Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting price trends, supply and demand dynamics, and the impact of regulatory measures on market conditions. Group 1: Polysilicon - The current polysilicon inventory has exceeded 500,000 tons, indicating a continuous accumulation phase in the market [5] - There is a significant decline in terminal demand, leading to strong resistance from downstream sectors against high-priced polysilicon, resulting in insufficient market support [6] - Due to regulatory pressures and downstream resistance, there is an expectation of further price declines, with current market prices dropping below RMB 60 per kilogram [7] Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Silicon wafer inventory remains high at over 20 GW, with slow inventory reduction due to limited actual shipments [8] - Although there are slight production increases in the downstream battery sector, there is still a lack of substantial support for silicon wafer demand, leading to increasing price pressure from battery manufacturers [9] - The price of silicon wafers is expected to decline slightly due to weak upward momentum and dual pressures from raw material costs and downstream pricing demands [10] Group 3: Battery Cells - Industry-wide production cuts have reduced inventory levels to 6-8 days, with most manufacturers maintaining low operational levels due to cost and shipment pressures [10] - The implementation of export tax rebate policies has led to a slight increase in shipments, primarily benefiting integrated companies rather than specialized battery manufacturers [11] - Prices remain strong above RMB 0.4 per watt due to surging non-silicon costs driven by rising silver prices, with future trends heavily reliant on silver price fluctuations and upstream polysilicon pricing [12] Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - Significant inventory reduction is observed in the market, with distributors and project parties accumulating low-priced orders due to concerns over future price increases [13] - The export tax rebate policy has stimulated overseas order demand, primarily benefiting leading integrated companies, while domestic acceptance of prices around RMB 0.8 remains low [13] - Module prices have rebounded quickly due to battery cell cost support, with short-term price resilience expected, contingent on the sustainability of overseas demand and silver price volatility [15]

Core Insights - The smartphone market is facing dual pressures of tight memory supply and soaring prices, leading to increased terminal product prices and weakened demand starting from the second half of 2025 [2] - Despite a conservative outlook, brands are prioritizing resource locking in memory procurement to avoid higher future costs, even as some brands begin to lower their annual production targets [2][3] - The overall economic environment is weak, consumer behavior is becoming more conservative, and rising memory prices are prompting TrendForce to revise down its 2026 smartphone production forecast by 7% compared to previous estimates [3] Group 1 - The smartphone market is expected to see a significant decline in production performance starting in Q2 2026 due to cost pressures from increased terminal prices [2] - Brands are adjusting specifications and re-establishing pricing strategies to mitigate earlier price hikes, with major production plan adjustments anticipated between Q2 and Q3 2026 [3] - If retail inventory turnover does not improve, some brands may reduce future production plans starting from the end of Q1 2026 [2] Group 2 - The adjustment period for brands in terms of output and product structure is critical in the first half of 2026 [3] - The extent of further downward revisions to production forecasts will depend on memory price trends and the market's acceptance of price increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from TrendForce indicates a continuous increase in DRAM spot prices despite a relatively flat trading performance, driven by suppliers and traders adopting a withholding strategy to maintain inventory levels [2][5]. DRAM Spot Market - The average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s increased by 9.64%, rising from US$25.407 on January 7 to US$27.857 on January 13 [2][4]. - The overall trading volume remains tight due to strong contract price increases and a clear reluctance from suppliers and intermediaries to sell off their inventory [2][4]. NAND Spot Market - The NAND spot market has also seen a price increase, with the 512Gb TLC Wafer spot price rising by 9.68% to US$15.052 during the same reporting period [6]. - Despite high spot prices and weak demand for consumer products, some buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, while optimistic traders are not lowering prices to stimulate sales, resulting in a subdued market transaction volume [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in foundry prices and the changing dynamics of the eight-inch wafer supply and demand, highlighting the impact of AI-related Power IC demand and the reduction in production capacity by major players like TSMC and Samsung [2][4][6]. Supply Side Summary - TSMC and Samsung have begun to reduce eight-inch