在全球贸易摩擦加剧的大背景下，野村警告，全球经济正在驶入未知水域，市场对政策风险的低 估或将成为下半年的一大隐患。 在周四举行的一场面向中国媒体的在线交流会上， 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席 主管Rob Subbaraman 表示， 全球经济正步入一个充满不确定性的"未知领域"。 他指出，从美 联储的政策路径到特朗普政府带来的经济政策变化，再到地缘政治风险升温，全球市场正面临自 金融危机以来少见的多重风险叠加。 Rob警告， 美国将在下半年面临 "通胀回升+增长放缓"的典型滞胀压力，美联储将非常谨慎，直 到12月才会降息，且降息幅度可能低于市场预期。 他特别提醒，目前美国企业因抢进口库存偏高， 关税尚未真正反映到消费者物价中，但随着Q3 企业补库，进口成本上升势必传导至通胀，预计四季度美国核心CPI将反弹至3.3%。 Rob表示： " 我们将在未来几周进入一个关键时刻 ，因为在接下来的几周里，我认为我们将开始看到更多证据表 明关税正在影响美国的经济数据。" 对于特朗普提出任命"影子美联储主席"的想法，Rob认为， 即将到来的关键人事变动可能为此提 供实际通道 ： 明年1月底，美联储理事Adrian ...

京东则于7月11日下午发文宣布， 京东外卖请全国用户吃品质小龙虾， 文中说明， 认准京东App"秒送"频道， 品质小龙虾 单份仅售16.18元 ， 每晚10万份， 无套路不拼不凑。 修正一周之后，新一轮的"外卖补贴大战"在本周末重燃战火。 社交媒体上充斥着低价甚至免单的咖啡奶茶订单 。这场由阿里巴巴旗下淘宝闪购升级的战火，正迫使行业巨头美团、京东悉数卷入。 澎湃新闻记者发现， 美团和淘宝闪购分别宣布周末补贴继续，美团发文称"周六，快乐继续"，淘宝闪购则表示"188元大券包，五顿我全包！" 澎湃报道称， 7月12日，不少网友在社交平台晒出新一轮的外卖补贴"战绩"，包括低价甚至是 免单的咖啡茶饮。 据网友反馈，美团在这个周末送出了 多个线 下咖啡茶饮的通兑券，但需要自取 ， 淘宝闪购则依旧发放188元的红包 ，包括满38减18.8的午餐外卖红包，不过" 免单卡"仍需要消费者随机抽取获得 。 见闻君在微博上也见到多位网友分享的免单的咖啡茶饮券。 一位美团众包骑手告诉澎湃新闻记者，接近中午，他看到 上海的沪上阿姨等知名奶茶门店已经开始爆单。 澎湃新闻记者还了解到， 阿里试图再造一个全民参与的促销节日"超级星期六" ： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant turnaround in the performance of Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) in the first half of the year, with a projected net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of over 1100% [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan's profit surge is attributed not to pig prices but to increased output and effective cost control [3]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 38.394 million pigs in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 18.54%, with a notable 168% increase in piglet sales [26]. - The average breeding cost for Muyuan in 2024 is projected to be 14 yuan per kilogram, with costs decreasing to 12-12.1 yuan per kilogram by June, nearing the annual target of 12 yuan per kilogram [17][18]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the pig farming industry, with government efforts to reduce inventory, capacity, and optimize structure [4][5]. - The number of breeding sows has been adjusted, with a reduction in the breeding sow inventory to stabilize supply and ensure food safety [33][41]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale operations, with over 70% of pig farming now being industrialized, enhancing capital reserves and risk management capabilities [45]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig price is expected to stabilize after a decline, with the market anticipating a recovery due to the reduction in breeding sow inventory and overall weight control of pigs [7][43]. - The prices of key feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal have decreased, contributing to the overall reduction in breeding costs [22][23]. - The industry is likely to see narrow fluctuations in the pig cycle, with profitability increasingly dependent on companies' cost control capabilities rather than price volatility [50].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple favorable factors are driving risk assets higher, with Goldman Sachs traders predicting a "melt-up" market this summer, driven by strong momentum in AI, bank stocks, Nvidia, Chinese equities, Bitcoin, and copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is not in a position for a significant downturn unless an external shock occurs, suggesting a strong forward-looking market that should follow price trends rather than overanalyze macro signals [2] - The U.S. economy is in the mid-to-late stage of the business cycle with no signs of recession and strong earnings growth, while interest rate cuts are still anticipated [3] - Market sentiment is shifting positively but has not yet reached a euphoric state, indicating further room for growth [4] - Structural cycles show low macro volatility combined with a digital productivity boom, reminiscent of the 1990s environment [5] Group 2: Risk Appetite and Stock Performance - Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator shows one of the most rapid recoveries in history, similar to the performance seen in 2020 [6] - Cyclical stocks are expected to outperform defensive stocks, with bank stocks showing particularly strong performance, indicating that they are a key indicator of economic health [8] Group 3: Inflation and Growth Dynamics - Real inflation is broadly cooling, and the market has moved past growth concerns, with inflation still being a primary risk for most clients [9] - The combination of slowing inflation and accelerating earnings is expected to lead to an expansion in valuation multiples, creating a favorable environment for the stock market, especially in a low volatility context [9] - Current volatility conditions resemble those of the late 2018 to early 2019 bull market setup, with low policy rates suppressing volatility and maintaining ample liquidity [9] Group 4: Emerging Markets and Global Trends - Signs of recovery are observed in China and emerging markets, with the current environment likened to the emerging market rebound from 2009 to 2015, albeit with different leading sectors focused on technology, AI, and local themes [10] - Breakthrough signals in the Chinese stock market and Bitcoin indicate rising risk appetite and the formation of a re-inflation theme in emerging markets, benefiting countries like Poland and Greece from cyclical and reform-driven tailwinds [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce its balance sheet size, but not as aggressively as some observers suggest, according to Waller [1][2]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Management - Waller proposes reducing bank reserves from $3.26 trillion to approximately $2.7 trillion, which would bring the total balance sheet down to $5.8 trillion from the current $6.7 trillion [1]. - The minimum "adequate" level of reserves is crucial for estimating how much the Fed can shrink its balance sheet without disrupting the overnight funding market [1]. - Critics argue that the Fed's balance sheet has grown too quickly and should return to pre-financial crisis levels, which were around $800 billion [2]. Group 2: Duration Matching Strategy - Waller highlights that the Fed's balance sheet has a mismatch in the duration structure of assets, with too high a proportion of long-term assets [3]. - He advocates for a "duration matching strategy," suggesting that about half of the Treasury investments should be in short-term bills [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Policy - Waller believes the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive and may support a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, contingent on continued inflation decline [6]. - He has consistently advocated for lowering the policy rate since November 2023, arguing that tariffs will cause temporary price increases but not sustained inflation [6]. Group 4: Waller's Position and Recognition - Waller is considered a strong candidate for the next Fed chair, recognized for his data-driven approach to monetary policy [7]. - His balanced stance, neither hawkish nor dovish, has earned him broad recognition in both market and policy circles [7].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has acquired Canadian AI startup CentML for over $400 million, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities and talent pool [2][14]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Nvidia's acquisition price for CentML is over $400 million, with the base purchase estimated at over $300 million and additional payments tied to performance targets [14]. - CentML was founded by a team led by a 95-born Chinese PhD, focusing on reducing AI training costs through software solutions [3][4]. - The acquisition includes 19 employees, including four co-founders, who will join Nvidia [12]. Group 2: CentML's Technology and Impact - CentML's core technology, Hidet, acts as a "translator" between AI models and chips, potentially increasing inference speed by up to 8 times and significantly lowering computational costs [7][10]. - The technology is expected to be integrated into Nvidia's TensorRT inference platform, enhancing its performance in edge computing and autonomous driving [11]. Group 3: Funding and Valuation - CentML has completed multiple funding rounds, including a $3.5 million Pre-seed round and a $27 million seed round, achieving a post-money valuation of $300 million [8][9]. - Prior to the acquisition, CentML had raised approximately $30.9 million in venture capital, indicating a strong return for its investors [15]. Group 4: Talent Acquisition in AI Industry - Nvidia's recent acquisitions, including CentML, are part of a broader strategy to secure top AI talent, with the company reportedly acquiring more firms in 2024 than in the previous four years combined [22]. - The competition for AI talent is intensifying, with other tech giants like Meta also actively recruiting top researchers from leading institutions [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to increase investments in instant retail and food delivery services in the coming quarters, which will significantly impact short-term profitability, but these factors are already reflected in the stock price. The strong growth momentum in cloud computing and leading position in AI provide long-term value support [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Position - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba but lowers the target price from $176 to $150, indicating a potential upside of 38.9% from the current stock price of $107.99 [1]. - Since April 2024, competition in food delivery and instant retail has intensified, with Meituan launching a three-year support plan worth 100 billion RMB and JD.com initiating a one-year subsidy project worth 10 billion RMB [1][2]. - Alibaba's food delivery strategy was launched later, with a one-year subsidy plan worth 500 billion RMB starting on July 2 [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Growth - Alibaba's market share in food delivery and instant retail has rapidly increased from over 20% in 2024 to 36% by July 5, 2025, while Meituan holds 55% and JD.com 9% [2]. - This growth is attributed to the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Taobao and Tmall, leadership consolidation, aggressive subsidy strategies, and traffic support [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - HSBC has raised revenue forecasts for Alibaba for FY26-28 by 3-8%, reflecting accelerated growth in instant retail and food delivery orders, but has lowered profit expectations by 7-22% [9]. - For FY26, Alibaba is expected to incur losses of 2.7 RMB per order in food delivery and 3.7 RMB per order in instant shopping, with an overall loss of 55 billion RMB in local life services [9][10]. - The peak of investment is anticipated in the September quarter, with normalization expected in the second half of FY26 [9]. Group 4: Cloud Computing and AI Outlook - HSBC remains optimistic about Alibaba's cloud computing prospects, forecasting over 20% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue for FY26, driven by strong AI demand [10][16]. - Although there may be quarterly fluctuations in cloud business gross margins, they are expected to maintain a high single-digit level [10]. - In the generative AI infrastructure as a service (GenAI IaaS) market, Alibaba ranks first with a market share of 23.5% in the second half of 2024, benefiting from its leading scale, strong product capabilities, and large enterprise customer base [16].