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研报 | 1H25 电视品牌提前出货,推升全球市场总量年增2%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-06 05:42
Core Insights - The global TV brand shipment volume reached 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The overall shipment forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 195.71 million units, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Major brands in the first half of 2025 included Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding a market share of 65.6% [6] - TCL and Hisense experienced significant growth in shipments, with increases of 12.5% and 7.3% respectively, outperforming the market average [7] - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of 2025, with an expected annual growth of over 30% following its acquisition by Walmart [7] Group 2: Technology Trends - Mini LED TV shipments are projected to increase by 67% in 2025, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi expected to capture 62% of the market share [8] - OLED technology is anticipated to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market in 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% annual growth in OLED shipments [8] - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are expected to see a 24.4% increase in shipments, with a market penetration rate of 13.6% driven by mid-to-high-end product demand [8]
面板价格观察 | 预估8月部分电视面板价格有望止跌持平
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-06 05:42
Core Viewpoint - TrendForce predicts that TV panel prices will stabilize in August 2025, while monitor and notebook panel prices will remain steady, driven by seasonal demand and inventory adjustments [4][5][6]. Panel Price Trends - TV panel prices are expected to stop declining, with strong demand for sizes below 50 inches, while demand for larger sizes (55 inches and above) remains weak, leading to a forecasted price drop of $1 for these larger panels [5][6]. - The average prices for various TV panel sizes in August are projected to hold steady, with specific sizes like 32 inches, 43 inches, and 50 inches expected to stabilize, while larger sizes may see slight declines [4][5]. Monitor Panel Insights - Demand for monitor panels has weakened entering the third quarter, with no upward price momentum observed. Most monitor panels are currently unprofitable, leading manufacturers to limit production, which may result in shortages for some mainstream sizes [6][7]. - The expectation for August is that monitor panel prices will remain stable across the board due to the current market conditions [6]. Notebook Panel Outlook - Notebook panel demand is anticipated to remain stable through August, with some brands experiencing strong demand, which enhances their bargaining power with manufacturers [7]. - The price trend for major notebook panel specifications is expected to hold steady, with any discounts dependent on the relationship between manufacturers and their clients [7].
最新面板价格趋势预测(2025年8月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-05 08:59
Core Viewpoint - The panel prices for televisions are expected to stabilize in August 2025, while monitor and laptop panel prices remain unchanged [2][4]. Television Panels - The average price for 65-inch television panels is projected to be $172, a decrease of $1 or 0.6% from the previous month, with a range between $166 and $175 [6]. - The average price for 55-inch television panels is expected to be $123, also down by $1 or 0.8%, with a minimum of $117 and a maximum of $125 [6]. - The average price for 43-inch television panels is forecasted at $64, with a minimum of $62 and a maximum of $65 [7]. - The average price for 32-inch television panels is anticipated to be $35, with a minimum of $34 and a maximum of $36 [8]. Monitor Panels - The prices for monitor panels are expected to remain stable [10]. - The average price for 27-inch IPS panels is projected to be $63, with a minimum of $57.6 and a maximum of $65.8 [11]. - The average price for 23.8-inch IPS panels is expected to be $49.9, with a minimum of $47.1 and a maximum of $51.4 [12]. Laptop Panels - The prices for laptop panels are also expected to stay unchanged [14]. - The average price for 17.3-inch TN panels is stable at $38.3, with a minimum of $37.7 and a maximum of $39.8 [14]. - The average price for 15.6-inch Value IPS panels is projected to remain at $40.3, with a minimum of $38.6 and a maximum of $41.9 [14]. - The average price for 14.0-inch TN panels is stable at $26.9, with a minimum of $26.4 and a maximum of $28.1 [14]. - The average price for 11.6-inch TN panels is stable at $25.1, with a minimum of $24.2 and a maximum of $26.5 [14].
研报 | 三安光电将并购Lumileds,重塑全球LED市场格局
TrendForce集邦· 2025-08-04 06:59
Core Viewpoint - Sanan Optoelectronics announced on August 1, 2025, that it will acquire 100% of Lumileds Holding B.V. for $239 million in cash, enhancing its position in the global LED market and entering a key patent cross-licensing alliance with major players [2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will allow Sanan to indirectly hold 74.5% of Lumileds' shares by the first quarter of 2026, pending necessary approvals [5]. - Lumileds is ranked among the top seven LED packaging manufacturers globally, with a significant market presence in automotive lighting, mobile flashlights, and high-end/niche lighting [2][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Financials - Lumileds is projected to generate approximately $600 million in revenue for 2024, with its automotive lighting LED revenue ranking third globally, following ams OSRAM and Nichia [6]. - The company has established itself in the Apple supply chain for mobile flashlights, ranking second only to Nichia in that segment [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The LED market is experiencing intense price competition due to economic uncertainties and tariffs, with expectations that Sanan's management of Lumileds will optimize costs [6]. - The integration of Sanan's capabilities with Lumileds' existing teams across Europe, China, Malaysia, and Singapore will be crucial for maintaining customer relationships and driving positive growth [6].
