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研报 | 预计Meta AR新品推升2026年搭载LCoS产品占比上升至13%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-19 04:07
Core Insights - Meta has launched its first mass-produced AR device, the Meta Ray-Ban Display Glasses, which utilizes LCoS display technology, expected to increase the market share of LCoS display products to 13% by 2026 [2] - The global AR device shipment is projected to grow by 9.1% in 2025, reaching 600,000 units, driven by AI-enabled information prompt applications [2] - Meta's AR glasses feature a 20-degree field of view (FoV), a resolution of 600 x 600, a pixel density of 42 PPD, and a brightness of 5,000 nits, targeting the information prompt application market [2] Technology Analysis - Meta opted for LCoS full-color displays from OmniVision instead of the mainstream single green LEDoS technology combined with waveguide technology due to LCoS's maturity, cost control, and lower average power consumption [3] - The competition between LCoS and LEDoS is expected to intensify before significant breakthroughs in LEDoS technology occur, which are anticipated post-2028, potentially increasing LEDoS market share to 65% by 2030 [3] - Current challenges for LCoS include miniaturization, high brightness, and high contrast, with companies like OmniVision and Himax Display actively pursuing next-generation display technology [3]
研报 | 英伟达尝试调升HBM4规格,预期2026年SK海力士仍是最大供应商
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-18 09:04
Sept. 18, 2025 产业洞察 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查,因应AMD(超威)将于2026年推出MI450 Helios平台,近期 NVIDIA(英伟达)积极要求Vera Rubin server rack的关键零组件供应商提高产品规格,包括HBM4 的Speed per Pin须调升至10Gbps。尽管规格能否提升仍有变量,预计SK hynix(SK海力士)在 HBM4量产初期将维持其最大供应商的优势。 HBM4作为AI Server的关键零组件,其传输速度及带宽亦为规格精进重点。而base die为影响HBM传 输速度的重要因素。三大供应商中,Samsung(三星)于2024年将HBM4 base die的制程节点升级至 FinFET 4nm,目标于今年底前正式量产,预计传输速度可达10Gbps,10Gbps产品的产出比重将高于 对手SK hynix和Micron(美光)。 TrendForce集邦咨询表示,NVIDIA除了尝试提升HBM4规格,主要仍将考量供应量能。若供应量过 小,或新规格过度推升能耗或成本,NVIDIA可能放弃升级,或将平台产品分类,针对不同零组件等 级区分不同供 ...
光伏周价格 | 多晶硅控产持续挺价,下游跟涨动能已显不足
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-18 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting price stability in the face of rising costs and the impact of supply and demand dynamics on various segments of the market [4][10][14]. Group 1: Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain strong due to production control signals and a significant inventory of 400,000 tons, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain prices [4][6]. - The downstream market is experiencing low transaction volumes due to high inventory levels in the crystal pulling segment, leading to a lack of purchasing motivation among downstream enterprises [5]. - The price of polysilicon has reached 55 RMB per kilogram, with expectations for further increases in the future [6]. Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Silicon wafer inventory is currently around 16 GW, with some leading companies planning significant production cuts as the holiday approaches, while most maintain high operating rates [8]. - Demand is structurally differentiated, with 183N and 210N sizes in a state of supply-demand balance, while 210R shows weaker demand and stable prices [9]. - Overall, prices for silicon wafers and downstream battery cells are nearing the limits of market acceptance, making further price increases unlikely in the short term [10]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Cells - The inventory levels for battery cells remain healthy, with specialized manufacturers maintaining around 5 days of stock [10]. - Strong demand persists in the overseas market for 183N, and 210N orders remain robust, driven by pre-holiday stocking activities [11]. - Battery cell prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand and cost pressures, but there is a risk of price corrections post-holiday as stocking demand subsides [12]. Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - Current module prices are stable, but rising upstream costs are squeezing margins, leading to production cuts among some leading manufacturers due to insufficient orders [14]. - The industry is facing stricter production and sales limits as part of a self-regulatory effort to stabilize prices across the supply chain [15].
