Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perceived dichotomy between value investing and technology investing, particularly in the context of the AI era, and explores the reasons behind this stereotype [4][5]. Group 1: Value vs. Technology Investing - The stereotype that value investing and technology investing are oppositional stems from the low proportion of technology investments made by well-known value investors [5]. - Value investors often struggle to share their technology investment cases, reinforcing the stereotype [5]. - A key principle of value investing is that value must be assessable, which is challenging in the rapidly changing technology sector [5][6]. Group 2: Characteristics of Technology Companies - Not all technology companies are unprofitable at inception; some, like Nvidia, can be profitable from the start [6]. - The financial losses of some tech companies do not negate their long-term value, as profitability can be established once business models and payment capabilities are confirmed [6][9]. - Understanding the business model of technology companies often requires specialized knowledge, creating a barrier for value investors [7][13]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Industries - The demand for computing power driven by AI has significantly enhanced the value of the semiconductor foundry industry, which has a stable business model and clear competitive advantages [16][18]. - AI has transformed the storage industry by increasing the demand for storage capacity and bandwidth, leading to supply shortages and rising prices [19][20]. - The shift from traditional computing to AI-driven models has created bottlenecks in storage, as the new computing methods require more frequent data storage [19]. Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a slowdown in the pace of innovation, as evidenced by the observed deceleration of Moore's Law [25][28]. - Future advancements in semiconductor manufacturing may occur at a slower rate, with increased reliance on chip clusters to enhance computing power [29]. - The competitive landscape in semiconductor manufacturing is evolving, particularly in the context of national policies promoting self-sufficiency in technology [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - Asset allocation is a complex and multi-dimensional task, often referred to as "physical labor" due to the extensive research required to achieve effective configurations [1][2][27]. Group 1: Passive vs. Active Allocation - Passive allocation, which relies on diversification to reduce volatility, faces challenges in practice, particularly for domestic investors due to limited asset classes and the poor performance of key assets like A-shares [5][9][27]. - Active allocation aims to enhance returns beyond passive strategies by making informed predictions about expected returns, addressing the shortcomings of passive allocation [2][27]. Group 2: Issues with Passive Allocation - Determining expected returns using historical data can lead to "chasing performance," where investors favor assets that have recently performed well, skewing allocation models [5][9]. - The correlation between assets is not stable; for instance, the historical negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened since the 2008 financial crisis, impacting the effectiveness of diversification [6][9]. - The performance of passive allocation is heavily dependent on the underlying assets' returns and their correlations, which can be problematic in markets with limited asset classes [9][27]. Group 3: The Complexity of Active Allocation - Active allocation involves timing decisions, which many investors find challenging, leading to skepticism about its feasibility [17][19]. - While achieving a high accuracy rate in timing is difficult, even a modest success rate can significantly enhance investment returns when combined with sound risk management [18][19]. - The macroeconomic drivers influencing asset performance can change, necessitating continuous adjustments to research frameworks and strategies [21][27]. Group 4: Multi-Dimensional Decision Making - Effective asset allocation requires multiple low-correlation return streams to improve the probability of successful outcomes, as relying on a single asset is often insufficient [22][23]. - A structured decision-making framework that incorporates both strategic and tactical allocations can enhance the robustness of investment strategies [23][24]. - Strict risk budgeting is essential to ensure that asset allocations align with the overall risk tolerance of the portfolio, preventing forced liquidations during market fluctuations [24][25].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals are essential for successful investing [2] Group 2 - The article discusses why yield is commonly used instead of price for bonds, highlighting that yield provides a unified standard that price cannot offer, making it more comparable across different bonds [3]

10月29日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷在2025上市公司高质量发展论坛上发表主旨演讲时表示，中国制 造业的坚实基础与资本市场韧性已构筑起应对变局的"缓冲垫"。企业需通过加强并购重组、聚焦科技自立 自强来提升竞争力。同时，"十五五"期间以人工智能为代表的新质生产力以及养老、银发经济等民生领域 或将成为拉动内需、培育新增长点的关键引擎。 推动科技创新与产业创新深度融合 针对未来产业投资方向，李迅雷认为，"十五五"期间的首要亮点将体现在加快科技自立自强，推动科技创 新与产业创新深度融合，从而引领新质生产力发展。新质生产力可具体划分为四类：战略性新兴产业（如 信息技术、生物技术、新能源等）、未来产业（如人工智能、量子技术等）、数字经济（涵盖算力、工业 互联网等）以及传统产业的智能化转型。他表示，人工智能有望引领第四次工业革命，其影响深远程度将 远超以往的"互联网+"模式。 民生领域也是重点发展方向。李迅雷认为，未来五年政府在民生领域的投入将显著加大，银发经济、创新 药、养老产业等领域潜力巨大。同时，服务业（包括生产性服务业和消费性服务业）作为吸纳就业的重要 领域，发展速度有望加快。此外，以"反内卷"为导向的供给侧调 ...

