TrendForce集邦
Search documents
研报 | 十一长假将至,LCD电视面板大厂计划调降稼动率稳运维
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-24 04:08
Core Insights - The demand for LCD TV panels is expected to slow down in Q4 2025, prompting major manufacturers like BOE, CSOT, and HKC to implement production breaks during China's National Day holiday to manage inventory levels and operational costs [2][3] Supply Side Analysis - BOE, CSOT, and Sharp plan to take 5 to 7 days off for their 10.5-generation production lines, leading to an estimated production utilization rate of around 74% for October [3] - HKC's main production lines are expected to take a 5-day break, resulting in an estimated utilization rate of approximately 77.5% for 8.6-generation panels [3] - CSOT's T1 and T2 plants are also planning a 5-day holiday, with an expected utilization rate dropping to 81.3% for 8.5-generation panels [3] Demand Side Analysis - Despite a 4.8% month-over-month decrease in demand for October compared to September, there is still some support due to preparations for the Double 11 shopping festival [3] - The production adjustments by panel manufacturers are aimed at controlling costs and alleviating potential supply-demand pressures in the TV market, which may help stabilize panel prices in October [3]
面板价格观察 | 9月电视面板价格持平,笔电面板需求第三季预估将季增5.1%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-23 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The panel prices for televisions, monitors, and laptops are expected to remain stable in September 2025, with no significant changes observed in the market dynamics [5][7][9]. Group 1: Television Panel Prices - Television panel prices for various sizes, including 65" and 55", have remained unchanged at $173 and $124 respectively, indicating a stable pricing environment [4]. - The overall demand for television panels has strengthened due to brand clients preparing for year-end promotions and increased stocking by agents [5][7]. Group 2: Monitor Panel Prices - Monitor panel demand has shown slight signs of slowing down, primarily due to some manufacturers reducing production of mainstream sizes that are currently unprofitable [8]. - Despite a tight supply situation for FHD mainstream sizes, brand clients are unwilling to compromise on prices, leading to a consensus on maintaining price stability [8]. Group 3: Laptop Panel Prices - Laptop panel demand remains strong, with an expected quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.1% in the third quarter [9]. - Brand clients are focusing on securing panel quantities while ignoring potential tariff impacts, aiming to capture more end-user demand before year-end [9]. - Although there is a competitive environment among panel manufacturers, they are hesitant to raise prices due to anticipated demand declines in the fourth quarter [9].
定档11.27,TrendForce集邦咨询MTS2026存储产业趋势研讨会开始报名
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-22 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by the AI wave, characterized by rapid technological iterations, intense market competition, explosive data growth, and geopolitical impacts on supply chains [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global storage industry is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, which are affecting supply chain stability and increasing market volatility [3]. - Consumer electronics are experiencing growth difficulties, while AI computing power demands are surging, leading storage manufacturers to invest in high-value products like HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSDs [4]. - A structural imbalance in the storage market has emerged, with DDR4 experiencing tight capacity despite strong demand, causing costs to rise and spot prices for DDR4 to exceed those of DDR5 [4][6]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The AI era is driving unprecedented demand for HBM and large-capacity SSDs, with HBM technology achieving breakthroughs in bandwidth, heat dissipation, and power optimization [6]. - The introduction of the HBM4 standard has doubled bandwidth and improved energy efficiency by 40% compared to HBM3E, positioning it as a key player in the AI storage market [6]. - NAND Flash stacking technology has surpassed 300 layers, with aspirations to reach 500 layers, significantly enhancing storage density and performance [6]. - New technologies such as Storage Class Memory (SCM), Compute Express Link (CXL), and Compute-Storage Integration (CIM) are redefining storage boundaries and creating new possibilities for AI applications [6]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - The MTS2026 conference, themed "Storage Winds, Smartly Shaping the Future," will take place on November 27, 2025, in Shenzhen, gathering over 1,000 industry elites to discuss trends and opportunities in the storage sector [9][10]. - The conference will focus on topics such as technological advancements, market dynamics, and capacity planning, including discussions on HBM technology breakthroughs and NAND Flash stacking progress [9][10]. - The event will also feature the release of the "2026 Top Ten Technology Market Trend Predictions" and the second "TechFuture Awards" ceremony, recognizing outstanding achievements in technology innovation and market development [12][17].
