TrendForce集邦
Search documents
研报 | 预估2025年iPhone 17系列出货量小幅成长,Air系列将引领产品线变革
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-04 09:04
Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to launch four flagship models: iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Air (tentative name), iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, with upgrades in design, processor performance, thermal management, and camera capabilities, which are expected to boost sales [2][6]. Product Overview - The iPhone 17 series is projected to see a 3.5% increase in shipment volume compared to the iPhone 16 series in 2024, with the Pro series remaining the main sales driver [2]. - The iPhone 17 Air represents Apple's entry into the lightweight flagship market, but its reduced battery capacity and simplified camera specifications may not fully meet consumer demands for high battery life and camera quality [2][7]. Hardware Specifications - All models will be equipped with the A19 processor, while the Pro series will feature the A19 Pro processor [6]. - The RAM for the iPhone 17 Air, Pro, and Pro Max will be expanded to 12GB, with storage options starting from 256GB up to 1TB [7]. - The camera system will see significant upgrades, with front cameras increasing from 12MP to 24MP and rear cameras upgraded to 48MP, particularly in the Pro series [7]. Pricing Strategy - The base model iPhone 17 is expected to maintain last year's pricing, while the Air, Pro, and Pro Max models may see price increases of $50 to $100 due to innovations and upgrades [7]. - The iPhone 17 Air is positioned to compete with the Samsung S25 Edge in terms of pricing [7]. Product Line Strategy - The introduction of the Air series and future foldable models indicates Apple's strategy to diversify its product line to attract a broader consumer base [7]. - TrendForce suggests that Apple's product release schedule may shift to launch a mid-range model in the first half of the year and the Air, Pro, Pro Max, and foldable models in the second half, creating a more diverse and clearly segmented product matrix [7].
光伏周价格 | 头部企业“抱团”涨价,光伏产业链价格易涨难跌
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-04 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the upward price movement across various segments despite an oversupply in the market and cautious demand from downstream customers [4][6][11]. Group 1: Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon continues to increase, with monthly output expected to reach around 130,000 tons, an increase of approximately 8,000 tons from August [4]. - Market transactions remain cautious, with lower trading volumes and a lack of strong purchasing intent from downstream customers [5]. - Driven by national policies, polysilicon prices have not decreased despite the supply-demand imbalance, with the highest quotes reaching 55 RMB/kg [6]. Group 2: Silicon Wafers - The overall inventory of silicon wafers remains stable, but there are significant structural issues, particularly with 210RN wafers facing oversupply [8]. - Demand varies by size, with 183N and 210N wafers showing balanced demand, supporting price increases, while 210RN wafers struggle [8]. - Prices for 183N and 210N wafers are expected to rise by 0.05 RMB per piece due to healthy supply-demand relationships, while 210R prices are likely to remain unchanged [9]. Group 3: Solar Cells - The inventory levels of solar cells are relatively healthy, but there is a clear structural disparity in supply and demand [10]. - The demand for 210N high-efficiency cells is improving, providing solid support for prices, while 183N cells maintain competitiveness despite production-demand mismatches [9]. - Solar cell prices are expected to follow the upward trend of silicon wafer prices, indicating a challenging pricing environment [10]. Group 4: Solar Modules - The continuous rise in upstream prices is pushing up production costs for solar modules, yet terminal demand remains weak [11]. - Module manufacturers are raising quotes to above 0.7 RMB, but actual transaction prices hover around 0.68 RMB per watt, indicating a struggle to pass on cost increases [11]. - Despite the challenges, the price outlook for modules remains optimistic, supported by cost, policy, and demand factors, with a low likelihood of price reductions [11].
