Workflow
中泰证券资管
icon
Search documents
中泰资管天团 | 李玉刚:挑战共识、提出有价值假说的能力,很难被AI替代
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-19 08:16
人类最伟大的能力,不是知道答案,而是永远保持提问与重构答案的可能。 L. G. Valiant 在规则明确、数据丰富的任务中AI已展现出越来越强大的超人类能力。比如OpenAI宣称,GPT-4参加了多 种基准考试,包括美国律师资格考试、法学院入学考试LSAT、SAT数学部分和证据性阅读与写作部分考 试等。在这些测试中,GPT-4得分高于88%的人类应试者。 AI技术的快速进展和成熟,无疑从很多方面影响和改变着我们的生活和工作方式,尤其是在 整合共识和 主流叙事、优化"已知"领域的运行效率 方面,现有的AI模型已体现出强大的能力。 相比与当前的AI,人类的价值和竞争优势体现在哪里?个人赞同以下观点, 保持对异常现象的好奇心, 勇于挑战共识,提出有价值的假说,仍是人类最值得珍视的能力。 AI的优势:高效整合历史经验和共识, 优化"已知"领域的运行效率 当前以大语言模型(LLMs)为代表的AI模型,仍然是一个 数据和计算驱动,基于历史频率、相关性及均 值的统计归纳系统 。它的"智能",是基于"同一事物可以通过无限种方式被陈述、表达和表征"这一事 实。其能力源于语言表征的泛化能力,即能够将一种表达方式转化为另一种表达 ...
充分发挥多层次资本市场枢纽功能 推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展——吴清主席在2025陆家嘴论坛开幕式上的主旨演讲
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-18 11:16
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of capital markets in promoting the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, highlighting the need for a more adaptable financial service system to support emerging technologies and industries [4][5][6]. Group 1: Capital Market Functions - Capital markets play a crucial role in providing a full chain of services from venture capital to public financing and mergers, catering to the needs of companies at various stages of development [6]. - The integration of capital markets can stimulate entrepreneurial spirit and enhance productivity by effectively connecting talent, technology, and data [6][9]. - The article notes that the proportion of technology companies among A-share listed companies has increased from 12% to 27% over the past decade, indicating a significant shift towards technology-driven enterprises [9]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Capital Markets - Recent reforms in China's capital markets have effectively expanded the coverage of technology innovation, with a multi-tiered market system supporting various types of technology enterprises [7][8]. - In 2024, A-share listed companies are expected to invest 1.88 trillion yuan in R&D, accounting for over half of the total R&D investment in society [8]. - The role of patient capital in supporting technology innovation has become more prominent, with private equity and venture capital funds participating in 90% of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [8]. Group 3: Future Directions for Capital Market Reform - The article outlines plans to deepen capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing inclusivity and adaptability to better support comprehensive innovation [10][11]. - Specific measures include leveraging the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a testing ground for reforms and introducing new standards to support high-quality technology enterprises [11][12]. - There is a commitment to fostering long-term capital and improving the investment environment for technology companies, including the establishment of specialized asset management platforms [13][14]. Group 4: Open and Inclusive Capital Market Ecosystem - The article stresses the importance of foreign investment in China's capital markets and outlines plans for further opening up, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [15][16]. - The goal is to enhance the participation of global investors in China's innovation-driven development, thereby facilitating efficient capital flow and resource allocation [15][17].
新华视点|科创板加力服务优质科技企业 资本市场包容性改革迎来新突破
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-18 11:16
新华社"新华视点"记者刘慧 本次科创板改革提出设置科创板科创成长层,备受关注。设置后,科创板现有和新注册的未盈利科技型上 市公司将全部纳入其中。同时,改革也对企业入层和调出条件、强化信披和风险揭示、增加投资者适当性 管理要求等做了针对性安排。 科创板作为"试验田",为何又要开辟出科创成长层这个"新空间"? 中国证监会18日发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层 增强制度包容性适应性的意见》,以设置专门层次 为抓手,重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准上市,推出一揽子更具包容性、适应性的制度改革。 在科创板开板6年之际,科创板改革进一步深化,标志着资本市场包容性改革迎来新突破。 新设科创成长层 科创板"试验田"又迎诸多制度突破 自设立之初,科创板就承担了资本市场支持科技创新和制度"试验田"的重要使命。科创板改革持续深 化,"试验田"先行先试的成色更足。 证监会新闻发言人介绍,新设科创成长层一是有利于进一步彰显资本市场支持科技创新的政策导向,稳定 市场预期;二是有利于为增量制度改革提供更可控的"试验空间",可以试点一些更具包容性的政策举措; 三是有利于对未盈利科技型企业集中管理,便于投资者更好识别风险,更好保护投资者合法 ...
