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研报 | 预计2035年全球固态电池需求量将达到740GWh
TrendForce集邦· 2025-11-05 09:34
固态电池发展正从实验室走向产业化,根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新研究,全球已有近百家企业规划 固态电池产能,合计达到上百GWh。其中,含半固态电池在内的部分产能已率先量产,目前扩大至 GWh级。全固态电池则进入百MWh级小规模试产的验证和制程优化阶段,在非车用部分已实现小批 量应用,如工业机器人、医疗设备、半导体装置等使用小型全固态电池,车用领域预计2027年左右将 实际使用全固态电池。 TrendForce集邦咨询表示,半固态电池与液态锂电池制造流程相似度高,已实现商业化,在电动车领 域小规模装车使用,市场上已有东风风神E70、蔚来ET7、上汽智己L6、赛力斯SERES5、岚图追光、 上汽名爵MG4等多款半固态电池车型,未来随着使用成本、充放电效率及循环寿命等关键指标改善, 半固态电池装车量将缓步上升,预估市场渗透率将于2027年突破1%,装车规模将迈向10万辆以上。 Benz(奔驰)、BMW(宝马)、Stellantis(斯特兰蒂斯)、奇瑞、Hyundai(现代)等领先车厂也 已陆续进行半固态、全固态电池装车测试。 在储能领域,受惠于中国市场半固态电池储能示范计划的推动与政策支持,LFP半固态储能电 ...
最新面板价格趋势预测(2025年11月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-11-05 09:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the price forecast for display panels in November 2025, indicating a general downward adjustment in television panel prices, while monitor panel prices are expected to remain stable, and slight decreases are anticipated for some laptop panels [2][5][9]. Television Panel Price Forecast - The average price for 65-inch television panels is projected to be $168, down by $3 from the previous month, representing a decrease of 1.8%. The lowest price is expected to be $162, and the highest $171 [5]. - The average price for 55-inch television panels is expected to be $121, down by $2, a decrease of 1.6%. The lowest price is projected at $114, and the highest at $124 [5]. - The average price for 43-inch television panels is forecasted at $63, down by $1, a decrease of 1.6%. The lowest price is expected to be $61, and the highest $65 [5]. - The average price for 32-inch television panels is anticipated to be $34, down by $1, a decrease of 2.9%. The lowest price is projected at $33, and the highest at $35 [5]. Monitor Panel Price Forecast - The average price for 27-inch IPS monitor panels is expected to remain stable at $63, with a lowest price of $57.6 and a highest price of $65.8 [6]. - The average price for 23.8-inch IPS monitor panels is projected to be $49.9, with a lowest price of $47.1 and a highest price of $51.4 [7]. Laptop Panel Price Forecast - The average price for 17.3-inch TN laptop panels is expected to be $38.1, down by $0.1, a decrease of 0.3%. The lowest price is projected at $37.5, and the highest at $39.6 [9]. - The average price for 15.6-inch Value IPS laptop panels is anticipated to be $40.1, down by $0.1, a decrease of 0.2%. The lowest price is expected to be $38.4, and the highest at $41.7 [9]. - The average price for 14.0-inch TN laptop panels has stabilized at $26.9 since July 2024, with a lowest price of $26.4 and a highest price of $28.1 [9]. - The average price for 11.6-inch TN laptop panels has also stabilized at $25.1 since July 2024, with a lowest price of $24.2 and a highest price of $26.5 [9].