光伏周价格 | 产业链报涨但幅度缩窄,涨幅传导压力向组件集中
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-31 05:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the fluctuations in prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, as well as the supply-demand balance and inventory levels across different segments of the industry [5][10][12]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported as 43.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 41.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 41.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The price increase in polysilicon is driven by successful price adjustments in silicon wafers, although the increase is narrowing compared to previous weeks [6]. - The current inventory in the polysilicon industry is over 380,000 tons, with expectations of an upward trend in August [7]. - The overall supply of polysilicon is projected to be in the range of 120,000 to 125,000 tons in August, with new capacities expected to come online [8]. - There is a strong expectation for production recovery due to price corrections, but potential market saturation could pose challenges [9]. - N-type polysilicon prices have increased again, but the growth rate is slowing, with ongoing support from policy expectations [10]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported as 1.20 RMB/piece for M10, 1.55 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.35 RMB/piece for G12R [11]. - Silicon wafer manufacturers are controlling production to maintain supply-demand stability, which supports price increases [12]. - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased significantly to around 16 GW, alleviating inventory pressure and enhancing bargaining power [13]. - All specifications of silicon wafers have seen price increases, driven by upstream supply constraints and strong overseas demand for battery cells [14]. Battery Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type battery cells are reported as 0.285 RMB/W for M10, and 0.280 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R [15]. - Strong demand from regions like Turkey and Pakistan is noted, influenced by changes in tariff policies, while domestic demand is also rising due to expectations of export tax refunds [16]. - The inventory of specialized battery cell companies has decreased to around 5 days, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [17]. - The price increase in battery cells is successfully transmitted due to domestic and international stocking activities, but future sustainability depends on export tax policies and overseas demand [18]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for modules are reported as 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm HJT modules [19]. - Leading manufacturers are experiencing better order visibility, while smaller manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [20]. - Major manufacturers are attempting to maintain prices despite rising upstream costs, but the outcome remains uncertain due to ongoing negotiations [21]. - In Europe, module prices have continued to decline, while in India and the US, price stability is observed amidst changing tariff regulations [22].
研报 | AI需求表现突出,消费电子市场低迷,2H25 MLCC旺季走势存在变数
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-30 03:59
Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of early consumption and inventory accumulation on the demand for MLCCs, indicating potential fluctuations in back-to-school season consumption in Q3 2023 [1] - There is a noticeable polarization in industry demand, with ODM orders for mid-to-low-end consumer products showing only a slight increase, reflecting a conservative approach to order placements [1] - The demand for AI servers is surging, driven by the simultaneous release of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 platforms, positively affecting the revenue of major ODMs [1] Group 1 - TrendForce reports that MLCC order demand may be affected by the diminishing early consumption and inventory accumulation, leading to uncertainties in the Q3 back-to-school season [1] - ODM orders for mid-to-low-end consumer products are expected to remain flat or increase by only about 5% in Q3, indicating a shift towards a more cautious order strategy [1] - Many companies have preemptively shipped products in the first half of the year to adapt to international market changes, which has depleted traditional demand for the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The supply chain's operational rates are polarized, with Japanese and Korean manufacturers focusing on high-end AI applications achieving an average capacity utilization rate of 90%, while Chinese manufacturers are around 75% [2] - MLCC suppliers are accelerating the establishment of testing and packaging lines in Southeast Asia to localize production and supply [2] - OEMs are expected to face cost pressures, leading to potential price increases for end products as they release RFQ for 2026 mobile phones and laptops [2]
每周观察| 2025年全球折叠手机出货量预估,华为占34.3%;预估Blackwell将占2025年英伟达高阶GPU出货超80%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-25 04:04
Group 1 - The estimated shipment volume of foldable phones is projected to reach 19.8 million units by 2025, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.6%, remaining stable compared to 2024 [1] - Although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, advancements in technology and price reductions are driving foldable phones to become a focal point in the mid-to-high-end market and a tool for brand differentiation [1] - Major manufacturers are accelerating the launch of new products and actively expanding their product lines and price ranges in preparation for a potential market explosion in 2026 [1] Group 2 - It is estimated that Blackwell will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2025, with the penetration rate of liquid cooling solutions continuing to rise [5] - The overall server market has stabilized recently, with ODMs focusing on the development of AI servers, and new Blackwell platform products are gradually being released [5]
研报 | 预估Blackwell将占2025年英伟达高阶GPU出货逾80%,液冷散热渗透率续攀升
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-24 08:46