研报 | 预估2025年全球笔电出货年增2.2%,东南亚产能持续扩张
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-17 09:01
Core Insights - The global laptop market is showing signs of recovery in 2025 despite geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties, with an expected annual shipment increase of approximately 2.2%, surpassing 180 million units [2][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second quarter of 2025 saw particularly strong shipment momentum, driven by zero tariffs on laptops imported from Southeast Asia and proactive inventory management by brands [4] - The education sector continues to stimulate demand, contributing to a 9.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments, with expectations of a 7.5% growth in the third quarter [5] Group 2: Southeast Asia's Role - Southeast Asia is emerging as a key production base outside of China, with significant investments from companies like Dell and Apple in Vietnam, leading to a projected 13.5% share of global laptop production capacity by 2025 [6] - Thailand is also becoming a notable production hub, with HP's initiatives leading to new production lines, and an expected capacity share of 6.7% by 2025 [6] - Other regions such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil are being prioritized for localized production due to government requirements, with an anticipated global capacity share of 3.7% by 2025 [6] Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand side of the global laptop market is benefiting from moderate replacement cycles and educational projects, while the supply side is diversifying due to capacity relocation and geopolitical factors [7]
研报 | AI推理需求导致Nearline HDD严重缺货,预计2026年QLC SSD出货有望趁势爆发
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-15 05:46
Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of AI-generated data on global data center storage, leading to a shortage of Nearline HDDs and a shift towards high-performance, high-cost SSDs, particularly QLC SSDs, which are expected to see explosive growth in shipments by 2026 [2][5]. Data Center Storage Trends - Nearline HDDs have traditionally been the main solution for cold data storage due to their low cost per GB, but the demand for cold data storage is rapidly increasing with the expansion of Inference AI applications [2]. - SSDs are primarily responsible for hot and warm data storage due to their high read and write performance, with QLC SSDs offering better efficiency and approximately 30% lower power consumption compared to Nearline HDDs [2]. Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Major HDD manufacturers have not planned to expand production lines, resulting in delivery times for Nearline HDDs extending from weeks to over 52 weeks, exacerbating the storage gap for cloud service providers (CSPs) [5]. - CSPs in North America are considering the use of SSDs for cold data storage due to the severe HDD shortage, but face challenges related to cost and supply chain management [5][6]. Pricing and Profitability - The demand shift towards SSDs presents an opportunity for suppliers to improve profit margins, but limited capacity for high-capacity products means suppliers are unlikely to significantly lower prices [6]. - A price negotiation is anticipated between buyers and sellers, leading to an expected 5-10% increase in overall Enterprise SSD contract prices in Q4 2025 [6].
每周观察 | 2Q25前五大企业级SSD品牌厂营收;二季度全球智能手机生产总数达3亿支;Micro LED芯片市场;牵引逆变器…
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-13 02:04
Group 1: Enterprise SSD Market - The revenue of the top five enterprise SSD brands reached over $5.1 billion in Q2 2025, showing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.7% [2][3] - Samsung led the market with a revenue of $1,899 million, holding a market share of 34.6%, although it experienced a slight increase of 0.5% compared to the previous quarter [3] - SK Group (SK hynix + Solidigm) saw significant growth with a revenue increase of 47.1%, reaching $1,461.7 million and capturing a market share of 26.7% [3] Group 2: Smartphone Production - Global smartphone production reached 300 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 4% and a year-over-year increase of 4.8% [4][5] - Oppo and Transsion brands contributed to the recovery in production after inventory adjustments, indicating a positive trend in the market despite ongoing economic challenges [4] Group 3: Micro LED Technology - The penetration of Micro LED technology in consumer electronics is accelerating, with significant products like the Garmin Fenix 8 Pro smartwatch expected to adopt this technology by 2025 [7] - The Micro LED chip market is projected to grow to $461 million by 2029, driven by the introduction of key products in various sectors [7] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Inverter Market - The global installation of electric vehicle traction inverters reached 7.66 million units in Q2 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 19% [10] - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 52% of the installed inverters, surpassing hybrid vehicles for the second consecutive quarter [10]
研报 | 库存调整结束,2Q25全球智能手机生产总数达3亿支,季增约4%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-12 03:52
Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone production is expected to reach 300 million units in Q2 2025, driven by seasonal demand and recovery in production from brands like Oppo and Transsion, despite ongoing economic challenges affecting consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global smartphone production is projected to increase by approximately 4% quarter-over-quarter and 4.8% year-over-year in Q2 2025 [2]. - The Chinese market's subsidy policy has temporarily boosted sales of mid-range products, aiding inventory reduction, but its overall impact on 2025 sales is expected to be limited due to constraints on subsidy amounts and product coverage [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Samsung remains the largest producer with 58 million units, experiencing a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter, holding a 19% market share [3][5]. - Apple produced 46 million units, down 9% from the previous quarter, but up 4% year-over-year, reflecting growth driven by the new iPhone 16e [5][6]. - Xiaomi's production totaled 42 million units, a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter, maintaining a 14% market share [3][6]. - Oppo's production surged by 35% to 37 million units as inventory adjustments concluded, securing a 12% market share [3][6]. - Transsion produced over 27 million units, a 33% increase quarter-over-quarter, with a year-over-year growth of 15.7%, capturing a 9% market share [3][6]. - Vivo's production rose by 8% to 26 million units, also benefiting from the Chinese subsidy policy, maintaining a 9% market share [3][6].
