Workflow
中泰证券资管
icon
Search documents
基本功 | 基金的换手率高好还是低好?
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-03 09:53
基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 基金的换手率高好 还是低好? 该指标反映组合持仓股 票的交易频率,本身并无 好坏之分。 换手率低,一般说明基金经理偏好长期持股。换 手率较高,说明基金经理 偏好较为频繁的个股交 易或行业轮动。若发生大额申赎,也会让换手率被 动提高。计算单边换手率率用公式: 持有人首次认证有礼啦!只要在4月30日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友,长按识别下方 二维码前往认证,即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份 本材料不构成投资建议,观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不 保证基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资有风险,基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则,请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险,投资须谨慎。 扫码进入基本功专栏 ...
读研报 | 6月启幕,市场正从哪里找方向?
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-03 09:53
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the search for investment direction amid market volatility and performance uncertainty as June begins [2] - Calendar effects are highlighted as a strategy for identifying opportunities in June, with reports indicating that technology growth sectors tend to outperform during this period [2][6] - Reports from Northeast Securities show that growth stocks have historically outperformed value stocks, with TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sectors leading in both win rates and returns over the past 20 years [2][6] Group 2 - Some reports focus on "cost-effectiveness" to find opportunities, with East Wu Securities noting that the technology growth sector has become more attractive after adjustments in May [3] - The trading structure as of May 29 indicates that TMT's trading volume has decreased to 27.3%, suggesting a rebound in the cost-effectiveness of the technology growth sector [3] - Huatai Securities recommends dividend-paying assets, citing strong signals from high dividend trends and the current market's risk-averse sentiment [4] Group 3 - Reports also address potential risks, with Tianfeng Securities warning about the high concentration of small-cap stocks, which could lead to increased volatility and risk in the market [6] - The report from China Merchants Securities highlights the challenges facing small-cap stocks as the market approaches the half-year reporting period, suggesting a shift towards larger, quality stocks [6] - The overall market sentiment indicates a lack of clear direction, with various strategies suggesting different approaches to investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The article notes that industry rotation is a common occurrence in May and June, with expectations for a new structural mainline to emerge as June progresses [7]
同类排名2/179,这位高手这样做资产配置
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-30 05:18
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Zhongtai Tianze Stable 6-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF), which has achieved a net value growth rate of 7.40% since its establishment on March 21, 2023, outperforming its benchmark by 3.21% [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The fund manager, Tang Jun, emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over merely selecting outstanding fund managers, focusing on forming allocation views first and then selecting the best funds to implement those views [2] - Tang Jun utilizes a macro analysis framework for risk budgeting, similar to Bridgewater's risk parity model, but with a personalized approach that allows for differentiated risk allocation based on his views [3][5] - The strategic asset allocation is based on a "monetary-credit" analysis framework, which influences long-term configuration, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities based on market sentiment and funding conditions [5][9] Group 2: Return Streams and Risk Assessment - The concept of "return streams" is highlighted, where having 15-20 independent return streams can significantly reduce risk without compromising expected returns [6] - The manager assesses the correlation of asset classes with existing portfolios for risk evaluation, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of asset classes [6] - The selection of funds involves a rigorous style decomposition process to evaluate the fund's alpha performance after removing style beta influences [7] Group 3: Gold and Market Outlook - Gold is maintained as a strategic core holding due to its recognition as a global currency amidst concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [8] - The article outlines potential strategies based on macroeconomic drivers, such as domestic credit expansion and overseas dollar liquidity, which will influence future asset allocation decisions [9] - The performance of US tech stocks, particularly in relation to AI technology trends, is identified as a key factor for future market movements [9]
