除了长期业绩稳健外，与投资者的高频互动也是姜诚与其所管产品备受认可的一个原因。他笔耕不辍，不 仅在公司官微贡献了几十篇投资笔记，多年来还坚持每季度至少参与一次直播，为投资者答疑解惑。此 外，自2021年入驻雪球后，他的"就叫姜诚"个人号已发布了近1700多条帖子，众多投资金句广为流传。 姜诚将此归纳为"保持勤勉"。在他看来，基金经理或许可以无惧规模和净值的波动，画出一条漂亮的长期 净值曲线，但持有人却会因为频繁的出局和入局，产生实际的收益损失。作为基金经理，需要用坦诚的沟 通打破双方的信息不对称，通过"陪伴"让"信任"尽可能持久。 价值之诺，同享丰盈。如果说"基金赚钱"和"基民共享收益"是一场双向奔赴，我们期待未来能和更多投资 路上的好朋友一起体验丰收的喜悦。 12月30日，由中国证券报主办的"改革与重构——2025公募基金高质量发展大会暨第22届基金业金牛奖颁 奖典礼"在上海举行。论坛上，第22届基金业金牛奖评选结果正式揭晓。凭借长期优秀的业绩表现，由姜 诚担任基金经理的中泰玉衡价值优选混合基金在本次评选中获评"五年期开放式混合型持续优胜金牛基 金"，这也是该产品在2023年获评"三年期开放式混合型持续优胜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing sophistication of scams in the investment sector, particularly those utilizing AI technology to create fake personas and fraudulent applications, urging vigilance among investors [2]. Group 1: Types of Scams - Scam 1: Impersonation of Company Employees - Fraudsters are using real names and photos of actual employees to create fake accounts on social media, offering free stock recommendations. This method is facilitated by publicly available information about employees [4][5]. - Scam 2: Counterfeit Apps Promising Loss Compensation - Fraudulent apps are emerging that promise to compensate users for losses. These apps often look convincing but are not available on official app stores, requiring users to download them via links provided by scammers [8][10]. Group 2: Warning Signs and Prevention Tips - Warning Sign 1: Personal WeChat Accounts for Stock Recommendations - If someone claiming to be an employee of a reputable firm uses a personal WeChat account to offer stock recommendations, it is likely a scam [10][12]. - Warning Sign 2: Downloading Apps from Unofficial Links - Users should only download the official app from recognized platforms and avoid links sent by individuals claiming to represent the company [12]. - Warning Sign 3: No Group Recommendations or Confidential Information - Company employees do not provide stock recommendations in group settings or share confidential information, and they will never ask for account passwords or money transfers [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of personal pension accounts as a supplementary retirement savings option, highlighting the tax benefits and investment opportunities they provide for individuals planning for retirement [3][5]. Group 1: Understanding Personal Pensions - The personal pension system is designed to allow individuals to prepare additional retirement savings beyond the basic social security, which ensures a minimum living standard [5]. - The personal pension offers four key features: individual accounts, self-directed investment options, deferred taxation, and closed operation until retirement age [6]. Group 2: Tax Savings from Personal Pensions - Contributions to personal pension accounts can be deducted from taxable income, effectively acting as a "tax refund" [10]. - The amount of tax saved depends on the individual's tax bracket, with higher tax rates yielding more significant savings [12]. - For example, individuals with an annual taxable income exceeding 960,000 yuan can save up to 5,400 yuan annually [11]. Group 3: Investment Options and Benefits - Personal pension funds can be invested in various products, including savings deposits, insurance products, wealth management products, and public funds [15]. - The article notes that as of December 15, 2025, there are 1,256 personal pension products available, with different risk-return profiles suitable for various investors [15]. - Public funds within personal pension accounts have shown promising returns, with over 98% of funds reporting positive returns since inception [18]. Group 4: Participation Process - The process to participate in personal pensions involves three steps: account opening, fund transfer, and investment [20]. - Individuals can choose how much to contribute each year, but they can only open one account across different banks, which may offer different investment products [22].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market risk preference is showing a mild recovery, with the risk scoring system indicating a slight improvement in the stock market, while the bond market remains cautious due to weak economic data and credit risk concerns in the real estate sector [2][5]. Market Risk Assessment - The risk score for the CSI 300 index is 54.89, up from 52.77 last month, indicating a moderate recovery in market risk preference [2]. - The valuation of the CSI 300 has slightly increased to 61.54 from 60.68, remaining in a mid-high range over the past six months, with significant valuation differentiation across sectors [2]. - The market expectation score has decreased to 50.00 from 52.00, reflecting resilient external demand but a notable slowdown in internal demand [2]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved to 50.69 from 45.24, moving from a "depressed" to a "neutral" range, although sentiment indicators show significant differentiation [3]. - Margin financing scores have surged from historical lows to highs, indicating a recovery in sentiment, while public fund issuance remains stable at high levels [3]. Economic Indicators - Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7%, the highest increase since March 2024, while core CPI increased by 