光伏周价格 | 光伏全产业链价格上涨,下游积极备货
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-11 06:03
Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the photovoltaic industry, driven by anticipated supply reductions and proactive inventory strategies from downstream manufacturers [4][6][7]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have increased due to proactive purchasing strategies from downstream manufacturers, who are concerned about future price hikes and supply shortages [5][6]. - Despite high inventory levels of approximately 400,000 tons, expectations of significant production cuts in October due to seasonal factors are leading to a tightening supply outlook [4][6]. Group 3: Wafer Market - The wafer market is experiencing a recovery in profitability and operational rates, with current inventory levels around 16 GW considered healthy [9][10]. - Demand for wafers is supported by increased production in the battery segment and proactive inventory strategies from battery manufacturers [10][11]. Group 4: Cell Market - The overall inventory of solar cells is declining, with a healthy level maintained at around 5 days for specialized manufacturers [12]. - Demand for solar cells is bolstered by proactive purchasing from downstream component manufacturers, who are anticipating further price increases [13][14]. Group 5: Module Market - The price of photovoltaic modules has shifted upward, with current market prices in the range of RMB 0.66-0.68 per watt, indicating a positive short-term outlook [15][16]. - The fourth quarter is expected to be a traditional peak season, with strong demand and supportive policies contributing to a bullish market consensus [18].
研报 | 2Q25全球牵引逆变器装机量年增19%,增程式电动车助力SiC机种普及
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-10 09:02
Core Insights - The global electric vehicle (EV) traction inverter installation reached 7.66 million units in Q2 2025, marking a 19% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales [2] - BEVs accounted for 52% of the inverter installations, maintaining the largest share, surpassing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) [2] Market Performance - BYD and Denso lead the market with shares of 17% and 14% respectively, while Huawei's market share increased from 3% to 4% due to the popularity of BEV and REEV models [5] - Inovance has also established itself among the top five suppliers in the market [5] Semiconductor Application - The penetration rate of silicon carbide (SiC) in inverters rose to 17% in Q2 2025, primarily used in BEVs and gradually expanding to PHEVs and REEVs, with the latter two accounting for nearly 19% of installations, all contributed by Chinese manufacturers [6] - The adoption of SiC in REEVs reached 20%, second only to BEVs at 31%, indicating a growing demand that does not detract from other vehicle types but rather expands the overall inverter market [6] - The demand for inverters in PHEVs, REEVs, and BEVs is predominantly driven by the Chinese market, prompting international semiconductor companies like Infineon to increase their production share in China [6]
研报 | Micro LED手表催化应用成长,预计推动2029年芯片市场规模突破4.61亿美元
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-09 09:02
Core Insights - The penetration rate of Micro LED technology in consumer electronics is accelerating, with significant product launches such as Samsung's 140-inch Micro LED TV in 2023 and Garmin's Fenix 8 Pro smartwatch in 2025, indicating a broader adoption across major sectors [2][4] - TrendForce forecasts that the Micro LED chip market value will reach $461 million by 2029, driven by the introduction of these key products [2] - Despite challenges such as high power consumption and pricing, Micro LED technology is expected to evolve and compete with more established OLED technology as it meets specific needs in outdoor environments and offers potential for product innovation [4][5] Market Dynamics - The current market acceptance of Micro LED's high power consumption and cost remains a significant challenge, hindering its short-term competitiveness against OLED [4] - The Fenix 8 Pro smartwatch, utilizing components from AUO, PlayNitride, and Raydium, showcases the growing Micro LED supply chain and the potential for cost optimization and technological maturity as applications expand [5] - Micro LED technology is gradually commercializing across various fields, including TVs, smartwatches, and automotive displays, marking significant technological breakthroughs with high brightness and contrast advantages [5]