Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is experiencing a significant shift from hardware to software, marking the beginning of a new phase in 2026, where applications will dominate the market [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, the AI application sector saw a substantial surge, with companies like Yidian Tianxia, Chinese Online, and Tianlong Group achieving a 20% limit-up, while the CSI Media Index and CSI Software Index rose over 9% [2]. - Several funds heavily invested in AI applications also reported significant gains, with the Western Li De Technology Innovation A fund increasing by 14.17% in a single day, driven by strong performances from its holdings [3]. Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - Key catalysts for the recent surge in AI applications include potential acquisitions by major overseas companies, such as the proposed acquisition of Manus, which exceeded market expectations and disrupted the narrative of software dominance by large firms [4]. - The emergence of new business models in the advertising sector, driven by AI, is also contributing to the positive sentiment in the market [4]. - The announcement by Elon Musk to open-source algorithms related to content and ad recommendations is seen as a pivotal moment for the commercialization of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO), which is expected to shift 25% of traditional search engine traffic to AI tools by 2026 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 may be the year when AI applications take precedence, as the industry transitions from infrastructure development to application-focused growth [7][8]. - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in companies with strong data, ecosystem, and scenario barriers, as well as those with stable main businesses that have successfully implemented AI applications [7]. - The potential for AI to enhance business processes and customer experiences is highlighted, with specific focus on sectors like advertising, office software, and new product categories such as AI glasses and smart wearables [8].

1月13日，据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普12日下午在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其 与美国的所有商业往来都将面临25%的关税。该命令即日起生效。 特朗普突然对伊朗"动手"。 当地时间1月12日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，即日起，任何与伊朗伊斯兰共和国开展 商业往来的国家，在与美国进行的任何商业活动中都将被征收25%的关税。特朗普强调，该决定"最终且不可 更改"。受此影响，国际油价短线拉升，布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货均涨超1%。 美股市场方面，三大指数低开高走，标普500指数、道指再度创下历史新高，美股大型科技股多数走强，热门 中概股大幅跑赢美股大盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨超4%，阿里巴巴涨超10%，创2025年8月29日以来最大 升幅。 特朗普宣布：2 5%关税 目前，关于这项关税政策的更多细节尚未明确。 另据央视新闻，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特12日称，面对当前伊朗局势，特朗普认为外交是"首选"方案。 当地时间12日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐就近期伊朗局势举行新闻发布会。 特朗普指出，这项针对伊朗贸易伙伴进口商品的新关税政策即刻生效。 他写道："此命令为最终决定，且具有终局效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meeting has outlined a comprehensive policy package aimed at promoting domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, focusing on enhancing consumer spending capabilities by optimizing personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "double subsidy" policy for personal consumption loans will be optimized, including expanding the range of institutions eligible for subsidies and simplifying the approval process by breaking down data barriers between government departments and financial institutions [1][6] - The initial implementation of the subsidy policy has seen significant engagement from major banks, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China issuing nearly 400 billion yuan in personal consumption loans by the end of November 2025, and Agricultural Bank of China reporting a balance of 1.46 trillion yuan in personal consumption loans, with a growth rate of 9.4% [2] Group 2: Expansion of Eligible Institutions - The current subsidy policy covers 18 national commercial banks and several leading consumer finance companies, with expectations for further expansion to include more regional banks, enhancing the policy's reach [3][4] - Local governments, such as those in Chongqing and Sichuan, have already begun to integrate regional banks into the subsidy framework, demonstrating a trend towards a "national and local subsidy" model that could be adopted by more provinces [4] Group 3: Financial Impact and Recommendations - The consumer finance sector is expected to benefit significantly from the subsidy policy, particularly for smaller banks that serve clients more affected by economic downturns, thus increasing the marginal utility of the subsidies [5] - Recommendations for optimizing the subsidy policy include establishing differentiated subsidy strategies based on regional development levels and specific consumer needs, as well as integrating digital technologies to enhance monitoring and efficiency in fund allocation [6][7]

