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研报 | 库存调整结束,2Q25全球智能手机生产总数达3亿支,季增约4%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-12 03:52
Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone production is expected to reach 300 million units in Q2 2025, driven by seasonal demand and recovery in production from brands like Oppo and Transsion, despite ongoing economic challenges affecting consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global smartphone production is projected to increase by approximately 4% quarter-over-quarter and 4.8% year-over-year in Q2 2025 [2]. - The Chinese market's subsidy policy has temporarily boosted sales of mid-range products, aiding inventory reduction, but its overall impact on 2025 sales is expected to be limited due to constraints on subsidy amounts and product coverage [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Samsung remains the largest producer with 58 million units, experiencing a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter, holding a 19% market share [3][5]. - Apple produced 46 million units, down 9% from the previous quarter, but up 4% year-over-year, reflecting growth driven by the new iPhone 16e [5][6]. - Xiaomi's production totaled 42 million units, a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter, maintaining a 14% market share [3][6]. - Oppo's production surged by 35% to 37 million units as inventory adjustments concluded, securing a 12% market share [3][6]. - Transsion produced over 27 million units, a 33% increase quarter-over-quarter, with a year-over-year growth of 15.7%, capturing a 9% market share [3][6]. - Vivo's production rose by 8% to 26 million units, also benefiting from the Chinese subsidy policy, maintaining a 9% market share [3][6].
光伏周价格 | 光伏全产业链价格上涨,下游积极备货
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-11 06:03
Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the photovoltaic industry, driven by anticipated supply reductions and proactive inventory strategies from downstream manufacturers [4][6][7]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have increased due to proactive purchasing strategies from downstream manufacturers, who are concerned about future price hikes and supply shortages [5][6]. - Despite high inventory levels of approximately 400,000 tons, expectations of significant production cuts in October due to seasonal factors are leading to a tightening supply outlook [4][6]. Group 3: Wafer Market - The wafer market is experiencing a recovery in profitability and operational rates, with current inventory levels around 16 GW considered healthy [9][10]. - Demand for wafers is supported by increased production in the battery segment and proactive inventory strategies from battery manufacturers [10][11]. Group 4: Cell Market - The overall inventory of solar cells is declining, with a healthy level maintained at around 5 days for specialized manufacturers [12]. - Demand for solar cells is bolstered by proactive purchasing from downstream component manufacturers, who are anticipating further price increases [13][14]. Group 5: Module Market - The price of photovoltaic modules has shifted upward, with current market prices in the range of RMB 0.66-0.68 per watt, indicating a positive short-term outlook [15][16]. - The fourth quarter is expected to be a traditional peak season, with strong demand and supportive policies contributing to a bullish market consensus [18].
研报 | 2Q25全球牵引逆变器装机量年增19%,增程式电动车助力SiC机种普及
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-10 09:02
Core Insights - The global electric vehicle (EV) traction inverter installation reached 7.66 million units in Q2 2025, marking a 19% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales [2] - BEVs accounted for 52% of the inverter installations, maintaining the largest share, surpassing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) [2] Market Performance - BYD and Denso lead the market with shares of 17% and 14% respectively, while Huawei's market share increased from 3% to 4% due to the popularity of BEV and REEV models [5] - Inovance has also established itself among the top five suppliers in the market [5] Semiconductor Application - The penetration rate of silicon carbide (SiC) in inverters rose to 17% in Q2 2025, primarily used in BEVs and gradually expanding to PHEVs and REEVs, with the latter two accounting for nearly 19% of installations, all contributed by Chinese manufacturers [6] - The adoption of SiC in REEVs reached 20%, second only to BEVs at 31%, indicating a growing demand that does not detract from other vehicle types but rather expands the overall inverter market [6] - The demand for inverters in PHEVs, REEVs, and BEVs is predominantly driven by the Chinese market, prompting international semiconductor companies like Infineon to increase their production share in China [6]
研报 | Micro LED手表催化应用成长,预计推动2029年芯片市场规模突破4.61亿美元
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-09 09:02
Core Insights - The penetration rate of Micro LED technology in consumer electronics is accelerating, with significant product launches such as Samsung's 140-inch Micro LED TV in 2023 and Garmin's Fenix 8 Pro smartwatch in 2025, indicating a broader adoption across major sectors [2][4] - TrendForce forecasts that the Micro LED chip market value will reach $461 million by 2029, driven by the introduction of these key products [2] - Despite challenges such as high power consumption and pricing, Micro LED technology is expected to evolve and compete with more established OLED technology as it meets specific needs in outdoor environments and offers potential for product innovation [4][5] Market Dynamics - The current market acceptance of Micro LED's high power consumption and cost remains a significant challenge, hindering its short-term competitiveness against OLED [4] - The Fenix 8 Pro smartwatch, utilizing components from AUO, PlayNitride, and Raydium, showcases the growing Micro LED supply chain and the potential for cost optimization and technological maturity as applications expand [5] - Micro LED technology is gradually commercializing across various fields, including TVs, smartwatches, and automotive displays, marking significant technological breakthroughs with high brightness and contrast advantages [5]