DRAM买家蜂拥而至,NAND市场“一货难求”
TrendForce集邦· 2025-11-05 09:34
据TrendForce最新发布的存储现货价格趋势报告,受买家抢购报价影响,DRAM现货价格飙升。其中 DDR5芯片本周上涨了30%,原因是整体供应依然紧张,且Kingston等主要模组厂商继续限制出货量。 与此同时,NAND方面,由于现货供应有限,交易较为零星,随着市场趋紧,预计价格将进一步上涨。 具体来看: DRAM方面 ,当前部分模组厂面临巨大的备货压力,为保证货源,这些模组厂不计官价与现货之间存 在的巨大价差,积极在现货市场购货。受此影响,本周DRAM现货市场价格不断飞涨。 在强劲市场需求的推动下,本周DRAM各类颗粒价格均有大幅上涨。其中,DDR5颗粒涨幅惊人,高达 30%。 目前,DRAM市场供不应求的态势愈发突出,且短期内供应问题难以得到有效缓解。在此情况下,为 确保年底至明年初的料源稳定,客户纷纷采取提前备货的措施。以主流颗粒DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s为 例,本周其价格从$9.523上涨至$10.629,涨幅为11.61%。 NAND Flash方面 ,受合约价格陆续释出且大幅上涨的带动,NAND Flash现货价格涨势更为明显。然 而,由于原厂以利润最大化为导向,释出的Wafer资源 ...
研报 | 2025年第三季度全球电视出货量首度跌破5,000万台,季增6%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-11-03 06:09
Core Insights - The global TV shipment volume in Q3 2025 was approximately 49.75 million units, marking a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 4.9% decrease year-over-year, the first time it has fallen below 50 million units in the same period historically [2] - The decline is attributed to extended consumer purchase cycles, changes in international circumstances affecting demand, and the diminishing effects of subsidy policies in the Chinese market [2] - Anticipated promotions in the fourth quarter in Europe and the U.S., along with China's Double 11 and Double 12 shopping events, are expected to boost shipments to approximately 53.21 million units, a 7.3% increase from Q3 [2] - The total global TV shipment for 2025 is projected to be 195.59 million units, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.2% [2] Brand Performance - The top five brands in Q3 2025 by shipment volume were Samsung, Hisense, TCL, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding a market share of 64.3% [6] - Hisense regained the position of the second-largest global TV manufacturer with a shipment of 7.66 million units in Q3, a 9.7% increase quarter-over-quarter, raising its market share to 15.4%, a record high for the same period [6] Size Segment Trends - The penetration rate of large-sized TVs (60 inches and above) reached 28.2% for the first time, driven by increasing demand and subsidy policies in China [7] - Samsung and Hisense led the 65-inch and 75-inch markets with market shares of 26% and 22%, respectively [7] - TCL dominated the 98-inch market, while Hisense maintained a near 50% market share in the 100-inch segment [7] - Despite a decline in overall shipment volumes for smaller-sized TVs, Samsung retains a stable advantage in the 60-inch and above segment with a market share of 22% [7] Market Outlook - As the effects of subsidy policies in the Chinese market wane, growth in large-sized TV shipments is expected to slow significantly, with 65-inch shipments nearly stagnating and 75-inch growth rates dropping to 13%, half of the previous year's figures [8] - The focus of brands is shifting from merely increasing size to upgrading product specifications, emphasizing differentiation through advanced features such as RGB Mini LED, high refresh rates, and AI integration [8]
每周观察 | DRAM供应吃紧推高DDR5合约价;预估2026年AI服务器出货将年增逾20%;IT OLED面板大世代竞争升温
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-31 04:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the tightening supply of DRAM, which is driving up the contract prices for DDR5, with expectations that profits in 2026 may surpass those of HBM3e [2] - According to TrendForce's latest survey, the contract price for Server DRAM is expected to rise significantly in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from global cloud service providers (CSPs), leading to an overall increase in DRAM prices [2][3] - The revised forecast for Conventional DRAM prices has been adjusted from an initial increase of 8-13% to a new range of 18-23%, indicating a strong upward trend [3] Group 2 - The AI Server industry analysis by TrendForce indicates that demand from CSPs and sovereign clouds will remain robust in 2026, with global AI server shipments expected to grow by over 20% annually, increasing their share of the overall server market to 17% [6] Group 3 - The competition in the IT OLED panel market is intensifying, with significant investments in the 8.6-generation OLED production lines from various manufacturers, including Samsung Display and Chinese firms like BOE and TCL CSOT [9]
解锁市场展望与机遇,2025自发光显示产业研讨会核心亮点全览
