Group 1 - TSMC's 2nm capacity has been fully booked by global tech giants, with AMD planning to produce 2nm CPUs in 2026, and Google and AWS adopting this process in Q3 and Q4 of 2027 respectively [3] - Oracle plans to raise $45-50 billion through debt and equity issuance, including a proposed $25 billion bond issuance, to expand cloud infrastructure to meet the demands of clients like AMD, Meta, and NVIDIA [3] - Tesla announced the upcoming launch of its third-generation humanoid robot, Optimus V3, with an expected annual production of one million units; however, sales in the European market have been weak, with a 42% year-on-year drop in France and an 88% decline in Norway [3] Group 2 - Zhou Dasheng plans to conduct a forward leasing of 4,000 kg of gold to hedge against price risks [5] - SAIC Motor produced a total of 338,700 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 4.01%, and sold 327,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [6] - Changfei Fiber announced that new products related to data centers account for a small proportion of total demand [7] - Aixin Yuanzhi has initiated an IPO, expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 10, focusing on AI inference system chips, with a projected market share of 24.1% in the mid-to-high-end visual AI inference chip segment by 2024 [8] Group 3 - Devon Energy announced a $21.4 billion all-stock acquisition of Coterra Energy, with the merger expected to yield approximately $1 billion in pre-tax synergies [10] - Amazon announced layoffs of nearly 2,200 employees in Washington state, as part of a broader reduction of about 16,000 positions [10] - Meta maintains a "buy" rating from Huaxing Securities, with a target price raised to $910, driven by a surge in AR glasses orders and a $6 billion procurement of Corning fiber for AI data center construction [10] Group 4 - Toyota aims to surpass Volkswagen in global sales by 2025, with its Indonesian plant starting localized production of hybrid batteries to reduce costs [12] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to start expanding advanced NAND flash memory production in Q2 to meet AI storage demands, with HSBC raising its target price for Samsung to 230,000 KRW [12] - Hyundai Motor confirmed its complete exit from manufacturing in Russia, while its Indian subsidiary reported a 6.8% year-on-year profit increase in Q4 [12] Group 5 - ASML continues to receive positive outlooks from institutions, with Citic Securities maintaining a buy rating and a target price of $1,620, while ING raised its target price from €1,350 to €1,500 [17] - Volkswagen Group has launched the ID. UNYX 07, its first locally developed model based on the CEA electronic architecture in China, marking a deepening of its electrification strategy [17] - Mercedes-Benz has reduced the official guide prices for some entry-level models by 10% to 12% to alleviate dealer inventory pressure [17]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on February 2, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [3][4]. - The interbank market remains stable, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising over 3 basis points to approximately 1.36% [5][6]. - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.60%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7][8]. Bond Market - The yield on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [12]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 300 billion yuan in 28-day discount treasury bonds on February 3 [17]. - Agricultural Development Bank will issue up to 100 billion yuan in financial bonds on February 3 [17]. Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new tax deduction measures for long-term assets, effective from January 1, 2026 [13]. - The central government approved a spatial coordination plan for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban system, aiming to enhance the capital's influence and optimize urban structure [13]. Risk Monitoring - Recent non-standard asset risks in urban investment include several defaults and risk alerts related to various investment plans and trust products [19].

当你面对IMF的"乐观"、OECD的"警告"和世界银行的"谨慎"时，到底该信谁？ 我们都知道不该偏信一家，而应寻找市场共识。问题是，当你面对几十份观点互斥的报告时，"一致预 期"到底是多少？ ▲ 2026年美国GDP预测分歧 (注：各机构预测发布时间存在差异，仅供参考) 正如这张图所示，权威机构间的分歧巨大。 就在这种分歧中，你即将向投决会汇报。老板的灵魂拷问已在耳边：" 你的判断依据是什么？市场共识 究竟是什么？ " 你无法回答。因为手中的报告本身就在"打架"。所谓的"一致预期"不过是你凭感觉加权平均的"艺术 品"。 这种模糊且无法回溯的决策，正让你暴露在风险中。 我们需要换一种方式：告别主观的"阅读理解"，转向客观的"量化决策" 。 Wind 「全球 经济展 望雷达」上线 它不是一个搜索引擎，它能成为你的 得力宏观量化助理 。依托Wind EDB底层数据与大模型推理能力， 它能将海量机构观点 一键提炼为量化情绪雷达 。 现在，立即切换至你的量化决策模式。 启动路径，一步即达： 你需要的是 客观标尺 ，而非个人诠释。 Agent运用同一套NLP算法，将所有文本——无论"强劲"还是"谨慎"—— 统一量化为0- ...