研报 | 国际大厂加速投入,预估2030年AR眼镜出货量达3,210万台
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-03 06:04
Core Insights - The article discusses the growth potential of the AR market, particularly with the upcoming release of AR glasses prototypes by international brands and Meta's anticipated launch of the Celeste AR glasses, leading to increased market attention [2][5]. Industry Trends - According to TrendForce, global AR shipments are expected to reach 600,000 units in 2025, driven by the introduction of AR devices and a decrease in OLEDoS product prices [2]. - The AR market is projected to experience strong growth momentum, with shipments expected to reach 32.1 million units by 2030, as high-end full-color AR technology matures and more sophisticated products from major international companies are released [5]. Regional Market Dynamics - Currently, China is the primary market for AR shipments, but with the entry of tech giants like Meta and Google, China's market share is expected to decline to 50.2% by 2030 [5]. Technological Developments - AI technology is helping consumers form clearer expectations for AR glasses applications, contributing to a gradual consensus on market standards [5]. - Brands are setting specific requirements for light engines, such as power consumption below 300mW, volume under 1cc, and weight under 3g, which, while challenging for suppliers, will help standardize specifications [5][6]. Market Standardization - Although standardization may limit brand differentiation and product iteration, it aids in achieving economies of scale and reducing costs, making it easier to meet consumer price expectations and attract more potential users to the AR glasses market [6]. - The active involvement of international companies like Meta and Google is accelerating supply chain development, with suppliers such as LUMUS, Goertek, JBD, Xreal, and Omnivision expected to benefit from market expansion [6].
研报 | 2Q25 DRAM营收季增17.1%,SK海力士市占扩大
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-02 06:47
Sept. 2, 2025 产业洞察 TrendForce集邦咨询表示,2025年第二季DRAM产业因一般型DRAM (Conventional DRAM)合约价 上涨、出货量显著增长,加上HBM出货规模扩张, 整体营收为316.3亿美元,季增17.1% 。平均销售 单价(ASP)随着PC OEM、智能手机、CSP业者的采购动能增温,加速DRAM原厂库存去化,多数产 品的合约价也因此止跌翻涨。 | Ranking | Company | | Revenue (US$M) | | Market Share | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2Q25 | 1025 | QoQ | 2025 | 1025 | | 1 | SK hynix | 12,229 | 9,718 | 25.8% | 38.7% | 36.0% | | 2 | Samsung | 10,350 | 9,100 | 13.7% | 32.7% | 33.7% | | 3 | Micron | 6,950 | 6,575 | 5.7% | 22.0% | 24.3% | ...
研报 | 2Q25晶圆代工营收季增14.6%创新高,台积电市占达70%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-01 06:21
Core Insights - The overall revenue of the top ten foundries reached over $41.7 billion in Q2 2025, marking a record high with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.6% driven by pre-stockpiling effects from consumer subsidies in China and new product launches in the second half of the year [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The second quarter saw a strong recovery in foundry capacity utilization and shipment volume, primarily due to seasonal demand for new products in smartphones, laptops, and servers [2]. - The advanced process technology is expected to boost revenue significantly, with high-priced wafers contributing positively to the industry's overall performance [2]. Group 2: Company Revenue Performance - TSMC reported a revenue of $30.24 billion in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.5%, achieving a market share of 70.2% [5][6]. - Samsung's revenue reached approximately $3.16 billion, with a 9.2% quarter-on-quarter increase, maintaining a market share of 7.3% [5][7]. - SMIC's revenue slightly decreased by 1.7% to around $2.21 billion due to shipment delays and ASP decline, resulting in a market share of 5.1% [5][8]. - UMC's revenue grew by 8.2% to $1.90 billion, with a market share of 4.4% [5][9]. - GlobalFoundries achieved a revenue of nearly $1.69 billion, increasing by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a market share of 3.9% [5][10]. - HuaHong Group's revenue increased by approximately 5% to $1.06 billion, maintaining a market share of 2.5% [5][11]. - Vanguard's revenue was close to $0.38 billion, with a 4.3% increase, ranking seventh [5][12]. - Tower's revenue reached $0.37 billion, growing by 3.9% [5][13]. - Nexchip's revenue was $0.36 billion, with a nearly 3% increase [5][14]. - PSMC's revenue grew by 5.4% to $0.35 billion, ranking tenth [5][15].
