $0.2 [6].
研报 | TCL携手索尼成立合资公司,预估2027年合并电视的市占率将接近三星电子
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-21 09:41
Core Insights - TCL and Sony have signed a memorandum of cooperation to discuss a strategic partnership in the home entertainment sector, aiming to establish a joint venture to take over Sony's home entertainment business [3] - The new company will be 51% owned by TCL and 49% by Sony, focusing on television and home audio equipment, with operations in the global market [3] - TCL has seen a significant increase in television shipments, becoming the second-largest TV brand globally by 2024, with a projected shipment of 31 million units and a market share of 15.7% in 2025 [3] TCL's Growth and Market Position - Since surpassing 20 million TV shipments in 2019, TCL's market share has been steadily increasing, positioning it as a major player in the global television market [3] - By 2027, the combined market share of TCL and Sony is expected to approach 20% [5] - The partnership is anticipated to enhance TCL's supply chain capabilities, particularly in Mini LED and OLED panel production [3][4] Sony's Market Challenges - Sony's television shipments peaked at 21.5 million units in 2010 but are projected to fall below 400,000 units by 2025, resulting in a market share of only 1.9% [4] - The company has shifted its product strategy to focus on the mid-to-high-end market due to increased competition from Chinese brands [4] - Sony's reliance on external suppliers for high-end panels is expected to change with the formation of the joint venture, leading to a more integrated procurement strategy [4][6] Industry Trends - The trend indicates a clear exit of Japanese TV brands from the market, with Chinese brands expected to capture nearly 50% of the market share [5][6] - The joint venture is projected to further solidify the dominance of Chinese brands in the global television market, with a significant shift in market power anticipated [6]
最新面板价格趋势(2026年1月)
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-20 09:01
Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights that television panel prices have increased in January 2026, while monitor panel prices remained stable, and laptop panel prices have decreased overall [2][4][10]. Group 2: Television Panels - The average price for a 65-inch television panel is $169, up by $1 from the previous month, representing a 0.6% increase [4]. - The average price for a 55-inch television panel is $122, also up by $1, with a 0.8% increase [4]. - The average price for a 43-inch television panel is $64, reflecting a $1 increase and a 1.6% rise [4]. - The average price for a 32-inch television panel is $35, which is $1 higher than the previous month, marking a 2.9% increase [4]. Group 3: Monitor Panels - Monitor panel prices have remained stable since early June 2025 [6]. - The average price for a 27-inch IPS panel is $63, with a price range between $57.6 and $65.8 [7]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS panel is $49.9, with prices ranging from $47.1 to $51.4 [8]. Group 4: Laptop Panels - Laptop panel prices have seen an overall decrease this month [10]. - The average price for a 17.3-inch TN panel is $37.8, down by $0.2, a decrease of 0.5% [10]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS panel is $39.8, also down by $0.2, reflecting a 0.5% decrease [10]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN panel is $26.8, down by $0.1, a decrease of 0.4% [10]. - The average price for an 11.6-inch TN panel is $25, down by $0.1, also a 0.4% decrease [10].
研报 | 预估2026年全球AI服务器出货年增逾28%,ASIC类别占比扩大
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-20 09:01
Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in the AI server market, driven by increased investments from North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) and the rising demand for AI infrastructure, predicting a global AI server shipment growth of over 28% in 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Growth Projections - Global server shipments are expected to grow by 12.8% in 2026, with AI server shipments contributing to this growth at over 28% [5][6]. - Major CSPs like Google and Microsoft are anticipated to increase their procurement of general servers to meet the rising demand for inference traffic [5][7]. Group 2: Technological Developments - The server market from 2024 to 2025 will focus on training advanced large language models (LLMs) using AI servers equipped with GPUs and HBM for parallel computing [6]. - By the second half of 2025, the development of AI inference services will accelerate, with CSPs shifting towards monetization and profit models [6]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - The total capital expenditure of major North American CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, is projected to increase by 40% in 2026, driven by large-scale infrastructure investments and the replacement of older general servers [7]. - Google and Microsoft are expected to be the most aggressive in increasing their general server procurement to support daily inference traffic demands [7]. Group 4: AI Server Market Dynamics - The AI server market in 2026 will be primarily driven by North American CSPs, government sovereign cloud projects, and the acceleration of ASIC development by large CSPs [8]. - GPU is expected to account for 69.7% of AI chip usage, with NVIDIA's GB300 models becoming the mainstream shipment [8]. Group 5: ASIC Server Developments - The shipment share of ASIC AI servers is projected to rise to 27.8% in 2026, marking the highest level since 2023, with growth rates surpassing those of GPU AI servers [8]. - Google is expected to lead the ASIC market, with significant investments in self-developed ASICs for its cloud services and external sales [8].
