中泰证券资管

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基本功 | 为什么有的债基会买国债期货?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-22 09:52
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals are essential for successful investing [2] - The article discusses why some bond funds invest in government bond futures, highlighting the use of these futures as a hedging tool against risks in the cash market due to the strong correlation between futures and spot prices [3] Group 2 - The article promotes a special column for readers to engage with, offering incentives such as a chance to win various reading-related prizes by participating in a voting activity [6]
风险月报 | 中美互降关税后市场基本面、预期回暖,市场情绪有所下降
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-22 09:52
截至2025年5月20日,中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下: 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为42.04,较上月45.53有所下降,权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 结合上期数据来看,本期在估值和预期回暖的同时,情绪得分却有所下滑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升(本月43.53,上月38.93)。估值整体有所回升,其中国防军工回升最为明 显,但行业间估值分化现象依然延续。目前,28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算 机、汽车的行业估值高于历史60%分位数;农林牧渔、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场 整体估值的调整,反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所上升(本月55.00,上月48.00)。宏观分析师认为,4月金融数据显示政策靠前发 力和低基数支撑社融,实体经济融资需求仍弱。中美互降关税后,投资者对于全球经济形势的担忧情绪有 所缓解。 市场情绪较上月有所下降(本月34.07,上月50.89;分数越低表示市场情绪越低迷),需要指出的是,统 计期内市场预期体现的是专业投资者对于市场的判断,而情绪指标则反应的是整体市场的交易情况。 ...
李迅雷专栏 | 中美关税谈判的前景分析及应对
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-21 06:55
不少人把5月12日的中美高层会谈当成中美谈判,把《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》(以下简称《声 明》)当成谈判达成的协议,这显然存在一定误解。在会谈之前,今年截至5月12日,中美各自给对方加 征的关税分别为125%和145%,会谈之后,双方声明均免除对方其中的91%关税,另外24%的关税各自都 延期90天执行,并且在这90天内为这部分关税究竟征不征,少征还是多征进行谈判。以下就接下来的关税 谈判前景及对中国出口和经济的影响、我们应该如何应对展开讨论。 "芬太尼关税"能减免吗? 年初至今,美国对中国加征的关税且目前仍是实施的高达30%,其中的20%是美国以中国处置芬太尼不力 为幌子,分别在今年二、三月份各加征10%的关税。为此,中国决定从2月10日起,对原产于美国的部分 进口商品加征10%或者15%的关税。其中,对煤炭、液化天然气加征15%关税;对原油、农业机械、大排 量汽车、皮卡加征10%关税;自2025年3月10日起,对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税:鸡肉、小 麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税,对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关 税。 显然我国对"芬太尼关税"的反制是偏温和的,主要 ...
读研报 | 如何理解再创新高的微盘股?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-20 08:38
微盘股能在今年再创新高,恐怕在很多人的意料之外。 参考中邮证券金工团队的统计,近一季万得微盘股指数上涨17.15%,在38个宽基指数当中排名第1;近一年万得微盘股指数上涨64.6%,在38个宽基 指数当中排名第2。不仅如此,万得微盘股指数还连续5个月出现月度级别的K线上涨。 那么,该如何理解当下再创新高的微盘股呢? 有人觉得微盘股再创新高的背后,是 流动性充裕 的结构性行情。华创证券的报告中提到,小盘成长风格(科创50、北证50、国证2000、微盘股)有 望受益于更快落地的货币宽松。4月剩余流动性【M2同比-社融存量(剔除股权融资和政府债券)同比】从0.98%升至1.86%。叠加央行优化两项支持 资本市场的货币政策工具、支持中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"两项政策支持股市流动性,当下的小盘成长行情得到进一步加强。 参与人多的地方,关注点就得聚焦到资金面上。事实上,这不是小编第一次涉足微盘股话题,在过去的内容中,我们曾和大家探讨过 (请戳这里) ,微盘股策略赚的不是基本面的钱,而是估值的提升。此前国海证券的报告中通过分解股票收益为PE(市盈率)乘以EPS(每股收益),发现小微 也有人将此归因为 资金属性 所致。 ...