研报 | AI与通用型服务器驱动需求,2Q25前五大企业级SSD品牌厂营收季增12.7%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-08 04:10
Core Insights - The article highlights significant growth in the Enterprise SSD market driven by NVIDIA's Blackwell platform shipments and the expansion of North American CSPs in General Server applications, leading to a revenue increase of over $5.1 billion for the top five brands, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.7% [2]. Market Overview - The Enterprise SSD market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to shortages in DDR4 and extended lead times for controller IC substrates, impacting the market share and revenue performance of various manufacturers [2]. - Future competition in the Enterprise SSD market will focus on three key areas: AI-driven technological advancements, the rise of domestic Chinese players affecting international brands, and the need for suppliers to manage both new and legacy production capacities effectively [2]. Revenue Performance of Top Five Brands - **Samsung**: Maintained its market leader position with revenue of $1.899 billion, a slight increase of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, unaffected by DDR4 shortages [4][5]. - **SK Group**: Achieved significant growth with revenue of $1.462 billion, a 47.1% increase, driven by a resurgence in demand for high-capacity SSDs and doubled orders from key North American CSP clients [4][6]. - **Micron**: Reported revenue of $784.6 million, a decrease of 7.9%, maintaining third place but facing potential future revenue growth challenges due to delays in product validation and ramp-up [4][7]. - **Kioxia**: Experienced a revenue increase of 32.5% to $750.3 million, with market share rising to 13.7%, attributed to its leading Hybrid Bonding technology essential for AI applications [4][8]. - **SanDisk**: Recorded revenue of approximately $213 million, a decline of 8.2%, while focusing on next-generation product development and enhancing technical capabilities through collaboration with SK hynix [4][10].
面板价格观察 | 预估9月面板价格全面持平,电视面板需求第三季开始回稳增强
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-06 02:04
Group 1: Core Insights - The panel prices for TVs, monitors, and laptops are expected to remain stable in September 2025, with no significant changes anticipated [5][8]. - TV brands are preparing for the year-end promotional season, which is maintaining a stable demand for TV panels [5][7]. - Monitor panel demand has shown weakness in the third quarter, but supply constraints for mainstream FHD models are preventing price increases [7][8]. Group 2: TV Panel Insights - The production and shipment of TV panels have become more proactive in the last two months, alleviating the downward pressure on prices observed since the second quarter [5][6]. - The consensus among buyers and sellers is that there is limited room for price declines in the short term [7]. Group 3: Monitor Panel Insights - Despite weak demand, the supply of mainstream monitor panels is tight due to low production willingness from manufacturers, leading to stable pricing expectations [7][8]. Group 4: Laptop Panel Insights - The demand for laptop panels remains strong in the third quarter, with brands actively seeking to maintain order volumes to secure better pricing from manufacturers [8]. - Competitive pressures among manufacturers are limiting their ability to raise prices, despite stable demand [8].
最新面板价格趋势预测(2025年9月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-05 08:29
Core Viewpoint - The panel prices for televisions, monitors, and laptops are expected to remain stable in September 2025 according to TrendForce's latest report [2][12]. Television Panels - The average price for a 65-inch television panel is projected to be $173, with a minimum of $167 and a maximum of $176 [6]. - The average price for a 55-inch television panel is expected to be $124, with a minimum of $118 and a maximum of $127 [8]. - The average price for a 43-inch television panel is projected to be $64, with a minimum of $62 and a maximum of $65 [9]. - The average price for a 32-inch television panel is expected to be $35, with a minimum of $34 and a maximum of $36 [10]. Monitor Panels - The prices for monitor panels are also expected to remain stable [12]. - The average price for a 27-inch IPS panel is projected to be $63, with a minimum of $57.6 and a maximum of $65.8 [13]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS panel is expected to be $49.9, with a minimum of $47.1 and a maximum of $51.4 [14]. Laptop Panels - The prices for laptop panels are anticipated to stay unchanged [15]. - The average price for a 17.3-inch TN panel is stable at $38.3, with a minimum of $37.7 and a maximum of $39.8 [15]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS panel is expected to be $40.3, consistent with the previous month, with a minimum of $38.6 and a maximum of $41.9 [15]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN panel remains at $26.9, with a minimum of $26.4 and a maximum of $28.1 [15].
