Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a zero increase over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP growth of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in producer prices and underlying demand issues [3][4][41]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a negative growth phase since October 2021, marking 39 consecutive months of year-on-year decline by December 2025 [1]. - From 2012 to 2025, there were 111 months of negative PPI, indicating that two-thirds of this period experienced deflation in producer prices [1][4]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained unchanged at 100 by December 2025, reflecting no price increase over 15 years [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. PPI - China's GDP grew from less than 40 trillion yuan in 2010 to over 140 trillion yuan by 2025, a 2.5 times increase, while the broad money supply (M2) increased 3.68 times during the same period [4]. - Despite significant economic growth, the PPI's lack of increase raises questions about the underlying demand and pricing power within the economy [4][41]. Group 3: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to weak demand, particularly after the peak of the real estate market in 2021, which has affected both upstream and downstream price transmission [39][41]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI indicates that a downturn in real estate correlates with a decline in producer prices, as seen in historical data [34][41]. - The inability of upstream price changes to effectively transmit to downstream prices is exacerbated by high competition in the downstream sectors and insufficient demand [20][39]. Group 4: External Influences and Export Dynamics - Export dynamics play a crucial role in influencing midstream product prices, with a significant portion of manufacturing exports being affected by global demand fluctuations [24][26]. - The export price index has seen a notable decline, indicating that reliance on price competition to maintain export volumes may not be sustainable [26][28]. - The overall weak demand in the domestic market, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer confidence, has further constrained PPI recovery [28][39]. Group 5: Recommendations for Economic Policy - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship by expanding effective demand, particularly through increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [41][49]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is suggested as a means to support consumer spending and alleviate overcapacity issues in various industries [41][49]. - The focus should shift towards enhancing consumer income through government policies, which may involve restructuring fiscal spending to prioritize direct transfers to households [41][49].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid fundamentals are essential for successful investment in funds [2] Group 2 - The top five holdings of bond funds are primarily interest rate bonds, but these holdings do not represent the entirety of the fund's portfolio, indicating that bond fund holdings are relatively diversified and that periodic reports should be viewed as references [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of incremental capital as a market confidence indicator and a key factor in assessing market trends, highlighting the challenges in accurately predicting its inflow [1] Group 1: Incremental Capital Estimates - Different research reports provide varying estimates for incremental capital inflow in 2026, with projections ranging from 1.6 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, indicating significant discrepancies [1] - The analysis suggests that understanding the sources and types of capital is more practical than merely estimating total amounts [1] Group 2: 2025 Incremental Capital Breakdown - According to the Guosen Securities strategy report, the incremental capital for 2025 is divided into two phases: the first half sees retail investors transferring 240 billion yuan, foreign capital returning approximately 100 billion yuan, and long-term investments from insurance funds amounting to about 420 billion yuan [2] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see significant inflows from private equity and leveraged trading, with an estimated 700 billion yuan entering the market since July and around 400 billion yuan from private equity funds [2] - The sectors attracting the most capital in the first half include technology and dividend stocks, while the second half sees inflows into non-ferrous metals, electronics, and new energy sectors [2] Group 3: 2026 Main Sources of Incremental Capital - The Huatai Securities strategy report identifies three main sources of incremental capital for 2026: high-risk preference retail funds, medium-low risk preference retail funds, and long-term capital [4] - High-risk preference funds include retail, financing, and private equity funds, while medium-low risk funds consist of maturing fixed deposits with an estimated 8% allocated to non-monetary asset management products [4] - The Huaxin Securities report anticipates public funds, wealth management funds, and insurance funds as the top three sources of incremental capital [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The article suggests that if a slow bull market becomes the prevailing trend, the main sources of incremental capital will likely be insurance and absolute return-focused funds, indicating potential investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of accepting the "uncontrollable" aspects of investing, such as geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes, and focusing on actionable areas like planning, cost optimization, and emotional management [2] - It suggests that investors should concentrate on clear and specific areas that can be influenced, rather than getting distracted by external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The article advocates for diversified asset allocation as a means to achieve stability and peace of mind in investing, even if it may sacrifice some potential high returns [4] - It explains that diversification helps to smooth out the return curve by utilizing the non-synchronous cycles of different assets, reducing the need for constant market monitoring [4] Group 3 - The article recommends establishing reliable information sources to minimize reliance on fragmented social media, which can lead to emotional trading [6] - It suggests a two-step approach: unfollowing sources that create unnecessary emotional responses and curating a list of fact-based information sources to aid in rational decision-making [6] - The focus is on achieving inner peace in investing through self-reflection and proactive measures to filter out noise [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of reflecting on investment decisions made in 2025, highlighting both the challenges and successes experienced throughout the year [2] - The article encourages investors to view their annual investment report not just as a summary of profits and losses, but as a means to recognize their resilience and commitment during market fluctuations [2] - The company expresses gratitude for the trust and support from its clients throughout 2025, indicating a focus on building long-term relationships in the investment landscape [6] Group 2 - The article introduces various rewards for clients who access their annual report, including symbolic gifts like the "Bull Persimmon" ornament, which represents good fortune in the upcoming year [5] - Additional rewards include customized gold banknotes and subscription services for entertainment, aimed at enhancing the overall client experience and promoting a balanced lifestyle [5] - The message reinforces the idea that in the long-term investment journey, maintaining a steady rhythm and composure is more crucial than short-term gains or losses [6]

基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 指数基金的 调仓频率如何? 指数基金调仓主要取决于其 跟踪标的指数的调整节奏。 是,跟着指数调整。指数的样本股通常会定期(如 年度、半年度、季度）或不定期 进行调整,剔除不符合 中泰证券资产管理 扫码进入基本功专栏 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 ...