1 、 亚太金融市场遭遇"黑色星期一"，美联储政策不确定性引发抛售。 韩国综指收盘跌 5.26% ，印尼综指跌 4.88% ，盘中均一度触 发熔断。日经 225 指数跌 1.25% 。 A 股、港股三大股指均跌超 2% ，资源股遭遇重挫，国内期货市场大宗商品 10 多个品种跌停。泰 国黄金线上期货一度暂停交易。 2 、 周一国投白银 LOF 复牌后"一字跌停"，国投瑞银盘后发布公告称，由于国际白银价格极端波动，为避免基金净值虚高，决定参考 国际白银价格调整基金估值。 2 月 2 日，调整后的净值为 2.2494 元，单日跌幅高达 31.5% ，创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录。据此计 算，目前二级市场价格溢价率达 109.92% 。 3 、 上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作，浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区为首批试点区。 第一批拟收购房源将着重房型匹配、 布局合理、配套成熟、交通便捷等特点，尽量精准匹配各领域人才"职住平衡"需求。 1 、 中共中央、国务院批复同意《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划（ 2023 － 2035 年）》， 要求建成以首都为核心的世界一流都市 圈、先行示范中国式现代化的首善之区，支撑京津冀世 ...

周一，国际贵金属市场延续上周五的剧烈抛售行情，黄金与白银双双下挫，跌势进一步加深。 此前在避险需求和投机资金推动下，金银价格刚刚刷新历 史高位，但随着美元走强、获利了结集中涌现，市场动能迅速衰减，短期走势出现明显反转。 盘面数据显示，现货黄金周一一度下跌约10%，报每盎司4405美元左右。 此前上周五，金价单日暴跌近10%，一举跌破5000美元整数关口，创下近年来 罕见的剧烈回撤。白银表现更为极端，在上周五录得自1980年3月以来最惨烈的单日跌幅后，周一继续承压下行，现货价格一度下跌约15%，至每盎司72 美元附近。此前持续数周的强势上涨行情在短时间内被彻底扭转，市场波动显著放大。 分析人士普遍认为，本轮调整的直接背景，是上周五市场出现的"急刹车式"反转。此前，投资者围绕美联储未来降息的乐观预期不断加码贵金属多头仓 位，但这一共识在关键时点遭遇冲击。随着美国总统Donald Trump宣布拟提名前美联储理事Kevin Warsh接替现任主席，市场迅速重新评估未来货币政策 路径，对利率与流动性环境的预期出现明显分歧。 宏观层面，本周的另一大焦点是即将公布的美国1月非农就业报告。根据道琼斯调查，经济学家预计当月新 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that OpenAI invited Nvidia for an investment of up to $100 billion, but this investment is "not a commitment," and Nvidia will invest in OpenAI gradually [2] - Tencent launched a 10 billion red envelope campaign and announced the public beta of Yuanbao, which quickly rose to the top of the free app rankings in the Apple Store [2] - From January 1, 2026, the value-added tax rate for telecommunications services will increase from 6% to 9%, impacting the revenue and profits of China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom [2] Group 2 - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in January were 210,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.11%, attributed to intensified market competition and consumer hesitation before the Spring Festival [5] - Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January, continuing to capture market share with cost-effective models; NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 96.1% [6] - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27%, while Li Auto's deliveries fell by over 7% [6] Group 3 - Oracle is facing severe funding difficulties due to challenges in financing for AI data center expansion, considering large-scale layoffs of 20,000 to 30,000 employees to release $8 billion to $10 billion in cash flow [8] - Blue Origin will pause space tourism flights for at least two years to focus resources on accelerating the development of its lunar lander and other lunar technologies [8] - GameStop's CEO Ryan Cohen announced plans to acquire a large publicly listed consumer retail company to support a target of $35 billion in annual revenue by the end of fiscal 2026 [9] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics expects an operating profit of 20 trillion KRW in Q4 2026, a year-on-year increase of 208%, with memory business operating profit projected at 35 trillion KRW in Q1 [11] - Toyota is accelerating its smart electric transformation in China, with January sales in India reaching 33,880 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [12] - SK Hynix is benefiting from soaring prices of memory and flash storage, contributing to a 102.7% year-on-year increase in South Korea's semiconductor exports in January, reaching $20.5 billion [12]