每周观察 | 2Q25晶圆代工营收创新高;iPhone 17系列出货量预估;2Q25 DRAM营收季增17.1%;AR眼镜出货量
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-05 08:29
Group 1: Semiconductor Foundry Industry - In Q2 2025, the global semiconductor foundry revenue reached a record high of over $41.7 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.6% driven by pre-stockpiling effects from consumer subsidies in China and demand for new smartphones and PCs [2][3] - TSMC maintained a dominant market share of 70.2% in Q2 2025, significantly ahead of its competitors [3] Group 2: DRAM Industry - The DRAM industry revenue in Q2 2025 was $31.6 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.1%, attributed to rising contract prices and increased shipment volumes [7][8] - SK Hynix led the DRAM market with a revenue of $12.2 billion and a market share of 38.7%, showing a significant growth of 25.8% from the previous quarter [8] Group 3: Apple iPhone 17 Series - The iPhone 17 series is expected to see a 3.5% increase in shipment volume compared to the iPhone 16 series, despite challenges from a weak global economy and potential price increases for high-end models [5] - The iPhone 17 series will include four models, featuring upgraded processors and improved camera capabilities, which are anticipated to drive consumer interest [5][6]
研报 | 预估2025年iPhone 17系列出货量小幅成长,Air系列将引领产品线变革
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-04 09:04
Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to launch four flagship models: iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Air (tentative name), iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, with upgrades in design, processor performance, thermal management, and camera capabilities, which are expected to boost sales [2][6]. Product Overview - The iPhone 17 series is projected to see a 3.5% increase in shipment volume compared to the iPhone 16 series in 2024, with the Pro series remaining the main sales driver [2]. - The iPhone 17 Air represents Apple's entry into the lightweight flagship market, but its reduced battery capacity and simplified camera specifications may not fully meet consumer demands for high battery life and camera quality [2][7]. Hardware Specifications - All models will be equipped with the A19 processor, while the Pro series will feature the A19 Pro processor [6]. - The RAM for the iPhone 17 Air, Pro, and Pro Max will be expanded to 12GB, with storage options starting from 256GB up to 1TB [7]. - The camera system will see significant upgrades, with front cameras increasing from 12MP to 24MP and rear cameras upgraded to 48MP, particularly in the Pro series [7]. Pricing Strategy - The base model iPhone 17 is expected to maintain last year's pricing, while the Air, Pro, and Pro Max models may see price increases of $50 to $100 due to innovations and upgrades [7]. - The iPhone 17 Air is positioned to compete with the Samsung S25 Edge in terms of pricing [7]. Product Line Strategy - The introduction of the Air series and future foldable models indicates Apple's strategy to diversify its product line to attract a broader consumer base [7]. - TrendForce suggests that Apple's product release schedule may shift to launch a mid-range model in the first half of the year and the Air, Pro, Pro Max, and foldable models in the second half, creating a more diverse and clearly segmented product matrix [7].
光伏周价格 | 头部企业“抱团”涨价,光伏产业链价格易涨难跌
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-04 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the upward price movement across various segments despite an oversupply in the market and cautious demand from downstream customers [4][6][11]. Group 1: Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon continues to increase, with monthly output expected to reach around 130,000 tons, an increase of approximately 8,000 tons from August [4]. - Market transactions remain cautious, with lower trading volumes and a lack of strong purchasing intent from downstream customers [5]. - Driven by national policies, polysilicon prices have not decreased despite the supply-demand imbalance, with the highest quotes reaching 55 RMB/kg [6]. Group 2: Silicon Wafers - The overall inventory of silicon wafers remains stable, but there are significant structural issues, particularly with 210RN wafers facing oversupply [8]. - Demand varies by size, with 183N and 210N wafers showing balanced demand, supporting price increases, while 210RN wafers struggle [8]. - Prices for 183N and 210N wafers are expected to rise by 0.05 RMB per piece due to healthy supply-demand relationships, while 210R prices are likely to remain unchanged [9]. Group 3: Solar Cells - The inventory levels of solar cells are relatively healthy, but there is a clear structural disparity in supply and demand [10]. - The demand for 210N high-efficiency cells is improving, providing solid support for prices, while 183N cells maintain competitiveness despite production-demand mismatches [9]. - Solar cell prices are expected to follow the upward trend of silicon wafer prices, indicating a challenging pricing environment [10]. Group 4: Solar Modules - The continuous rise in upstream prices is pushing up production costs for solar modules, yet terminal demand remains weak [11]. - Module manufacturers are raising quotes to above 0.7 RMB, but actual transaction prices hover around 0.68 RMB per watt, indicating a struggle to pass on cost increases [11]. - Despite the challenges, the price outlook for modules remains optimistic, supported by cost, policy, and demand factors, with a low likelihood of price reductions [11].