1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 1 月 22 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2102 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 2102 亿元，中标量 2102 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1793 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 309 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 税期走款之际，银行间市场资金面略有收敛， D R001 加权平均利率升超 9bp 至 1.41% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价亦走高至 1.52% ， 且仅少量供给；非银机构质押信用债借入隔夜报价则在 1.60% 上下，高于上日。交易员称， 1 月是缴税大月，目前正值缴税走款之际，流动性供给有所 缩减，不过整体资金面情绪平稳。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.64% 。 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.61% 位置，较上日小幅上行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | ...

近日，黄金价格持续攀升，成为市场焦点。当前牛市的驱动因素与过往有何不同？其上行趋势能否延 续，又将如何结束？中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究负责人李昭博士在万得3C会议中，对黄金市场 的核心逻辑、潜在风险与配置策略进行了深度剖析。 核心观点：本轮黄金牛市逻辑已发生根本性重构，由传统的通胀与利率驱动，转向对全球货币体系与财 政信用的再定价。尽管短期存在过热回调风险，但长期牛市的基础依然坚实。 扫码回看完整会议 一、 牛市驱动力：从"利率锚"到"信用锚"的切换 传统黄金分析框架主要围绕实际利率与美元，但本轮行情中， 金价与实际利率、美元指数的传统负相 关性明显减弱甚至失效。 这标志着驱动逻辑的根本性变化。 深层驱动力：全球货币与财政信用体系的再评估。 市场正在对以美元为核心的全球货币体系以及主要 经济体的财政可持续性进行重估。美国财政赤字高企、债务规模持续扩张，引发了市场对美元长期购买 力及美国财政信用的担忧。黄金作为非主权信用货币的终极价值储存手段，其"信用对冲"属性被重新定 价和强化。 直接催化剂：央行持续购金与地缘风险。 全球央行，特别是新兴市场央行，为分散外汇储备风险，已 连续多年净增持黄金，为金价提供了坚 ...

3. 财政部等三部门发布公告，将创新企业CDR试点阶段有关税收政策延期至2027年12月31日。 期间，对个人投资者、公募基金转让创新企业CDR取得的 差价所得或差价收入，暂免征收所得税或增值税；对股息红利所得实施差别化个人所得税政策。 1. 针对"十五五"时期如何推动房地产高质量发展，住建部部长倪虹表示，将重点抓好两方面工作：一是有序推动"好房子"建设；二是加快构建房地产发展 新模式，有序搭建房地产开发、融资、销售等基础制度。在商品房销售上，推进现房销售制，实现"所见即所得"。 2. 格陵兰岛危机峰回路转。美国总统特朗普宣布，已与北约秘书长吕特就格陵兰岛问题达成协议框架。 如果这项方案最终得以落实，将对美国和所有北 约成员国都大有裨益。 特朗普表示，将不会实施原定于2月1日生效的关税措施。受此消息影响，美股直线拉升，三大股指均涨超1%；现货白银跳水，一 度跌超4%。 欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟领导人紧急峰会将按计划于当地时间1月22日晚间举行。 3. 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在达沃斯论坛发表讲话指出，人工智能已开启人类历史上规模最大的基础设施建设，总投入预计将达数万亿美元， 目前需要更多的 能源、土地和熟练工人。 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 1 月 21 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3635 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 3635 亿元，中标量 3635 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2408 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 1227 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面整体平稳向宽， D R001 加权平均利率降超 5bp 至 1.32% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价维持在 1.30% ，供给中规中 矩；非银机构质押信用债借入隔夜报价在 1.47%-1.48% ，较上日微降。交易员称， 央行 在公开市场灵活收放，维稳资金面，导致税期扰动小于预期。另 外近来结汇偏多，也增加了流动性投放。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.65% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.60% 附近，较上日下行超 1bp 。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主 ...

