行行有说道， 与好朋友共启认知升级之旅 继去年凭借"中泰资管天团"栏目获得"公益投教案例君鼎奖"后，此次公司凭借"行行有说道"(视频）再次获得上 述荣誉。 该栏目是由中泰资管推出的行业科普视频，单期节目20多分钟，聚焦一个行业或细分领域，通过拆解行业发展 脉络、梳理上下游产业链及竞争格局，从生意的视角呈现行业图景，为投资者的决策提供扎实的研究支持。 截至2025年10月31日，节目累计发布11期视频，全网（抖音、B站、视频号等）播放量累计超200万。 在我们看来，投资是认知的变现。财富是一个人思考能力的产物，穿透行业本质，理解商业模式，才是适合大 多数人赚到明白钱的大道。因此，作为投资路上的好朋友，我们愿意通过自己的努力，与好朋友共启认知升级 之旅。 路遥知马力， 多次载誉见证持续竞争力 "中国证券业君鼎奖"是行业内最具权威性的评奖活动之一，受到金融从业人员与投资者的高度关注。此番第三 次问鼎综合大奖，充分体现了业界对公司综合实力的认可。 更值得一提的是，此次荣获的"权益团队君鼎奖"是公司权益团队第六次荣获该荣誉。路遥知马力，穿越牛熊周 期持续获得认可，说明了公司权益投研体系的有效性、业绩的长期稳定以及持续的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of micro-cap stocks, particularly in the context of the Shanghai Composite Index's fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, indicating a growing market interest in this segment [2]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Since 2010, the micro-cap stock index has outperformed major indices like the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 in most years, except for 2017 and 2020 [2]. - The absolute performance data shows that in 2015, the micro-cap index surged by 229%, while the CSI 300 only increased by 6% [3]. - In 2023, the micro-cap index recorded a 50% increase, significantly outperforming other indices [3]. Group 2: Excess Returns Analysis - The excess returns of the micro-cap index are attributed to PB (Price-to-Book) recovery and the switching between high and low valuations [8]. - The report indicates that the contribution of trading frequency to excess returns is limited, while the profitability of micro-cap stocks does not significantly influence their overall returns [8]. - The strategy behind micro-cap stocks is characterized by a "reverse selection" feature, where stocks that have risen significantly are removed from the index, allowing for a systematic "buy low, sell high" approach [6]. Group 3: Trading Strategy Insights - The micro-cap index employs a mechanism that automatically executes a rebalancing strategy, enhancing its ability to capture structural reversal opportunities during market volatility [6]. - The trading environment for micro-cap stocks is influenced by both short-term trading and momentum strategies, which can amplify volatility during periods of liquidity tightening or systemic risk [8].

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that a solid understanding of fund basics is essential for successful investing [2] - The article categorizes dividend indices into three main types based on their compilation focus, with the first type being those that primarily consider dividend yield, such as the China Securities Dividend Index, which targets companies with high dividend yields [3] - The second category includes indices that combine dividend yield with other factors, indicating a more complex approach to index construction [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently dropped below $94,000, erasing its gains for the year, despite having reached a historical high of $125,689 in October [2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2023, Bitcoin's price surged due to the narrative of a depreciating dollar, reaching a peak of $125,689 [2] - Institutions like Citigroup projected Bitcoin could rise to $135,000 by year-end, with an optimistic scenario suggesting a price of $199,000 [2] - After hitting a record high, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction, leading to nearly a 25% loss for investors who bought in October [2] Group 2: Preparedness for Investment - Psychological preparedness is crucial, as drawdowns are an inevitable part of investing, and understanding this can help manage emotions during downturns [4] - Cognitive preparedness involves recognizing the limits of one's knowledge and understanding the business models of investments, which can prevent panic during significant price drops [5] - Financial preparedness suggests using idle funds for investment to avoid forced selling during downturns, ensuring that investments do not become a burden on daily life [7]

Core Viewpoint - The podcast episode titled "When the Big Cycle Fails, Where is the New Macro Coordinate?" hosted by fund manager Tang Jun from Zhongtai Asset Management has gained significant attention, with over 60,000 listeners in a week, indicating a strong interest among investors in learning about macroeconomic frameworks and investment strategies [2][5]. Group 1: Framework Construction - The background and reasons for the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of the Merrill Clock are discussed [5]. - The "Credit-Money" framework is introduced, explaining how to describe the current macroeconomic state based on this framework [5]. - The current macroeconomic state leads to specific asset allocation conclusions [5]. Group 2: Allocation and Portfolio Construction - The distinction between active and passive allocation is made, highlighting the problems that active allocation can solve [9]. - Preparations required for engaging in active allocation are outlined [9]. - The role of FOF (Fund of Funds) in addressing specific issues is examined [9]. - The execution of strategic and tactical layers in investment is discussed [9]. Group 3: Reflections on Human Nature - The importance of understanding human behavior in the context of investment allocation is emphasized, inviting listeners to engage in a professional and rigorous intellectual exchange [6]. Group 4: Risk and Return Concepts - The concept of risk budgeting and how to construct a portfolio within a given risk budget is explained [9]. - The notion of return streams and which assets can represent different return streams is analyzed, drawing lessons from Bridgewater's practices [9]. - The significance of having a framework in investment decision-making is highlighted [9]. - The meaning of logic in investment and the application of probabilistic thinking in market timing are discussed [9].