光伏周价格 | 反“内卷”政策发酵:光伏产业链四大环节价格逆势上涨
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-29 03:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics, price trends, and the impact of policies on various segments including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules [5][11][13]. Supply Situation - The polysilicon market is experiencing a continuous increase in supply due to new production capacity and existing lines ramping up output, with expected monthly increments exceeding 20,000 tons [5]. - The wafer market is facing structural oversupply, with total inventory reaching approximately 20 GW, primarily driven by the 210RN segment [10]. Demand and Inventory - Despite the increase in supply, demand has not kept pace, leading to a cautious market with downstream customers showing weak purchasing intentions. Polysilicon inventory is expected to surpass 400,000 tons by the end of the month [6]. - In the wafer segment, demand remains relatively flat, with battery manufacturers adopting a cautious approach to procurement, resulting in increased inventory pressure [11]. Price Trends - Although the supply-demand fundamentals are weak, prices are showing an upward trend due to market sentiment influenced by production cut rumors and anti-"involution" policy expectations. Prices for polysilicon have generally risen above RMB 50 per kilogram [7]. - In the wafer segment, prices have unexpectedly increased despite oversupply, driven by a collective pricing strategy among leading companies in response to policy expectations [11][15]. - The battery segment is witnessing a firm price increase, supported by rising production costs from upstream materials and a proactive pricing response from battery manufacturers [13]. Module Segment - The module production is expected to see a slight increase in September, indicating manufacturers' confidence in market prospects [14]. - Module prices are supported by multiple factors, including a consensus against below-cost competition, leading to a stable pricing environment [15].
每周观察 | 英伟达机器人“新大脑”推升芯片市场规模有望达4,800万美元以上;2Q25 NAND Flash营收季增逾20%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-29 03:44
Group 1 - NVIDIA's newly launched Jetson Thor is considered the physical intelligence core for robots, featuring Blackwell GPU and 128 GB memory, achieving 2070 FP4 TFLOPS AI computing power, which is 7.5 times that of the previous Jetson Orin [2] - The introduction of Jetson Thor enables advanced humanoid robots to process large sensory data and large language models (LLM) in real-time, enhancing their ability to see, think, and act [2] - The humanoid robot chip market is expected to exceed $4.8 billion by 2028, driven by the adoption of this technology by companies like Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, and Amazon [2] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the NAND Flash industry is projected to see a quarter-over-quarter revenue increase of over 20%, despite a slight decline in average selling prices (ASP) [4] - Major manufacturers have implemented production reduction strategies to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, resulting in significant growth in overall output [4] - The combined revenue of the top five NAND Flash manufacturers reached $14.67 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase [5]
最新报告 | 近眼显示将迎来市场成长新纪元
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-29 03:44
Core Insights - The near-eye display device market is expected to show a lackluster performance in the short term, with global shipments projected to reach 6.2 million units by 2025 [2] - The VR/MR market, particularly Meta Quest 3s, is anticipated to see a decline in shipments to 5.6 million units by 2025, while AR devices are expected to perform more steadily, with shipments reaching 600,000 units driven by new AI+AR products and decreasing OLEDoS prices [2] - Long-term growth is expected, with global near-eye display shipments projected to rise to 46.5 million units by 2030, supported by ongoing product development from major companies like Meta and Apple, and strong growth in the AR market [2] AR Display Technology Market Development - OLEDoS remains the mainstream technology in China due to its cost advantages, but other technologies pose a threat to its dominance [6] - LCoS technology is expected to gain traction in the market due to Meta's adoption, while the growth of single green LEDoS AR glasses will enhance the penetration of LEDoS technology [6] - The demand for AR devices is increasing, with expectations for