Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a stable analytical framework and diversified asset allocation to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends in investment, highlighting that there is no optimal solution in asset allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The performance of FOF funds has been strong this year, attributed to effective diversified allocation strategies [6]. - The manager, Tang Jun, adjusts the allocation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks based on market conditions, demonstrating a responsive approach to market changes [1][6]. - Tang Jun actively participates in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military ETFs, capitalizing on structural opportunities in a complex market environment [1][8]. Group 2: Professional Background and Insights - Tang Jun's career spans quantitative investment, fund evaluation, and macro research, providing a solid foundation for his current asset allocation work [3][4]. - His experience in quantitative research has enhanced his ability to identify various market factors, which is crucial for effective asset allocation [3][4]. - The "Zhongtai Clock" research incorporates policy analysis to better fit the domestic market, addressing the limitations of the previously used Merrill Lynch Clock [4]. Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment and Market Trends - Tang Jun believes that while macro trends provide guidance for asset allocation, the timing of price reflections can be uncertain, necessitating continuous monitoring and dynamic adjustments [6][8]. - The current allocation shows a shift towards A-shares over Hong Kong stocks, indicating a responsive strategy to market conditions [6][8]. Group 4: Avoiding Common Investment Mistakes - The article discusses the common mistake of "chasing trends," where investors buy high and sell low, and suggests establishing a stable analytical framework to counter this behavior [10][11]. - Diversification is recommended to enhance the return stream and provide confidence in maintaining the analytical framework during market fluctuations [11]. - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial to avoid chasing trends, as short-term asset performance is often driven by the gap between fundamentals and market expectations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic conditions, suggesting that when the economy is "hypothermic," it may create a false sense of warmth, leading to misinterpretations of economic health [1][4]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to a disconnect between actual economic conditions and public perception [4]. - Japan's economic stagnation over 30 years post-bubble burst is highlighted as a case study, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 7.5% from 1991 to 2021, averaging an annual growth of just 0.25% [4][6]. Japan's Economic Decline - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [6][9]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, illustrating the prolonged economic downturn [9][11]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble's collapse, leading to ineffective economic policies [11][12]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed response in shifting from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to the prolonged economic stagnation [12]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [12][25]. - Public works spending was often misallocated, focusing on low-impact infrastructure projects in declining regions, leading to wasted resources [15][25]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - The article emphasizes the importance of targeted investment in emerging industries to avoid economic stagnation, as Japan failed to capitalize on new sectors like technology and renewable energy [19][20]. - Japan's experience serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of misallocated public spending and the need for coherent economic policies to foster growth [27][28].

西部证券的报告中提到，如果美国政府完全掌控了美联储的货币政策，也就掌控了美元的价值，美元储备 货币地位也将受到严重挑战。储备货币需要保证安全性，而当美元不再安全，黄金作为最典型的"安全资 产"将首先顶替美元位置。央行购金取代美元储备的趋势将加速，成为黄金确定性最强的需求。 华西证券的报告中直言"去美元化"是黄金走势的主线。黄金过去的定价与美元实际利率负相关。但最近几 年，尤其是2020年之后，黄金和美元之间的关系变为正相关。其背后是美元作为避险资产的地位正被动 摇。未来驱动黄金价格继续创新高的因素，或已不再是美国降息等传统因素，更多来自于黄金替代美元及 美元类资产成为无风险资产的代表。另外，去美元化趋势中最大的机构行为变化来自于各国央行。 金价再创历史新高！刚刚过去的周末，国际金价突破3600美元/盎司。 在此之前，金价其实经历了近4个月的高位震荡，市场分歧也曾一度较大。这一次的突破背后，究竟又发 生了什么？ 华泰证券的报告中提到，近期金价的再度突破，短期催化剂有三，一是联储年会后美元降息预期升温推升 低收益率货币和资产表现；二是近期美国总统特朗普再度加大对联储货币政策委员施压力度，强化了市场 对联储政策长期 ...