读研报 | 当AH股溢价指数创下5年新低
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-17 10:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the AH Premium Index, which has reached a five-year low, indicating a significant shift in the pricing dynamics between A-shares and H-shares [4][6]. Group 1: AH Premium Index Trends - The AH Premium Index dropped to 127.84 points, the lowest in five years, compared to over 160 points in February 2024, reflecting a 0.8% percentile position over the past five years [4]. - The financial sector (including banks, brokers, and insurance) has contributed significantly to the decline of the AH Premium Index, accounting for 64% of the decrease since 2025, 60% since April 7, and 76% since June [8]. - The top 25 stocks, primarily state-owned enterprises and resource stocks, have contributed to 79% of the decline since 2025, 71% since April 7, and 85% since June [8]. Group 2: Sector Contributions - The weighted AH premium rate for growth stocks has narrowed significantly, from 64.6% to 42.2% as of June 6, with non-bank financials, banks, and oil & gas sectors being the largest contributors to this decline [9]. - The contributions from sectors such as automotive and pharmaceuticals were also noted, with respective contributions of -0.9% and -0.6% [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the AH premium rate remains uncertain, with varying opinions on whether it will continue to narrow or stabilize, depending on market sentiment and sector performance [9]. - Analysts suggest that the choice between A-shares and H-shares should not be oversimplified and should consider the specific investment strategies and profiles of different investors [11].
基本功 | 圈内爆词!最近很火的哑铃策略,究竟是什么?
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-17 10:02
基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 近期很热的哑铃策略 究竟是什么? 策略如其名, 类似哑铃, 两 头重中间轻。 哑铃策略是塔勒布在《反脆弱》一书中首次提及 的一种对抗不确定性的方法。策略核心在于选取 风险收益特性各异且关联度较低的资产进行搭配。 中泰资管616宠粉节来啦! 持有人参与,100%有奖,还有机会抽到 大疆 Pocket 3、足金金元宝、Labubu盲盒 等好礼! 年度宠粉王炸: 福利天花板,抽奖管够,高中奖率!速来~ 本材料不构成投资建议,观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不 保证基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资有风险,基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则,请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险,投资须谨慎。 扫码进入基本功专栏 ...
金融破段子 | 是中考作文题,也是提高投资收益的重点
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-16 09:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "mutual fulfillment" in the context of fund management and investor behavior, highlighting the importance of collaboration between fund managers and investors to achieve better investment outcomes [2][10]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Investor Returns - A recent report by Morningstar indicates that the five-year annualized investor return difference is negative for all fund products as of December 31, 2024 [7]. - Only passive non-sector equity products have outperformed their corresponding fund returns by nearly 3 percentage points, showcasing a unique case of positive investor return difference [8]. Group 2: Responsibilities of Fund Managers and Investors - Fund managers are tasked with enhancing research capabilities to generate substantial long-term returns for investors and improving communication regarding risk-return characteristics, especially for actively managed products [10]. - Investors need to invest time in selecting suitable funds and recognize the significance of timing in buying and selling, aiming to avoid poor investment practices such as increasing positions during price surges [10][11]. Group 3: The Role of Passive Non-Sector Equity Products - Passive non-sector equity products, particularly broad-based ETFs, exemplify "mutual fulfillment" as they clearly present risk-return characteristics and have a high proportion of institutional investors who contribute to market stability [10].
616宠粉节 | 大疆口袋相机、金豆、Labubu盲盒等你来抽
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-16 09:53
Group 1 - The core idea of the article is to celebrate the anniversary of the membership system by hosting an annual fan appreciation event on June 16, offering various prizes and engaging activities for participants [3][7]. - The event features a range of prizes including the DJI Pocket 3 camera valued over 3000 yuan, a 1g pure gold ingot, and Labubu blind boxes, among others [4][7]. - Participants can increase their chances of winning by completing tasks such as browsing the fund manager's profile, earning badges, and inviting friends to join the event [3][7]. Group 2 - The event is open to both certified and non-certified holders, with non-certified holders required to complete their certification before participating [5]. - The appreciation event aims to foster genuine connections and trust between the company and its members, moving beyond mere promotional activities [7]. - The event will run until June 30, 2025, encouraging participants to engage and invite friends for a collective experience [7].
