投资中的胜率和赔率 究竟是指什么? 简单说, 胜率是赚钱的概率, 而赔率是盈亏比。 胜率,是在一段时间内投资获胜(盈利)的概率。比 如,小明买了10只基金,有7只赚钱,3只亏损,那么 扫码进入基本功专栏 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 中泰证券资产管理 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 ...

最近在雪球上读到一组数据，觉得很有意思。一位名叫"Alex价值发现者"的用户对最近的一轮牛市期间万 得全A指数回撤≥5%的情况做了一次统计，结果如下： | # | 开始日期 | 结束日期 | 回撤 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 2019-04-19 | 2019-06-06 | -15.1% | | 2 | 2019-07-02 | 2019-08-06 | -7.8% | | 3 | 2020-01-14 | 2020-02-04 | -16.4% | | 4 | 2020-03-05 | 2020-03-23 | -14.6% | | 5 | 2020-07-13 | 2020-07-27 | -7.3% | | 6 | 2020-09-02 | 2020-09-11 | -5.8% | | 7 | 2021-01-25 | 2021-02-04 | -5.2% | | 8 | 2021-02-18 | 2021-03-09 | -10.7% | | 0 | 2021-06-02 | 2021-06-18 | -5.1% | | | 10 2021-09-10 | 2 ...

"价投不是教科书，逆风才是试金石"，这是近期中泰资管基金经理田瑀做客播客节目"面基"的内容标题。 "面基"是2024年度小宇宙播客大赏的"创作者喜爱播客"，上述内容自上周发布至今，光"小宇宙"APP，就 有近5万的收听量。 从后台数据看，这档113分钟的访谈，完播率超过了50%。 要知道，在这个什么都要比快的社会，2小时可不是一块时间碎片。 我们和一部分听友聊了聊，大家说，从这期节目中，听到了 价值投资者的特质 。 价值投资者是 诚实 的。 主播：在A股做价值投资，有啥困难的不？ 田瑀：只要你别全要，也没啥难的。 只有对自己诚实，才能清晰努力的方向。 价值投资者还是 理性 的。 主播：我后悔了，市场不是没给过卖的机会。 田瑀：啥叫卖的机会？你要定义你什么时候卖股票，要事先就有。不能说事后它跌了、我错过了卖 的机会。如果你没有卖的标准，那就谈不上错过机会。 事先确定应对原则，坚决执行，就不会陷在事后无用的情绪回味中。 价值投资者也是 坦率 的。 主播：你有的标的都持有20个季度，非要扛着吗？ 田瑀：站在任何一个时间点，如果知道未来20个季度都不涨，那我肯定不等，如果知道是买在左 侧，我肯定不买，等等不好吗？但是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the bond market is attributed to increased inflation expectations and a rising risk appetite among investors, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of bonds [4] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has experienced increased fluctuations due to frequent "anti-involution" policies and a notable rise in commodity prices, which have heightened inflation expectations [4] - The stock market's enthusiasm has led to a significant recovery in risk appetite, causing investors to favor riskier assets over bonds [4] - Despite the current volatility, the long-term outlook for the bond market remains positive, supported by a need for low market interest rates and a relatively loose liquidity environment [4] Group 2: Bond Types and Volatility - Bonds with longer durations tend to exhibit the highest volatility, followed by medium to long-term credit bonds, while short-duration credit bonds and money market products show the least volatility [5][6] - For investors seeking stability and lower volatility, short-term credit bond funds or money market products are recommended [6] Group 3: Bonds in a Bull Market - Even in a bull market, bonds retain their value due to the cash flow generated from interest payments, which can provide stable returns despite price fluctuations [7] - Bonds play a crucial role in asset allocation, serving as a stabilizing force in an investment portfolio, especially for conservative investors [7] - The presence of bonds in a diversified investment strategy is essential, as they continue to fulfill their function regardless of market conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and trends in Fund of Funds (FOF) investment, emphasizing the importance of multi-asset and multi-strategy configurations in portfolio construction, as well as the significance of fund selection and investment objectives in achieving stable returns [2][10]. Group 1: Portfolio Construction - The importance of asset allocation is well-known, with classic investment theory suggesting that 90% of fund performance comes from asset allocation. However, many domestic investors initially understood asset allocation as merely the proportion of equities, bonds, and cash, which requires high foresight and predictability [4]. - The diversification of investment tools has allowed for a more mature multi-asset allocation environment in China since 2022, with an increasing number of tools available for FOF investment, including QDII funds and commodity funds [4][5]. - A key aspect of multi-asset allocation is to maintain low correlation between different asset classes, ideally negative correlation, to enhance net value stability. However, investors should be cautious of sudden high correlations during extreme market conditions [7]. - A new direction in asset allocation is multi-strategy configuration, which has been effectively applied in quantitative private equity. This approach combines various effective strategies to achieve more stable excess returns [7][8]. Group 2: Fund Selection - The two main pillars of FOF investment are asset allocation and fund selection. Despite the increasing importance of asset allocation, the significance of fund selection remains high. The ability to select funds is fundamentally about acquiring the alpha capability of fund managers [11]. - The alpha capability of excellent fund managers has shown a trend of recovery since 2025, with active management of public equity funds significantly outperforming mainstream market indices [11][12]. - When assessing a fund manager's alpha capability, it is crucial to separate industry beta and thematic beta, as these represent structural risks rather than true alpha [12]. Group 3: Investment Objectives - Common investment objectives for public funds include pursuing absolute returns, outperforming benchmarks, and leading in peer rankings. Each of these objectives holds different importance for investors, managers, and peer institutions [15]. - Absolute return is considered the ultimate goal for any investment product, especially after recent market fluctuations. Regulatory bodies have begun to suggest that average absolute returns should be a key performance indicator for fund managers [16]. - Outperforming benchmarks is essential for establishing trust with investors and is a core competency for fund companies. Recent market changes have highlighted the need for funds to consistently exceed benchmarks to ensure healthy industry development [17][18]. - Leading in rankings should not be an explicit goal, as it can lead to herd behavior among fund managers. Instead, focusing on absolute returns and benchmark outperformance will naturally result in favorable rankings over time [19].