当地时间1月12日，北约秘书长吕特表示，北约成员国正在讨论并制定下一步措施，以共同保障北极地区安 全。 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 社 扫码下载券中社APP 扫码关注券商中国公众号 quanshangcn qzs.stcn.com 舞中 券中社APP 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 证 券 时 报 》 旗 下 新 媒 体 , 券 商 中 国 对 该 平 台 所 刊 载 的 原 创 内 容 享 有 著 作 权 , 吕特当天在克罗地亚首都萨格勒布与克总理举行的新闻发布会上表示，各成员国都认同保障北极地区安全的重 要性，必须确认北极地区的安全，这是优先事项。 当天，西班牙首相桑切斯会见了到访的希腊总理米佐塔基斯。桑切斯在会面后的发布会上表示，北极地区的防 护应该由欧盟和北约负责。 未 经 授 权 禁 止 转 载 ， 否 则 将 追 究 相 应 法 律 责 任 。 此外，当天总台记者获悉，欧盟负责防务事务的委员库比柳斯在瑞典举行的一次安全会议上表示，如果美国武 力夺取格陵兰岛，北约将不复存在。库比柳斯还表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou Bank has appointed Zhang Jingke, an internal candidate, as the new president, breaking the market's expectation of an external hire, which is seen as a strategic move to ensure continuity in development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - The board of Hangzhou Bank unanimously approved the appointment of Zhang Jingke as president, pending regulatory approval [2]. - Zhang Jingke has over 20 years of experience at Hangzhou Bank, having progressed through various roles from a grassroots employee to senior management [3]. - The internal promotion is expected to maintain strategic stability and motivate internal talent, with all current executives being from the "post-70s" generation [3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus on Technology Finance - Hangzhou Bank has established a vertical organizational structure to enhance its focus on technology finance, leveraging the region's vibrant private economy and rich innovation resources [4]. - Zhang Jingke emphasizes the importance of understanding technology and industry as a core competency for the bank [4]. - The bank's technology finance service model has undergone three iterations since the establishment of its first technology-focused branch in 2009, evolving from a policy-driven model to a venture capital-driven approach [4][5]. Group 3: Current Financial Performance - As of September 2025, Hangzhou Bank's total assets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.67% year-on-year [7]. - The bank reported a total operating income of 28.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 1.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.88 billion yuan, up 14.53% [7]. - The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2025 were 2.31 yuan, with a cash dividend of 0.38 yuan per share, totaling 2.755 billion yuan in cash dividends, reflecting a growth of over 24% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, surpassing 150,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high with a closing price of 156,060 yuan/ton, reflecting a 9% increase [2][3] - The cumulative increase since the low point in June 2025 has exceeded 160%, making lithium carbonate one of the most watched commodities in the market [3] - The core driver of this price surge is the market's reaction to adjustments in export tax rebate policies, leading to expectations of "export rush" behavior [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent rise in lithium carbonate spot prices has reached around 140,000 yuan/ton, with low inventory levels across the supply chain supporting price increases [4] - Anticipation of increased demand in 2026 due to the adjustment of export tax rebates is expected to tighten inventory further, driving prices up [4][5] - The long-term outlook suggests a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with steady growth in electric vehicle sales and potential expansion in energy storage battery demand [5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains optimistic, but there are warnings about potential supply-side elasticity and the risks of profit-taking due to rapid price increases [6][7] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculative trading, reflecting a commitment to maintaining market order and protecting compliant investors [7][8] - The trading environment is characterized by significant price volatility, necessitating caution among market participants [8]