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-31 04:08
Core Insights - The 2025 Self-Luminous Display Industry Seminar held by TrendForce highlighted the promising future and opportunities in the self-luminous display sector [2][5]. Group 1: Micro LED Commercialization - The commercialization of Micro LED is accelerating, particularly in wearable devices, large displays, automotive displays, and non-display applications, despite facing challenges such as high costs and power consumption [9]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung, LG, and BOE are planning to mass-produce Micro LED displays larger than 100 inches, with cost reduction being a common goal [9]. - In automotive displays, Micro LED's high brightness and contrast are advantageous, but issues like color shift at high temperatures remain [11]. - Micro LED shows potential in non-display applications, such as adaptive headlights and light interconnect technology for AI server cabinets, with interest from major companies like Apple and Microsoft [11]. Group 2: AR Glasses Development - AR glasses are seen as suitable devices for integrating AI functionalities, with major companies prioritizing the release of AI glasses before AR glasses [14]. - The main technologies in display for AR glasses include LCoS, OLEDoS, and LEDoS, with LEDoS gaining market attention for its diverse color technology [16]. - The optical technology for AR glasses is leaning towards waveguide solutions, with diffraction waveguides being a mainstream option [17]. Group 3: Global LED Display Market - The global LED display market is projected to grow slightly to $7.5 billion by 2025, with demand in the domestic market not showing significant improvement due to price declines from increased competition [21][23]. - The market is segmented into developed regions, where demand is weak due to tariffs, and developing regions, where LED display adoption is increasing [21]. - Long-term trends indicate continued penetration into developing markets, small to medium-sized clients, and emerging applications, with a forecasted market size of $10.2 billion by 2029 [23].
光伏周价格 | 产业链供需双弱,价格走势聚焦政策落地
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-30 04:43
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to potential price declines across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules [4][8][11]. Polysilicon - Current industry inventory remains above 420,000 tons, with expectations of further increases due to high downstream inventory and cautious purchasing behavior [4]. - Supply dynamics are mixed, with some manufacturers achieving full production while others are reducing operational rates, indicating a complex supply landscape [5]. - The market is anticipated to experience a "supply-demand dual weakness" in November, with high inventory levels putting pressure on prices, although major polysilicon producers show slight willingness to maintain prices [6]. Wafers - Wafer inventory is currently above 20 GW, with a prevailing expectation of price declines as battery manufacturers slow down their procurement [7]. - The overall transaction prices for wafers have slightly decreased, with first-tier companies showing price support while second and third-tier companies are increasing low-price orders [8]. - The market expects wafer manufacturers to potentially implement production cuts to stabilize prices amid high supply pressure [8]. Cells - Battery inventory is maintained at around 5-7 days, with a notable differentiation in inventory levels based on size, particularly with 210 RN facing less pressure compared to 183 N [9]. - The overall price outlook for November indicates continued downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand and the influence of component pricing [10]. Modules - The demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to decline as the winter season approaches, with domestic and international installation demands decreasing [11]. - Short-term demand is primarily supported by domestic centralized projects, particularly for 210 models, but this is expected to diminish as project deliveries conclude [11]. - Overall, the module market is under pressure from declining terminal demand and insufficient order reserves, leading to a challenging pricing environment [12].
