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研报 | 2025年下半年晶圆代工产能利用率优于预期,零星业者酝酿涨价
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-15 09:17
Core Insights - The wafer foundry capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable in Q4 2025, contrary to earlier predictions of a decline, due to low inventory levels at IC manufacturers, the peak sales season for smartphones, and strong AI demand [2][3] - Some wafer fabs are planning to raise prices for BCD and Power process platforms due to tight supply conditions, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] - Despite the positive outlook for the second half of 2025, uncertainties in the global market and a lack of innovation in consumer products may pose risks for 2026 [3] Summary by Sections - **Wafer Foundry Performance**: The capacity utilization rate for wafer foundries is expected to hold steady in Q4 2025, with some fabs even outperforming Q3 due to replenished inventory and strong demand from AI-related ICs [2] - **Market Dynamics**: The anticipated price increases for certain process platforms reflect a market environment that is moving away from aggressive price competition, particularly in mature processes [3] - **Future Outlook**: While the current situation appears stable, potential challenges for 2026 include prolonged replacement cycles for consumer products and a lack of innovative applications [3]
研报 | AI存储需求激发HDD替代效应,NAND Flash供应商加速转进大容量Nearline SSD
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-14 05:45
Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of AI inference applications, which is driving the demand for high-capacity storage solutions, prompting HDD and SSD suppliers to expand their offerings [2][3] - The HDD market is currently facing a significant supply gap, leading NAND Flash manufacturers to accelerate the production of ultra-large capacity Nearline SSDs [2] - The transition to new HAMR technology in the HDD industry is causing high initial costs, which are being passed on to customers, resulting in an increase in average selling price per GB [2][3] HDD Market Dynamics - The HDD industry is undergoing a painful technological transition, with the initial costs of new HAMR production lines creating capacity expansion bottlenecks [2] - The average selling price per GB for HDDs has risen from $0.012-$0.013 to $0.015-$0.016, diminishing HDD's cost advantage [2] - The production costs of HDDs are expected to improve once the HAMR technology reaches economies of scale [3] NAND Flash Advantages - NAND Flash technology is advancing rapidly, with 3D stacking techniques allowing for faster capacity increases compared to HDDs [3] - The expected production ramp-up of 2Tb QLC chips in 2026 will play a crucial role in reducing Nearline SSD costs [2][3] - The structural advantages of NAND Flash in terms of cost reduction and capacity expansion make it a favorable option for data centers [3] Market Opportunities - The emergence of the Nearline SSD market presents a significant opportunity for NAND Flash suppliers, especially those looking beyond traditional smartphone and PC demands [3] - The focus is shifting towards higher density and larger capacity QLC products to meet current orders and position for future data center storage architecture leadership [3]
研报 | 2026年CSP资本支出预计将高达5,200亿美元,GPU采购与ASIC研发成创新高核心驱动力
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-13 04:08
Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid expansion of AI Server demand, leading major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) to significantly increase their capital expenditures, projected to exceed $420 billion in 2025, representing a 61% year-over-year growth compared to the combined capital expenditures of 2023 and 2024 [2] - It is anticipated that the total capital expenditure of the eight major CSPs will reach over $520 billion in 2026, marking a 24% increase from 2025, as they shift their spending focus from revenue-generating equipment to assets like servers and GPUs to strengthen long-term competitiveness [2] CSP Capital Expenditure - The demand for the GB200/GB300 Rack AI solutions is expected to grow beyond expectations, with significant interest from major North American CSPs and companies like Tesla, Coreweave, and Nebius for cloud AI leasing services [5] - CSPs are expected to expand their deployment of the GB300 Rack solutions in 2026, transitioning to the NVIDIA Rubin VR200 Rack solutions in the latter half of the year [5] In-house Chip Development - North American CSPs are intensifying their AI ASIC development to enhance autonomy and cost control in generative AI and large language model computations [6] - Google is collaborating with Broadcom on the TPU v7p, expected to ramp up in 2026, while AWS is set to launch the liquid-cooled version of Trainium v2 by the end of 2025, with Trainium v3 expected to enter mass production in early 2026 [6][7] - Meta is enhancing its collaboration with Broadcom, anticipating the mass production of MTIA v2 in Q4 2025, while Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 with GUC's assistance, although its timeline is lagging behind competitors [7]
面板价格观察 | 10月预估电视面板厂稼动率下调至80%以下,部分笔电面板价格或小幅下调