研报 | AI推理催化大容量储存产品结构性改变,Nearline SSD需求急升
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-22 09:04
Core Insights - The focus of AI infrastructure development in the next two years will shift towards supporting efficient inference services, leading to a demand for Nearline SSDs designed specifically for inference AI due to a severe shortage of traditional large-capacity HDDs [2][3] - Major NAND Flash suppliers are accelerating the validation and introduction of Nearline QLC NAND Flash products, which can store more data at a lower cost, addressing the growing demand for large capacity [2][3] - The competition among NAND Flash suppliers is driving the diversification of NAND Flash applications, moving from simple storage to deeper integration with AI computing [4] Group 1 - The demand for Nearline SSDs is expected to continue until 2027, with a tight supply of Enterprise SSDs anticipated in 2026 due to the expansion of inference AI applications [2] - Suppliers are actively developing new Nearline SSD products that not only exceed mainstream HDD capacities but also optimize costs and significantly reduce power consumption [3] - NAND Flash suppliers are also launching High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) products to capture market share in AI training applications, indicating a dual technology route in the industry [4] Group 2 - The competition in NAND Flash technology is characterized by two main camps: one led by SanDisk, focusing on a hybrid design of HBM and HBF, and the other represented by Samsung and Kioxia, which aims to provide more cost-effective solutions with SCM and XL-Flash technologies [4] - This technological competition is expected to enhance the integration of NAND Flash in AI operations, indicating a trend towards more diverse applications in the future [4]
最新面板价格趋势(2025年9月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-22 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The panel prices for TVs, monitors, and laptops are expected to remain stable as of September 2025, aligning with earlier forecasts by TrendForce [2]. TV Panel Prices - The average price for a 65-inch TV panel is $173, with a minimum price of $167 and a maximum of $176 [5]. - The average price for a 55-inch TV panel is $124, with a minimum price of $118 and a maximum of $127 [7]. - The average price for a 43-inch TV panel is $64, with a minimum price of $62 and a maximum of $66 [8]. - The average price for a 32-inch TV panel is $35, with a minimum price of $34 and a maximum of $36 [8]. Monitor Panel Prices - The average price for a 27-inch IPS monitor panel is $63, with a minimum price of $57.6 and a maximum of $65.8 [10]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS monitor panel is $49.9, with a minimum price of $47.1 and a maximum of $51.4 [11]. Laptop Panel Prices - The average price for a 17.3-inch TN laptop panel has remained stable at $38.3, with a minimum price of $37.7 and a maximum of $39.8 [13]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS laptop panel is expected to be $40.3, consistent with the previous month, with a minimum price of $38.6 and a maximum of $41.9 [13]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN laptop panel has stabilized at $26.9, with a minimum price of $26.4 and a maximum of $28.1 [13]. - The average price for an 11.6-inch TN laptop panel has remained stable at $25.1, with a minimum price of $24.2 and a maximum of $26.5 [13].
每周观察 | 预计2026年QLC SSD出货有望爆发性增长;英伟达尝试调升HBM4规格;全球笔电出货量;全球AR装置出货…
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-20 02:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the demand for AI-driven data is causing a severe shortage of Nearline HDDs, leading to a potential explosive growth in QLC SSD shipments by 2026 [2] - Nearline HDDs have a delivery cycle of 52 weeks, an average price of $0.015 per GB, and a maximum capacity of 32 TB, while QLC SSDs have a delivery cycle of 8 weeks, an average price of $0.05-$0.06 per GB, and a maximum capacity of 122 TB [3] Group 2 - NVIDIA is attempting to raise the specifications for HBM4, anticipating that SK Hynix will remain the largest supplier in the initial phase of HBM4 production in 2026 [2] - The global laptop market is expected to see a 2.2% year-on-year increase in shipments in 2025, reaching over 180 million units, driven by production capacity expansion in Southeast Asia [4][5] Group 3 - Meta's recent launch of the Meta Ray-Ban Display Glasses, utilizing LCoS display technology, is expected to increase the market share of LCoS products to 13% by 2026 [8]
研报 | 预计Meta AR新品推升2026年搭载LCoS产品占比上升至13%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-19 04:07
Core Insights - Meta has launched its first mass-produced AR device, the Meta Ray-Ban Display Glasses, which utilizes LCoS display technology, expected to increase the market share of LCoS display products to 13% by 2026 [2] - The global AR device shipment is projected to grow by 9.1% in 2025, reaching 600,000 units, driven by AI-enabled information prompt applications [2] - Meta's AR glasses feature a 20-degree field of view (FoV), a resolution of 600 x 600, a pixel density of 42 PPD, and a brightness of 5,000 nits, targeting the information prompt application market [2] Technology Analysis - Meta opted for LCoS full-color displays from OmniVision instead of the mainstream single green LEDoS technology combined with waveguide technology due to LCoS's maturity, cost control, and lower average power consumption [3] - The competition between LCoS and LEDoS is expected to intensify before significant breakthroughs in LEDoS technology occur, which are anticipated post-2028, potentially increasing LEDoS market share to 65% by 2030 [3] - Current challenges for LCoS include miniaturization, high brightness, and high contrast, with companies like OmniVision and Himax Display actively pursuing next-generation display technology [3]