shipments using high-spec full-color LEDoS technology to reach 20.9 million units by 2030, achieving a penetration rate of 65% [7] Optical Waveguide Technology and SiC Supply Alliance Analysis - The choice of optical waveguide technology is critical for AR engine modules, with diffraction waveguides currently being the mainstream but needing efficiency improvements [9] - NIL and PL are the two main processing methods for waveguides, with NIL suitable for small-scale development and PL better for mass production [9] - The trend towards larger SiC substrates is expected to enhance cost-effectiveness, with projections indicating that 8-inch SiC substrate shipments could exceed 20% by 2030, moving towards 12-inch substrates in the long term [9] AR Product Development Trends - The specifications of AR devices are becoming standardized to control costs, with mainstream panel sizes for LEDoS and LCoS ranging from 0.13 to 0.18 inches and pixel densities exceeding 5,500 PPI [10] - Chinese brands like Xreal, RayNeo, and INMO are focusing on different strategies, such as enhancing display technology and integrating AI capabilities, reflecting a shift from hardware competition to a more complex software-hardware ecosystem [10]
研报 | 2025年第二季NAND Flash营收季增逾20%,SK Group市占跃升至21%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-28 03:20
Core Insights - The NAND Flash industry experienced a slight decline in average selling prices (ASP) in Q2 2025, but a reduction in production by manufacturers helped alleviate supply-demand imbalances, leading to a significant increase in overall shipments. The top five brands collectively saw a revenue increase of 22%, reaching $14.67 billion [2][5]. Revenue and Market Share Analysis - Samsung led the market with a revenue of $5.2 billion in Q2 2025, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23.8%, capturing a market share of 32.9% [3][6]. - SK Group, which includes SK hynix and Solidigm, achieved a record revenue of $3.34 billion, up 52.5% from the previous quarter, increasing its market share to 21.1% [3][6]. - Kioxia reported revenue of $2.14 billion, an 11.4% increase, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers and a normalization of inventory levels for PCs and smartphones [3][6]. - Micron's revenue reached $2.1 billion, a modest increase of 3.7%, with a slight decline in market share to 13.3%, although it achieved record market shares in Client SSD and Data Center SSD segments [3][7]. - SanDisk's revenue grew by 12.2% to $1.9 billion, supported by a recovery in channel prices and inventory replenishment, but it lagged behind competitors in the Enterprise SSD market [3][7]. Future Outlook - In Q3 2025, demand is expected to stabilize as the effects of subsidy policies in China wane and inventory buildup by manufacturers decreases. Although ASPs may see a slight recovery, overall revenue growth in the NAND Flash industry is anticipated to slow down [5].
研报 | 英伟达机器人“新大脑”推升芯片市场规模有望于2028年达4,800万美元以上
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-26 07:19
Core Insights - NVIDIA's Jetson Thor is recognized as the physical intelligence core for robots, featuring a Blackwell GPU and 128 GB memory, achieving 2070 FP4 TFLOPS AI computing power, which is 7.5 times that of the previous Jetson Orin [2] - The humanoid robot chip market is expected to exceed $48 million by 2028, driven by the adoption of advanced robotics by companies like Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, and Amazon [2] Industry Insights - The development of humanoid robots varies by country, focusing on pilot projects in the short term, scaling manufacturing and services in the medium term, and aiming for household integration in the long term, with high-level SoCs being crucial during this phase [6] - TrendForce's previous report indicated that global humanoid robots are not expected to stabilize in households until around 2032, at which point sales could exceed 100,000 units [6] - Despite the powerful performance of the NVIDIA Jetson Thor series, its development kit is priced at $3,499, significantly higher than the previous Jetson Orin's $1,499, which may hinder widespread adoption [6] - The industry trend aims to lower humanoid robot prices for broader promotion, suggesting that companies planning simpler tasks may opt for more affordable chips [6] - NVIDIA may leverage its hardware-software integration advantage to launch more software platforms for Jetson Thor, enhancing development efficiency and task execution, thereby increasing the value of AI computing power [6]