从盘面表现看，虽然目前跌幅有所收窄，但现货黄金在周一亚洲早盘一度下跌约4%，跌破多个关键技术支撑位；白银跌幅更大，盘中最大跌幅超10%， 延续了前一交易日创纪录的单日暴跌。 此前连续数周的单边上涨行情被迅速扭转，市场从"逼空式上涨"切换为"踩踏式下跌"，多空力量在极短时间内完 成逆转。 伦敦银现 W SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC 85.259 总量 昨结 0 81.506 现手 80.982 0 -4.40% 开盘 -3.753 最高价 83.475 持 仓 外 盘 0 0 最低价 78.495 增 仓 内 盘 0 0 月K 周K 分时 五日 日K 更多 < ( ) EXPMA5:95.229 ↓ 20:92.635↓ 60:76.073↑ 120:63.622 ↑ 叠加 设均线 128.456 121.647 - 85.126 48 601 41.795 02-02 2025-11-21 12-10 12-29 2026-01-15 周一亚市盘，国际贵金属市场在上周五剧烈调整后延续震荡走势，黄金与白银继续走弱，但盘中跌幅较早段明显收窄，市场情绪仍处于去杠杆与风险再定 价阶段。此前一度冲高至历史高位附近的金价 ...

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

股价可以炒预期，但业绩不会说谎。一年一度的交卷时刻到了：1月29日，共197家公司披露 业绩预警、6家披露快报。 结构上，预增53家、扭亏30家占比较高，但首亏26家、续亏48家也不低；行业分布则集中在硬 件设备、机械、电气设备、半导体等方向。 谁在裸泳，谁在闷声赚钱？顺着业绩这条线，我们筛出了三个值得关注的行业： 完整业绩预报内容请点击上方卡片查看 半导体"量价齐升"，龙头业绩已验证 国内晶圆厂扩产带动设备采购需求，后道设备国产化率35%，仍有翻倍空间。 长川科技订单排 期已至2026Q2，士兰微半导体产线满负荷运行，整体行业处于 "量价齐升" 阶 段。 政企端采购预算释放， C端渗透率提升，AI硬件已进入放量周期，软件商业化拐点初现。 | 长川科技 预增 | | | --- | --- | | 300604.SZ · 半导体 | | | 归母净利润 | 同比增长 | | 12.50亿~14.00亿 | +172%~+205% | | 士兰微 预增 | | | 600460.SH · 半导体 | | | 归母净利润 | 同比增长 | | 3.30亿~3.96亿 | +50%~+80% | | 安集科技 略増 ...

// 市场要闻 // 1、央行公开市场将有17615亿元逆回购到期 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场将有17615亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期1505亿元、4020亿元、3775亿元、3540亿元、4775亿元。此 外，本周三将有7000亿元91天期买断式逆回购到期。 2、成品油将迎调价窗口 根据"十个工作日"原则，本轮调价窗口为2月3日24时。据测算截至1月30日第八个工作日，参考原油品种均价为64.09美元/桶，变化率为4.68%，对应的国 内汽柴油零售价均上调190元/吨。 3、中国1月官方制造业PMI重回收缩区间 中国1月官方制造业PMI为49.3%，环比下降0.8个百分点；非制造业PMI为49.4%，下降0.8个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为49.8%，下降0.9个百分点。国家 统计局指出，1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平有所回落。受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，1 月非制造业商务活动指数有所回落，金融市场活跃度较高。 4、一批新规将自2月起施行 一批新规将自2月起施行，具体包括：《鼓励外商投资产业目录（2025年版）》；《制止滥用行政权 ...