1.2% [9]. - Industrial production value increased by 4.8%, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [9]. - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but excluding real estate development, it shows a growth of 0.8% [9]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The social financing scale increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with broad money (M2) growing by 8.0%, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [11]. - The central bank has maintained a stable monetary policy, with the ten-year government bond yield around 1.85% and the thirty-year bond around 2.25%, reflecting a bear steepening trend in the bond market [11][12]. Investment Focus - In a structured market, sectors with high valuation and strong earnings certainty are emphasized, while those with high valuations but weak fundamentals are viewed with caution [3]. - The focus is on quality targets within a manageable risk range, prioritizing earnings realization and cash flow stability [3].

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that a solid understanding of investment fundamentals is crucial for success [2] - The article introduces the "three bowls of noodles" concept in the bond market, which refers to three core factors influencing the bond market: fundamental, policy, and liquidity aspects [3] - The fundamental aspect focuses on economic conditions such as GDP growth and inflation levels, indicating that a robust economy with rising inflation tends to lead to higher interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for achieving a reasonable recovery in prices, emphasizing that this has become a significant policy goal in China since the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Economic Context - The current cycle of price stagnation began in 2012, with China's Producer Price Index (PPI) entering negative territory since 2022, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained between 0-1% [2]. - From May 2012, China's PPI diverged from that of Europe and the US, entering negative territory for 4 years and 5 months until October 2016, primarily due to structural distortions in the economy and a significant increase in manufacturing output [2][5]. - The increase in China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of global output rose from 8.6% in 2004 to 22.3% in 2012, while the population's share of global numbers declined, indicating an oversupply of goods amid a shrinking consumer base [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Structural Reforms - To address the prolonged negative PPI, supply-side structural reforms were initiated in 2015, focusing on reducing excess capacity in key sectors like steel and coal, driven by the need to balance supply and demand [5]. - The period from 2016 to 2017 saw the most significant push for these reforms, with a focus on deleveraging and reducing inventory and production capacity [5]. Group 3: Recent Economic Developments - After a brief recovery in PPI starting in October 2016, external factors such as the US-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic led to renewed declines in PPI, with the index entering negative territory again from late 2019 to the end of 2020 [9]. - The article notes that from 2012 to 2025, China experienced approximately 8.5 years of negative PPI, with persistent overcapacity being a fundamental issue [9]. Group 4: Challenges in Price Recovery - The current downturn in PPI since October 2022 is characterized by a shift from expansion to contraction in household balance sheets, coinciding with a downturn in the real estate market, which has compounded the issues of overcapacity and insufficient effective demand [14]. - The article highlights that the decline in production of certain goods, such as liquor, reflects broader demographic trends and consumption downgrades, complicating the path to price recovery [14][15]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the need to expand domestic demand, particularly through consumption, to facilitate price recovery [22]. - The article argues that increasing consumer demand is essential for price recovery, suggesting that measures should focus on enhancing employment and income levels, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [32][33]. - It is noted that the structural issues in income distribution and the ongoing real estate downturn present significant challenges to achieving a reasonable price recovery [48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in contrast to the recovery of US and A-shares, with a notable decrease in average daily trading volume since September [1] - The report from China Merchants Securities International attributes the decline to changes in the funding situation, including the "crowding out effect" of southbound funds, which has led to a withdrawal of capital from Hong Kong back to A-shares [1] - As of the third quarter of 2025, the scale of actively managed equity public funds was 3.59 trillion yuan, with a benchmark for Hong Kong stock holdings at 356 billion yuan, while actual holdings were 594 billion yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate a slowdown in southbound fund inflows, with the 10-day moving average dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to less than 1 billion HKD since late November 2025, with some periods even showing net outflows [3] - The number of IPOs in Hong Kong is expected to rise significantly in 2026, with 99 companies having raised over 250 billion HKD as of December 12, 2025, compared to 50 companies raising nearly 90 billion HKD in 2024 [3] - The anticipated IPO financing scale for 2026 is projected to be around 330 billion HKD, with 314 listing applications already in process as of December 12, 2025 [3] Group 3 - External liquidity disturbances are considered a major factor affecting the performance of Hong Kong stocks, with the report from GF Securities highlighting that Hong Kong stocks are influenced by both domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [5] - The consensus earnings growth forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 has been revised down to -8.49%, indicating a negative outlook for profitability [5] - The recent market fluctuations may reflect that these conditions have already been priced in, suggesting that the current situation may not be as concerning as it appears [5]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of solid foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds to enhance investment success [2] - It clarifies that dividends from stocks held by funds and dividends from the funds themselves are not the same, indicating that one should not equate the two [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for 2026 emphasizes "diversification" and "complexity," highlighting the impact of global central bank policies, new trade orders, and fiscal risks on the investment environment [2] Group 1: Asset Rebalancing - Asset rebalancing involves adjusting the proportions of various asset classes in an investment portfolio to maintain the original risk-return profile, rather than solely aiming to increase returns [5] - The process is likened to pruning a garden, where regular adjustments help maintain optimal conditions for growth [5] Group 2: Scenario Planning - Preparing contingency plans is deemed more practical than making precise predictions in an uncertain investment landscape, allowing for rational decision-making during crises [7] - The approach encourages investors to envision various adverse scenarios and develop strategies to address them, enhancing control over investments [8] Group 3: Diversified Allocation - The concept of "diversified allocation" is expanded to include "independent streams of return," which can significantly reduce risk while maintaining expected returns [11] - It is suggested that assets should be categorized based on their price volatility correlations rather than just their categories, to ensure low correlation among different return streams [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in high-end liquor prices is attributed to cyclical demand fluctuations rather than a narrowing of the industry's competitive moat [2][3]. Inventory and Demand - There has been a mismatch between reported demand and actual market demand for high-end liquor in recent years, leading to increased inventory levels among distributors [3]. - The average inventory turnover days for liquor reportedly reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, but the accuracy of this figure is questioned due to seasonal sales variations [4][5]. - The calculation of inventory turnover days can vary significantly based on the data used, and short-term metrics may not accurately reflect the true inventory situation [5][8]. Production Capacity - Production capacity is considered less critical in the analysis of high-end liquor, as the manufacturing process varies significantly among different types of liquor [6]. - For example, certain types of liquor require long aging periods, which means that current production levels can be estimated based on historical inventory [6]. Market Dynamics - The high-end liquor market is influenced by economic activity, with demand for business dining being a key driver [12]. - The distinction between "face consumption" (business dining) and "practical consumption" (self-drinking) is important, as the former is less likely to be affected by economic downturns [11][12]. Inventory Cycle and Brand Value - The impact of inventory cycles on long-term brand value is minimal, but excessive inventory can lead to price erosion, which may harm brand perception [12][13]. - The management of inventory levels is crucial to maintaining the perceived scarcity and value of high-end liquor [13][15]. Consumer Preferences - Regional preferences exist in the mid-range liquor market, but high-end liquor has become more standardized across regions, reducing the impact of local tastes [10]. - The consumption patterns in high-end liquor are more stable, with a focus on social contexts that reinforce brand loyalty and recognition [11]. Investment Considerations - The relationship between inventory levels and stock prices is not straightforward, as effective management of inventory can lead to positive stock performance despite market pressures [18]. - The long-term investment outlook for high-end liquor remains positive due to its strong competitive moat and pricing power [18].