扫码进入基本功专栏 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 HV 品牌用在型? 衡量你拿着一只股票每年能 收到多少"利息"的关键指标。 股息,简单理解就是,公司赚的钱拿出一部分派 发给股东。股息率是这笔钱占当前公司总市值的 十例 公式早· 中泰证券资产管理 ...

最近和朋友聊天，一个直观的感受是，今年投资赚钱的朋友很多，但大家的烦恼似乎依然不少。 "这市场那么强，你说我要不要加仓，加点啥合适呢？" "涨的那么快最近会不会调一调啊？" "你说奇不奇怪，我买最多的偏偏涨最慢，买最少的反而已经翻了倍！" ……说实话，类似的问题，几乎每周都会出现在小编和朋友的聊天中，而我只能抱歉地表示，如果这些问 题我都有靠谱的答案，想必早已跻身投资界大佬之列。 下跌会焦虑，上涨有烦恼，所以有时不妨切换一下视角，换个提问方式。 与其问"要不要加仓"，不如问自己"加仓什么自己才有把握"。 今年不少朋友会有错过感，但错过本身其实并没有造成亏损。更多时候的亏损，是"错过-急躁-莽撞行 动"下的自乱阵脚。所以我们的建议是，别怕错过，错过是投资中经常发生的事情；相应的，加仓应该是 研究之后水到渠成的结果，而不是刻意为之的目的。 所谓"研究之后水到渠成的结果"，指的因为有机会用划算的价格买到质优标的而行动。伴随股指的上涨， 组合中部分标的也会因为水涨船高而出现潜在回报率下降的情况。此时就需要用潜在回报率更优的新标 的，来替换潜在回报率欠佳的老标的。 但这个动作的前提在研究上已经做好了准备、在价格上已经留 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fund's top ten holdings are concentrated in four industries: chips, aviation, chemicals, and liquor, with over 70% of the portfolio in these holdings, which is not considered overly concentrated compared to historical levels [3][4] Group 1: Industry Concentration and Analysis - The perception of concentration in only four industries is a misunderstanding, as the classification of certain stocks by market software may not accurately reflect their business relevance [3] - The chemical sector is broad, and the top holdings within this sector have low correlation in terms of revenue and profit drivers, indicating that the portfolio's concentration is not as significant as it appears [4] Group 2: Economic Cycle and Investment Strategy - The fund has historically not held "non-cyclical" stocks, as the investment strategy is based on a long-term optimistic view of the Chinese economy [5][6] - The need for strong macroeconomic analysis depends on the investment approach; the fund's strategy is based on bottom-up assessments of company value rather than macroeconomic cycles [6] Group 3: Correlation and Stock Selection - The fund aims to avoid business-level correlations rather than macroeconomic correlations, as most industries are inherently linked to macroeconomic cycles [7] - Statistical correlation is unavoidable, and the focus is on avoiding causal relationships that directly impact stock performance [8] Group 4: Competitive Landscape in Specific Industries - In the high-end liquor industry, it is rare for three companies to possess strong competitive advantages simultaneously, as competition is often based on brand differentiation rather than market share [10][12] - High-end liquor companies maintain their competitive edge by controlling supply and pricing, which is crucial for preserving brand value [12][27] Group 5: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current low ticket prices in the aviation sector are attributed to aggressive competition and a decline in consumer purchasing power, which is expected to be a cyclical issue rather than a long-term trend [20][19] - The outlook for the high-end liquor market remains cautious, with expectations of potential declines in sales during peak seasons due to reduced consumer spending [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing, particularly in mutual funds, to facilitate easier entry into investment activities [2] - FOF (Fund of Funds) has a "double-layer structure," which is the primary reason for its net asset value (NAV) updates being slower. The calculation of FOF's NAV requires waiting for all underlying fund NAV disclosures to be completed before it can be calculated [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies and the need for fund managers to maintain trust with their investors through conservative investment practices and effective communication [1][3][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Investor Experience - The fund's net asset value and investor returns show a slight difference, indicating that investors likely have a positive experience [1]. - As of July 31, the first public fund of Zhongtai Asset Management has approximately 750,000 current investors with an average holding period of 782 days, suggesting a commitment to long-term investment [1]. - The average holding period for former investors is 308 days, which may exceed the industry average, highlighting the importance of reducing trading frequency for better long-term returns [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The company adopts a conservative investment approach, valuing stability and long-term viability over high-risk, high-reward strategies [3][4]. - The definition of a good company includes longevity and the ability to withstand market fluctuations, rather than solely focusing on growth potential [3]. - The article compares investment decisions to choosing a life partner, emphasizing the importance of enduring qualities over fleeting excitement [3]. Group 