防非宣传月 | 警惕股市黑嘴 远离非法荐股
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-13 05:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of illegal stock recommendations as a form of economic crime, highlighting the need for awareness and prevention measures against such fraudulent activities [2]. Group 1: Definition of Illegal Stock Recommendations - "Illegal stock recommendations" refer to activities where unqualified individuals or institutions provide paid consulting services related to stock investment analysis, predictions, or advice [3]. Group 2: Main Forms of Illegal Stock Recommendations - The primary forms of illegal stock recommendations include: - Online live streaming stock recommendations, where individuals act as "hosts" to promote stocks [4]. - Recommendations via social media platforms like Weibo and WeChat, where self-proclaimed "stock gods" or "experts" disseminate false investment information to lure investors into paying [5]. - Promotion of so-called "stock recommendation software" that claims to predict stock price movements, often charging high fees without delivering real results [5]. - Training sessions disguised as "financial education," where illegal stock recommendations are made under the guise of teaching investment strategies [5]. - Use of big data and AI for stock selection, where fraudsters fabricate success stories and promote tools that lead to significant losses for investors [5]. - Impersonation of licensed institutions to gain investor trust, often leading to scams involving fake apps and unwithdrawable funds [5]. Group 3: Prevention Measures Against Illegal Stock Recommendations - Effective prevention focuses on controlling both the "entry" and "exit" points: - "Entry" refers to the source of information; individuals should remain vigilant against unsolicited stock recommendations via calls, texts, or social media [6]. - "Exit" pertains to financial transactions; investors should avoid following stock recommendations, especially those tied to selling "membership" or "consulting services," and refrain from making hasty transfers [6].
近2年收益位列前1%,显著超额的红利基金有多香
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-13 05:55
自2022年3月24日成立至2025年3月31日,中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起的份额净值增长率为36.85%, 业绩比较基准增长率为7.02%,跑赢业绩比较基准29.83%。相比红利贝塔所提供的收益,这只基金的超额 收益显然更应该被看到。 这几年,红利风格凭借长期稳健的表现,拥有了越来越多的粉丝。 但一只优秀的红利主题基金,收益来源显然不只是贝塔;只有当红利主题叠加显著超额能力的Buff,才会 创造近2年位列前1%(19/2987)的优秀业绩(排名数据来源:海通证券,具体分类为混合型-主动混合开 放型-强股混合型,近2年排名数据为19/2987,数据截至2025.3.31)。 在计算超额收益时,很多人会用中证红利指数作为参考;但如果要求更高,不妨以中证红利全收益指为参 考。当然,对持有人来说,体验更好的超额收益,是在没有显著放大波动的情况下获得的。 中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起 自成立以来业绩及同期指数表现 | 简称 | 中泰红利优选一年 | 中证红利指数 | | 中证红利全收益 中证红利低波 中证红利质量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持有混合发 ...
中泰资管天团 | 姜诚:用现实主义的方法,实现理想主义的目标
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-12 09:35
Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets, and it is not limited to the stock market or specific to A-shares [2] Group 1: Concerns about Excess Returns - There is anxiety regarding the future application of value investing in asset management, including whether it can outperform the market and whether investors can trust active management again [2] - The concern about excess returns may be overblown, as it is a fact that all investors as a whole cannot achieve excess returns; total returns equal market returns minus transaction costs [2] - There will always be individuals who can achieve excess returns, which depends on their execution rather than the type of investment they make [2] Group 2: Active Management and Investor Trust - The challenge lies not only in whether fund managers can outperform the market but also in regaining investors' trust in active management [3] - Trust is asymmetric; while fund managers may remain calm during market downturns, investors often struggle to maintain composure [3][4] - The key to regaining trust in the fund industry is to align the returns of investors with the net asset value of the funds [4] Group 3: Communication and Performance - It is relatively easier for fund managers to outperform the market over a market cycle, but consistently doing so each year is challenging [6] - Effective communication during underperformance is crucial, as it is more beneficial than boasting during high-performance periods [6] - The approach of "accompanying" investors to foster long-term trust is one method being employed [6] Group 4: Volatility and Returns - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of investor losses [7] - The relationship between short-term volatility and long-term returns in the A-share market suggests that reducing volatility does not necessarily lead to lower returns [7] - The real challenge is finding methods to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [7] Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that can be challenged by reality, leading to errors in logic and assumptions [8] - A balanced approach that combines realism with idealism is necessary to achieve the goal of value investing and helping more people profit from it [8]