基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 什么是 基金的风格漂移? 简单说就是, 基金的实际操 作背离了它合同约定的投 资目标和策略。 好比你找了家 III荣馆,结果点单才发现菜单上大 多是粤菜。虽然菜的味道可能也不错,但却违背了 中泰证券资产管理 扫码进入基本功专栏 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent public fund quarterly reports indicate a significant increase in the electronic industry's allocation, reaching over 25%, marking the highest single-industry allocation in the past fifteen years [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Allocation Insights - The electronic industry's allocation surpassing 25% is notable, as it reflects a trend where public funds have historically struggled to maintain allocations above 20% without subsequent market adjustments [2][5]. - Historical data shows that when public fund allocations to a single industry exceed 20%, it often leads to subsequent pressure on absolute returns, with most instances since 2010 resulting in declines in relative performance [2][5]. - The report from Huatai Securities suggests that the average duration of core asset accumulation is around ten quarters, with current electronic sector allocations slightly above this average [3]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Predictions - The analysis indicates that during periods of improved market risk, sectors with increased allocations have an 86% probability of generating excess returns in the following quarter [3]. - Historical patterns reveal that high allocations often coincide with market changes, and the peak in holdings may be driven more by industry price increases rather than active accumulation [5]. - The electronic sector's current allocation has surpassed previous historical limits, yet it is essential to monitor the underlying fundamentals for potential acceleration in growth [5]. Group 3: Contextual Analysis - The report highlights that while the current allocation in the electronic sector is high, it does not necessarily indicate an immediate need for rebalancing, as the sector may continue to perform well if the fundamentals support it [5][6]. - The analysis serves as a window into market sentiment, providing insights into which sectors are currently attracting more attention from investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points, highlighting market sentiment, structural differentiation, and asset allocation strategies as key themes [2][6][7]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The 4000-point mark is seen as a psychological threshold that enhances investor sentiment and confidence, with its rarity in A-share history contributing to heightened attention [2]. - Historical context shows that the index has only surpassed 4000 points three times, with the current instance being the third since 2007 and 2015, leading to increased emotional volatility among investors [2]. - Recent data from the Zhongtai Asset Management risk monthly report indicates that emotional indicators have shown greater volatility compared to valuation and expectation indicators, suggesting a need for patience in decision-making [3]. Group 2: Structural Differentiation - Unlike previous instances of the index reaching 4000 points characterized by broad market rallies, the current market reflects a more differentiated and structural trend, with certain sectors like technology outperforming while others like coal and banking lag behind [4]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 20%, with Q3 contributing 17.90% of this growth, primarily driven by a few major tech stocks [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on individual stock research rather than broad market trends, as only a few outstanding companies will navigate through market fluctuations successfully [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - As the index approaches 4000 points, overall valuations have risen, leading to increased market volatility and making it more challenging for investors to achieve returns [6]. - The article advocates for a diversified asset allocation strategy to mitigate risks, suggesting that investors should spread their funds across different asset classes to benefit from their uncorrelated returns [6][7]. - Emphasizing the complexity of the investment landscape, the article encourages investors to smooth out portfolio volatility and avoid emotional trading driven by fear or greed [7].

有人说，看懂了房地产，就搞懂了中国经济的一半。 这话也许有出入，却道出了地产行业对于中国经济发展的重要性。 光看2023年，中国房地产年销售额已达到11.7万亿，这个数字几乎接近俄罗斯当年一整年的GDP，超过了 全球140个小国家的GDP总和。这个庞大的数字背后，是上千万的家庭住所及就业岗位。 从拿地到交付，从高周转到烂尾楼，从"456军规"到"三道红线"，这个行业走过了太多弯路，也留下了太 多教训。今天的房地产，依然身处漩涡之中，经历一场前所未有的大洗牌。 不过，尽管整体市场仍在筑底，但一些结构性的变化也让市场看到新的希望。以今年9月为例，百强房企 销售额环比增长22.1%，同比增长0.4%，实现年内首次同比转正。 在这个牵动国家经济的超级行业里，到底藏着什么样的商业逻辑？本期视频将带你走完整个地产产业链， 看懂这个行业从黄金时代到转型阵痛的全过程。视频主要聚焦以下话题： 一个完整的地产项目是如何运转的? 为何10亿只是房地产的"入场券"？ 房地产企业究竟是怎么赚钱？ 为什么高周转模式走不下去？ 未来的房地产可能拼什么？ 什么样的企业更有可能穿越周期...... 如果你喜欢本期视频，或许你还对同系列的这些内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid changes in the world, particularly in the stock market, are largely centered around artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a once-in-a-century opportunity akin to the discovery of electricity [1][10] - Value investing is not fundamentally opposed to benefiting from technological changes, as any field where value can be assessed falls within the scope of value investing, including technology [1][9] Semiconductor Industry - The demand growth in the semiconductor industry is expected to outpace the past decade due to AI development, and the current phase is just the beginning of this technological transformation [4] - The wafer foundry business exemplifies a "value assessable" sector, as the business model remains unchanged despite the arrival of AI, and the demand for high-performance computing is increasing [4][5] - Factors such as high minimum economic scale, high customer trial-and-error costs, and accumulated learning curves contribute to the creation of a competitive moat in the wafer foundry sector [5] Storage Industry - The storage industry is also benefiting from AI technology, with manufacturing and design characterized by high economies of scale and significant customer trial-and-error costs [6] - The relationship between computing and storage is changing due to AI advancements, leading to a faster growth in storage demand while the business model remains stable [6] Analog Chips - The analog chip sector is seen as both assessable in value and capable of sharing in the AI era's benefits, with high customer trial-and-error costs and a low share of downstream costs [8] - The development of AI is expected to increase the demand for analog chips, particularly in AI servers and various applications like robotics and smart glasses [8] Long-term Trends - The slowdown or peak of Moore's Law may help mitigate China's relative disadvantages in semiconductor manufacturing, as the progress in single-chip computing power may not meet growing computational demands [9] - Long-term certainty judgments can lead to the emergence of stable business models and companies with wide moats, aligning with traditional research methods in value investing [9] Investment Philosophy - Value investing does not reject progress or technology but adheres to the principle of assessing value to identify understandable stocks and earn within one's capability [10]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals lead to better investment outcomes [2] - The article introduces two valuation methods: amortized cost method and market value method, highlighting their differences where the former focuses on stability and the latter on directness [3]