研报 | 英伟达尝试调升HBM4规格,预期2026年SK海力士仍是最大供应商
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-18 09:04
Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape in the HBM4 market, particularly focusing on NVIDIA's efforts to enhance specifications and supply chain dynamics as it prepares for the launch of the MI450 Helios platform in 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: HBM4 Specifications and Supply Chain - NVIDIA is pushing suppliers of key components for the Vera Rubin server rack to increase product specifications, specifically targeting a Speed per Pin of 10Gbps for HBM4 [2]. - HBM4 is identified as a critical component for AI servers, with transmission speed and bandwidth being key areas for improvement [2]. - Samsung plans to upgrade its HBM4 base die process node to FinFET 4nm by the end of 2024, aiming for a transmission speed of 10Gbps, which is expected to surpass competitors SK hynix and Micron in production output [2]. Group 2: Supplier Dynamics and Market Forecast - NVIDIA's strategy includes evaluating supply capacity; if supply is insufficient or if new specifications lead to excessive energy consumption or costs, NVIDIA may reconsider upgrades or categorize products based on different supplier levels [3]. - TrendForce forecasts that SK hynix will remain the largest supplier of HBM4 in 2026, with Samsung and Micron's market share dependent on the performance of their subsequent product samples [3].
光伏周价格 | 多晶硅控产持续挺价,下游跟涨动能已显不足
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-18 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting price stability in the face of rising costs and the impact of supply and demand dynamics on various segments of the market [4][10][14]. Group 1: Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain strong due to production control signals and a significant inventory of 400,000 tons, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain prices [4][6]. - The downstream market is experiencing low transaction volumes due to high inventory levels in the crystal pulling segment, leading to a lack of purchasing motivation among downstream enterprises [5]. - The price of polysilicon has reached 55 RMB per kilogram, with expectations for further increases in the future [6]. Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Silicon wafer inventory is currently around 16 GW, with some leading companies planning significant production cuts as the holiday approaches, while most maintain high operating rates [8]. - Demand is structurally differentiated, with 183N and 210N sizes in a state of supply-demand balance, while 210R shows weaker demand and stable prices [9]. - Overall, prices for silicon wafers and downstream battery cells are nearing the limits of market acceptance, making further price increases unlikely in the short term [10]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Cells - The inventory levels for battery cells remain healthy, with specialized manufacturers maintaining around 5 days of stock [10]. - Strong demand persists in the overseas market for 183N, and 210N orders remain robust, driven by pre-holiday stocking activities [11]. - Battery cell prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand and cost pressures, but there is a risk of price corrections post-holiday as stocking demand subsides [12]. Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - Current module prices are stable, but rising upstream costs are squeezing margins, leading to production cuts among some leading manufacturers due to insufficient orders [14]. - The industry is facing stricter production and sales limits as part of a self-regulatory effort to stabilize prices across the supply chain [15].
研报 | 预估2025年全球笔电出货年增2.2%,东南亚产能持续扩张
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-17 09:01
Core Insights - The global laptop market is showing signs of recovery in 2025 despite geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties, with an expected annual shipment increase of approximately 2.2%, surpassing 180 million units [2][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second quarter of 2025 saw particularly strong shipment momentum, driven by zero tariffs on laptops imported from Southeast Asia and proactive inventory management by brands [4] - The education sector continues to stimulate demand, contributing to a 9.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments, with expectations of a 7.5% growth in the third quarter [5] Group 2: Southeast Asia's Role - Southeast Asia is emerging as a key production base outside of China, with significant investments from companies like Dell and Apple in Vietnam, leading to a projected 13.5% share of global laptop production capacity by 2025 [6] - Thailand is also becoming a notable production hub, with HP's initiatives leading to new production lines, and an expected capacity share of 6.7% by 2025 [6] - Other regions such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil are being prioritized for localized production due to government requirements, with an anticipated global capacity share of 3.7% by 2025 [6] Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand side of the global laptop market is benefiting from moderate replacement cycles and educational projects, while the supply side is diversifying due to capacity relocation and geopolitical factors [7]