中泰资管天团 | 田宏伟:如何提高投资者体验——以养老FOF管理为例
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-29 07:59
Core Viewpoint - Enhancing investor experience in fund investments is a core task for fund investors and managers, increasingly emphasized by regulators [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Performance - Focusing solely on performance results is insufficient; absolute returns significantly impact investor experience, while relative returns are less critical in a positive return environment [4] - Historical performance can obscure the volatility experienced during the investment period, making the timing of investment crucial for the overall experience [4] Risk Assessment - Various risk indicators exist, such as volatility and maximum drawdown, which reflect the fluctuations in net value; different investors perceive risk differently [7] - For investors focused on retirement products, evaluating funds based on cost-effectiveness from a risk-return perspective is recommended [7] Dimensions Affecting Investor Experience - The overall investor experience, particularly for conservative investors, should encompass several dimensions, including: - **Return Dimension**: Performance over different time frames (1 year, 2 years, etc.) - **Risk Dimension**: Volatility, correlation with the market (Beta), maximum drawdown, recovery time from maximum drawdown, daily positive return rate - **Risk-Adjusted Return Dimension**: Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, information ratio - **Fund Manager Capability Dimension**: Strategic allocation, industry allocation, timing ability, security selection ability - **Manager Investment Service Dimension**: Responsiveness, coverage, satisfaction, companionship [9][10] Case Study: Focus on Investor Experience in Retirement FOF - The "Zhongtai Furu Stable Retirement One-Year Holding FOF" was analyzed to illustrate how a retirement-targeted FOF can prioritize investor experience while achieving investment results [12] - As of April 30, 2025, the fund's net value growth rate was 5.08%, outperforming its benchmark growth rate of 4.80% and the Wande Bond Mixed FOF Index return of 4.36% [13] - The fund's daily positive return probability was 64.04%, significantly higher than the average of 51.92% for similar products, enhancing investor experience [13][14] - The fund's maximum drawdown was -1.96%, compared to -2.91% for the Wande Bond Mixed FOF Index, indicating better risk management [13][14] - The Calmar ratio for the fund was 2.49, higher than the Wande Bond Mixed FOF Index's 1.36 and the CSI 300's 0.40, demonstrating superior returns per unit of drawdown risk [14]
基本功 | 为啥经济下行,债券更有吸引力?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-29 07:59
扫码进入基本功专栏 持有人首次认证有礼啦!只要在4月30日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友,长按识别下方 二维码前往认证,即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份 本材料不构成投资建议,观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不 保证基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资有风险,基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则,请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险,投资须谨慎。 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 为啥经济下行 债券更有吸引力? 与政策预期、资金面、避险 需求等多重因素有关。 市场普遍认为,当经济处于下行/衰退阶段,经济 表现疲软,为提振消费刺激经济,市场倾向于央 行会采取 降息、降准等宽松货币政策,市场利率下 降. 降低债券的融资成本,推动债券需求上升,讲 ...
不漫灌鸡汤,用“知识共情”定义投资者陪伴
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-28 09:01
一年前,小编和一位非金融从业人员的老同学(也是资深基民)有过一次面对面的长谈。期间老同学的一 个问题,让我至今记忆犹新。 她说,基金公司都说要做投资者陪伴,可什么是陪伴,总不会就是跌了继续定投的漫灌鸡汤吧? 如果说信任是基金投资的基石,那么垒就基石的过程应该是彼此认可的互动,而不是单方面自以为是的输 出。唯有走近彼此的认知与情绪,知识的传递才会有情感的根基,陪伴才会真正走心。让知识共情,这就 是"有料三分钟"这档投资者陪伴视频的努力方向。 定位知识性的内容,首先要得有干货。 《有料三分钟》首先是一档聚焦在投资基本概念和名词解释的视频栏目,很多概念我们耳熟能详,但概念 究竟代表的是什么,其变化对我们投资生活的影响几何,都值得拆细了了解。 以美联储降息为例,经常听到、看到,但到底他们降的是什么息,为啥要降息,谁来决定降不降息,值得 抽丝剥茧。 又如,4月的关税冲击曾引起市场的轩然大波,但如果放在历史的纵轴中理解关税和贸易冲突的前世今 生,就不至于惊慌失措。 把概念拆细致只做事实陈述,不做观点解读,我们希望知识类的内容,能帮助大家了解概念和术语,至少 在投资路上少一些误会,多一些理解。 能共 情的内容,还得有烟火气 ...
基本功 | 买基金担心波动太大咋办?搞懂最大回撤!
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-27 09:36
扫码进入基本功专栏 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 基金的最大回撤数据 怎么算? 最大回撤,即一定时期内 基金发生的最大跌幅。 计算最大回撤,首先要在选定时间范围内,找到 基金净值的 最高点 (峰值),并记录出现的时点, 随后在峰值后找到净值最低点(谷底)。若存在 多个峰值,需分别计算每个峰值到谷底的跌幅, 持有人首次认证有礼啦!只要在4月30日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友,长按识别下方 二维码前往认证,即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份 本材料不构成投资建议,观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不 保证基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资有风险,基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则,请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险,投资须谨慎。 ...