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-08 10:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of TV and monitor panels are expected to remain stable in October 2023, while some laptop panel prices may see slight declines [3][5][6] - The demand for TV panels is anticipated to gradually slow down as the year-end peak season approaches, leading manufacturers to adjust production capacity to stabilize prices [3][5] - The average utilization rate of panel manufacturers is projected to drop from over 80% in Q3 to below 80% in October, with adjustments planned during the National Day holiday [3][5] Group 2 - The demand for monitor panels is expected to decrease by 9% compared to September, but manufacturers are cautious about price reductions due to ongoing losses in mainstream specifications [5][6] - For laptop panels, the demand is also forecasted to weaken, with manufacturers likely to concede to brand clients' requests for price reductions during the off-peak season [6] - The price trend for entry-level TN laptop panels is expected to remain stable, while some IPS models may see a price drop of $0.1 [6]
最新面板价格趋势预测(2025年10月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-07 11:49
Core Insights - The article presents the latest panel price forecasts for October 2025, indicating stable prices for TV and monitor panels, while slight decreases are expected for certain laptop panels [2][5]. TV Panel Price Forecast - The average price for a 65-inch TV panel is projected to be $173, with a minimum of $167 and a maximum of $176 [6]. - The average price for a 55-inch TV panel is estimated at $124, with a minimum of $118 and a maximum of $127 [6]. - The average price for a 43-inch TV panel is expected to be $64, with a minimum of $62 and a maximum of $66 [6]. - The average price for a 32-inch TV panel is forecasted at $35, with a minimum of $34 and a maximum of $36 [14]. Monitor Panel Price Forecast - The average price for a 27-inch IPS monitor panel is projected to be $63, with a minimum of $57.6 and a maximum of $65.8 [8]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS monitor panel is estimated at $49.9, with a minimum of $47.1 and a maximum of $51.4 [9]. Laptop Panel Price Forecast - The average price for a 17.3-inch TN laptop panel is expected to be $38.2, reflecting a decrease of $0.1 or 0.3% from the previous month, with a minimum of $37.6 and a maximum of $39.7 [11]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS laptop panel is projected at $40.2, also down by $0.1 or 0.2% from the previous month, with a minimum of $38.5 and a maximum of $41.8 [11]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN laptop panel has stabilized at $26.9 since July 2024, with a minimum of $26.4 and a maximum of $28.1 [11]. - The average price for an 11.6-inch TN laptop panel has remained stable at $25.1 since July 2024, with a minimum of $24.2 and a maximum of $26.5 [11].
全新出刊!TrendForce 2026 全球LED显示屏市场展望与价格成本分析报告
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-30 06:23
Core Insights - The LED display market is projected to reach USD 8.105 billion by 2026, driven by events like the World Baseball Classic and FIFA World Cup, as well as the demand for high-resolution displays in corporate, educational, and entertainment sectors [2][19]. Micro/Mini LED Displays - Continuous optimization of Micro LED technology and cost by brands and panel manufacturers is expected to lead to stable growth in Micro LED TV shipments, particularly in home theater and corporate markets [5][6]. - The Mini LED display market is anticipated to grow by 25% in 2025, with P1.2 being the mainstream product, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% projected from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching USD 2.194 billion [6]. All-in-One LED Displays - The global demand for All-in-One LED displays is expected to rise, with shipments projected to reach 12,850 units in 2025. Major players include CVTE, Absen, and Samsung [8][9]. - From 2025, mainstream specifications will shift towards a 16:9 aspect ratio, with 135-inch 2K P1.5 models becoming prevalent, enhancing portability and reducing operational costs [9]. Cinema LED Displays - The Chinese government's promotion of cinema LED displays is expected to drive a 75% increase in new installations globally by 2025, with specifications typically ranging from 1.85:1 to 2.39:1 [11][31]. Virtual Production LED Displays - The demand for virtual production LED displays is anticipated to decline in 2025 due to reduced entertainment spending in Western markets and decreased social investment in China [13][14]. - Major companies are developing comprehensive virtual production solutions, with mainstream specifications focusing on P2.1 and higher for general backgrounds, while high-end filming requires P1.2-P1.6 Mini LED displays [14]. LED Rental Displays - The popularity of LED rental displays is increasing as prices decline, with a projected market size of USD 2.244 billion by 2029 and a CAGR of 8% from 2024 to 2029 [16]. Outdoor LED Displays - The outdoor LED display market is expected to grow steadily, particularly in advertising, transportation, and sports applications, with advancements in Mini LED technology enhancing display quality [18].