3: Communication and Trust - The company prioritizes transparent communication to combat information asymmetry in the asset management industry, ensuring that investors understand the risks and characteristics of the products [6]. - Honest communication is deemed essential, allowing potential investors to make informed decisions based on their preferences and risk tolerance [6]. - The company acknowledges the support of long-term investors, emphasizing the emotional connection and trust built over time [6]. Group 4: Investment Mindset - The article reflects on the nature of time and investment, suggesting that a slower, more deliberate approach may yield better long-term results [7]. - The company aspires to manage funds that are not only profitable but also sustainable over time, fostering a community of like-minded investors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the importance of relationships and the emotional aspects of farewells, emphasizing that even in old age, individuals can find joy and hope in reconnecting with friends, which serves as a metaphor for the investment journey and the relationships between fund managers and investors [1][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Performance - The company has successfully managed all products over the past decade, consistently outperforming the CSI 300 index, indicating that clients who remained invested have seen positive returns [3]. - The performance of products is positively correlated with the duration of investment, suggesting that longer holding periods lead to greater profitability [3]. Client Relationships - There is a concern regarding clients who purchased products at market peaks and have not seen returns for an extended period, highlighting the need for better communication and support for these clients [4]. - The company emphasizes the importance of treating long-term clients with respect and providing them with quality service, as they are crucial for sustainable business relationships [5]. Product Management - Products are described as having "life," meaning they should evolve alongside investors, sharing both successes and challenges, which is essential for building lasting relationships [7]. - The distinction between correct decision-making and favorable outcomes is stressed, advocating for a focus on sound investment strategies rather than short-term results [8]. Communication Strategy - The company suggests that communication should be more frequent during downturns and less during upswings to avoid misleading clients, reinforcing the need for transparency [8]. - It is important to learn from both profitable and unprofitable experiences to enhance understanding and resilience in investment practices [8]. Personal Reflections - The article concludes with gratitude for past experiences and relationships built over the years, expressing a desire for future interactions to be genuine and meaningful, akin to the reflections on farewells and reunions [9].

Core Viewpoints - Investors are currently experiencing a mixed sentiment, fearing both stagnant and rapidly rising markets, indicating a desire for better market rhythm control [2] - The reports suggest that different market conditions require different indicators for tracking market trends, with a focus on turnover rate and securitization rate as key metrics [4][5] Group 1: Market Indicators - The turnover rate (total trading volume / total market capitalization) is highlighted as a stable indicator for gauging bull market rhythms, with historical peaks around 10% [2] - High turnover rates often precede market corrections or consolidations, and recent data shows that the 5-day average turnover rate is approaching previous high points, suggesting potential increased volatility [2] Group 2: Securitization Rate - The securitization rate (total market capitalization / GDP) is proposed as a useful tool for identifying valuation peaks in bull markets, particularly when liquidity and valuation expansion drive market movements [4] - Historical data indicates that significant bull markets are often characterized by rising securitization rates, with current rates in China at 0.83, suggesting room for growth before reaching critical valuation thresholds [4] Group 3: Ten Observational Indicators - A set of ten indicators is recommended for market observation, including market capitalization to GDP ratio, trading volume and turnover rate, and margin financing scale [5] - Among these, the market capitalization to GDP ratio and market capitalization to household deposits ratio are seen as having potential for upward movement, while trading volume and turnover rate also show upward potential but with high congestion levels [5]