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of a controlling stake in Upwind New Materials by Zhiyuan Robotics marks a significant move towards establishing a humanoid robotics company on the STAR Market, potentially positioning it as the first humanoid robot stock in A-shares [3][4][15]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - On July 9, Upwind New Materials announced that Zhiyuan Robotics, through its controlled entity Zhiyuan Hengyue, will acquire at least 63.62% of its shares for no less than 1.996 billion yuan [1][2]. - Following the transaction, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Upwind New Materials will change to Zhiyuan Hengyue and Deng Taihua [2]. - The market reacted positively, with Upwind New Materials hitting the daily limit up on the announcement day [6]. Group 2: Future Listing Potential - If the acquisition is successful, Upwind New Materials could become the first humanoid robotics company listed on the STAR Market [3]. - There is speculation about whether Upwind New Materials will serve as a future listing platform for Zhiyuan Robotics, enhancing its position in the A-share market [4][15]. - Zhiyuan Robotics has a valuation of 15 billion yuan, significantly higher than Upwind New Materials' 3.1 billion yuan market cap, creating substantial market expectations [13][14]. Group 3: Paths to Listing - Three potential paths for Zhiyuan Robotics to achieve a public listing through Upwind New Materials are identified: reverse merger, restructuring after a 36-month waiting period, and gradual asset injection [11][28]. - The reverse merger path faces challenges, including stringent financial requirements and a lack of precedents in the STAR Market [19][21]. - The restructuring option would require a waiting period of 36 months, raising concerns about the future market conditions for the robotics industry [23][27]. - Gradual asset injection could avoid the classification of a reverse merger, but it also presents challenges regarding the timing and industry synergy [28][38]. Group 4: Financial Implications - The acquisition involves a total consideration of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, funded through Zhiyuan Robotics' own capital and acquisition loans [50]. - Although leveraging is involved, the transaction is expected to enhance Zhiyuan Robotics' financing capabilities post-acquisition [52]. - The potential for stock pledge financing could arise as Upwind New Materials' value increases, providing low-cost financing options for Zhiyuan Robotics [53]. Group 5: Market Context - The current stringent IPO review process in the A-share market may lead early-stage tech companies to consider similar acquisition strategies as a viable path to public listing [54]. - Recent cases of innovative acquisitions in the market suggest a growing trend towards such strategies, although the success of these operations remains uncertain [55].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of extreme heat on travel preferences in China, highlighting a shift towards cooler destinations as a new necessity for summer travel [20][21]. Group 1: Travel Trends - There is a significant increase in hotel bookings and ticket sales in cooler regions like Jilin Province, with hotel reservations up by 35%, car rentals by 96%, and ticket sales by 122% compared to last year [22]. - Popular destinations have shifted from traditional summer spots like Sanya and Xiamen to cooler areas such as Changbai Mountain and Yanji, indicating a change in consumer behavior driven by the need for comfort [23][24]. - The demand for cooler travel experiences has led to a surge in prices for accommodations in these regions, with some prices reaching as high as 3,054 yuan per night [30][32]. Group 2: Industry Response - The hospitality industry is adapting to the heat by promoting night tourism, with many museums and attractions extending their hours to attract visitors during cooler evenings [46][49]. - Indoor attractions, such as theme parks and science museums, have become popular as they provide a refuge from the heat, with operators focusing on customer comfort over immediate profit [54][55]. - Marketing strategies have shifted to emphasize the coolness of destinations, with slogans highlighting low temperatures as a key selling point [57]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The article notes that extreme heat is not just a seasonal issue but a growing trend that will affect travel planning and industry strategies in the long term [60][61]. - The changing climate is prompting a reevaluation of travel policies and practices, as families seek to avoid the heat while still enjoying vacations [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].