wafer production capacity, with TSMC aiming for partial shutdowns by 2027. This reduction is expected to lead to a global capacity decline of approximately 0.3% in 2025 and an estimated 2.4% in 2026 [3][4]. - The reduction in capacity by TSMC and Samsung is anticipated to result in a 2.4% year-on-year decrease in global eight-inch wafer capacity for 2026 [4][6]. Demand Side Summary - In 2025, the demand for AI Server Power ICs and the trend of localizing IC production in China have led to increased utilization rates for eight-inch capacity, prompting some manufacturers to raise foundry prices in the latter half of the year [5][6]. - The demand for Power-related ICs is expected to continue growing in 2026 due to increased computational power and energy efficiency requirements from AI applications, which will support the utilization rates of eight-inch wafers [5][6]. Price Adjustment Insights - Some foundries are planning to increase foundry prices by 5% to 20% due to the anticipated tightening of eight-inch capacity in 2026. This price adjustment is expected to be comprehensive across all customers and process platforms [6]. - Despite the planned price increases, actual price hikes may be moderated due to concerns in consumer markets and rising costs in memory and advanced processes affecting peripheral IC costs [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that due to the shift of DRAM manufacturers towards advanced processes and new capacities for Server and HBM applications to meet AI Server demand, there will be a significant tightening of supply in other markets, leading to a projected increase in contract prices for Conventional DRAM by 55-60% in Q1 2026 and for NAND Flash by 33-38% [2][3] Group 2 - In Q1 2026, the contract price for Conventional DRAM is expected to rise by 55-60%, while HBM blended prices will increase by 50-55% [3] - The global MLC NAND Flash capacity is projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to major manufacturers exiting or reducing production, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 3 - The mass production schedule for HBM4 is anticipated to be delayed until the end of Q1 2026 due to adjustments in specifications by NVIDIA and increased demand for previous generation products [6] Group 4 - The supply-demand situation for LCD TV panels is expected to tighten in Q1 2026 due to production cuts by major manufacturers in response to the upcoming Chinese New Year [8] Group 5 - The global installation volume of electric vehicle SiC inverters reached a record high of 8.35 million units in Q3 2025, marking a 22% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 18% [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growth of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly in the third quarter of 2025, where the installation volume of traction inverters reached 8.35 million units, marking a 22% year-on-year increase. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are the main contributors to this growth, with installation growth rates of 36% and 13.6% respectively [2][6]. Group 1: Electric Vehicle Market Growth - The global installation volume of traction inverters in Q3 2025 reached 8.35 million units, a 22% increase year-on-year [2]. - The growth rates for BEVs and PHEVs were 36% and 13.6% respectively, indicating strong demand in the EV sector [2]. - The integration of electric drive systems in vehicle chassis is increasing, with over 70% of inverter installations featuring a "3 in 1" or higher integration type [2]. Group 2: SiC Power Semiconductors - SiC power semiconductors are becoming key components in electric drive systems due to their compact size and higher voltage tolerance [5]. - In Q3 2025, the global installation volume of SiC inverters surpassed 1.5 million units, achieving a historical high [5]. - The penetration rate of SiC inverters in electric vehicles increased from 14% in 2024 to 18% in 2025, and reached 22% specifically for new energy vehicles [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - 84% of SiC inverter installations were contributed by BEVs, with the remaining from PHEVs and Range-Extended Electric Vehicles (REEVs) [6]. - The Chinese market remains the largest for SiC inverters, accounting for approximately 75% of the installation volume, while demand in Europe and the US is showing signs of weakness [6]. - Despite the growth in inverter installation volumes, the overall market value in Q3 2025 decreased by 10% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting pricing pressures from automakers [6].

| 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N型复投料(RMB) | 56.000 | 52.000 | 53.000 | 6.00% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 53.000 | 51.000 | 52.000 | 8.33% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 51.000 | 50.000 | 50.000 | 6.38% | | 非中国区多晶硅(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 17.500 | 0.00% | | 硅片 (Per Pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.400 | 1.350 | 1.350 | 3.85% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130µm (RMB) | 1.700 | 1.650 | 1.650 | 3.12% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130um (RMB) | 1.500 | 1.450 | 1.450 | 3.57% | | 电池片 ...