每周观察 |Nearline SSD需求攀升;4Q25 DRAM和NAND Flash价格上涨;LCD电视面板大厂计划调降稼动率
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-26 04:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in demand towards Nearline SSDs due to the rising needs for AI inference services, as traditional HDDs face severe supply shortages [2] - The DRAM market is experiencing price increases, with conventional DRAM prices expected to rise by 8-13% in Q4 2025, driven by prioritization of advanced process capacities for high-end server DRAM and HBM [3][4] - The production capacity for LCD TV panels is projected to decrease, with an estimated drop in utilization rates from manufacturers' planned levels, indicating a slowdown in demand [7] Group 2 - NAND Flash prices are anticipated to rise by 5-10% in Q4 2025, influenced by a shift in storage demand towards QLC enterprise SSDs due to HDD supply shortages and extended lead times [8]
光伏周价格 | 政策预期支撑下,光伏产业链价格高位持稳
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-25 04:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, focusing on the stability of prices in the polysilicon, wafer, cell, and module segments, driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations [4][6][10][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing high inventory levels exceeding 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend. However, major producers are signaling production cuts post-holiday to manage supply [4]. - Demand is weak as downstream companies prioritize consuming existing inventory due to previous stockpiling, leading to subdued market purchases [5]. - Despite a relaxed supply-demand balance, polysilicon prices remain stable, supported by strong policy expectations and limited supply-side discipline [6]. Wafers - The wafer segment shows a healthy supply-demand balance with inventory levels around 16 GW. The supply structure is tight for 183N and 210N wafers, while inventory for 210RN has eased due to proactive production adjustments [7]. - Downstream demand for wafers is robust, effectively consuming the output from the wafer segment [8]. - Price expectations for wafers are bullish due to rising costs from upstream polysilicon, strong demand from cells, and anticipated supply reductions [9]. Cells - The cell segment exhibits a favorable supply-demand landscape with inventory levels maintained at a healthy 3-5 days. Supply adjustments are targeted rather than broad, with some manufacturers reducing production of the underperforming 210RN cells [10]. - Demand is differentiated, with 183N cells driven by overseas markets like Turkey and India, while 210N cells are primarily supported by domestic demand [11]. - Cell prices are expected to remain high due to healthy inventory levels, strong demand for mainstream products, and rational supply-side adjustments [12]. Modules - The module market is currently influenced by both cost pressures and policy factors, leading to strong price support and increased market differentiation among manufacturers [14]. - Rising upstream costs have pushed module prices to a critical point of 0.7 RMB/W, causing a price inversion between new and old orders, which impacts manufacturer profitability [14]. - The industry's self-discipline actions, including production and sales limits, are expected to significantly influence supply in the fourth quarter, providing strong support for module prices [14].
研报 | 受QLC产品热度的外溢效应驱动,预计NAND Flash 4Q25价格将上涨5-10%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-25 04:33
Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the NAND Flash market due to supply shortages and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a price increase in Q4 2025 [2][5][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, alleviating price pressures [5] - The demand for QLC (Quad-Level Cell) SSDs is rising, driven by the need for high-capacity storage in generative AI applications [5][6] - Despite weak consumer demand and excess inventory in the channel, enterprise SSD demand is expected to grow due to increased orders from server OEMs and CSPs [6][8] Price Trends - NAND Flash contract prices are projected to rise by an average of 5-10% in Q4 2025, following a 3-8% increase in Q3 2025 [3] - SanDisk and Micron have announced price increases, indicating a shift in the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive [2][5] Product Segmentation - Client SSDs have seen a significant reduction in inventory levels, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [7] - Enterprise SSD suppliers are adjusting their production strategies to meet the growing demand for high-capacity products, particularly those exceeding 120TB [8] - eMMC/UFS products are facing weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers, which may limit price increases despite manufacturers' efforts to recover losses [9] Manufacturing Adjustments - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, which may lead to tighter supply and further price increases in Q4 2025 [10]
研报 | 4Q25 DRAM价格延续涨势,服务器需求提前发酵、旧制程产品涨幅仍较大
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-24 04:08
Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends in the DRAM market, highlighting the price increases for various types of DRAM due to supply constraints and shifting demand towards high-end applications [2][4][6]. DRAM Price Trends - Overall Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q4 2025, while HBM blended prices are projected to rise by 13-18% [2][3]. - The demand for Server DRAM is anticipated to grow significantly in 2026, with major US CSPs planning to start procurement earlier to secure supply [4][5]. Segment Analysis - **PC DRAM**: Prices are expected to rise slightly due to limited supply as manufacturers shift capacity to Server DRAM. However, overall PC DRAM procurement is projected to decrease due to reduced OEM shipments [4][5]. - **Mobile DRAM**: LPDDR4X prices are forecasted to increase by over 10% in Q4 2025 due to supply constraints, while LPDDR5X is also expected to maintain an upward price trend [6]. - **Graphics DRAM**: GDDR7 prices are set to rise significantly due to strong demand from the market, particularly for NVIDIA's RTX6000 series, while GDDR6 prices will also increase but at a slower rate [6]. - **Consumer DRAM**: Supply remains limited, and while prices are expected to rise, the demand from buyers has slowed down after significant price increases in the previous quarter [7].