1月12日晚，电视专题片《一步不停歇 半步不退让》第二集《严惩政商勾连腐败》播出，披露了十三届全 国人大华侨委员会原副主任委员、海南省委原书记罗保铭的案情： 反对腐败、建设廉洁政治，是我们党一贯坚持的鲜明政治立场，是党自我革命必须长期抓好的重大政治任 务。要把严惩政商勾连腐败作为攻坚战重中之重，坚决打击以权力为依托的资本逐利行为，坚决防止各种 利益集团、权势团体向政治领域渗透，不断净化政治生态，推动构建亲清统一的新型政商关系，促进经济 社会高质量发展。 十三届全国人大华侨委员会原副主任委员 罗保铭： 我的贪腐犯罪，给海南的营商环境是一个很大的损 害，给海南的政治生态造成严重破坏，也给党的事业、党的形象带来极大的损害。 罗保铭，十三届全国人大华侨委员会原副主任委员，曾长期在海南工作，先后担任省委副书记、省长、省 委书记等职。审查调查发现，围绕着他形成了一张错综复杂的政商勾连网络，多名商人老板、领导干部以 及他的亲属都参与其中。 中央纪委国家监委机关工作人员 康智慧： 罗保铭违纪违法行为时间跨度长、涉及范围广、危害程度深， 政商关系错综复杂，利益链条盘根错节，具有政治问题与经济问题交织、自身腐败与家族式腐败相交织 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple A-share companies in the commercial aerospace and AI sectors have issued risk warnings due to significant stock price increases, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation [1][3][9]. Commercial Aerospace Sector Summary - On January 12, the commercial aerospace index rose over 6%, with over 90 related stocks hitting the daily limit or increasing by more than 10% [3]. - Aerospace companies like Aerospace Huanyu and Leike Defense warned of risks due to stock price surges of 265.82% and 106.67% respectively since late November 2025, significantly outpacing industry and market indices [3][4]. - Aerospace Electronic reported a 194.40% increase in stock price since late November 2025, highlighting a disconnect from fundamental changes in the company [4]. - China Satellite's stock rose 179.16% since early December 2025, with warnings of potential rapid declines due to market sentiment [5]. - Companies like Zai Sheng Technology and Zhongke Xingtou noted that their aerospace-related revenues are minimal, with significant uncertainty regarding future orders and contributions to overall performance [6][8]. AI Sector Summary - On January 12, AI concept stocks surged, with over 150 stocks hitting the daily limit or increasing by more than 10% [9]. - Companies like Hande Information and Zhuoyi Information highlighted that their AI products are still in the early stages of market introduction, with uncertain revenue contributions [10][11]. - BlueFocus reported that AI-related revenue is currently a small portion of overall income, and stock price increases have significantly diverged from fundamental performance [9][10]. - The GEO business of companies like Bo Rui Chuan Bo has not generated any revenue yet, indicating high uncertainty in profitability [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant price increases, with gold and silver reaching new highs, prompting concerns about trading risks associated with related products [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4,650 per ounce, marking a nearly 3% increase in a single day and a cumulative rise of over $300 in January [2][6]. - Silver also saw substantial gains, with prices rising over 8% in a single day, and the spot silver price exceeding $84 per ounce, setting a new historical high [2][6]. Group 2: Fund Adjustments - In response to increasing market volatility and high premium rates in the secondary market, several fund companies have implemented measures such as suspending subscriptions and adjusting redemption arrangements to manage risks [2][3]. - For instance, E Fund announced it would suspend subscriptions for its gold ETF starting January 16, citing the need to protect the interests of fund shareholders and ensure stable operations [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Overview - As of now, the total scale of seven gold ETFs tracking SGE gold 9999 has reached 223.68 billion yuan, with E Fund's gold ETF holding 37.91 billion yuan, ranking second among similar products [4]. - The National Investment Silver LOF also announced a temporary suspension of trading, indicating that the current high premium reflected in the secondary market is not sustainable, urging investors to be aware of associated risks [4]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Institutions are increasingly optimistic about the outlook for precious metals, with geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties providing support for gold prices [7]. - However, there are warnings about short-term risks, particularly in the silver market, where price volatility is expected to increase, necessitating close monitoring of Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments [7].

★ 宏观动态 ★ 商务部发布关于中欧电动汽车案磋商进展的通报 据中国商务部网站，为落实中欧领导人会晤共识，妥善解决欧盟对华电动汽车案，中欧双方本着相互尊重的态 度，进行了多轮磋商。双方一致认为，有必要向对欧盟出口纯电动汽车的中国出口商，提供关于价格承诺的通 用指导，以便中国出口商可通过更加实用、有针对性且符合世贸组织规则的方式，解决相关关注。为此，欧方 将发布《关于提交价格承诺申请的指导文件》，并在文件中确认，欧方将秉持非歧视原则，根据世贸组织规则 有关规定，对每一项价格承诺申请，适用相同法律标准，并以客观和公正的方式进行评估。这充分体现了中欧 双方的对话精神和磋商成果。中欧双方有能力、有意愿，在世贸组织规则框架下，通过对话磋商妥善化解分 歧，维护中欧及全球汽车产业链供应链稳定。这不仅有利于中欧经贸关系健康发展，也有利于维护以规则为基 础的国际贸易秩序。 摩根大通：AI需求井喷将推动基建与机器人领域并购浪潮 摩根大通指出，人工智能需求的爆发式增长及海量资本涌入AI产业，正推动电力系统、热管理、机器人及工 业软件领域形成并购热点。据该行预测，全球对数据中心、AI基础设施及相关电力供应的投资规模预计将达5 万亿— ...