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每周观察 | 4Q25 MLCC市场供给呈明显两极化;预估2030年全球VR/MR产品出货量将达到1,440万台…
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-24 03:49
Group 1 - The global market for MLCC is expected to face increased uncertainty in Q4 2025, impacting consumer and investment confidence, which may pressure year-end spending and lead to a conservative outlook from supply chain manufacturers regarding festive demand [2] - OLEDoS technology is projected to see a rapid increase in penetration in VR/MR devices, reaching 58% by 2030, driven by breakthroughs in both supply chain and application [3] Group 2 - TrendForce is a global high-tech industry research organization focusing on various sectors including storage, AI servers, integrated circuits, semiconductor, display panels, LED, AR/VR, and renewable energy [16]
倒计时6天!与13位显示专家洞察产业未来
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-24 03:49
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of generative AI and spatial computing on various industries, with display technology at the forefront of this change, highlighting the acceleration of Micro LED commercialization and the establishment of Mini LED as a market leader, while OLED maintains its dominance in flagship smartphones and Micro OLED emerges as a prime solution for near-eye displays [2]. Industry Overview - The global display industry is at a crossroads of opportunities and challenges, with significant advancements in display technologies such as Micro LED, Mini LED, OLED, and Micro OLED [2]. - A conference titled "2025 Self-Luminous Display Industry Seminar" will be held on October 30, 2025, organized by TrendForce and its subsidiaries, featuring 13 industry experts discussing various display technologies [2]. Conference Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes topics such as the commercialization of Micro LED, innovations in MiP display technology, and the current status and future prospects of LED cinema screens [6][7]. - Key presentations will cover advancements in Micro LED technology, including the role of silicon substrate GaN technology and the exploration of new opportunities in AR glasses [7][8]. Supporting Organizations - The event is supported by various organizations including Absen, TCL Huaxing, and others, indicating a collaborative effort within the industry to address current trends and challenges [9].
光伏周价格 | 终端需求疲软,光伏价格拐点将至?
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-23 05:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the solar photovoltaic industry, highlighting inventory levels, production trends, and price movements across various segments including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. Polysilicon - The overall inventory in the polysilicon industry is approximately 420,000 tons, with a continuing trend of accumulation due to high inventory levels at downstream crystal pulling factories and rising expectations of wafer price declines, leading to cautious procurement strategies [4]. - Major polysilicon producers in Sichuan and Yunnan plan to halt production in November, while new capacity from Xinte and Dongfang in Ningxia is expected to ramp up slowly, resulting in an estimated month-on-month decrease of about 10,000 tons in overall polysilicon output for November [5]. - Despite intentions from polysilicon companies to raise prices due to storage expectations and price control policies, actual transaction prices have not increased. It is anticipated that polysilicon prices will remain stable at high levels with limited market activity from November to December [6]. Wafers - Current wafer inventory stands at approximately 20 GW, with an increase of about 10 million pieces week-on-week. Downstream procurement willingness is generally low, and integrated companies primarily focus on polysilicon processing, leading to a slight decline in direct procurement demand [7]. - In response to market pressures, strategies among wafer manufacturers are diverging. Leading companies maintain firm pricing due to price control guidance, while second and third-tier companies are lowering prices to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in an overall downward shift in wafer transaction prices [8]. Cells - Battery inventory remains at around 5-7 days, with a structural differentiation where 210 RN sizes dominate inventory, while 183 N sizes are seeing an increase in inventory due to declining demand from India. The 210 N size has very low inventory due to strong phase demand [9]. - The 183 N battery prices are declining due to increased low-price orders influenced by reduced demand from India, while 210 RN prices are expected to remain stable at low levels due to high inventory. The 210 N size may see slight price increases due to delivery expectations from a few concentrated projects [10]. Modules - Current demand for modules is weak, primarily driven by a few domestic concentrated projects, with distributed and overseas demand remaining relatively low. The 720W version in domestic concentrated projects shows strong demand, with prices generally rising above 0.7 RMB/W and good transaction conditions, although there is a risk of rapid price corrections after the delivery peak [11]. - Conventional module inventories remain high, with prices concentrated around 0.65-0.68 RMB/W, facing difficulties in sales. Overall, the weak terminal demand and insufficient order reserves for module companies suggest potential downward pressure on prices across the entire industry chain [11].