基本功 | 如何参与个人养老金投资?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-20 08:38
基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 扫码进入基本功专栏 持有人新福利! 参与投票本季心动好书,即可抽 超千元的墨水屏阅读器、姜诚同款阅读支架、读书 月卡、实体书 等悦读好礼,扫码即可直达 本材料不构成投资建议,观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不 保证基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资有风险,基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则,请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险,投资须谨慎。 如何参与 个人养老金投资? 参加人通过以下步骤 可完成相关操作: 首先,参加人可通过国家社会保险公共服务平台、 全国人社政务服务平台、电子社保卡、商业银行 等渠道 开立个人养老金账户。开户后,可以按月、 第 11月1日 1月1日 11月1日 11月 11 ...
金融破段子 | 一买就下跌,别总自嘲倒霉
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-19 10:19
Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices represents a significant market fluctuation, with international gold prices dropping nearly 10% from a high of $3500 per ounce, leading to a similar trend in domestic gold jewelry prices [2][4]. Group 1: Market Behavior - The phenomenon of buying gold and experiencing immediate losses is common, reflecting the unpredictable nature of investments, whether in gold, stocks, or funds [2][4]. - Historical data shows that gold prices have experienced extreme volatility, with significant increases and decreases over decades, indicating that price fluctuations are a normal part of investment [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The concept of diversification in investment is emphasized, suggesting that investors should not concentrate their assets in one area, but rather understand the logic behind new asset classes before investing [8]. - Investors are encouraged to prepare for potential losses by considering various scenarios before making purchases, which can help in maintaining discipline and avoiding emotional decision-making [11].
反洗钱|宣传短剧:保护自己 远离洗钱
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-16 09:19
2025年5月15日是第十六个全国公安机关打击和防范经济犯罪宣传日。中国人民银行上海总部联合上海市 公安局经侦总队、招商银行上海分行共同制作了反洗钱宣传短剧,提醒广大市民朋友防范洗钱风险,远离 洗钱犯罪,守护好自己的"钱袋子"。 来源:中国人民银行上海总部 持有人新福利! 参与投票本季心动好书,即可抽 超千元的墨水屏阅读器、姜诚同款阅读支架、读书 月卡、实体书 等悦读好礼,扫码即可直达 ...
直播实录 | 新消费崛起,旧消费还好吗?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-16 09:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of new consumption trends in China, particularly among younger consumers, and contrasts them with traditional consumption patterns, emphasizing the sustainability and structural nature of these new demands [3][4][6]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, represented by products like blind boxes and cultural creative goods, are rapidly gaining popularity among younger consumers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3][4]. - The demand for new consumption is driven by both functional and emotional value, with consumers seeking products that enhance their quality of life and provide emotional satisfaction [5][6]. - The current economic environment has led to a structural change in consumer demand, where consumers are willing to pay more for products that offer higher functionality and emotional value [6][7]. Group 2: Traditional Consumption - Traditional consumption categories such as liquor, food, and household appliances continue to have stable demand due to their essential nature, although their growth may slow down as market saturation occurs [7][8]. - The value provided by traditional consumption remains significant, even if the growth rate declines, as consumers' expectations for a better quality of life persist [7][8]. - Traditional brands can learn from new consumption trends to better engage with younger consumers and adapt their marketing strategies [9][10]. Group 3: Sustainability of Consumption Trends - The sustainability of new consumption trends is supported by historical patterns, where similar trends have emerged in the past, indicating a long-term demand for collectible and emotionally resonant products [6][8]. - The success of new consumption products often depends on their social attributes and the ability to create a strong brand connection with consumers, which can lead to sustained growth [10][11]. - The potential for cross-generational appeal exists if the products maintain their relevance and adapt to changing consumer preferences over time [11][12]. Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions in Consumer Brands - Mergers and acquisitions can enhance competitive strength in the consumer sector, especially in a stable market where companies seek new growth avenues [18][19]. - Successful acquisitions depend on the long-term profitability of the acquired business and the ability to integrate resources without compromising existing operations [20][21]. - The strategic alignment of acquired brands with the parent company's goals can lead to sustained growth and market expansion [19][21].