根 据 Tr e n dFo r c e 集 邦 咨 询 最 新 调 查 ， NVIDIA （ 英 伟 达 ） 于 2 0 2 5 年 第 三 季 调 整 Ru b i n 平 台 的 HBM4规格，上修对Sp e e d p e r Pi n的要求至高于11Gb p s，致使三大HBM供应商需修正设计。 此 外 ， AI 热 潮 刺 激 NVIDIA 前 一 代 Bl a c kwe ll 产 品 需 求 优 于 预 期 ， Ru b i n 平 台 量 产 时 程 顺 势 调 整。两项因素皆导致HBM4放量时间点延后，预期最快于2 0 2 6年第一季末进入量产。 Jan. 8, 2026 产业洞察 近期文章精选 TrendForce Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询表示，SK h y n i x（SK海力士）、Sams u n g（三星）、Mi c r o n（美光）皆 已重新送样其HBM4产品，并持续调整设计，以回应NVIDIA更严格的规格要求。与竞争对手相 比，Sams u n g的HBM4率先采用1Cnm制程，在b a s e d i e更采用自家晶圆代工厂的先进制程，未 来将能支持相对高速 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant reduction in global MLC NAND Flash production capacity, projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to major manufacturers exiting or scaling back production [2][4]. - Samsung, the largest supplier, announced the end of MLC NAND Flash production, with the last shipment scheduled for June 2026, leading to a supply shortage and increased prices [4]. - Demand for MLC NAND Flash remains stable, primarily driven by industrial control, automotive electronics, medical devices, and networking, although long-term growth potential is limited [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of MLC NAND Flash is contracting significantly, with Samsung's exit being a major factor. Other manufacturers like Kioxia, SK Hynix, and Micron are focusing on existing customer needs rather than expanding production [4]. - The market has seen a noticeable increase in demand for MLC NAND Flash since Q1 2025, resulting in price hikes due to supply shortages [4]. - The long-term supply chain for MLC NAND Flash is disrupted, creating opportunities for companies like Macronix, which is shifting focus from NOR Flash to MLC NAND Flash to meet niche demands [5]. Market Implications - The contraction in MLC NAND Flash supply is expected to lead to a more concentrated supply chain, which may alleviate previous price pressures in the NOR Flash market as Macronix reduces its NOR Flash capacity [5]. - The overall NAND Flash market may experience a reversal in sentiment if certain applications accelerate the adoption of enhanced TLC solutions, potentially putting indirect pressure on MLC product prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that in January 2026, TV panel prices are expected to rise across the board, while monitor panel prices are anticipated to remain stable, and some laptop panel prices are projected to decrease [3][6][7] - The demand for TV panels is expected to remain stable due to strong purchasing momentum from certain TV brands, allowing panel manufacturers to maintain high utilization rates [3][6] - It is predicted that the prices of 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch TV panels will increase by $1 each in January [3][6] Group 2 - For monitor panels, despite a generally weak market demand, mainstream panel prices are expected to remain stable in January [6][12] - The article suggests that starting from the first quarter, TV panel prices will enter a rising cycle, which may also stimulate demand for LCD monitor panels [6][12] - The potential impact of production cuts in February could further influence the prices of LCD monitor panels, making it a key focus for the next one to two months [6][12] Group 3 - In January, the demand for laptop panels is expected to weaken, with some brands having overstocked in the previous quarter, leading to a slowdown in demand momentum [7][12] - The article notes that due to shortages and significant price increases in memory components, brand clients are likely to enhance their bargaining power regarding other major components, putting downward pressure on laptop panel prices [7][12] - It is anticipated that laptop panel prices will show a downward trend in January, with IPS models expected to decrease by $0.2, while TN models are projected to remain stable [7][12]