研报 | 2025年第四季度的节庆消费需求或趋保守,MLCC供给两极化加剧
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-21 04:12
Core Insights - The global MLCC market is facing increased uncertainty in Q4 2025, impacting consumer and investment confidence, which may pressure year-end consumer spending [2] - Some smartphone brands have reduced Q4 orders by 12-15%, while laptop demand has decreased by 8-10% [2] - AI Server orders continue to grow but are concentrated among a few ODM manufacturers like Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron [2] - The iPhone 17 series has seen unexpectedly strong shipments, leading to a 5% month-on-month increase in orders for MLCC suppliers like Murata and Taiyo Yuden, but this is insufficient to offset the overall market demand decline [2][3] - The MLCC market is polarized, with major players benefiting from AI Server and Apple product demand, while other manufacturers face weak demand in mobile and laptop sectors [3] Market Dynamics - Murata's MLCC shipments exceeded 140 billion units in September, setting a historical record [3] - The B/B Ratio (book-to-bill ratio) has declined significantly for other manufacturers due to cautious inventory management amid weak demand [3] - Suppliers are adjusting production capacity, enhancing automation, and sourcing local materials to reduce costs in response to market challenges [3] - The overall MLCC market is supported by AI infrastructure, but consumer electronics demand remains weak, exacerbated by global uncertainties [3] - It is anticipated that only high-end MLCC revenues will maintain steady growth, while the outlook for consumer-grade MLCC orders is bleak [3]
面板价格观察 | 预估10月份起电视面板价格下行压力将逐渐扩大
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-21 04:12
Group 1: Core Insights - The overall demand for TV panels has weakened as brand customers' procurement momentum declines after the peak season, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [5][6] - Panel manufacturers are implementing capacity adjustments, but this has not yet changed the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in increased pressure on TV panel prices starting in October [6][7] - The price trends for various TV panel sizes in October indicate that 32-inch and 43-inch panels are expected to remain stable, while 50-inch and 55-inch panels may decrease by $1, and 65-inch and 75-inch panels may decrease by $2 [6][7] Group 2: Monitor and Notebook Panel Insights - The demand for monitor panels has also weakened, with only limited domestic projects providing some support; prices for mainstream specifications are expected to remain stable [7][8] - In the notebook panel segment, most brand customers are experiencing a correction in demand, leading to a softening of panel prices as manufacturers aim to maintain relationships with clients; low-end TN models are expected to remain stable, while some IPS models may see a decrease of $0.1 [8]
最新面板价格趋势(2025年10月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-20 09:03
Core Insights - The article discusses the price trends of various display panels as reported by TrendForce, indicating a slight decrease in prices for certain television and laptop panels in October 2025, while monitor panel prices remained stable [2][6]. Price Trends by Application - **Television Panels**: - 65-inch TV panel average price is $171, down by $2 or 1.2% from the previous month, with a range of $165 to $174 [6]. - 55-inch TV panel average price is $123, down by $1 or 0.8%, with a range of $117 to $126 [6]. - 43-inch TV panel average price is $64, with a range of $62 to $66 [7]. - 32-inch TV panel average price is $35, with a range of $34 to $36 [8]. - **Monitor Panels**: - 27-inch IPS panel average price is $63, with a range of $57.6 to $65.8 [10]. - 23.8-inch IPS panel average price is $49.9, with a range of $47.1 to $51.4 [11]. - **Laptop Panels**: - 17.3-inch TN panel average price is $38.2, down by $0.1 or 0.3%, with a range of $37.6 to $39.7 [12]. - 15.6-inch Value IPS panel average price is $40.2, down by $0.1 or 0.2%, with a range of $38.5 to $41.8 [12]. - 14.0-inch TN panel price has stabilized at $26.9 since July 2024, with a range of $26.4 to $28.1 [12]. - 11.6-inch TN panel price has also stabilized at $25.1 since July 2024, with a range of $24.2 to $26.5 [12].
研报 | 供应链与应用端双重突破,预估2030年OLEDoS于VR/MR渗透率将快速增长至58%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-20 09:03
Core Insights - Apple is re-entering the market with an upgraded Vision Pro, focusing on enhancing computational performance and improving weight distribution in VR/MR headsets [2] - The OLEDoS display technology is expected to see a significant increase in penetration, projected to reach 58% in VR/MR applications by 2030 [2] Market Performance - Global VR/MR product shipments are estimated to decline to 5.6 million units in 2025 due to underperformance from major brands like Meta, Apple, and Sony [4] - Long-term projections indicate that global shipments could reach 14.4 million units by 2030, driven by software and hardware upgrades from key brands [4] Technology and Supply Chain - Display technology is crucial for pricing VR/MR products, with high-cost performance LCDs remaining mainstream; however, OLEDoS is expected to gain traction as Chinese suppliers expand production [5] - Companies like Seeya, BOE, and Sidtek are establishing 12-inch production lines, which will help reduce OLEDoS production costs through improved yield rates [5] Application Development - Apple and Samsung are enhancing user experience through application platforms and generative AI, with Apple's Vision Pro utilizing the new M5 chip for better performance and battery life [5] - Samsung is collaborating with Google and Qualcomm to launch the Galaxy XR, featuring a 4K OLEDoS display, integrating applications across mobile and tablet devices [5] Industry Trends - Meta is focusing on its ecosystem while planning to use 0.9-inch OLEDoS with Pancake optical architecture to meet the demand for thinner VR/MR products [6] - OLEDoS is anticipated to penetrate from mid-to-high-end markets into mainstream markets, becoming a key driver for the transformation of the VR/MR industry [6]
每周观察 | 2026年CSP资本支出预计达5200亿美元;下半年晶圆代工产能利用率优于预期;NAND厂商加速抢滩大容量SSD…