Group 1 - Apple is accelerating its AI strategy by developing an AI wearable device called "Pin" and plans to significantly revamp Siri into its first AI chatbot, codenamed "Campos" [2] - Intel has secured a substantial contract with the U.S. military for chip supply under the SHIELD project, with a maximum limit of $151 billion, boosting expectations for its defense electronics business [2] - TSMC is facing production bottlenecks in its advanced 3nm process due to surging AI demand, with all capacity booked until 2027, highlighting strong demand in the global semiconductor supply chain [2] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China to revive the AI chip market, emphasizing that AI represents a "platform shift" requiring trillions in infrastructure investment, with global AI venture capital expected to exceed $100 billion by 2025 [2] Group 2 - Alibaba's Qianwen series model downloads have surpassed 1 billion, making it the most popular open-source AI model globally, reinforcing the company's technological leadership in AI [4] - Vanke's bond extension proposal for "21 Vanke 02" has been approved, marking the company's first successful bond extension, with a scale of 1.1 billion yuan [4] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 7.6 billion to 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 due to industry adjustments and project sales underperformance, focusing on core areas for business transformation [4] - Cangge Mining has voluntarily reduced its potassium chloride production capacity from 2 million tons per year to 1.2 million tons based on resource conditions, without affecting existing production and sales plans [4] Group 3 - AI startup Anthropic PBC is raising at least $1 billion from investors, with annual revenue run rate doubling since last summer and projected to exceed $9 billion by the end of 2025 [6] - Meta's Super Intelligence Lab delivered its first batch of key AI models in January, with plans to focus on consumer products over the next two years [6] - Microsoft has resolved access issues with its 365 services and has introduced a basic subscription version of Microsoft 365 in China for an annual fee of 150 yuan [6] - Tesla clarified that there are no plans for layoffs or production cuts at its Berlin factory, while its Robotaxi fleet has reached 200 vehicles [6] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics is diversifying its HBM supply chain and has reported Q4 sales of 1.29 trillion won, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with operating profit rising 62% [10] - Toyota anticipates a cost burden increase of 5 trillion yen over 4.5 years and plans to raise prices for some suppliers while sharing chip data among Japanese automakers [10] - SK Hynix is projected to achieve record revenue and profit by Q4 2025, with plans to distribute a record year-end bonus of 640,000 yuan per employee [10] - LG Electronics is testing sodium-ion battery production at its Nanjing factory and has launched AI air conditioning products overseas [10] Group 5 - Volkswagen Group expects a net cash flow of 6 billion euros in the automotive sector for FY2025, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by lower operating capital and capital expenditures [13] - Rio Tinto anticipates an 11% increase in copper production to 883,000 tons by 2025, with a strong rebound in Q4 iron ore production [13] - Mercedes-Benz will unveil the 2026 S-Class on January 29, featuring heated seat belts to enhance low-temperature range and safety [13] - ASML's target price has been raised by JPMorgan from 587 euros to 800 euros, reflecting optimistic market expectations for semiconductor equipment demand [13]

最后，波兰央行宣布增持黄金，另外丹麦养老基金决定抛售美债，都在一定程度上利好黄金。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，美欧关税对峙，南美及格陵 兰岛的地缘影响等。 多家机构依旧看涨金价未来一段时间走势。 花旗近日表示，预计黄金目标价5000美元，白银目标 价100美元。鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及美联储独立性再次出现不确定性，花旗集团上调 了其对贵金属的短期展望。 1月21日亚市早盘，金价再创新高。 截至发稿，现货黄金报4818美元/盎司，再创历史新高；纽约期金报4820美元/盎司。两者涨幅均超1%。 | 蓝好彩 | 板块跟踪 | 品种热图 | 报价列表 | 主力排名 | 全球商品 | 中国商品 | 贵会属 有色金属 | 消费器 原油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 贵金属 | | | | | 名称 | | | | 现价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | | | | 4815.690 | | 52.720 | 1.11% | 11.52% | | 伦敦银现 | | | | 94 ...