研报 | 美光收购力积电铜锣晶圆厂,2027年全球DRAM供给或将上修
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-19 09:02
Core Insights - Micron Technology plans to acquire PSMC's facility in Taoyuan for $1.8 billion, establishing a long-term partnership for advanced DRAM packaging, which is expected to enhance Micron's advanced process DRAM capacity and improve PSMC's mature process DRAM supply, with global DRAM supply projected to increase by 2027 [2][3] Group 1: Micron's Acquisition and Capacity Expansion - The acquisition includes land and buildings, with Micron expected to gradually move existing and newly ordered equipment into the facility from 2026 to 2027, focusing on advanced process DRAM front-end equipment, with production expected to start in 2027 [3] - The first phase of the Taoyuan facility is anticipated to contribute over 10% of Micron's global capacity in Q4 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategic Moves - In Q3 2025, Micron held a 25.7% revenue market share in the global DRAM industry, ranking third, and is actively acquiring facilities to shorten capacity construction timelines [4] - Prior to the Taoyuan acquisition, Micron had already acquired two AUO facilities in Tainan, an AUO facility in Taichung, and a Glorytek facility in Taichung for various purposes including wafer probing and HBM TSV [4] Group 3: Implications for PSMC - PSMC's existing DRAM capacity primarily uses 25nm and 38nm processes, limiting its DDR4 product line to smaller capacities; however, a collaboration with Micron is expected to allow PSMC to gain authorization for 1Y nm process within a year, potentially leading to further authorization for 1Z nm process [5] - This collaboration will enhance PSMC's competitiveness in the consumer DRAM market while expanding output without competing directly with Micron's advanced product lines [5]
最新报告 | TrendForce人形机器人产业研究--1Q26季度报告出刊
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-16 06:24
Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from functional exploration to commercial implementation by 2026, with significant technological differentiation and market expansion observed globally [2] - The focus has shifted from pure hardware development to integrated soft and hard solutions, driven by advancements in key components like high-capacity memory and electronic skin [2] Industry Dynamics - Developers are now prioritizing the practical application of humanoid robots, moving towards mass production and real-world use cases [3] - Companies like Figure AI and 1X are targeting the home market with robots that feature soft fabric coverings, while Chinese firms such as Yushu, Xiaopeng, Midea, and others are focusing on diverse forms to enhance operational efficiency in specific industrial or outdoor scenarios [3][8] Key Component Analysis - The cost structure of the humanoid robot supply chain is becoming clearer, with the motion layer accounting for approximately 55% of the BOM cost, followed by the cognitive layer at 23%, the sensing layer at 15%, and the power layer at 7% [4] - Memory specifications are increasing due to AI model demands, starting from 32GB and moving towards a mainstream of 64-128GB; core actuation components like planetary roller screws are becoming essential for high thrust requirements [4] Quarterly Trend Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 shows a trend towards practical and structural transformation in the humanoid robot industry, with manufacturers focusing on task execution capabilities post soft-hard integration [5] - Products with simpler designs that lower manufacturing barriers and provide commercial value are emerging, creating a faster path to mass production [5]
每周观察 | 晶圆厂正酝酿调涨八英寸代工价格;预估2026年Q2起智能手机生产承压明显…
TrendForce集邦· 2026-01-16 06:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipated price increase in eight-inch wafer foundry services driven by rising AI-related power demand and production cuts by major manufacturers [2] - TrendForce's latest survey indicates a shift in the supply-demand dynamics for eight-inch wafers, with TSMC and Samsung reducing production while AI-related Power IC demand remains strong [2] - Chinese wafer manufacturers have seen their eight-inch capacity utilization rates rebound to high levels since 2025, and other regions are also receiving revised orders for 2026, prompting foundries to consider price hikes [2] Group 2 - The smartphone market is expected to face significant production pressure starting in the second quarter of 2026 due to tight supply and soaring prices of memory components [5] - As a result of increased costs, smartphone brands are likely to raise end-product prices, leading to weakened demand and production performance starting in the second quarter of 2026 [5] - Although brands have not yet significantly adjusted their production plans for the first quarter of 2026, the impact of rising end-user prices is anticipated to affect production negatively [5]