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-17 04:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in capital expenditures by major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) driven by the growing demand for AI servers and the expansion of data centers, with a projected capital expenditure of $520 billion by 2026 [2] - The combined capital expenditure of eight major CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, is expected to exceed $420 billion in 2025, representing a 61% increase compared to the combined expenditures of 2023 and 2024 [2] Group 2 - The wafer foundry capacity utilization rate for the second half of 2025 is expected to outperform previous expectations due to low inventory levels, the peak sales season for smartphones, and sustained strong AI demand, leading some foundries to consider price increases for certain tight-process platforms [4] Group 3 - The demand for AI inference applications is driving the need for high-capacity storage solutions, prompting HDD and SSD suppliers to expand their offerings of large-capacity storage products, including Nearline SSDs with capacities of 122TB and 245TB [5] - The HDD market is facing a significant supply gap, which is encouraging NAND Flash manufacturers to accelerate their technological advancements to meet the growing demand [5]
DTS2025最新议程!破解LED显示屏未来机遇与挑战
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-17 04:11
Core Viewpoint - The global LED display industry is entering a complex and dynamic development phase, presenting unprecedented opportunities and challenges for companies [2][3]. Group 1: Technological Opportunities and Challenges - The primary opportunity and challenge stem from the choice and breakthrough of technological routes, particularly in response to the explosion of ultra-high-definition display demand. Companies must face the core issue of achieving continuous pixel pitch reduction at lower costs and higher yields [2]. - COB (Chip on Board) and MIP (Micro LED Integrated Package) packaging technologies are gaining attention. COB technology is recognized for its advantages in protection and integrated black screen effects, while MIP aims to find a new balance between display quality, cost control, and production efficiency [2][3]. - The evolution of these technologies and their performance in different application scenarios directly impacts companies' product strategies and market competitiveness [2]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Compliance Development - Advances in LED display technology have broadened application boundaries, extending from traditional fields like outdoor advertising and sports venues to emerging markets such as corporate meetings, security monitoring, smart education, virtual shooting, and AR/VR [2]. - However, rapid market growth is accompanied by issues such as product homogenization, price wars, and lack of standards. Companies face the challenge of meeting diverse and customized demands while ensuring product reliability and safety, achieving high-quality development under compliance [2][3]. Group 3: Global Macro Market Opportunities and Challenges - Global economic fluctuations, regional supply chain restructuring, and changes in the international trade environment add uncertainty to the overseas expansion of LED display companies [3]. - Companies must navigate demand differences, cultural backgrounds, and entry standards across different regional markets, which raises the bar for their global operational capabilities [3]. - Identifying growth points and avoiding potential risks in a complex international environment requires a more macro and comprehensive industry insight [3]. Group 4: Upcoming Industry Event - On October 30, TrendForce will host the 2025 Self-Luminous Display Industry Seminar in Shenzhen, featuring a keynote report on global LED display market opportunities and challenges by TrendForce's research director [4]. - The event will gather industry leaders from companies like TCL Huaxing, BOE, and others to discuss the future of display technology [4].
光伏周价格 | 光伏价格走势如何?反“内卷”政策执行力度将是关键
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-16 06:05
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain prices are expected to remain stable at high levels due to policy support, despite pressures from supply and demand dynamics [17]. Group 1: Polysilicon Segment - The overall inventory in the industry has risen to over 410,000 tons, with polysilicon inventory continuing to show a slight accumulation trend this month [5]. - Market transactions for polysilicon are generally sluggish, with a decrease in order volume month-on-month. Prices remain stable due to stable operating rates at wafer companies and their substantial polysilicon inventory [5]. - Some polysilicon manufacturers are experiencing maintenance or production cuts, leading to limited sales volumes and fewer new orders, with delivery times extended to November [5][6]. Group 2: Wafer Segment - Current wafer inventory is around 19 GW, with no significant changes in total volume, but a continued focus on 210RN wafers, which are facing shipping pressures and price declines [8]. - The demand for 183N wafers has seen a temporary pullback, with some second and third-tier manufacturers resorting to low-price sales. Demand for 210N remains relatively strong, keeping prices firm [8]. - Wafer prices are under pressure, with risks of decline, although recent self-discipline meetings have provided some confidence for price stabilization or even increases [9]. Group 3: Cell Segment - Battery inventory has risen to about 7 days, showing a slight accumulation trend due to reduced shipments during holidays and weak terminal demand [10]. - The demand for 183N batteries has decreased overseas, while 210RN demand remains weak. However, domestic demand for 210N is relatively optimistic [10]. - Short-term price pressures are evident for 210RN and 183N batteries, with potential for price corrections, while 210N maintains a balanced supply-demand relationship, providing price support [11]. Group 4: Module Segment - Overall terminal market demand is not optimistic, with overseas installation demand experiencing a temporary decline, while domestic demand is primarily supported by centralized projects [12]. - Upstream price increases are pushing up downstream costs, but module manufacturers are facing weak terminal demand, leading to limited price increases despite higher bidding prices [12]. - The impact of anti-involution policies will be crucial in determining future price trends in the industry [12].