读研报 | 国货潮玩出海,爆款之外的人货场之变
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-27 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The rise of domestic潮玩 (trendy toys) in international markets is not a coincidence, but rather a significant transformation in the toy industry, driven by changes in consumer demographics and product offerings [2][5]. Group 1: Consumer Demographics - The consumer base for toys is shifting from primarily children to older age groups, particularly in overseas markets, with adult and teenage consumers increasingly contributing to sales [2][5]. - In the U.S. toy market, consumers aged 12 and above account for approximately 25% of sales, contributing over $9 billion, and have driven 60% of market growth from 2021 to 2022 [2]. - In 2023, adult toy sales in the U.S. increased by 8%, representing 7.3% of the total toy market, while in five EU countries, the same demographic saw a 2.5% increase in toy spending, making up 28.5% of the market [2]. Group 2: Product Evolution - The definition of "goods" in the toy industry is evolving, with潮玩 targeting consumers aged 15 to 40 who seek emotional value and personal expression through collectibles [5]. - Traditional toy brands are facing market share pressure, while collectible brands like LEGO are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards adult-oriented collectible toys [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The blind box segment is experiencing significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.2% in China's market from 2019 to 2023, outpacing overall toy market growth [7]. - The rise of social media has transformed the marketing landscape for toys, with a shift from traditional media to platforms that promote interactive and visually appealing products [7]. - The average daily usage of social media globally increased from 90 minutes to 143 minutes between 2012 and 2024, facilitating the emergence of new toy brands that leverage original IP and social media engagement [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The global toy market is relatively fragmented, with the top five players holding only 26.5% of the market share, allowing for opportunities for new brands to establish differentiated positions [8]. - Chinese潮玩 brands are positioned at a lower price point compared to U.S. counterparts, focusing on unique IP and catering to niche markets, including female-oriented潮玩 [8]. Group 5: Market Volatility - While the potential for domestic潮玩 to succeed internationally is promising, the market remains volatile, as evidenced by the fluctuating popularity of certain IPs like Disney's Lina Bell, which saw a rapid rise and subsequent decline in interest [9].
金融破段子 | 存款利率进入“0字头”时代,“只求微赚”也有功课要做!
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-26 10:35
就在上周,多家国有大行及部分股份行进行了新一轮的存款利率下调。调整之后的国有六大行的定期存款 整存整取一年期利率在0.95%—0.98%。 更扎心的是,结合多份研报的结论,在全球经济下行的压力下,存款利率可能还有进一步下调的空间。 要知道,2014年时余额宝七日年化收益跌破5%还是彼时备受媒体关注的新闻(注1);但现如今,存款利 率进入"0字头"的时代已经到来! 如何在低利率时代,相对稳健地多赚一点,是当下许多投资者重要的诉求,不少人因此将目光投向了债 基。小红书联合蚂蚁财富平台发布的《2024年轻人十大理财趋势盘点》显示,"收蛋了吗"是2024年上半年 年轻人在理财社区常见的问候语(债基每上涨0.01%就相当于收了一个"蛋")。这届只求微赚的年轻人, 平均一年的债基加仓次数高达10次。 事实上,同样叫债券基金,同样被认为是稳健类基金产品,不同债券基金之间也存在差异。 如何结合产 品特点,选择更适合自己的产品,是每一位债券投资者需要事前完成的工作。 本期内容,我们梳理"中泰资管固收家族"成员之间的差别,结合相应场景,希望帮助大家降低投资决策难 度。话不多说,一起来看看都有哪些产品。 多触手, 捕捉不同资产投资 ...
一条读懂基金经理之田瑀篇
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-23 05:55
Core Viewpoint - Value investment is understood as buying listed companies from the perspective of acquiring the business, focusing on the company's intrinsic value rather than market sentiment [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The key factors in the investment framework are the difference between enterprise value and market price, which implies a long-term return rate [2] - The quality of the enterprise, referred to as "moat," is crucial in determining enterprise value [2] - The purchase price must be appropriate, ensuring that the implied return rate exceeds the required threshold [2] Group 2: Assessing Moat - A company's moat is established based on its specific business model, creating sustainable differences from competitors [3] - Cost advantages, such as economies of scale or production efficiency, are often the basis for a company's moat [3] - Evaluating a company's moat involves projecting its competitive advantages over a long-term horizon [3] Group 3: Monitoring Moat Changes - Changes in a company's moat can occur due to various factors, including procurement, production efficiency, and market conditions [4][5] - Tracking moat changes is a continuous process, not solely based on stock price fluctuations [6] - Observing industry events and regulatory changes can also impact the assessment of a company's moat [6] Group 4: Valuation and Pricing - A good purchase price is defined as one that offers value for money, where the implied return rate is high [8] - The assessment of enterprise value is inherently a range due to the variability in core assumptions [9] - When stock prices decline, if the enterprise value remains unchanged, it indicates a higher implied return rate, prompting further purchases [10] Group 5: Selling Logic - The selling strategy includes three scenarios: when the price rises and the implied return no longer meets expectations, when the assessment of enterprise value changes negatively, or when a better investment opportunity arises [13] Group 6: Expanding Capability Circle - Expanding the capability circle involves exploring unfamiliar businesses that may present interesting opportunities [14] - Researching companies that have been listed for a few years can provide comprehensive data for analysis [14] - Engaging with stocks recommended by internal and external analysts can also aid in expanding the capability circle [14] Group 7: Market Trends and Research Depth - Interest in sectors like smart driving, new energy vehicles, AI, and semiconductors is noted due to their potential impact on the economy and business operations [15] - A thorough understanding of new sectors should be prioritized over merely following market trends [15] Group 8: Communication with Stakeholders - The focus is on the quality of enterprises and the belief that prices will eventually align with value, although the timing of this alignment is uncertain [16]