2、 随着雪球大V"金浤"因"抢帽子"操纵市场被重罚，一批雪球投资大V被相继封号。 1月20日，雪球发布三则涉资本市场违规信息专项整治行动处置公 告，22个大V账号被永久封禁，其中包括被称为"雪球带货三大天王"的"杭州新城路"、"轮回666"和"福禄娃爷爷"。 3、 格陵兰危机与财政压力担忧引发全球债市抛售潮。 日本长期国债遭遇史诗级抛售，30年期和40年期国债收益率单日涨逾25个基点，40年期国债收益率 升至4%上方，为近30多年来首次。美国10年期、20年期、30年期国债收益率均上涨8个基点左右。丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension计划"清仓"美国国债， 称美国"不再是优质信用主体"。该基金截至2025年底持仓美债约1亿美元。 1、 国务院副总理何立峰出席世界经济论坛2026年年会并发表致辞。何立峰还应约分别与美国财长贝森特、英国财政大臣里夫斯举行中美经贸磋商机制和 中英经济财金对话机制双方牵头人会谈，就中美、中英经贸领域相关问题交换意见。 2、 国家发改委有关负责人介绍，2026年宏观政策要把发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。 其中，将优化"两新"政策的支持范围和补贴 标准；研究 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 20, with a fixed rate and a total of 324 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 324 billion yuan, while 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 5 basis points to around 1.37%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system maintained at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged credit bonds were around 1.49%, slightly higher than the previous day. Traders noted that the upcoming tax period caused a slight increase in funding prices, but overall liquidity remained loose [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields. The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.52%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.09%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, stated that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum. The fiscal deficit and total debt will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending intensity will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger" [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Deputy Director, Wang Changlin, indicated that the current economic operation faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [12]. Group 6: Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13]. Group 7: LPR Rates - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, maintaining stability for eight consecutive months since a decrease in May 2025 [13].

Group 1 - X platform, owned by Musk, has open-sourced a new recommendation algorithm driven entirely by AI, removing all manual rules and features [2] - Netflix projects Q4 2025 revenue of $12.05 billion, up from the previous estimate of $11.97 billion, with an expected EPS of $0.56 compared to $0.43 last year [2] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to reduce NAND flash wafer production in 2026, with Samsung's output decreasing from 4.9 million to 4.68 million wafers, potentially exacerbating supply shortages [2] Group 2 - United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) collaborates with Microchip Technology's subsidiary to produce fourth-generation SuperFlash technology, enhancing its position in the automotive chip market [4] - Tongfu Microelectronics expects a net profit growth of 62.34%-99.24% in 2025, driven by semiconductor industry recovery and price increases from major chip manufacturers [4] - Aoke shares have developed a leading technology for lithium battery additives, set to begin trial production in January 2024, with a conversion rate exceeding 99% [4] Group 3 - Northeast Securities anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 69.06% in 2025, benefiting from improved market activity in brokerage and investment banking [5] - Liou shares have completed self-inspection and will resume trading, with AI-related business applications still not significantly impacting overall revenue [5] - Huayin Technology signs a sales contract worth 328 million yuan for special functional materials used in aircraft engines, positively impacting future performance [6] Group 4 - Nvidia's bond rating has been upgraded to AA1 by Moody's, and the company is participating in a $300 million investment in AI startup Baseten [8] - Microsoft warns of potential AI technology bubble risks while committing millions to support UN initiatives [8] - Amazon's CEO indicates that U.S. tariffs are beginning to raise prices on certain goods, while a Canadian bank raises its target price for Amazon stock [8] Group 5 - SoftBank's SBI Holdings invests $50 million in Clear Street to establish a joint venture in Japan for asset management services [11] - Toyota aims for over 1.78 million sales in China by 2025, marking a return to growth after four years, despite challenges in its electric vehicle segment [11] - BHP raises its copper production guidance for FY2026 to 1.9-2 million tons, maintaining its focus on copper as a strategic priority [13]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the central bank and other regulatory bodies, has announced a series of notifications to optimize personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies, extending the implementation period to the end of 2026 [3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy will now be effective from September 1, 2025, to December 31, 2026, allowing residents to enjoy subsidies for qualifying consumption during this period [3] - A new policy for small and micro enterprises has been introduced, providing a 1.5% annual interest subsidy on fixed asset loans, with a maximum subsidy loan size of 50 million yuan per entity, effective from January 1, 2026, for a period of up to 2 years [3] Group 2 - The service industry loan interest subsidy policy has also been extended until December 31, 2026, with specific provisions for loans issued between March 16, 2025, and December 31, 2025 [4] - A subsidy of 1.5% on fixed asset loans for equipment upgrades will be provided, applicable to loans issued from the date of loan issuance for a maximum period of 2 years, with the policy effective until December 31, 2026 [4] - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been established with a quota of 500 billion yuan, to be implemented over two years [4]