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that a solid understanding of investment fundamentals is crucial for success [2] Group 2 - The article highlights the significance of the 10-year government bond as a benchmark in the bond market, often referred to as the "reference anchor" for pricing other bonds [3] - It explains that government bonds are backed by national credit, making them a low-risk investment and typically regarded as the benchmark for risk-free interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that relying solely on historical performance data to select consistently excellent active equity funds is challenging, and understanding the reasons behind a fund's strong performance is more crucial than analyzing past results [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance Analysis - The article reviews the performance and distribution characteristics of active equity funds over the past decade, indicating that understanding the investment philosophy and framework is essential for investors [1]. - A sample of 466 funds was analyzed, focusing on those established before June 30, 2015, with performance benchmarks including over 60% of the CSI 300 or CSI 800 indices [2]. - The cumulative return distribution of active equity funds was examined over two periods: from October 2015 to September 2020 (a bullish market) and from October 2020 to September 2025 (a challenging market) [4]. Group 2: Return Distribution Characteristics - The distribution of fund returns is right-skewed, indicating that most funds cluster around lower return values, with a long tail on the right side representing a few extreme high performers [7]. - In the difficult market environment from October 2020 to September 2025, the right-skewed distribution is particularly pronounced, suggesting that most funds will tend to perform around the market average [7]. Group 3: Mean Reversion in Fund Performance - The analysis categorized funds into five performance tiers based on cumulative returns, revealing that only 16% of the top-performing funds from the first period remained in the top tier in the second period, while 27% of the lowest-performing funds improved to the top tier [10]. - The distribution of funds across performance tiers in the second period shows no clear persistence, indicating that historical performance is not a reliable indicator for future fund selection [11]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For most investors, attempting to pick the next star fund is discouraged; instead, understanding the underlying philosophy and maintaining conviction during tough times is recommended [13]. - Utilizing broad-based index funds with controlled tracking error is suggested as a more rational and lower-risk long-term investment strategy for those unwilling to invest time in active management [13].

Global Landscape - The strategic interaction and policy choices between China and the US significantly impact global trade, industrial chain layout, and capital flows [4] - China is estimated to account for over 40% of global manufacturing capacity, reinforcing its influence in trade and industry [4] - The debt-driven growth model poses challenges but also reflects China's substantial policy resources and market development potential [4] Chinese Economy - The current economic situation is characterized as "high at the front and low at the back," with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making the annual target achievable [6] - Consumption grew by 4.5%, supported by policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, while investment saw a decline of 0.5% [6] - Exports were a highlight, increasing by 6.1%, particularly strong in emerging markets like Africa and ASEAN [6] "14th Five-Year" Plan Highlights - The plan emphasizes accelerating "technological self-reliance," aiming to build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone [8] - There is a strong push for consumption and increased social welfare spending, particularly in response to an aging population [8] - The establishment of a nationwide unified market is prioritized, optimizing resource allocation in energy, public services, and data [8] Asset Allocation Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, high-dividend assets are highlighted as scarce and valuable, with Hong Kong stocks offering a dividend rate 30% higher than A-shares [11] - Sectors like military, gold, and rare earths are recommended as strategic allocations in response to global geopolitical tensions [11] - Focus on AI technology sectors, including computing power and robotics, is essential as they represent a significant investment opportunity [11] - New consumption trends driven by younger demographics and single-person economies present emerging investment opportunities [11]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a recovery from the previous value of -0.3% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend for six consecutive months [2] - Key factors contributing to the improvement in price data include better food prices, rising gold prices, and robust travel consumption during the holiday season [2] Food Prices and Consumer Behavior - Food prices showed a notable improvement, with actual prices rising by 0.3% in October, contrary to the expected decline of 0.4% based on high-frequency wholesale prices [2] - The increase in gold jewelry prices contributed approximately 0.06 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI [2] - The demand for travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival led to significant price increases in accommodation (8.6%), air tickets (4.5%), and tourism (2.5%) [2] Weakness in Certain Price Segments - Despite the overall CPI recovery, certain segments like pork and tobacco prices remain weak, with pork prices declining by 2.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points [4] - Tobacco and alcohol prices also experienced negative growth, both decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting limited demand for non-essential consumer goods due to unhealed consumer sentiment [4] Durable Goods Demand - Reports indicate that the demand for durable consumer goods is not strong, with transportation tools showing a consistent year-on-year decline of 1.9% for three consecutive months [4] - The year-on-year growth rates for household appliances and communication tools have also decreased, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4] Urban vs. Rural Price Trends - There is a divergence in price trends between urban and rural areas, with urban CPI increasing by 0.3% year-on-year while rural CPI decreased by 0.2% [4] - The higher weight of food expenditure in rural consumption leads to a more pronounced impact from food price deflation, resulting in a weaker rural price index [4] Future Outlook - The increase in holiday-related consumption is seen as a temporary spike, and fluctuations in gold prices are expected in November [5] - For sustained improvement in CPI, ongoing policy support will be necessary, as the current factors driving CPI are not expected to be long-lasting [5]

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that a solid understanding of fund basics is essential for successful investment [2] Group 2 - Fund risk levels are determined through standardized evaluations by institutions, which assign a "risk label" to products. The risk levels range from R1 (low risk) to R5 (high risk) according to the guidelines [3]