研报 | CSP、主权云需求持续强劲,预估2026年AI服务器出货将年增逾20%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-30 04:43
Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow significantly, with global shipments projected to increase by over 20% in 2026, reaching a 17% share of the overall server market [2] - In 2025, AI server shipments were slightly revised down to a 24% growth rate due to delays in NVIDIA's product rollout, while the market value is expected to grow by nearly 48% [5] - The competitive landscape for AI chip suppliers indicates that NVIDIA will hold about 70% of the market in 2025, but this is expected to decline in 2026 as North American CSPs and Chinese self-developed chips gain strength [5] AI Server Market Performance - The AI server market is driven by robust demand from cloud service providers and sovereign cloud initiatives, alongside the flourishing of AI inference applications [2] - The value of AI servers is anticipated to grow by over 30% in 2026, with revenue from AI servers expected to account for 74% of the overall server market [5] HBM Consumption and Pricing - HBM consumption is projected to increase by over 70% in 2026, driven by high demand for advanced AI chips and the introduction of new products [6] - The demand for HBM is expected to rise by over 130% in 2025, with a continued increase in 2026 due to the penetration of new chip models [6] - HBM3e pricing is expected to rise by 5-10% in 2025, but competitive pressures may lead to price reductions in 2026 as multiple suppliers enter the market [6][7] Future Developments - HBM4 is currently in the sampling phase, with expectations for higher sales prices compared to HBM3e, although potential price negotiations may arise if all suppliers complete their validations [7]
研报 | DRAM供应吃紧推高DDR5合约价,2026年获利有望超越HBM3e
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-29 09:32
Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated increase in Server DRAM contract prices in Q4 2025, driven by the expansion of data centers by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2][3] - TrendForce has revised its price forecast for Conventional DRAM from an initial increase of 8-13% to a new range of 18-23% [2][3] Price Forecasts - The revised price increase for Conventional DRAM is now projected at 18-23%, while HBM Blended is expected to rise by 23-28% [3] - The original forecast for Conventional DRAM was an increase of 8-13%, and for HBM Blended, it was 13-18% [3] Market Outlook for 2026 - Server shipment volume is expected to grow by approximately 4% in 2026, with CSPs adopting high-performance computing architectures, leading to increased DRAM capacity per server [5] - The strong demand for servers is anticipated to keep DDR5 contract prices on an upward trend throughout 2026, particularly in the first half of the year [5] Competitive Landscape - As of Q2 2025, there was a significant price gap of over four times between HBM3e and DDR5, with HBM3e providing better profitability for suppliers [6] - However, as DDR5 prices continue to rise, the price gap is expected to narrow significantly by 2026, with DDR5 profitability surpassing that of HBM3e starting in Q1 2026 [6] - Suppliers may increase the supply of Server DDR5 to solidify their profit base, while also potentially raising average selling prices (ASP) to balance product profitability [6]
研报 | IT OLED面板大世代竞争升温,FMM阵营领跑、FMM-free阵营加速推进
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-28 05:51
Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the IT OLED panel industry, particularly the initiation of the 8.6-generation OLED production lines by various manufacturers, marking a competitive landscape in the market [2][7]. Group 1: Industry Developments - TCL CSOT has officially announced the commencement of its T8 project for the 8.6-generation OLED production line, joining other manufacturers in the investment race [2]. - Samsung Display Corporation (SDC) was the first to initiate the 8.6-generation OLED production line investment in 2023, utilizing traditional FMM evaporation technology and planning to introduce Tandem OLED technology to enhance screen longevity [5]. - BOE followed SDC's lead by announcing its own 8.6-generation OLED production line investment at the end of 2023, also employing FMM evaporation technology and Tandem OLED configuration, with production expected to start in the first half of 2026 [6]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Visionox is developing its own technology, ViP (Visionox Intelligent Pixelization), which promises higher pixel density and aperture ratio compared to traditional FMM, with plans to complete its 8.6-generation OLED production line by the fourth quarter of 2025 [6]. - TCL CSOT is adopting inkjet printing (IJP) technology for its production line, which theoretically reduces material waste by approximately 30%, with mass production targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027 [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - TrendForce indicates that the investment plans for both FMM and non-FMM production lines are proliferating, suggesting a future where the IT OLED panel supply chain will see a multitude of competitors [7]. - The FMM camp currently holds advantages such as established customer relationships and production experience, while the non-FMM camp is in its early development stage, facing challenges like lower yield rates and material development needs, but still has potential to catch up due to high market interest [7].