"反者道之动"，这是现实世界的企业发展特点；而市场中投资者对企业的逻辑推演，却常常是非黑即白的。比 如行业需求扩张，产品供不应求，量价齐升，此时伴随股价上涨的往往是更广阔的需求推演，更激进的份额假 设，以及打开想像空间的"第二增长曲线"逻辑。反过来当需求承压，价格战使得企业利润跌跌不休时，需求的 潜在空间、企业的出色禀赋以及可能的第二增长曲线就全都"消失"了，不仅少有人做关于未来的梦，连现有的 经营水平也要大打折扣。 有一家个锂电池企业我们长期跟踪研究，股价波动也一度达到50%以上，有哪些真正巨大的变化影响了企业价 值吗？渗透率、需求的逐步抬升，规模经济、研发投入带来的超额利润水平在这些年都是稳步兑现，从财报的 结果上来看也呈现出了稳健经营的结果。我个人的感受是，主要的变动源于投资者的关注焦点变化：100倍 PE+的时候，对企业的展望是星辰大海，是2060年碳中和的中局；股价腰斩、15 倍 PE的时候，投资者担心动 力电池的产能过剩和价格战。但其实广阔的市场空间和激烈的市场竞争从来都是该企业发展环境的一部分。 100 倍 PE+的时候，并不是没有竞争，同行的扩产、车企的自建产能规划都已经官宣了；15 倍 PE ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, highlighting its dual attributes of value preservation and risk aversion, especially in the context of ongoing financial, trade, and technological conflicts among major nations [1][11]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Holdings - Global central banks held 12.25 billion ounces of gold in 1964, which decreased to 11.66 billion ounces by 2024, despite significant monetary expansion over the same period [3]. - The price of gold has increased dramatically from $35 per ounce in 1964 to approximately $2,639 per ounce by the end of 2024, representing a nearly 75-fold increase [3]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew from $0.98 trillion in 1964 to $156.67 trillion in 2024, a growth of 159 times, indicating a much faster expansion compared to gold prices [3]. Group 2: Current Gold Reserves and Market Value - By the end of 2024, the market value of central bank gold reserves exceeded $3 trillion, yet this value remains low relative to the total global broad money supply [5]. - The proportion of gold reserves in relation to global broad money has only increased from 4.3% in 1964 to 1.9% in 2024, indicating a significant decline over the decades [5][8]. - The share of foreign exchange reserves in total central bank reserves rose from 31% in 1960 to 90% during 2006-2008, before declining to 77% by 2024, reflecting a shift away from gold [8]. Group 3: Implications for Future Gold Holdings - Since 2022, central banks have been increasing their gold reserves due to concerns over U.S. debt and the weakening dollar, which has been a significant factor driving up gold prices [11]. - The global gold stock has increased by approximately 1.5 times over the past 60 years, yet central banks currently hold only about 17.5% of the total gold stock, suggesting a potential for increased gold accumulation [11]. - China's gold holdings are relatively low, projected to be around 0.74 billion ounces by the end of 2025, which is only 6.3% of global central bank holdings [11]. Group 4: Economic and Geopolitical Considerations - The article notes that the post-World War II era has seen a significant accumulation of debt, with few countries successfully implementing reforms, leading to a reliance on monetary expansion, which supports the rising prices of non-yielding assets like gold [14]. - Despite the decoupling of the dollar from gold post-Bretton Woods, the dollar's international status remains strong, influenced by the U.S. economic position [14]. - The article suggests that to enhance the international status of the renminbi and optimize central bank reserves, China should consider reducing its holdings in U.S. and Japanese government bonds while increasing its gold reserves [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares is attributed to a combination of market sentiment and capital inflow, with expectations for continued upward movement in 2026 [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of a strong start in 2026 is not unique to A-shares, as global markets have also experienced robust beginnings due to factors like liquidity expectations and geopolitical changes [2] - Reports indicate that the influx of capital at the beginning of the year was driven by investors fearing to miss out on potential gains, leading to a rapid increase in market participation [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators show improvement, with the PMI rising above the threshold in December 2025, signaling better production and demand conditions [2] - December 2025 inflation data revealed a CPI increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI showed a narrowing decline, indicating a potential recovery in prices [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has surged, with an emotional index reaching a new high of 98.1 on January 9, 2026, indicating a state of euphoria in the market [4] - The trading volume of small-cap stocks has reached historically high levels, suggesting heightened speculative activity among investors [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Individual investors are encouraged to adopt a more measured approach, as they do not face the same pressures as institutional investors to outperform quickly [4] - The focus should be on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term gains, aligning with the goal of achieving steady returns [4]

买债基时 配点海外债基会更香吗? 从资产配置原理出发,在 持有国内债基基础上,配 置海外债基有两点优势。 是可以赚"不同频"的钱。国内外经济周期和货币 政策步调往往不一致,这种 低相关性能有效分散风 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 2 中泰证券资产管理 扫码进入基本功专栏 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 ...