本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 扫码进入基本功专栏 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 如何从李报中 着憧憬基的底层持仓? 季报会披露债基的债券投资明 细, 看懂其底层持仓, 也很重要。 怎么从债券简称中分析其性质?简单拆解,一般 债券简称由三部分组成:发行年份+债券类型+ 期数。具体来看: 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the root causes of "involution" in the context of declining investment returns and risk appetite in the capital market, suggesting that addressing these issues is crucial for effective "anti-involution" measures [2]. Group 1: Investment Returns and Involution - The return on investment for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has been declining, with profit margins decreasing from 5.35% in 2021 to 4.25% in the first five months of 2024 [5][11]. - The revenue generated per 100 yuan of assets for these enterprises has also dropped from 107 yuan in 2022 to 85.2 yuan in the first five months of 2024 [5][11]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is characterized by intensified competition among enterprises, leading to price wars that result in increased volume but reduced profits [11][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The persistent "supply exceeds demand" situation is attributed to previous investment expansions, with manufacturing investment growth outpacing overall investment growth from 2021 to 2024 [21][27]. - The average accounts receivable period for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has lengthened from 54 days in 2022 to 71.7 days in the first five months of 2024, indicating increased financial pressure [16][30]. - The capacity utilization rate for these enterprises has decreased from 75.8% in 2022 to 74.2% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a growing surplus in production capacity [19][27]. Group 3: Government Policies and Economic Structure - Local governments are incentivized to boost manufacturing investment to meet GDP targets, often leading to distorted market resource allocation through aggressive investment policies [28][30]. - Recent policies have increased financial support for manufacturing, with long-term loans to the sector growing significantly, providing substantial funding for investment expansions [30][32]. - The article highlights the need for a balanced approach to address both supply-side issues and consumer demand, suggesting that effective "anti-involution" strategies should focus on increasing household income and promoting consumption [72].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent changes in public fund holdings as revealed in the Q2 2025 reports, highlighting significant trends in market differentiation and sector allocations [2] Group 1: High and Low Phenomena - Active equity funds have reached a record high allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of holdings in the Hong Kong Stock Connect reaching 19.91% in Q2 2025, up from 19.10% in Q1 2025 [3] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong saw a 6.01 percentage point increase in market value allocation, while the financial sector increased by 2.26 percentage points [3][4] Group 2: Low Allocation to Specific Sectors - Active funds have a notably low allocation to liquor stocks, with the proportion of holdings in the food and beverage sector at 6.8% in Q2 2025. Excluding liquor-themed funds, the allocation to liquor stocks dropped from 11.7% in Q1 2021 to 2% in Q2 2025 [5] - This decline mirrors a previous trend from 2012, where the allocation to liquor stocks fell from 18.9% to 2.5% due to regulatory and safety concerns [5] Group 3: Bank Stocks Allocation - The proportion of active equity funds holding bank stocks increased to 4.88% in Q2 2025, indicating a rise in both quantity and price. However, the under-allocation remains significant, being the largest among 31 sectors [7] - In contrast, fixed income plus funds showed a 6.3% overweight in the banking sector, highlighting a divergence in sector allocation strategies [7] Group 4: Valuation Trends - Public fund heavyweights are currently at historical low valuation levels, with median P/E ratios of 22.9x and 26.8x for the top 100 and top 400 stocks, respectively, compared to the overall A-share median P/E ratio of 0.55x and 0.64x [8] - This valuation trend indicates a significant shift from a premium to a discount relative to the broader market since early 2021 [8][9] Group 5: Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds continues to decline, with the proportion of heavyweights accounting for 55.52% of total equity assets, down 0.56 percentage points from the previous quarter [9] - The number of heavyweights held by funds increased to 2,694, reflecting a broader selection of stocks in response to market volatility [9][10]

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that a solid understanding of fund basics is essential for successful investment [2] - The holding period for funds is calculated from the confirmation date of the subscription to the day before the confirmation date of redemption, including weekends and holidays [3] - In special cases such as funds with specific holding period requirements, new fund subscriptions, or fund conversions, the calculation rules may differ and should be checked in the respective fund contract [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sentiment in the A-share market has entered an upward channel, with increased discussions among investors about participating in the market despite concerns about potential downturns [2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Emphasis on constructing a safety margin in investments, as highlighted by fund managers who have shared their insights on this topic [2] - The concept of "multi-scenario hypothesis" is introduced, which encourages investors to consider various potential outcomes and not rely solely on a single prediction [5][6] - Investors are advised to acknowledge their limitations and focus on existing facts rather than future predictions, preparing for different scenarios [5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Caution - The analogy of forest fire risk levels is used to illustrate the importance of being cautious when market sentiment becomes overly optimistic, suggesting that investors should be more prudent during such times [9] - The idea is to avoid fixating on the exact timing or causes of market changes, instead focusing on the overall risk level associated with market conditions [9] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a learning mindset and improve their understanding to better seize market opportunities [10]