Group 1 - The overall Server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI Server development, and it is expected that Blackwell GPUs will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments this year [1] - North American CSP giant Oracle is expanding its AI data center, benefiting companies like Supermicro and Quanta, with Supermicro's growth driven by AI Server projects [2] - Liquid cooling solutions are becoming a standard configuration for high-performance AI data centers, with increasing adoption rates for high-end AI chips [3] Group 2 - Liquid cooling will significantly boost the demand for cooling components, accelerating the supply chain's output pace, with companies like Fositek and Auras actively engaging in the liquid cooling market [5] - Fositek has begun shipping components for the GB300 platform, while Auras is establishing itself in the liquid cooling market with major clients including Oracle and Supermicro [5]
光伏周价格 | 硅料硅片再度报涨,下游博弈持续
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-24 08:46
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent price increases across various segments of the photovoltaic industry, particularly in polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost recovery efforts [5][10][19]. Polysilicon Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported at 42.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 40.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 40.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The overall transaction prices for polysilicon have stabilized around 40 RMB/KG, with an increase in acceptance of price hikes by crystal pulling factories [6]. - As of this week, the polysilicon industry inventory stands at over 370,000 tons, gradually shifting towards crystal pulling factories due to prior stockpiling by specialized silicon wafer manufacturers [7]. - Looking ahead to August, with rising polysilicon prices, some second and third-tier manufacturers in Xinjiang and Qinghai may prepare to resume production, while leading manufacturers also plan to increase output [8][9]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported at 1.10 RMB/piece for M10, 1.45 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.25 RMB/piece for G12R [10]. - The silicon wafer manufacturers have reduced their operating rates, leading to a balanced supply-demand relationship and noticeable inventory depletion [11]. - Manufacturers with significant low-cost silicon material stock are experiencing profit recovery, and some plan to increase production next month [12]. - The inventory of silicon wafers has entered a depletion phase, with most manufacturers adhering to guided pricing [13]. Battery Cell Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for M10 single crystal TOPCon battery cells are at 0.27 RMB/W, while G12 and G12R cells are at 0.275 RMB/W [16]. - The price increase of 18% for 183N cells is attributed to rising overseas demand, while the price transmission from upstream to downstream remains slow due to intense negotiations [17]. - As of this week, specialized battery cell manufacturers have seen a decrease in inventory, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [18]. - The price increase for N-type battery cells has been successfully transmitted, but future sustainability depends on the price transmission from modules [19]. Module Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for 182mm double-sided double-glass TOPCon modules are at 0.67 RMB/W, and for 210mm double-sided double-glass HJT modules at 0.72 RMB/W [20]. - Leading manufacturers are maintaining a favorable order intake, while second and third-tier manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [21]. - There is an expectation of a gradual price increase of 0.02-0.03 RMB/W from leading manufacturers, while second and third-tier manufacturers are also slightly following suit [22]. - The cost transmission and export tax rebate policies are anticipated to facilitate smoother price adjustments in overseas markets compared to domestic ones [23].
研报 | 预估2025年折叠手机出货量将达1,980万支,渗透率约1.6%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-22 03:54
Core Insights - The article discusses the projected growth and market dynamics of foldable smartphones, highlighting a forecasted shipment of 19.8 million units by 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% compared to 2024 [1] - Despite a slowdown in growth compared to previous years, advancements in technology and price reductions are making foldable phones a focal point in the mid-to-high-end market, with manufacturers preparing for a potential market explosion in 2026 [1][6] Group 1: Market Leaders and Competitors - Samsung remains the leader in the foldable smartphone market, recently launching the Galaxy Z Fold7 with significant improvements in hinge structure, crease control, and weight [4] - Huawei is expected to maintain strong performance in the Chinese market, with a global market share of 34.3% in 2025, while brands like Honor and Lenovo are projected to increase their market shares significantly [5] - Xiaomi is also making strides in the lightweight foldable market, with an expected market share growth from 3.0% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2025 [5] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Market Challenges - Despite improvements in technology and product variety, global sales growth of foldable phones remains moderate due to consumer hesitance regarding crease visibility, durability, and pricing, particularly among non-brand loyal users [5] - The current market positioning of foldable phones is seen as "high-end experimental products," as most users prefer high-cost-performance traditional flagship models [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - A potential turning point for the foldable smartphone market may occur in 2026 with Apple's anticipated launch of its first foldable phone, which could significantly increase consumer interest and acceptance [6] - Apple's strategy is expected to focus on stability and ecosystem integration, enhancing user experience through optimized iOS applications and hardware [6] - Overall, foldable smartphones are evolving from mere brand innovation showcases to becoming a core product line, with comprehensive planning across entry-level to flagship models [6]